8 March, 2018 FRO FROM RESEARCH DESK Currency Pair Close % Change Currency Pivot Levels OI % Change Prev. OI %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 65.03-0.17 2.02-4.22 65.1300 65.0725 64.9850 EURINR 80.89 0.33 1.5-0.23 81.0183 80.9017 80.7533 GBPINR 90.24-0.17-3.75 4.32 90.5333 90.3167 90.0083 JPYINR 61.65 0.31 2.74-13.58 61.7267 61.6333 61.5367 Cross Currency Update Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index 89.56 0.00 EURUSD 1.2411 0.06 GBPUSD 1.3900 0.09 JPYUSD 106.09-0.04 USDINR 26 March, 2018 Expiry Option Update Options LTP %Chg OI %Chg OI CE 65.50 0.135-28.95 189021 0.1775 CE 65.00 0.315-20.25 254314 0.3875 CE 64.50 0.63-13.4 65862 0.735 CE 64.00 1.075-9.09 50809 1.18 PE 65.50 0.5875 14.08 78421 0.61 PE 65.00 0.275 14.58 154354 0.2975 PE 64.50 0.0975 8.33 126530 0.1075 PE 64.00 0.03 9.09 122146 0.035 Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating negative move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate (March 7, 2018) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91-0731-4262718 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 64.9627 90.3371 80.7486 61.5500 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( March Future) Dollar/rupee ended at one-week low Wednesday on selling by exporters as greenback remained weak against other major currencies on concerns over a potential trade squabble led by US. The resignation of Cohn, a key advocate for free trade in the US government, triggering concerns that Washington may go ahead with import tariffs and risk a trade war. Technical, USDINR has stalled its recent bullish trend and retreated 0.17% at 65.042. On the EOD chart, pair has breached its immediate support 65.10 which creating probability for downside move towards 64.90 and below. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 65.50 breaks above only will expect to test 65.85. Recommendation: LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 65.03 65.25 65.00-64.90 65.50 EURINR (March Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical EUR/INR traded up Wednesday on global weakness in the greenback as investors turned cautious regarding possible trade war after US President's economic advisor resignation. Meanwhile, European Central Bank is scheduled to release its monetary policy on Thursday. Technical, EURINR retreated from the day high 81.05 and settled at 88.87 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of spinning top candle stick which creating probability for trend reversal. Next upside move could expect above 81.10. Recommendation LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 80.89 80.85-80.90 80.60-80.40 81.10 0
GBPINR(March Future) Succinct Summary of Previous Day&Technical Pound/Rupee traded down Wednesday as investors booked their long term profits amid uncertainty over Brexit. Technical, GBPINR retreated from the day high 90.6250 and settled at 90.2250. On the EOD chart, pair found support above its previous day low and formed small bullish candle stick. On the upside, massive resistance is seen at 90.35 above it only could test 91.50-92.00 levels. Recommendation : LTP Buy around Target Stop loss 90.24 90.20-90.25 90.70-90.90 90.15 JPYINR (March Future) Yen safe haven yen strengthened on Wednesday and the dollar sank to two week lows against a currency basket as the resignation of President Donald Trump s top economic advisor fueled fears over a looming trade war. Technical, JPYINR able to trade above its previous day close and settled at 61.63, up 0.31%. On the EOD chart, JPYINR trading on verge of its strong resistance 62.00 which is coincided with 261.8% Fibonacci Retracement and pair would need to break above in order to test 62.50 and above, else failure of the break may appears to take correction towards 61.50-61.00 again. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around 61.80-61.90 Stop loss 61.65 Target 61.50-61.00 62.00
EURUSD (March Future) Euro/dollar traded up Wednesday on global weakness in the greenback as investors turned cautious regarding possible trade war after US President's economic advisor resignation. Technical, EURUSD remained slightly positive yesterday but after hitting day high 1.2444 retreated towards 1.2411. Intraday price action created a "long-tailed" doji candle which indicating indecision in the market ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision. GBPUSD (March Future) Pound/dollar traded down Wednesday as investors booked their long term profits amid uncertainty over Brexit. Technical, GBPUSD retreated from the day high and settled at 1.3900 levels. Today, Pair would need to break above 1.3950 in order to test 1.3980-1.4020, else failure of the break could create probability for sell on rise and it may test 1.3900-1.3850.
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today Euro zone economy grew by 0.6 percent in the final quarter of last year, European statistics agency Euro stat confirmed on Wednesday, ensuring that the single currency bloc expanded at its fastest rate in more than decade last year. U.K. House prices increased 1.8% on year in three months to February, slower than the 2.2% rise registered in January. This was the weakest rate since March 2013. Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index moved to -0.77 in the week ended March 2, a level not seen since the week of May 19, 2017. The index was -0.78 in the prior week. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 12:30am USD Beige Book - - - 1:30am USD Consumer Credit m/m 17.5B 18.4B Negative 5:20am JPY Bank Lending y/y 2.40% 2.40% Neutral JPY Current Account 1.76T 1.48T Positive JPY Final GDP Price Index y/y 0.00% 0.00% Neutral JPY Final GDP q/q 0.20% 0.10% Positive 5:31am GBP RICS House Price Balance 7.00% 8.00% Negative Tentative CNY Trade Balance -70B 136B Negative Tentative CNY USD-Denominated Trade Balance -2.3B 20.3B Negative 10:30am JPY Economy Watchers Sentiment 50.60 49.90 Positive 12:30pm EUR German Factory Orders m/m -1.90% 3.80% Negative 6:00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y - -2.80% - 6:15pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 0.00% 0.00% Neutral 7:00pm EUR ECB Press Conference - - - USD Unemployment Claims 220K 210K Negative 9:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage -58B -78B Negative Impact: HighLowMedium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar.Technical Chart Source: TickerNews Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com*dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com, Reuters & ticker news.
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