ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST CONSUMER INDEX 1/2/5 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:3 p.m. Tuesday, Jan. 4, 25 Consumer Confidence Starts 25 at Precisely its Long-Term Average Consumer confidence starts out the New Year in middling shape, exactly matching its average in 19 years of weekly polls, but down a bit in the last few weeks. The ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index stands at -9 on its scale of +1 to -1 this first week of 25. That s slipped from a recent high of -5 the week before last and is now back to its late-november level. Co-sponsorship of the index changed this week, with the Washington Post replacing Money magazine. The index remains the same methodologically. The ABC/Post CCI is composed of Americans ratings of the national economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. This week 41 percent say the economy's in good shape and 38 percent call it a good time to buy things. As usual, more, 58 percent, rate their own finances positively. Each is very close to its average last year, as well as its average since the index began in late 1985. ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Consumer Confidence Since 24-5 -1-15 -2-25 1/4/4 1/18/4 2/1/4 2/15/4 2/29/4 3/14/4 3/28/4 4/11/4 4/25/4 5/9/4 5/23/4 6/6/4 6/2/4 7/4/4 7/18/4 8/1/4 8/15/4 8/29/4 9/12/4 9/26/4 1/1/4 1/24/4 11/7/4 11/21/4 12/5/4 12/19/4 1/2/5
ABC News/Washington Post CCI Positive ratings of: This week Last week 24 avg. 19-yr. avg. National economy 41% 43 38 4 Buying climate 38 39 39 39 Personal finances 58 58 57 57 Consumer Comfort Index -9-7 -11-9 TREND The index averaged -11 last year, an improvement from its -19 average across 23. It was a bumpy ride, ranging from lows of -22 last March and -2 in June to a high of +3 last Jan. 18. Confidence has had far better years, with the index averaging +24 or higher in 1998, 1999 and 2. But it s also been much worse, averaging -44 in 1992 and -37 in 1991 and 1993. ABC/Post CCI Today -9 Last week -7 Two weeks ago -5 24 high -3 Jan. 18 24 low -22 March 14 24 average -11 23 average -19 22 average -11 2 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, 2 +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-5 Record low Average since 12/85-9 4 3 2 ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index Weekly tracking results since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ +38 1 Recession starts 3/1-1 -2-3 -4 Recession starts 7/9-5 -6 12/8/1985 12/8/1986 12/8/1987 12/8/1988 12/8/1989 12/8/199 12/8/1991 12/8/1992 12/8/1993 12/8/1994 12/8/1995 12/8/1996 12/8/1997 12/8/1998 12/8/1999 12/8/2 12/8/21 12/8/22 12/8/23 12/8/24
GROUPS Confidence as usual is stronger among better-off Americans. The index is +41 among higher-income people while -5 among those with the lowest incomes, +5 among college graduates while -37 among high-school dropouts, -4 among whites but -35 among blacks and among men while -17 among women. The index this week is worst in the Northeast (-19). And as was the case all last year, it s far higher among Republicans (+3), than independents (-18) or Democrats (-31). ABC News/Washington Post CCI: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December 1985 9 8 7 6 Personal Finances 5 4 Buying Climate 3 2 1 1/19/86 1/12/86 7/5/87 3/27/88 12/18/88 9/17/89 6/1/9 National Economy 3/3/91 11/24/91 8/16/92 5/9/93 1/3/94 1/23/94 7/16/95 4/7/96 12/29/96 9/21/97 6/14/98 3/7/99 11/28/99 8/2/ 5/13/1 2/3/2 1/27/2 7/2/3 4/11/4 1/2/5 Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Post CCI: NATIONAL ECONOMY Forty-one percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good; it was 43 percent last week. The highest was 8 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 41 3 38 59 36 23 Avg. since 12/85 4 3 37 6 4 2 PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-eight percent say their own finances are excellent or good, unchanged from last week. The best was 7 percent on Aug. 3, 1998, matched in January 2. The worst was 42 percent on March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 58 7 51 42 28 14 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 52 43 3 13
BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-eight percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 39 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2. The worst was 2 percent in fall 199. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 38 3 35 62 4 22 Avg. since 12/85 39 3 36 61 41 2 METHODOLOGY Interviews for the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week s results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1, adults in the four weeks ending Jan. 2, 25. The results have a three-point error margin. Field work by ICR- International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are added and divided by three. The index can range from +1 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -1 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by Dalia Sussman. ABC News polls can be found online at http://abcnews.go.com/us/pollvault/. Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-619.
1/2/5 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -9-7 -8-12 -7-3 -22-11 State of Economy -18-14 -18-32 -16-12 -42-24 Personal Finances 16 16 16 2 14 22 4 14 Buying Climate -24-22 -22-24 -18-14 -32-22 ------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men 4 1-2 1 14-15 -2 Women -17-16 -16-2 -13-1 -28-19 Age: 18-34 -3-3 1-11 -5 3-23 -9 35-44 -12-4 -8-14 11-29 -9 45-54 -9-1 -15-11 -1 1-23 -1 55-64 -11-17 -16-14 -12 3-34 -13 65+ -14-17 -1-7 -22 2-33 -14 Income: Under $15K -5-58 -35-45 -57-35 -68-53 $15K To $24.9K -49-43 -38-37 -3-21 -61-37 $25K To $39.9K -22-26 -21-27 -2-2 -44-23 $4K To $49.9K -1 4-12 -2 5 27-29 -7 Over $5K 22 34 21 11 23 35 7 2 $5K To $74.9K 1 28-3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A $75K To $99.9K 21 26 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Over $1K 41 5 48 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Region: Northeast -19-12 -9-1 -9-4 -27-15 Midwest -7-1 -19-1 -2 7-29 -12 South -5-5 4-12 -6 4-21 -9 West -8 1-13 -13 9 9-21 -7 Race: White -4-1 -3-9 -2 3-19 -5 Black -35-4 -32-28 -36-2 -59-39 Politics: Republican 3 33 26 37 29 47 17 34 Democrat -31-37 -37-4 -3-28 -47-38 Independent -18-1 -8-22 -9-2 -4-19 Education: < High School -37-34 -21-4 -34-21 -6-4 High Sch. Grad. -17-17 -19-17 -19-2 -32-16 College + 5 1 4 2 12 14-1 3 Home: Own 1 4 1-6 7-16 -2 Rent -34-32 -3-29 -23-19 -46-3 Marital Status: Single -15-11 -16-12 -15-8 -29-19 Married 4 4 3-5 8 15-15 2 Sep/Wid/Div -33-28 -28-31 -3-21 -43-32 Employ. Status: Full-Time 5 1-2 1 6 12-16 1 Part-Time -15-16 -4-2 -34-14 Not Employed -24-24 -17-23 -24-16 -36-24