ABC NEWS/MONEY MAGAZINE CONSUMER INDEX 8/31/3 EMBARGOED FOR RELEASE AFTER 6:3 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 2, 23 Consumer Confidence Stays Still, Despite Rising Gas Prices Consumer confidence stayed flat this week, but above its average for the year and holding tough in the face of rapidly rising gasoline prices. The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on ratings of current economic conditions, stands at -18 on its scale of +1 to -1. It s been essentially the same (-16 to -18) for six weeks, despite a 23-cent increase in the average price of a gallon of regular gas in the same period. Despite that jump at the pump, 37 percent of Americans say it s a good time to buy things about average for the year (36 percent) and nearly matching this poll s 17-year average, 39 percent. That s not always the case; in early 21, for instance, as gas prices gained 18 cents, ratings of the buying climate worsened by 1 points. Consumer Confidence 22-23 5-5 -1 Fall of Baghdad -15 1/2/2 2/1/2 3/3/2 3/24/2 4/14/2 5/5/2 5/26/2 6/16/2 7/7/2 7/28/2 8/18/2 9/8/2 9/29/2 1/2/2 11/1/2 12/1/2 Start of war 12/22/2 1/12/3 2/2/3 2/23/3 3/16/3 4/6/3 4/27/3 5/18/3 6/8/3 6/29/3 7/2/3 8/1/3 8/31/3 In addition to the buying climate, the index is based on public ratings of the national economy (3 percent rate it positively, a point off its 23 high but 11 points below average) and personal finances (56 percent rate theirs positively, just a point off average). -2-25 -3
ABC News/Money magazine poll Positive ratings of: This week Last week 23 high 23 low 17-yr. avg. National economy 3% 31 31 21 41 Buying climate 37 38 41 32 39 Personal finances 56 56 6 52 57 Consumer Comfort Index -18-17 -15-28 -9 TREND The index, which began in December 1985, has a lifetime average of -9. It peaked at +38 in January 2 and bottomed out at -5 in February 1992. It's averaged -21 so far this year. 4 3 2 Consumer Confidence Index Weekly Tracking Results Since December 1985 Record High 1/16/ +38 1 Recession starts 3/1-1 -2-3 -4 Recession starts 7/9-5 -6 12/8/1985 6/8/1986 12/8/1986 6/8/1987 12/8/1987 6/8/1988 12/8/1988 6/8/1989 12/8/1989 6/8/199 12/8/199 6/8/1991 12/8/1991 6/8/1992 12/8/1992 6/8/1993 12/8/1993 6/8/1994 12/8/1994 6/8/1995 12/8/1995 6/8/1996 12/8/1996 6/8/1997 12/8/1997 6/8/1998 12/8/1998 6/8/1999 12/8/1999 6/8/2 12/8/2 6/8/21 12/8/21 6/8/22 12/8/22 6/8/23 ABC/Money Index Today -18 Last week -17 Recent low -28 March 23 Recent high +1 March, April 22 23 average -21 To date 22 average -11 21 average +4 2 average +29 Best full year 1992 average -44 Worst full year Jan. 16, 2 +38 Record high Feb. 9, 1992-5 Record low Average since 12/85-9 GROUPS As usual, confidence is higher among better-off Americans. The index is +3 among people in higher-income households, compared with -51 in the lowest; -1 among
college graduates while -54 among high-school dropouts; and -14 among whites but -43 among blacks. It s -6 among men while -28 among women, and +13 among Republicans, while -26 among independents and -39 among Democrats. The index in the South, -1, continues above its 12-month average of -19. Last week it was -6, a 12-month high for that region. In the West (-17), Midwest (-2) and Northeast (-28), the index remains close to the 12-month averages. Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC/Money index: Positive Ratings of Individual Gauges Since December 1985 9 8 7 Personal Finances 6 5 4 Buying Climate 3 2 1 National Economy 5/25/86 11/16/86 5/1/87 11/1/87 4/24/88 1/16/88 4/16/89 1/8/89 4/1/9 9/23/9 3/17/91 9/8/91 3/1/92 8/23/92 2/14/93 8/8/93 1/3/94 7/24/94 1/15/95 7/9/95 12/31/95 6/23/96 12/15/96 6/8/97 11/3/97 5/24/98 11/15/98 5/9/99 1/31/99 4/23/ 1/15/ 4/8/1 9/3/1 3/24/2 9/15/2 3/9/3 8/31/3 NATIONAL ECONOMY Thirty percent of Americans rate the nation's economy as excellent or good; it was 31 percent last week, matching its high for the year. The highest was 8 percent Jan. 16, 2. The lowest was seven percent in late 1991 and early 1992. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 3 2 28 7 44 26 Avg. since 12/85 41 4 37 59 4 2 PERSONAL FINANCES Fifty-six percent rate their own finances as excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 7 percent Aug. 3, 1998, and matched in January 2. The worst was 42 percent March 14, 1993. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. NET Not good Poor This week 56 5 51 44 29 15 Avg. since 12/85 57 5 53 43 3 12
BUYING CLIMATE Thirty-seven percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 38 percent last week. The best was 57 percent Jan. 16, 2. The worst was 2 percent in fall 199. Pos. NET Excel. Good Neg. net Not good Poor This week 37 3 34 63 43 2 Avg. since 12/85 39 3 36 61 41 2 METHODOLOGY - The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index represents a rolling average based on telephone interviews with a random sample of about 1, adults nationwide each month. This week's results are based on 1,6 interviews in the month ending Aug. 31, 23, and have an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa. The ABC/Money index is derived by subtracting the negative response to each index question from the positive response to that question. The three resulting numbers are then added and divided by three. The index can range from +1 (everyone positive on all three measures) to -1 (all negative on all three measures). The survey began in December 1985. Analysis by David Morris. ABC News polls can be found at ABCNEWS.com on the Internet, at: <http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/pollvault/pollvault.html> Media contact: Cathie Levine, (212) 456-4934 or Lisa Finkel, (212) 456-619. 8/31/3 This Last 4 Wks 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 12 Mo 12 Mo 12 Mo Week Week Ago Ago Ago High Low Avg ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Group -------- GENERAL POPULATION: Overall Index -18-17 -17-19 -13-12 -28-2 State of Economy -4-38 -46-4 -36-36 -58-45 Personal Finances 12 12 14 6 14 2 4 11 Buying Climate -26-24 -2-24 -18-18 -36-26 ------------------------------------------------------------------ OVERALL INDEX BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS Sex: Men -6-5 -6-9 -6-5 -19-12 Women -28-26 -27-29 -2-14 -38-27 Age: 18-34 -18-14 -14-15 -1 2-25 -13 35-44 -17-18 -18-17 -28-9 -31-19 45-54 -13-9 -16-33 -13-8 -41-25 55-64 -16-2 -16-9 -17-8 -39-22 65 + -23-24 -24-25 -19-15 -36-26 Income:
Under $15K -51-47 -45-61 -38-36 -67-5 $15K To $24.9K -35-41 -57-34 -32-27 -57-42 $25K To $39.9K -36-33 -33-48 -31-16 -49-31 $4K To $49.9K 8 2-6 -29-14 2-32 -15 Over $5K 3 2 9 8 9 15-15 4 Region: Northeast -28-31 -27-32 -22-11 -38-26 Midwest -2-15 -15-13 -1-8 -34-19 South -1-6 -11-12 -13-6 -29-19 West -17-2 -18-28 -9 4-34 -16 Race: White -14-12 -11-16 -11-8 -23-16 Black -43-54 -68-5 -26-21 -68-44 Politics: Republican 13 17 18 7 9 19-3 8 Democrat -39-39 -4-46 -28-23 -46-36 Independent -26-24 -23-21 -12-12 -38-24 Education: < High School -54-53 -42-5 -42-23 -59-43 High Sch. Grad. -25-23 -2-18 -18-11 -4-25 College + -1-1 -7-11 -1 1-18 -8 Home: Own -1-8 -9-16 -11-8 -24-15 Rent -38-38 -38-31 -21-18 -43-32 Marital Status: Single -24-22 -26-25 -2 1-33 -18 Married -1-8 -8-11 -14-6 -27-15 Sep/Wid/Div -38-38 -42-5 -24-21 -52-36 Employ. Status: Full-Time -7-6 -6-15 -4-4 -2-12 Part-Time -19-14 -22-16 -21 3-4 -23 Not Employed -29-29 -31-26 -25-21 -4-3 ***END***