The Essential Report 3 June 2014 MELBOURNE SYDNEY BRISBANE ADELAIDE BRUSSELS www.essentialresearch.com.au
The Essential Report Date: 3 June 2014 Prepared by: Essential Research Data supplied: Essential Media Communications is a member of the Association of Market and Social Research Organisations. Our researchers are members of the Australian Market and Social Research Society The Essential Report 30/04/14 Page 2 / 11
About this poll This report summarises the results of a weekly omnibus conducted by Essential Research with data provided by Your Source. The survey was conducted online from the 29 th May to 2 nd June 2014 and is based on 1,071 respondents. Aside from the standard question on voting intention, this week s report includes questions on the Federal budget, party trust to handle issues and best leader of the Liberal Party. The methodology used to carry out this research is described in the appendix on page 11. Note that due to rounding, not all tables necessarily total 100% and subtotals may also vary. The Essential Report 30/04/14 Page 3 / 11
Federal politics voting intention Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward? Q. If don t know - Well which party are you currently leaning to? Sample size = 1,936 respondents First preference/leaning to Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 6/5/14 2 weeks ago 20/05/14 Last week 27/5/14 This week 3/6/14 Liberal 38% 38% 37% 35% National 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 45.6% 40% 40% 40% 38% Labor 33.4% 38% 40% 39% 39% Greens 8.6% 10% 8% 9% 10% Palmer United Party 5.5% 5% 5% 5% 6% Other/Independent 6.9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 2 Party Preferred Election 7 Sep 13 4 weeks ago 6/5/14 2 weeks ago 20/05/14 Last week 27/5/14 This week 3/6/14 Liberal National 53.5% 48% 48% 48% 47% Labor 46.5% 52% 52% 52% 53% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2- week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select don t know are not included in the results. The two- party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election. The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 4 / 11
Level of Cuts Q. Do you think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, not enough or about the right amount? Total Labor Lib/Nat Greens other 19 May Cut spending too much 48% 72% 18% 66% 56% 41% Not cut spending enough 11% 6% 21% 3% 12% 15% Cut spending about right amount 21% 4% 49% 11% 11% 26% Don t know 19% 17% 12% 20% 21% 18% 48% think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, 21% think it has cut the right amount and 11% think it has not cut spending enough. Over the last two weeks (since this question was asked immediately after the budget) the proportion thinking the budget has cut too much has increased 7% and decreased for both cut the right amount (down 5%) and not cut enough (down 4%). 72% of Labor voters (up 3%), 66% of Greens voters (up 11%) and 56% of others (up 8%) think that the Federal Budget had cut spending by too much. 49% of Liberal- National voters (down 6%) think that spending had been cut by the right amount. The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 5 / 11
Opposition vote on the budget Q. Do you think the Labor Opposition should vote to block the whole budget, vote against certain parts of the budget or pass the whole budget? Total Labor Lib/Nat Greens other Block the budget 18% 34% 1% 20% 21% against some parts of the budget 53% 60% 41% 64% 66% Pass the whole budget 18% 1% 48% 8% 5% Don t know 11% 4% 10% 9% 9% 53% think the Labor Opposition should vote against some parts of the budget, 18% think they should block the whole budget and 18% think they should pass the whole budget. A substantial majority of Labor voters (60%), Greens voters (64%) and other voters (66%) think that Labor should vote against some parts of the budget. 48% of Liberal/National voters think Labor should pass the whole budget but 41% think they should vote against some parts. The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 6 / 11
Opposition vote on specific budget issues Q. Do you think the Labor Opposition should vote for or against the following budget decisions? for Don t against know A 2% deficit levy on earnings over $180,000 73% 13% 14% Foreign aid frozen at current levels for two years, helping save $7.6 billion over five years 65% 22% 12% University graduates to repay HELP debt once they earn $50,638 (reduced from $53,345) 64% 25% 11% A six- month waiting period for those under- 30 before they can access the dole (Newstart) 47% 41% 12% Cut 16,500 full- time jobs from the public service in the next 3 years 36% 49% 15% A $120M cut to the ABC s budget 32% 47% 21% $7 Medicare co- payment for all visits to the GP, with this money to be used to fund a Medical Research Future Fund. 32% 61% 8% Cut public funding for university courses by 20% 28% 57% 16% Eligibility for the age pension to rise to 70 by 2035 27% 62% 10% Deregulation of university fees (meaning universities can set their own tuition fees) 23% 63% 15% A majority think that Labor should vote for the 2% deficit levy (73%), freezing foreign aid (65%) and reducing the income level at which students repay debt (64%). A majority think that Labor should vote against deregulation of university fees (63%), raising the pension age (62%), the $7 Medicare copayment (61%) and cutting university funding (57%). They were more divided over the other issues, but tended to support the six- month waiting period for under 30 s to access the dole (47% for/41% against) and tended to oppose cutting the public service (36%/49%) and cutting funds to the ABC (32%/47%). The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 7 / 11
Blocking the budget Q. Would you support or oppose the Labor Opposition blocking the budget and forcing a new election? Total Labor Lib/Nat Greens other Total support 47% 84% 9% 64% 45% Total oppose 40% 8% 82% 19% 41% Strongly support 27% 52% 4% 34% 25% Support 20% 32% 5% 30% 20% Oppose 18% 7% 27% 14% 28% Strongly oppose 22% 1% 55% 5% 13% Don t know 14% 8% 10% 17% 13% 47% said they would support the Labor Opposition blocking the budget and forcing a new election and 40% said they were opposed. A substantial majority of Labor voters (84%) and Greens voters (64%) supported forcing a new election. The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 8 / 11
Party Trust to Handle Issues Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues? Labor Liberal Greens Don t Difference Difference know 3 June 14 11 Feb 14 Management of the economy 28% 41% 4% 28% - 13-19 Ensuring a quality education for all children 43% 28% 6% 23% +15 +7 Ensuring the quality of Australia s health system 41% 28% 7% 24% +13 +2 Protecting the environment 20% 18% 40% 22% +22 +15 A fair industrial relations system 40% 29% 6% 26% +11 +5 Political leadership 28% 34% 5% 33% - 6-13 Addressing climate change 22% 20% 32% 26% +12 +3 Controlling interest rates 28% 40% 3% 29% - 12-17 Australian jobs and protection of local industries 40% 28% 5% 27% +12 +2 Ensuring a quality water supply 21% 26% 25% 28% - 5-10 Housing affordability 31% 27% 6% 35% +4-2 Ensuring a fair taxation system 32% 33% 6% 29% - 1-6 Security and the war on terrorism 23% 39% 5% 33% - 16-16 Treatment of asylum seekers 20% 37% 14% 29% - 17-16 Managing population growth 21% 31% 9% 38% - 10-11 Note - Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % - except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal. The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle management of the economy (- 13), controlling interest rates (- 12), security and the war on terrorism (- 16) and treatment of asylum seekers (- 17). The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a quality education for all children (+15), ensuring the quality of Australia s health system (+13), Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+12) and a fair industrial relations system (+11). Since this question was asked in February, the Labor Party has improved its position on most issues - especially the quality of the health system (up 11), Australian jobs and protection of local industries (up 10) and education (up 8). The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 9 / 11
Best leader of the Liberal Party Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party? Total Male Female 29 Jul 23 Apr 30 May 28 Feb 27 Sep Labor Lib/Nat Greens other 13 12 11 11 10 Tony Abbott 18% 21% 15% 3% 43% 2% 13% 17% 23% 22% 24% 26% Malcolm Turnbull 31% 33% 28% 37% 27% 35% 28% 37% 30% 25% 18% 20% Joe Hockey 6% 7% 5% 2% 11% 5% 5% 10% 14% 17% 16% 15% Julie Bishop 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 5% 3% 5% 3% 4% 5% Christopher Pyne <1% <1% - <1% - - - na na na na na Scott Morrison 1% 1% <1% 2% <1% - 1% na na na na na Andrew Robb na na na na na na na * 1% 1% 1% na Someone else 19% 18% 21% 28% 5% 25% 28% 12% 12% 13% 14% na Don t know 21% 16% 27% 24% 10% 30% 21% 19% 16% 19% 22% 33% 31% (down 6% since July last year) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 6% (down 4%) Joe Hockey. Note the previous poll was taken prior to the 2013 election when the Liberal Party were in Opposition. Among Liberal/National voters, 43% (up 7%) prefer Tony Abbott, 27% (down 8%) Malcolm Turnbull and 11% (down 2%) Joe Hockey. Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 33% (down 6%) of men and 28% (down 8%) of women, Tony Abbott by 21% (no change) of men and 15% (up 1%) of women. The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 10 / 11
Appendix: Methodology, margin of error and professional standards The data gathered for this report is gathered from a weekly online omnibus conducted by Your Source. Essential Research has been utilizing the Your Source online panel to conduct research on a week- by- week basis since November 2007. Each week, the team at Essential Media Communications discusses issues that are topical and a series of questions are devised to put to the Australian public. Some questions are repeated regularly (such as political preference and leadership approval), while others are unique to each week and reflect media and social issues that are present at the time. Your Source has a self- managed consumer online panel of over 100,000 members. The majority of panel members have been recruited using off line methodologies, effectively ruling out concerns associated with online self- selection. Your Source has validation methods in place that prevent panellist over use and ensure member authenticity. Your Source randomly selects 18+ males and females (with the aim of targeting 50/50 males/females) from its Australia wide panel. An invitation is sent out to approximately 7000 8000 of their panel members. The response rate varies each week, but usually delivers 1000+ interviews. In theory, with a sample of this size, there is 95 per cent certainty that the results are within 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire population had been polled. However, this assumes random sampling, which, because of non- response and less than 100% population coverage cannot be achieved in practice. Furthermore, there are other possible sources of error in all polls including question wording and question order, interviewer bias (for telephone and face- to- face polls), response errors and weighting. The best guide to a poll s accuracy is to look at the record of the polling company - how have they performed at previous elections or other occasions where their estimates can be compared with known population figures. In the last poll before the 2010 election, the Essential Report estimates of first preference votes were all within 1% of the election results. The Your Source online omnibus is live from the Wednesday night of each week and closed on the following Sunday. Incentives are offered to participants in the form of points. Essential Research uses the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software to analyse the data. The data is weighted against Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. All Essential Research and senior Your Source staff hold Australian Market and Social Research Society (AMSRS) membership and are bound by professional codes of behaviour. Your Source is an Australian social and market research company specializing in recruitment, field research, data gathering and data analysis. Essential Research is a member of the Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO). Your Source holds Interviewer Quality Control Australia (IQCA) accreditation, Association Market and Social Research Organisations (AMSRO) membership and World Association of Opinion and Marketing Research Professionals (ESOMAR) membership. Both Essential Research and Your Source are ISO accredited market research companies. This research was conducted in compliance with AS: ISO20252 guidelines. The Essential Report 06/05/14 Page 11 / 11