Forecast current as of: Spring 214 Economic Indicators The unemployment rate fell by a large margin (.4 percentage points) in April. Total employment rose by 288, jobs. There were 32, construction jobs added, contributing to the 189, construction jobs gained over the past year. National real construction spending grew 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April from the preceding year. Residential and nonresidential construction activity rose 9.9% and 3.9%, respectively, while public construction fell 2.1%. Job creation is critical in generating household formation and favorable homebuyer affordabilty. PCA expects roughly 2.5 million additional jobs to be created during 214 and roughly 2.7 million in 215. Residential Construction Real residential building construction spending for April was up 9.9% from 213, as both single family (7.4%) and multifamily (23.%) continued to grow solidly. Improvements also jumped 1.%. In April, there were 1,72, (SAAR) residential starts in the US, an addition of 13.2% (125,) from last month. Of those 1,72, starts, 649, were for single family houses, a rise from 644, the month before. Looking back to April of 213, there has been a growth of 224, total housing starts. Data current as of: June 3, 214 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Total Real Construction PIP Sep9 Apr1 Nov1 Jun11 Jan12 Aug12 Mar13 Oct13 Total Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Real Construction PIP) Res. Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) Next Forecast Release: YOY Job Gain/Loss ( SA) 2367 288 2.%.3% 4%.% YOY MOM Change in Fixed Mortgage Rate 7.3% 1.% MOM Real GDP % Change (QOQ) 1.2 1.% Change in Unemployment Change in Inflation (.4) Change in Consumer Confidence 13 Total Single Family Sales. Change in Average Home Price Change in Housing Starts (2) Total Real Construction PIP.8 26% August 1, 214.2% 13% Nearly half of the anticipated growth in 214 cement consumption is expected in the residential sector. Home inventories are lean and home prices are rising, which sends a clear signal to homebuilders. PCA expects nearly 3 million tons of growth in residential consumption in 214. Nonresidential Construction Real nonresidential construction spending climbed 3.9% from 213, and.7% from the month before. The yearoveryear improvement was fueled primarily by growth in the commercial and office subsectors (7.2% and 14.9%, respectively). The survey for the percentage of banks tightening standards was at 3.2%, which means a small majority of banks eased their lending standards in April. During the last quarter, the average for the survey was 3.4%, up from 9.6% for the 12 month average, implying movement toward the tightening of standards. Nonresidential construction declined 4 during 28211, and cement consumption declined 2 during the same period. The nonresidential sector has shown a solid recovery since 211 and is expected to achieve sustained gains in both construction activity and cement intensities throughout the forecast horizon. Public Construction April's real construction spending for the public sector was down 2.1% from 213, continuing its mostly downward yearoveryear trend. The subsectors of public spending were mixed, but Highways and Streets, along with Miscellaneous, showed significant growth. Real personal income was approximately $14.5 trillion (SAAR) for April, up.3% from the previous month. The average for the quarter was $14.5 trillion and the average for the last 12 months was $14.3 trillion, signifying a recent boost in income levels. As the economy gains momentum, job gains will add strength to states ability to spend and rising home prices will eventually support stronger construction spending at the local level as well. Both these conditions, however, still have some time to brew before resulting in a significant positive impact on public spending. 5, 25, 2, 15, 1, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Report Printed On: 6/3/214 1 5, Sep9 Apr1 Nov1 Jun11 Jan12 Aug12 Mar13 Oct13 5, Res. Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Res. Real Construction PIP) Nonresidential Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) Sep9 Apr1 Nov1 Jun11 Jan12 Aug12 Mar13 Oct13 Nonresidential Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Nonresidential Real Construction PIP) Public Real Construction PIP (Mil SAAR) Sep9 Apr1 Nov1 Jun11 Jan12 Aug12 Mar13 Oct13 Public Real Construction PIP 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Public Real Construction PIP) Res. Construction Employment.6% Res. Real Construction PIP 1%.% YOY MOM Change in DJ REIT Index 2.7% Change in Corp Risk Prem (.2) (5.2) % of Banks Tightening Credit 18%.3% Nonres. Employment..2% Nonres Constr. Employment 1.7%.3% Nonres. Real Construction PIP 3.9%.7% YOY MOM Real Personal Income 3.6%.3% 2 Yr Muni Yield Composite.4 (.2) Real Public Expenditures 2.6% 1. Public Employment.%.1% Heavy & Civil Constr. Emp. 4.% 1.2% Public Real Construction PIP 2.1%.
4..4 214 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 3MMA Forecast YOY Change MOM Change General Economic Indicators Real GDP Growth (SAAR %) (1.) (1.) 2.1 2.8 1.% Inflation Rate 1.1% 1. 2.% 1. 1.4% 1.7% 2.%.3% Consumer Sentiment Index (1985=1) 78 84 82 81 78 84 18. 2.6% Employment (, SA) Employment 137,761 137,964 138,252 137,992 137,29 139,886 1.7%.2% MOM Change in Employment 222 23 288 238 23 2,367 288 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.6 7. 6.8 (1.2) (.4) Total Construction Employment 5,951 5,968 6, 5,973 5,881 3.3%. MOM Change in Employment 24 17 32 24 14 189 32 Residential Construction Employment 2,234 2,244 2,257 2,245 2,197 5.%.6% MOM Change in Employment 7 1 13 1 9 189 13 Nonresidential Construction Employment 2,814 2,82 2,828 2,82 2,793 1.7%.3% MOM Change in Employment 5 6 8 6 3 46 8 Heavy & Civil Engineering Constr. Employment 92 94 915 97 891 4.% 1.2% Change in Employment 12 2 11 8 3 33 11 Interest Rates (%) Federal Funds Rate.1.1.1.1.1.1 (.1). LIBOR (1 month).2.2.2.2.2 (.) (1.) Three Year Treasury.7.8.9.8.7 2.2.5 (.9) BAA Bond 5.1 5.1 4.9 5. 5.2 6.4.3 (1.2) Key Residential Indicators Mortgage Rate 3 Yr Fixed (%) 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.6.8. Median Existing Home Price (, SA) 23.3 23.1 23.6 23.3 2. 271.8 4.7%. Median New Home Price (, SA) 259.9 279.5 27.8 27.1 268.8 214.4 1.2% 3.1% Home Affordability Index (24=1) 98.9 95.3 97.8 99.9.1%.% New Home Sales (, SAAR) 437 47 433 426 428 448 2.9% 6.4% Existing Home Sales (, SAAR) 4,4 4,4 4,6 4,47 4,372 4,45 7.7%. Months Supply of New Single Family Homes 5.1 5.6 5.3 5.3 5. 9. 1. (.3) Total Housing Starts (, SAAR) 928. 947. 1,72. 982.3 935.3 1,88.3 26.4% 13.2% Key Nonresidential Indicators Percent of Banks Tightening Lending Standards (%) (4.) (2.9) (3.2) (3.4) (1.5) 17.8 (.3) Corporate Risk Premium (%) 4.4 4.2 4. 4.2 4.5 (.2) (5.2) Capacity Utilization (%) 78.8 79.3 78.6 78.9 78.2 78.7.9 (.6) Industrial Vacancy Rate (%) Office Vacancy Rate 15.1 Nonresidential Employment (, SA) 71,354 71,47 71,623 71,482 7,89 2.2%.2% Office Employment 29,543 29,594 29,672 29,63 29,336 29,87 2.4%.3% Retail Employment 15,235 15,259 15,294 15,263 15,158 15,117 2.2%.2% Leisure Employment 14,495 14,529 14,557 14,527 14,366 2.9%.2% Manufacturing Employment 12,81 12,88 12,1 12,9 12,3 12,.8%.1% Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 216.4 215.9 221.8 218. 211.2 5.% 2.7% Retail Dow Jones REIT Index 33.2 35.6 318.2 39. 299.5 5.3% 4.1% Office Dow Jones REIT Index 33.1 34.7 311.3 36.4 288.7 2.7% 2.2% Industrial Dow Jones REIT Index 252.4 249.6 248.3 25.1 241.6 7.3%. Key Public Indicators Personal Income (Billions, SAAR) 14,41 14,487 14,53 14,476 14,278 13,745 3.6%.3% State and Local Government Tax Collections (Billion $) 2,132 2,132 2,113 2.6% 1.3% State and Local Government Expenditures (Billion $) 2,369 2,369 2,335 2.6% 1. Public Debt Outstanding (Billion $) 17,463 17,61 17,58 17,524 17,86 4.%. Government Employment (, SA) 21,832 21,853 21,854 21,859 21,854.%.1% 2 Year Municipal Bond Yield Composite (%) 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3.4 (.2) SAAR= Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate; SA = Seasonally Adjusted; NSA= Nonseasonally Adjusted; #MMA=# Month Moving Average; YOY= Year over Year; MOM= Month over Month; 6.% 4.% 2.%.% 2.% 4.% 6.% 8.% Change in Real GDP 1.% Jun8 Apr9 Feb1 Dec1 Oct11 Aug12 Jun13 Apr14 Real GDP Growth (%) 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 Construction Employment (, SA) 3 Apr 11 Aug 11 Dec 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Dec 12 Apr 13 Aug 13 Dec 13 Apr 14 Construction Employment 6MMA 2
Current Dollars Real 29 Dollars 4..4 14/13 14/13 214 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 Change Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 Change Forecast Total 946,111 951,584 953,549 8.6% 856,126 86,8 86,3 3.9% 8.3% Month to Month % Change.1%..% Residential Buildings 372,883 378,295 378,52 17.2% 334,755 34,227 34,122 9.9% 15.2% Month to Month % Change.9% 1.6%.% New Housing Units 224,48 226,421 229,939 17.1% 21,139 23,636 26,613 9.8% 23.2% Single Family 185,859 187,99 189,551 14. 166,854 168,271 17,322 7.4% 24.6% Multifamily 38,189 39,322 4,388 31.2% 34,284 35,365 36,291 23.% 16.1% Improvements 148,835 151,874 148,581 17.3% 133,616 136,591 133,59 1.% 2.8% Nonresidential Buildings 196,887 195,434 197,57 8.6% 184,732 182,62 183,83 3.9% 8.7% Month to Month % Change 2.8% 1.2%.7% Manufacturing 51,48 5,656 5,12 7.3% 47,615 47,12 46,285 1.8% 11.1% Office 41,789 41,66 42,52 19.3% 39,443 39,158 39,793 14.9% 9.7% Lodging 15,698 15,356 15,64 17.2% 14,935 14,528 14,719 1.4% 14.6% Health Care 21,599 21,785 22,22 2. 2,574 2,636 2,938 8.2% 1.2% Religious 3,87 3,24 3,3 5.2% 2,938 3,67 3,17 1.8% 7.6% Educational 15,771 15,775 16,4 4.1% 14,269 14,23 14,344 8. 3. Commercial 41,588 4,932 41,12 9.6% 38,96 38,294 38,415 7.2% 1.9% Amusement 6,37 6,3 6,619 15.9% 5,999 5,74 6,229 9.1%.% Public Utility & Other 14,351 14,975 12,389 1.9% 9,352 9,793 88,572.2% 1.4% Month to Month % Change 3.3%. 2.4% Transportation 12,36 12,476 12,824 12.2% 1,995 11,378 11,677 1.2% Power 7,79 7,785 7,385 3.9% 61,59 61,541 61,16 5.% Communication 21,66 21,714 19,18 21.4% 17,848 17,873 15,735 17.1% Farm Nonresidential 6,863 6,915 7,37.1% 6,53 6,543 6,624 5.8% 1.2% Month to Month % Change.9%.2% 1.2% Public Construction 265,127 265,965 268,96.8% 239,758 239,844 241,152 2.1% 1.% Month to Month % Change.7%.%. Public Buildings 93,853 92,611 94,25 1.9% 86,16 84,561 85,662 6.8%.3% Education 6,862 6,773 62,621 4.9% 55,65 54,718 56,125.% Healthcare 1,338 9,231 9,382 13.8% 9,847 8,744 8,841 18.8% Commercial 1,784 1,794 2,57 28.9% 1,671 1,678 1,922 3.4% Residential 5,69 4,72 4,421 29.3% 4,551 4,229 3,973 33.7% Lodging 332 389 42 4.1% 316 368 378 2.% Religious 8 2 1 96.% 8 2 1 96.2% Amusement 7,687 7,686 7,694 5.7% 7,312 7,271 7,24 11.3% Office 7,773 8,34 7,672.8% 7,337 7,552 7,183 4. Highways & Streets 82,27 82,268 81,374 4.8% 74,1 74,128 73,23 3.%.9% Public Safety 8,618 8,562 8,484 12.4% 7,775 7,715 7,635 13.9% 1.8% Conservation 6,777 6,767 7,1 19.7% 5,974 5,949 6,147 18.1% 6.7% Sewer Systems 2,55 19,729 2,527 5. 17,678 17,345 17,999 6.7% 4.6% Water Supply Systems 11,543 12,611 12,588 12.8% 1,175 11,87 11,37 14.% 2.8% Miscellaneous 42,254 43,417 43,863 7.9% 38,49 39,6 39,442 6.%.% Transportation 28,897 3,251 31,346 6.3% 26,397 27,589 28,542 4. Power 12,48 12,411 11,78 15.6% 1,856 1,79 1,236 14.3% Communication 28 189 167 11.6% 172 156 137 14.8% Manufacturing 669 566 57 27.8% 624 525 527 31. Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are on a 29 dollar basis and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 2 2% 1 1% % 1% Real Construction PIP ( YOY % Change) 1 Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Total Residential Buildings 2% 1 1% % 1% 1 2% 2 Real Construction PIP ( YOY % Change) 3% Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Nonresidential Buildings Public Construction 3
4..4 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 3MMA 214 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change Residential Construction Spending 334,755 34,227 34,122 338,368 323,57 15.2% 9.9%.% New Housing 21,139 23,636 26,613 23,796 196,491 23.2% 9.8% 1. Single Family 166,854 168,271 17,322 168,483 163,956 24.6% 7.4% 1.2% Multifamily 34,284 35,365 36,291 35,313 32,534 16.1% 23.% 2.6% Improvements 133,616 136,591 133,59 134,572 127,8 2.8% 1.% 2.3% New Home Affordability Single Family Median Home Price () 23 23 24 23 2 272 4.7%.2% Year to Year % Change 8.9 6.5 4.7 6.7 1.3 3.7 Conventional Mortgage Payment ($) 763 792 773 775 1,34 17.2% 3.8% Single Family Affordability Index (24=1) 99 95 98 1.1%.1% Multifamily Average Rent ($) 767.3 785.6 769 744 8. 2.4% Mortgage to Rent Ratio 1. 1. 1.1 1.4 7.9% 1.4% Vacancy Rate(%) 8.6 8.5 8.8 Apartment Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 31.9 34.4 31.4 35.6 291.7 1.2% 2.% Sales Activity (, SAAR) Total Single Family 4,477 4,447 4,493 4,472 4,799 4,493 7.3% 1.% Year to Year % Change (6.4) (7.4) (7.3) (7.) 4. 8.4% Month to Month % Change (.7) (.7) 1. (.1) (.5) Existing Single Family 4,4 4,4 4,6 4,47 4,372 4,45 7.7%. Year to Year % Change (7.) (7.) (7.7) (262.3) (55.3) 9. Month to Month % Change.5 16.4 3.3 New Single Family 437 47 433 426 428 448 2.9% 6.4% Year to Year % Change (1.8) (8.1) (2.9) (4.3) 8.7 3.7% Month to Month % Change (4.4) (6.9) 6.4 (1.6).1 Sales Inventory (, SA) Total Single Family 1,945 1,984 2,18 2,12 2,15 2,26 6.4% 6.3% Months Supply 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.1.7.3 Existing Single Family 1,758 1,793 1,916 1,822 1,836 1,837 5.3% 6.9% Months Supply 4.9 5. 5.9 5.27 5.1.7.9 New Single Family 187 191 192 19 179 189 19.3%. Months Supply 5.1 5.6 5.3 5. 5.6 5.4.3 (.) Foreclosures Completed Foreclosures % Change From Last Period Foreclosures In Process % Change From Last Period Seriously Delinquent % Change From Last Period New Modifications and Payment Plans Initiated % Change From Last Period Starts Activity (, SAAR) Total 928 947 1,72 982 935 188 26.4% 13.2% Year to Year % Change (2.4) (4.7) 26.4 6.4 11.7 (6.3) Month to Month % Change 3.5 2.1 13.2 6.2 1.1 Single Family 589 644 649 627 618 741 9.8%.8% Year to Year % Change (9.4) 5.1 9.8 1.8 8.4 Month to Month % Change 1. 9.34.8 3.7.7 Multifamily 339 33 423 355 317 347 64.6% 39.6% Year to Year % Change 12.6 (2.5) 64.6 18.9 2.5 Month to Month % Change 8. (1.6) 39.6 12.3 3.1 Housing Stock () Existing Single Family 65 8 95 8 78 62.8% 18.6% Year to Year % Change 234.99 (9.1) 62.77 96.3 75.2 Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are in Millions of 29 dollars and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Residential Starts Activity ( SAAR) Apr11 Aug11 Dec11 Apr12 Aug12 Dec12 Apr13 Aug13 Dec13 Single Family Starts Multifamily Starts () Residential Sales Activity (% Change) 2 2% 1 1% % 1% 1 2% Apr11 Aug11 Dec11 Apr12 Aug12 Dec12 Apr13 Aug13 Dec13 Apr14 Single Family Sales ( SA) 4
4..4 214 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 3MMA Forecast YOY Change MOM Change Office Construction Spending 39,443 39,158 39,793 39,465 37,6 9.7% 14.9% 1.6% Office Vacancy Rate (%) 15.1 Office Property Rate of Return (%) 2.2 2.2% 2..3 (.1) Office Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 33 35 311 36 289 2.7% 2.2% Year to Year % Change 5.6 5.6 3 4 Office Employment (, SA) 29,543 29,594 29,672 29,63 29,336 29,87 2.4%.3% Change in Employment (, SA) 81 51 78 7 59 Retail Construction Spending 38,96 38,294 38,415 38,556 38,745 1.9% 7.2%.3% Retail Property Rate of Return (%) 4.3 4.3 3.2.6 1.6 Retail Sales (Millions $, SA) 427,554 434,168 434,571 432,98 425,73 4.1%.1% Year to Year % Change 1.6 4.1 4.1 4..% Retail Inventories (Millions $, SA) 548,943 548,982 549,67 534,955 6.1%.% Year to Year % Change 5.4 6.1 1. 6. Retail Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 33 36 318 39 3 5.3% 4.1% Year to Year % Change.6 (.5) (5.3) 2. Retail Employment (, SA) 15,235 15,259 15,294 15,263 15,158 15,117 2.2%.2% Change in Employment (, SA) (6) 25 35 17.9 26.9 Manufacturing Construction Spending 47,615 47,12 46,285 46,971 47,44 11.1% 1.8% 1. Industrial Vacancy Rate (%) Industrial Property Rate of Return (%) 2.8 2.8 3..3 (.2) Industrial Capacity Utilization (%) 78.8 79.3 78.6 78.9 78.2 78.7.9 (.6) Advanced Durable Goods Orders (Millions $, SA) 234,785 237,785 237,222 236,597 232,745 4.6%.2% Year to Year % Change 3.3 4.3 4.6 4. Wholesale Trade Inventories (Millions $, SA) 437,118 443,358 437,845 431,12 6. 1.4% Year to Year % Change 3.4 6.5 4.5 4.4 Manufacturing Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 252 25 248 25 242 7.3%. Year to Year % Change 1.2 (2.1) (7) 2. 2. Manufacturing Employment (, SA) 12,81 12,88 12,1 12,9 12,3 12,.8%.1% Change in Employment (, SA) 2 7 12 13 7 Leisure & Hospitality Construction Spending 5,999 5,74 6,229 14,727 14,553 14.6% 1.4% 1.3% Tourism Sales Total (Millions $, SAAR) 915,5 9,14 4.8% 1.1% Tourism Sales Accommodations (Millions $, SAAR) 186,839 184,45 5.2% 1.3% Hotel Property Rate of Return (%).8.8 1.8 (.4) (1.5) Domestic Revenue Passenger Enplanements 45,486486 49,242 53,169.6% 5.1% International Revenue Passenger Enplanements 6,928 7,647 8,57 2.6% 11.8% Hotel Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 375 384 41 386.7 35. 19.4% 4.4% Year to Year % Change 21.9 18.2 19 2. 2. Leisure Employment (, SA) 14,495 14,529 14,557 14,527 14,366 2.9%.2% Change in Employment (, SA) 35 34 28 32 34 Healthcare Construction Spending 2,574 2,636 2,938 2,716 22,11 1.2% 8.2% 1. Healthcare Dow Jones REIT Index (199=1) 94 943 1,8 964 968 12.3% 6.9% Year to Year % Change (7.4) (11.3) (12) (1.) 5. Healthcare Employment (, SA) 17,912 17,943 17,971 17,942 17,835 1.6%.2% Change in Employment (, SA) 24 31 28 28 25 Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are in Millions of 29 dollars and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1% 2% 3% Real Construction PIP ( YOY) % Change) 6% 4% 2% % 2% 4% Real Construction PIP (YOY % Change) 4% Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Manufacturing Office Educational 6% Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Healthcare Lodging 5
Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 3MMA Forecast YOY Change MOM Change Public Construction Spending 239,758 239,844 241,152 24,251 248,324 1.% 2.1%. Federal Government Construction 21,364 21,231 21,231 21,166 21,524 4.3% 1.6% Share of Federal Construction to Total Public Construction 8.9 8.7 8.8 1. 9..2%.1% Federal Balance (Millions $, NSA) Federal Receipts 144,769 237,786 226,9 22,882 26,992 11.4% 4.9% Federal Outlays 269,97 289,54 289,548 283,19 264,218 22.%.% Federal Deficit\Surplus (125,21) (51,754) (63,458) (8,138) (57,225) (81,296) (11,74) Highway Trust Fund Disposition (Millions $, NSA) Receipts 2,884 3,354 3,734 3,324 4,27 16.6% 11.3% Outlays 3,162 3,494 3,58 3,238 3,936 3.3% 12. Deficit\Surplus 278 14 (677) (86) (334) 16 (6) Reserves 9,819 9,885 9,852 9,852 9,47 () () Highway Trust Fund Indicators Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions, NSA) 232,598 24,437 226,511 233,182 242,582 1.3% 5.8% Gas Station Retail Sales (Millions $, NSA) 29,791 26,298 26,467 27,519 4,727 31.6%.6% Airport Trust Fund Disposition (Millions $, NSA) Receipts 1,396 1,251 1,219 1,289 1,19 165.% 2.6% Outlays 1,121 1,285 1,91 1,166 1,62.2% 15.1% Deficit\Surplus (275) 34 (128) (123) 43 (1) (5) Reserves 12,366 12,182 11,867 12,138 12,154 () () Airport Construction Indicators () Domestic Revenue Passenger Enplanements 45,486 49,242 53,169.6% 5.1% International Revenue Passenger Enplanements 6,928 7,647 8,57 2.6% 11.8% Domestic Revenue Cargo Tons 713,285 811,18 795,754. 11.1% International Revenue Cargo Tons 65,68 742,462 79,47 4.9% 15.6% State & Local Government Construction 218,394 218,941 219,921 219,85 226,648 1.9%.4% Share of S&L Construction to Total Public Construction 91.1 91.3 91.2 9. 91..2%.1% State and Local Balance (Billions $, SAAR) State & Local Receipts 2,132 2,132 2,113 2.6% 1.3% State & Local Outlays 2,369 2,369 2,335 2.6% 1. State & Local Deficit\Surplus (237) (223) (237) (8) (7) Revenue Sources (Billions $, SAAR) Gross Sales Tax 52 52 495 2.4%.8% Property Tax 445 445 444.8%.2% Income Taxes 375 375 375.7% 2.1% Other Revenue Sources 81 81 798 5.3% 2.% Municipal i Bond Average Yield (%) 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3.4 (.2) 2Year Aaa 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7.5 (.1) Aa 4. 4. 3.8 3.9 4.1.4 (.2) A 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.5.5 (.2) Baa 5.1 5.1 4.9 5. 5. 6.4.4 (.2) 1Year Aaa 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.5.5 (.2) Aa 3.1 3.1 2.7 3. 2.9.5 (.3) Personal Income (Billions $, SAAR) Total Personal Income 14,41 14,487 14,53 14,476 14,278 13,745 3.6%.3% Year to Year % Change 3.2 3.4 3.6 3. 2.5 Note: Real Construction Spending Dollars are in Millions of 29 dollars and are Seasonally Adjusted at an Annual Rate (SAAR) 7 2 Yr. Composite Municipal Bond Yield (%, Seasoned) State & Local Deficit/Surplus (Billions $ SAAR) 5 6 1 5 15 2 4 25 3 Apr9 Dec9 Aug1 Apr11 Dec11 Aug12 Apr13 Dec13 3 Jun8 Mar9 Dec9 Sep1 Jun11 Mar12 Dec12 Sep13 Composite Muni Bond Rate Implied State Deficit 4 Per. MA 6
Economic Indicators 6 Employment Situation 12. 5.% Inflation Situation.3% Change in Employment (, SA) 4 2 2 4 6 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. Unemployment Rate (%) Inflation Rate 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 1.% 2.%.2%.2%.1%.1% Federal Funds Rate (%) 8 Apr9 Dec9 Aug1 Apr11 Dec11 Aug12 Apr13 Dec13 YoY Change in Employment Unemployment Rate (%). 3.% Apr9 Dec9 Aug1 Apr11 Dec11 Aug12 Apr13 Dec13 Inflation (YoY % Change) Federal Funds Rate (%).% Residential Indicators 12 Total Home Construction 25 6.% Single Family Sales 6, Total Housing Starts (, SAAR) 1 8 6 4 2 Apr9 Dec9 Aug1 Apr11 Dec11 Aug12 Apr13 Dec13 Total Housing Starts () Median Home Price ( SA) 2 15 1 5 Single Family Average Home Price (, SA) 3 Year Mortgage Rate (%) 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Apr9 Dec9 Aug1 Apr11 Dec11 Aug12 Apr13 Dec13 Mortgage Rate 3 Yr Fixed (%) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Total Single Family Sales Annual % Change Single Family Sales (, SA) Nonresidential Indicators 9 8 7 6 5 M O M Change in Nonresidential Employment 2 2% 1 1% Dow Jones REIT Index Y O Y % Change 4 3 2 1 1 February214 March214 April214 % 1% 1 February214 March214 April214 Healthcare Office Retail Leisure Manufacturing Health REIT Office REIT Retail REIT Hotels REIT Industrial REIT Public Indicators Highway Trust Fund Monthly Balance (Millions $) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 5, Highway Trust Fund Balance 1, Apr9 Dec9 Aug1 Apr11 Dec11 Aug12 Apr13 Dec13 Highway Trust Fund Balance Excess Highway Trust Fund Reserves 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Highway Trust Fund Reserves (Millions $) Airport Trust Fund Monthly Balance (Millions $) 3, 2, 1, 1, 2, Airport Trust Fund Balance 3, Apr9 Jan1 Oct1 Jul11 Apr12 Jan13 Oct13 Airport Trust Fund Balance Excess Airport Trust Fund Reserves 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, Airport Trust Fund Reserves (Millions $) 7
Total Construction Spending 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 271 Real Total Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 264 31 34 246 241 173 177 184 Apr12 Jan12 Apr13 Jan13 Apr14 Jan14 Residential Buildings Nonresidential Buildings Public Construction 8% 6% 4% 2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Total Construction Spending 12% Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Total Residential Spending 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 123 Real Residential Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 2 128 159 3 121 17 Apr12 Jan12 Apr13 Jan13 Jan14 Apr14 Single Family Multifamily Improvements 36 134 2 2% 1 1% % Residential Construction 1% Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Total Nonresidential Spending 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Real Nonresidential Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 173 177 184 93 88 89 7 7 7 Apr12 Jan12 Apr13 Jan13 Apr14 Jan14 Nonresidential Buildings Public Utility & Other Farm Nonresidential 2% 1 1% % 1% 1 2% 2 Nonresidential Construction 3% Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Nonresidential Buildings Public Spending 25 2 238 Real Public Construction Spending (Billions 29$ SAAR) 224 22 2% % 2% Public Construction Spending ( Y O Y % Change) 15 4% 1 6% 8% 5 26 22 21 Jan12 Apr12 Apr13 Jan13 Apr14 Jan14 Real State and Local Construction Real Federal Construction 1% 12% 14% Sep1 Feb11 Jul11 Dec11 May12 Oct12 Mar13 Aug13 Jan14 Public Construction 8