ONTARIO LEADERSHIP EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM EST - SEPTEMBER 22, 2016 PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,562 Ontario residents by Smart IVR on September 17-18, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.94%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
A2 "Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia. LIBERAL SWEEP POSSIBLE - JUST NOT WITH WYNNE September 22, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Ontario Liberals could win a majority government - with a different leader. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll was conducted September 17-18, 2016, with 2,562 respondents it has a margin of error of +/- 1.94%, 19 times out of 20. If an election were held today, the Ontario Liberals could return to power with a majority government, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. When asked to consider an Ontario Liberal party led by someone other than Kathleen Wynne, the Liberals lead Patrick Brown's PCs by 4% including a staggering 22% lead in the 416 where a sweep is possible. The bad news for current Premier and party leader Kathleen Wynne is that it is all but impossible right now with her at the helm. With the current Premier as leader, the Liberals trail by 15% and would be hard pressed to win a majority of seats even in the 416 where they are leading by just 10%. As we approach the mid-term of Kathleen Wynne's mandate, it appears her own popularity lags the Liberal brand drastically. This reversal of fortunes for the once popular Wynne who outpaced her party brand in June 2014 to lead them to an unexpected Majority is quite astounding but not unprecedented in Canadian politics. It is reminiscent of other first term Premiers including Jim Prentice and Alison Redford in Alberta & Greg Selinger in Manitoba. Like Prentice, Redford & Selinger before her, Wynne's brand rejuvenated a long serving, tired administration with significant baggage. Her push of the Liberal brand to the left in 2014 outflanked a hapless Andrea Horwath led NDP - but that was then. Her personal credibility on the left end of the political spectrum is now gone. With a widely unpopular Hydro One privatization, her accomplishments in Education, Healthcare, Environment and Transit go unnoticed. With twenty months till the next election it may be possible to right the ship. An expected contest in the Liberal bastion of Ottawa-Vanier will be an opportunity for the Wynne Liberals to prove the results of Scarborough-Rouge River were a meaningless blip much like the Etobicoke-Lakeshore loss in 2013. A loss in Vanier would begin a long, slow march towards a campaign in the spring of 2018 that can't come soon enough for PC leader Patrick Brown. His personal awareness and approvals have increased and now sit at 44%, 12% back of NDP leader Andrea Horwath who sits at 56% and outpaces the current Premier almost 3 to 1. Whether Wynne can recast herself successfully in the months ahead is hard to say. Many believe the Province isn't going far enough to reduce Hydro costs (46%), finished Maggi. About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. -30- Available from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca For More Information: David Valentin, david@mainstreetresearch.ca, 514-913-5524
A3 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? 35% 18% 5% 21% 21% Liberal PC NDP Green Undecided
A4 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Liberal 18% 27% 14% 24% 20% 21% PC 36% 33% 39% 34% 37% 34% NDP 18% 16% 22% 16% 18% 18% Green PC Undecided 8% 20% 5% 20% 3% 22% 4% 23% 5% 20% 5% 22% Sample 332 617 814 799 1,235 1,327 ON SW SC 416 905 North East Liberal 21% 14% 16% 19% 34% 12% 18% PC 35% 39% 37% 37% 27% 36% 41% NDP 18% 30% 12% 15% 14% 23% 13% Green 5% 6% 5% 3% 6% 3% 7% Undecided 21% 11% 30% 26% 20% 26% 20% Sample 2,562 412 417 486 454 349 444
A5 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? [DECIDED & LEANING] 43% 28% 23% 6% Liberal PC NDP Green
A6 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? [DECIDED & LEANING] ON 28% 43% 23% 6% Male 26% 45% 23% 7% Female 30% 41% 24% 6% 18-34 24% 45% 21% 10% 35-49 35% 37% 22% 5% 50-64 21% 47% 28% 65+ 32% 41% 22% 5% North 23% 42% 31% East 30% 46% 16% 8% SW 17% 43% 34% 6% SC 29% 45% 19% 6% GTA 25% 49% 22% 416 42% 32% 18% 8% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A7 And if the Ontario Liberal Party had a different leader which party would you support? 28% 16% 5% 29% 22% Liberal PC NDP Green Undecided
A8 And if the Ontario Liberal Party had a different leader which party would you support? ON 29% 28% 16% 5% 22% Male 26% 30% 16% 6% 23% Female 32% 26% 16% 21% 18-34 29% 31% 10% 8% 21% 35-49 27% 24% 21% 5% 22% 50-64 30% 28% 17% 22% 65+ 30% 30% 14% 23% North 34% 29% 16% 18% East 28% 30% 9% 7% 27% SW 25% 29% 27% 5% 14% SC 21% 29% 10% 8% 32% GTA 25% 29% 15% 5% 26% 416 40% 24% 13% 19% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A9 And if the Ontario Liberal Party had a different leader which party would you support? [DECIDED & LEANING] 35% 39% 20% 6% Liberal PC NDP Green
B3 And if the Ontario Liberal Party had a different leader which party would you support? [DECIDED & LEANING] ON 39% 35% 20% 6% Male 35% 38% 20% 7% Female 42% 32% 20% 5% 18-34 41% 37% 12% 10% 35-49 37% 31% 26% 6% 50-64 38% 36% 22% 65+ 38% 38% 20% North 43% 33% 20% East 41% 39% 12% 8% SW 30% 34% 30% 5% SC 35% 38% 18% 9% GTA 34% 39% 21% 6% 416 51% 29% 15% 5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? 17% 6% 10% 34% 33% Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure
A9 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? ON 6% 10% 33% 34% 17% Male 6% 11% 34% 37% 12% Female 5% 10% 32% 30% 22% 18-34 6% 11% 34% 35% 15% 35-49 6% 10% 35% 34% 15% 50-64 6% 11% 32% 34% 18% 65+ 6% 8% 30% 30% 26% North 6% 14% 37% 36% 8% East 6% 9% 29% 31% 24% SW 5% 9% 31% 37% 17% SC 9% 11% 39% 25% 17% GTA 7% 34% 36% 19% 416 7% 13% 33% 32% 15% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A13 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? 13% 24% 16% 16% 32% Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure
A14 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? ON 24% 32% 16% 16% 13% Male 24% 34% 16% 16% 10% Female 23% 30% 15% 16% 17% 18-34 22% 38% 14% 15% 12% 35-49 24% 31% 14% 16% 14% 50-64 27% 30% 16% 15% 13% 65+ 21% 26% 20% 20% 13% North 25% 14% 19% 20% 23% East 20% 31% 16% 18% 15% SW 29% 35% 14% 13% 9% SC 26% 31% 19% 12% 11% GTA 21% 37% 14% 16% 11% 416 23% 28% 16% 18% 16% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A15 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? 19% 27% 25% 15% 14% Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure
A16 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? ON 19% 25% 14% 15% 27% Male 21% 27% 14% 11% 28% Female 18% 24% 14% 19% 25% 18-34 18% 24% 14% 14% 30% 35-49 19% 22% 13% 13% 32% 50-64 19% 25% 14% 17% 25% 65+ 23% 33% 15% 16% 12% North 16% 27% 13% 14% 29% East 14% 26% 16% 17% 27% SW 14% 27% 16% 16% 28% SC 17% 25% 13% 15% 29% GTA 25% 24% 13% 14% 25% 416 23% 25% 12% 14% 26% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A17 Recently the government of Ontario announced it will introduce a rebate for the cost of electricity that amounts to $130 a year for the average household with a larger rebate for residents in rural communities. How closely have you been following this story? 15% 29% 21% 19% 16% Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not Too Closely Not At All Closely Not Aware
A18 Recently the government of Ontario announced it will introduce a rebate for the cost of electricity that amounts to $130 a year for the average household with a larger rebate for residents in rural communities. How closely have you been following this story? ON 15% 21% 16% 19% 29% Male 16% 23% 16% 15% 30% Female 14% 19% 16% 23% 27% 18-34 14% 19% 16% 18% 33% 35-49 15% 19% 15% 18% 34% 50-64 15% 22% 16% 20% 28% 65+ 17% 27% 19% 23% 15% North 10% 22% 19% 20% 30% East 8% 20% 20% 21% 31% SW 12% 22% 18% 20% 28% SC 9% 19% 17% 21% 34% GTA 21% 20% 14% 20% 25% 416 19% 23% 13% 16% 30% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A19 Do you think the Ontario government is going too far to reduce the cost of electricity, not far enough or is it about right? 13% 5% 33% 48% Too Far Not Far Enough About Right Not Sure
A20 Do you think the Ontario government is going too far to reduce the cost of electricity, not far enough or is it about right? ON 5% 48% 33% 13% Male 5% 50% 33% 12% Female 6% 46% 33% 15% 18-34 6% 45% 36% 13% 35-49 6% 46% 34% 15% 50-64 6% 47% 34% 13% 65+ 58% 27% 11% North 9% 52% 15% 24% East 9% 46% 26% 19% SW 7% 48% 31% 14% SC 7% 49% 35% 10% GTA 46% 43% 9% 416 50% 33% 12% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A21 In your opinion what has contributed the most to an increase in the cost of electricity? Is it the refurbishment of existing power plants, the cost of building new power plants, the cost of updating the electrical grid, the cost of green energy or something else? 4% 5% 6% 40% 39% 5% Refurbishment of Existing Plants Cost of Updating Electrical Grid Something Else Cost of New Plants Cost of Green Energy Not Sure
A22 In your opinion what has contributed the most to an increase in the cost of electricity? Is it the refurbishment of existing power plants, the cost of building new power plants, the cost of updating the electrical grid, the cost of green energy or something else? ON 5% 6% 39% 5% 40% Male 6% 7% 40% 5% 39% Female 5% 5% 6% 38% 5% 41% 18-34 5% 6% 39% 5% 40% 35-49 5% 6% 6% 42% 5% 37% 50-64 5% 6% 40% 5% 39% 65+ 6% 6% 35% 5% 44% North 6% 8% 8% 52% 6% 19% East 7% 32% 5% 49% SW 5% 29% 5% 55% SC 5% 9% 38% 5% 39% GTA 5% 5% 7% 42% 37% 416 5% 5% 8% 46% 5% 31% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
A23 SCRIPT 1.If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown NDP led by Andrea Horwath Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided And which party are you leaning towards voting for? Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown NDP led by Andrea Horwath Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided And if the Ontario Liberal Party had a different leader which party would you support? Ontario Liberal Party Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown NDP led by Andrea Horwath Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided And which party would you lean towards? Ontario Liberal Party Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown NDP led by Andrea Horwath Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove Not Sure Recently the government of Ontario announced it will introduce a rebate for the cost of electricity that amounts to $130 a year for the average household with a larger rebate for residents in rural communities. How closely have you been following this story? Very Closely Somewhat Closely Not Too Closely Not At All Closely Not Aware Do you think the Ontario government is going too far to reduce the cost of electricity, not far enough or is it about right? Going Too Far Not Far Enough About Right Not Sure In your opinion what has contributed the most to an increase in the cost of electricity? Is it the refurbishment of existing power plants, the cost of building new power plants, the cost of updating the electrical grid, the cost of green energy or something else? Refurbishment of Existing Power Plants Cost of Building New Power Plants Cost of Updating the Electrical Grid Cost of Green Energy Something Else Not Sure
CALGARY GREENWAY WHITBY Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary Greenway by election. Most Accurate Pollster of the Whitby by election. SASKATCHEWAN MANITOBA Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewan s general election, top results within MoE. Most Active Pollster of Manitoba s general election, top results within MoE.
ONLY WE CALLED THE LIBERAL MAJORITY. I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted. Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls. His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015 Mainstreet Research 132 2255B Queen Street East Toronto Ontario M4E 1G3 Canada
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE mainstreetresearch.ca TWITTER @MainStResearch FACEBOOK fb.com/mainstresearch 2016 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved