Rates, FX and Commodities Strategy CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the Week Ending October 3, 07 WTI crude specs continued to grow their net positioning this week, as money managers added new longs and covered their shorts. Although tensions in Iraq have somewhat subsided, with the region's leader resigning to make way for Kurdish/Iraqi negotiations, continued signals from OPEC that extension of cuts are just around the corner have prompted speculators to take an increasingly bullish stance on oil markets. Further, unexpectedly sharp draws in gasoline inventories last week, along with high demand, firm refinery utilization, less US drilling and strong US exports have supported the global tightening narrative. Meanwhile, participants became increasingly wary of a potential default in Venezuela, prompting many to import less oil from the region. With President Maduro announcing late this week a restructuring of the country's debt, Venezuelan oil exports may remain weak for now, which should play a role in helping the US market rebalance. And, with the OPEC meeting scheduled for month's end, we expect the long interest in crude to remain firm. Gold specs once again reduced their net positioning last week, liquidating long position in more volume compared to the reduction in shorts. Investors were persuaded to reduce their exposure as a dovish taper by the ECB saw the US dollar rally to its highest since July, while news of CME Bitcoin futures, often seen as taking demand away from gold as an uncertainty hedge, also helped keep the yellow metal under pressure. Fears that Taylor would be the next Fed chair likely continued to play a part as well, but now that Powell has been tapped by President Trump we could see some traders take further profits on their short positions. Furthermore, poor employment data released Friday, especially the lack of wage pressures, could see some interest return as continued inflation weakness will see doubts about the 08 dots grow. Copper specs reduced their long exposure this week as investors took profits while shorts were also forced to cover their positions in less magnitude, as the red metal broke above the $7000/t mark during the 9th Chinese Congress. As the twiceadecade congress in China came to an end last week investors liquidated positions and took profits at the elevated levels. Indeed continued rhetoric around a crackdown on residential real estate in China and slowing construction demand kept the red metal somewhat muted compared to other base metals such as nickel and aluminium, who both stole the bullish headlines at LME Week. Weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (October 3, 07) Net NonCommercial Position Net NonCommercial Position (% of Open Interest) Futures Change Futures & Options Change Futures Change Futures & Options Change WTI + Brent Crude Oil 934,398 89,578 977,6 88,37 WTI + Brent Crude Oil 6.3%.% 3.5%.% WTI Crude Oil 540,573 7,740 60,459 64,98 WTI Crude Oil 7.3%.5% 4.5% 0.7% Brent Crude Oil 393,85 7,838 376,6 3,939 Brent Crude Oil 5.% 0.9%.%.3% Natural Gas 5,37 (53,77) 85,485 (50,694) Natural Gas 6.9% 0.9% 6.3% 0.8% RBOB Gasoline 77,094 5,09 76,753 4,5 RBOB Gasoline 9.%.8% 8.7%.7% Heating Oil 56,65 5,8 54,9 5,84 Heating Oil 3.%.3%.8%.% Gold 93,095,70 96,686 (,90) Gold 36.3% 0.0% 7.% 0.4% Silver 60,5 (4,968) 59,0 (5,03) Silver 30.% 3.3% 7.3%.7% Platinum 9,6 (,336) 9,58 (,386) Platinum 5.%.5% 4.8%.5% Palladium,347 (68),56 (09) Palladium 6.7%.0% 58.8%.4% Copper 47,593 (5,659) 47,45 (4,969) Copper 5.9%.3% 5.5%.0% S&P 500 (48) (,56) 83 0 S&P 500 0.4%.% 0.% 0.% Canadian Dollar 57,839 (4,493) 59,676 (4,34) Canadian Dollar 36.7% 5.% 3.6% 5.3% Euro 7,097 (,407) 70,356 (5,97) Euro 6.4%.4% 3.% 3.% U.S. TNotes, 0yr,74 (50,873) 34,978 (75,835) U.S. TNotes, 0yr 0.% 4.8% 0.9%.8% Long NonCommercial Position Short NonCommercial Position Futures Change Futures & Options Change Futures Change Futures & Options Change WTI + Brent Crude Oil,00,8 90,3,50,84 4,946 WTI + Brent Crude Oil,65,730 545,73,03 (46,9) WTI Crude Oil 860,973 39,43 849,708 8,50 WTI Crude Oil 30,400 (3,37) 48,49 (35,796) Brent Crude Oil,39,55 50,70,40,6 3,444 Brent Crude Oil 845,330 3,87,04,954 (0,495) Natural Gas 755,4 (,5) 85,35 (9,655) Natural Gas 50,907 3,05 539,867,039 RBOB Gasoline 69,356 5,605 69,09 5,98 RBOB Gasoline 9,6 0,54 9,339 0,776 Heating Oil 5,86 3,34 5,479 3,48 Heating Oil 69,36 (,687) 70,567 (,036) Gold 68,70 (6,8) 69,343 (8,849) Gold 75,65 (8,5) 7,657 (6,939) Silver 95,38 (3) 94,3 87 Silver 35,30 4,937 35,300 5,300 Platinum 49,58,087 49,54,037 Platinum 9,970,43 9,996,43 Palladium 6,3 3 6,3 83 Palladium 4,885 500 4,796 9 Copper 45,53 (0,43) 45,95 (9,777) Copper 97,90 (4,584) 98,050 (4,808) S&P 500 7,737 (483) 0,97 55 S&P 500 7,985 773 0,04 (46) Canadian Dollar 84,309 (,5) 83,853 (,993) Canadian Dollar 6,470,4 4,77,349 Euro 73,670 (9,869) 69,94 (,455) Euro 0,573,538 99,585,74 U.S. TNotes, 0yr 79,573 (50,489) 76,400 (9,870) U.S. TNotes, 0yr 76,849 384 69,4 (6,035) Contract specifications: Crude Oil 000 bbl; Nat Gas* 0,000 MMbtu; Gasoline 4,000 gal; Heating Oil 4,000 gal; Gold 00 oz; Silver 5000 oz; Platinum 50 oz; Palladium 00 oz; Copper 5,000 lbs; Wheat, Corn Soybeans 5000 Bushels; S&P 500 $50 X S&P 500; Canadian $ C$; Euro 5,000 Note: Positions reflect available data as of Friday. ICE futures data lag NYMEX data by one week; Natural Gas ICE futures (,500 MMbtu) are adjusted :4 to reflect contract size of NYMEX (0,000 MMbtu) Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, TD Securities Disclaimer: This report is a marketing communication. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements, as outlined in the UK FCA s COBS, designed to promote the independence of investment research and is also not subject to any prohibition of dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, although as a matter of policy TD Securities requires its employees not to deal ahead of the dissemination of this report.
CFTC Metals Charts Net 3 COMEX Gold Gold Net Spec Position (lhs) Gold Price (rhs) $UD/oz,700,600,500,400,300,00,00,000 900 COMEX Gold 4 3 Long Gold Short Gold Net COMEX Silver $UD/oz 35 COMEX Silver 30 5 0 5 0 Silver Net Spec Position (lhs) Silver Price (rhs) Long Silver Short Silver Net 30,000 0,000 NYMEX Platinum Platinum Net Spec Position (lhs) Platinum Price (rhs) $UD/oz,800,700,600,500,400,300,00,00,000 900 800 NYMEX Platinum 70,000 30,000 0,000 Long Platinum Short Platinum
Net 35,000 NYMEX Palladium $UD/oz,000 NYMEX Palladium 30,000 5,000 5,000 0,000 5,000 900 800 700 600 500 35,000 30,000 5,000 5,000 0,000 5,000 400 Palladium Net Spec Position (lhs) Palladium Price (rhs) Long Palladium Short Palladium Net COMEX Copper $UD/lb 430 380 330 80 () 30 () () 80 Copper Net Spec Position (lhs) Copper Price (rhs) COMEX Copper Long Copper Short Copper 3
CFTC Energy Charts Net 700,000 500,000 Net 4 3 () () () NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil WTI Net Spec Position (lhs) NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil WTI Price (rhs) $UD/bbl 0 0 00 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 0 $UD/bbl 0 0 00 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 0 NYMEX & ICE WTI Crude Oil 900,000 800,000 700,000 500,000 Long WTI Short WTI NYMEX & ICE Brent Crude Oil,,000,000 800,000 Brent Net Spec Position (lhs) Brent Price (rhs) Long Brent Short Brent Net NYMEX Gasoline $UD/gal 350 300 50 00 50 00 50 Gasoline Net Spec Position (lhs) Gasoline Price (rhs) NYMEX Gasoline Long Gasoline Short Gasoline Note: Positions reflect available data as of Friday. ICE futures data lag NYMEX data by one week. 4
Net NYMEX Heating Oil $UD/gal NYMEX Heating Oil 90 40 90 () () 40 () Heating Oil Net Spec Position (lhs) Heating Oil Price (rhs) 90 Long Heating Oil Short Heating Oil Net 500,000 () () NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas Natural Gas Net Spec Position (lhs) $UD/MMbtu 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00.50.00.50 Natural Gas Price (rhs) NYMEX & ICE Natural Gas,,000,000 800,000 Long Natural Gas Short Natural Gas Notes: Positions reflect available data as of Friday. ICE futures data lag NYMEX data by one week. Natural Gas ICE futures (,500 MMbtu) are adjusted :4 to reflect contract size of NYMEX (0,000 MMbtu) 5
CFTC Agricultural Charts Net () () () () () () () CBOT Wheat Wheat Net Spec Position (lhs) Wheat Price (rhs) $UD/bsh 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 CBOT Wheat Long Wheat Short Wheat Net CBOT Corn $UD/bsh 850 CBOT Corn 750 500,000 650 550 450 () 350 () Corn Net Spec Position (lhs) Corn Price (rhs) 50 Long Corn Short Corn Net () () () CBOT Soybean $UD/bsh,700,600,500,400,300,00,00,000 900 800 CBOT Soybean 3 Soybean Net Spec Position (lhs) Soybean Price (rhs) Long Soybean Short Soybean 6
TDS Commodities Forecast Table Commodity Spot 07 08 Annual (Avg of forward month contracts) Price QA QA Q3A Q4F QF QF Q3F Q4F 06 07F 08F Precious Metals Gold $/oz,67,9,57,78,80,300,300,35,35,50,58,33 Silver $/oz 7.08 7.4 7. 6.84 7.5 8.50 8.50 9.5 9.5 7. 7.8 8.88 Platinum $/oz 93 979 939 953 960,05,050,075,00 987 958,063 Palladium $/oz,00 767 8 90 960 975 975,000,05 63 86 994 Base Metals #N/A Copper $/lb 3..65.57.88 3.07.98.98 3.00 3.00..79.99 $/tonne 6,865 5,838 5,668 6,35 6,775 6,575 6,575 6,64 6,64 4,867 6,58 6,594 Zinc $/lb.47.6.8.34.38.5.5.45.45 0.95.9.48 $/tonne 3,5,778,59,96 3,050 3,350 3,350 3,95 3,95,09,845 3,7 Lead $/lb..03 0.98.06.0.0.0.. 0.85.04.6 $/tonne,458,78,56,33,45,646,646,469,469,867,98,557 Nickel $/lb 5.75 4.66 4.8 4.78 4.93 4.90 4.90 5.00 5.00 4.35 4.64 4.95 $/tonne,68 0,65 9,09 0,538 0,879 0,803 0,803,03,03 9,597 0,3 0,93 Aluminium $/lb 0.98 0.84 0.86 0.9 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.9 0.96 0.73 0.89 0.93 $/tonne,66,853,905,00,00,050,050,08,6,604,967,06 Molybdenum 3 $/lb 8.40 7.88 8.07 8.5 8.5 8.50 8.50 9.00 9.00 6.5 8.09 8.75 Iron Ore 4 $/tonne 60 86 63 7 59 58 58 60 64 58 70 60 Ene r gy #N/A WTI Crude Oil $/bbl 56 5 48 48 54 60 60 6 6 43 5 6 Brent Crude Oil $/bbl 6 55 5 5 57 6 6 6 6 45 54 6 Heating Oil (ULSD) $/gal.89.60.5.65.78.85.80.80.90.36.63.84 Gasoline $/gal.79.58.58.63.63.80.95.95.85.40.6.89 NYMEX Natural Gas $/MMBtu.98 3.06 3.4.95 3.00 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.0.55 3.04 3.6 AECO Natural Gas $/MMBtu.97.0.05.59.80.05.45.60.60.67.87.43 CAD/GJ.40.53.6.89..33.69.88.96.0.9.7 Uranium $/lb 0 4 0 4 6 3 3 6 9 New castle Thermal 5 $/tonne 6 8 80 93 95 90 85 85 88 66 87 87 Notes: F = Forecast, E = Estimate, A = Actual;. London PM Fix;. LME; 3. Molybdenum equivalent to moly oxide, FOB USA; 4. CFR China, 6% Fe, dry; 5. Japan CIF steam coal markernewcastle Source: Bloomberg, TD Securities Commodities Strategy Team: Bart Melek Global Head of Commodity Strategy bart.melek@tdsecurities.com + 46 983 988 Ryan McKay Commodity Strategist ryan.mckay@tdsecurities.com + 46 98 586 Daniel Ghali Commodity Strategist daniel.ghali@tdsecurities.com + 46 983 8075 This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended to provide financial, legal, accounting or tax advice and should not be relied upon in that regard. Information provided in this Report is believed to be accurate and reliable, but we cannot guarantee it is accurate or complete or current at all times and no representation is made in this regard. Conclusions and opinions do not guarantee any future event or performance. It is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. It is based on public information. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on any returns detailed. Historic information or performance is not indicative of future returns. The information is subject to change without notice. Any views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily express those of The Toronto Dominion Bank ( TD Bank ). TD Bank or an associated company may have effected or may effect transactions for its own account in the securities described herein. Any transaction entered into is in reliance only upon your judgment as to both financial and suitability criteria. No proposed customer or counterparty relationship is intended or implied between TD Bank or any of its regulated subsidiaries and a recipient of this document where that recipient is not an existing customer or counterparty of TD Bank or one of its regulated subsidiaries. COPYRIGHT 03 by TD Securities Inc. TD Securities is a trademark of the TD Bank, representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC and certain investment activities of the TD Bank. The TorontoDominion Bank is regulated by the FSA. 7
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