September, 0 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FR: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: ADT / COLORDOCARE SURVEY FINGS Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 00 likely 0 general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August th to st and the survey has a margin of error of +/-.% at the percent confidence interval. Survey Findings The survey finds strong opposition to Amendment, the ColoradoCare universal healthcare plan. Among all respondents, % would vote yes and approve the amendment, % would vote no and reject it, and % of voters are undecided. Intensity is very strong among voters that oppose the amendment, with % of respondents saying they definitely intend to vote no. Only 0% of respondents definitely intend to vote yes. Not surprisingly, support for Amendment is strongest among Democrats and voters aged to. However, slightly more Democrats oppose the amendment than support it, % to % respectively. Among all voters aged to, 0% support it and % oppose it. The following table shows the Amendment ballot test by voter subgroup. Amendment Survey Results by Voter Subgroup All Voters Men Wom - - - - + Dem Rep Unaf Reject % % % % % % % % % % 0% Approve % % % 0% % % % % % % % Undecided % % % % % % % % % % % Opposition to Amendment Has Increased Since January Since our Amendment survey in January, voter opposition has increased by points from 0% to %. Support for the amendment has also declined points, going from % to %. These findings are not that surprising considering Colorado s history of rejecting large tax increases. We believe the amendment asks too much from Colorado voters by asking them to raise their state income tax by 0%. While the dream of universal healthcare may sound appealing to some Colorado voters, two thirds are unwilling to pay up for it. With more than 0 days until Election Day, and five weeks until ballots are mailed out on October th, this survey indicates it is very unlikely that Amendment will be approved by voters.
Magellan Strategies Amendment Survey Summary Field Dates: August th to st, 0, 00n, MoE +/-.% Survey Weighting Decisions The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender and party turnout demographics of the 0 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 0 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than 0, we think it is too early to quantify a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump s candidacy could depress some Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is until ballots are mailed out on October th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party. Survey Sample The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. This survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 0-- or by email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com. Survey Commissioned By This survey and the Amendment ballot question was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.magellanstrategies.com or call 0--. Magellan Strategies Boxelder St. Suite 00 Louisville, CO 00 www.magellanstrategies.com (0) -
Magellan Strategies Colorado General Election Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 00n live survey of likely general election voters in the state of Colorado. The interviews were conducted August th st, 0. This survey has a margin of error of +/-.% at the percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon previous general election demographics. T. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter? Republican... % Democrat... % Unaffiliated... 0% Libertarian... % Green Party... 0% T. How likely are you to vote in the general election this November? Would you say you are extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely or unlikely to vote? Extremely Likely... % Very Likely... % Somewhat Likely... % As you may know, there are several statewide amendments and initiatives on the ballot this November. I am now going to read to you the ballot language of some of those ballot questions. T. The following is language for a ballot question that would create a single-payer, universal healthcare system in Colorado. This one is also a little long, so please listen carefully. SHALL STATE TAXES BE INCREASED BY $ BILLION DOLLARS ANNUALY ESTABLISHING A HEALTH CARE PAYT SYSTEM TO FUND HEALTH CARE FOR ALL IVIDUALS WHOSE PRIMARY RESIDENCE IS IN COLORADO, AND CREATE A GOVERNTAL ENTITY CALLED COLORADO CARE TO ADMNISTER THE HEALTH CARE PAYT SYSTEM, PROVIDING THAT COLORADO CARE BE MANAGED FIRST BY AN APPOINTED BOARD OF TRUSTEES, COLORADO CARE WILL BE EXPEMPT
Magellan ID#: COGEN-0 Colorado General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: // //, MoE +/-.%, 00n FROM THE TAXPAYER BILL OF RIGHTS, AND AN INITIAL TAX WILL BE ASSESSED ON THE AL PAYROLL FROM EMPLOYERS, PAYROLL INCOME FROM EMPLOYEES, AND NONPAYROLL INCOME AT VARYING RATES, AND INCREASING THESE TAX RATES WHEN COLORADO CARE BEGINS MAKING HEALTH CARE PAYTS FOR BENEFICIARIES, AND AUTHORIZING THE BOARD TO INCREASE TAXES IN SPECIFIED CIRCUMSTANCES, CAPPING THE AL AMOUNT OF INCOME SUBJECT TO TAXATION, REQUIRING COLORADO CARE TO CONTRACT WITH HEALTH CARE PROVIDERS TO PAY FOR SPECIFIC HEALTH CARE BENEFITS, AND TRANSFERRING ADMINISTRATION OF THE MEDICAID AND CHILDREN S BASIC HEALTH PROGRAMS AND ALL OTHER STATE AND FEDERAL HEALTH CARE FUNDS TO THE RESPONSIBILITY OF COLORADO CARE; AND SUSPENDING THE OPERATIONS OF THE COLORADO HEALTH BENEFIT EXCHANGE AND TRANSFERING IT S RESOURCES TO COLORADO CARE. If the election were being held today, would you vote YES and approve this ballot measure, or would you vote NO and reject it? Total Yes... % Total No... % Definitely Yes... % Probably Yes... % Definitely No... % Probably No... 0% Undecided... % Don t know/refused... % T. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or unmarried and living with a partner? Married... % Single never been married... 0% Divorced... % Widowed... % Unmarried, living with a partner... % Separated... 0% No opinion... % Magellan Strategies Boxelder St. Suite 00 Louisville, CO 00 www.magellanstrategies.com (0) -
Magellan ID#: COGEN-0 Colorado General Election Survey Topline Results Field Dates: // //, MoE +/-.%, 00n T. Which of the following age groups applies to you? -... % -... % -... % -... 0% +... % Refused... 0% T. What is your racial or ethnic background? White... % Hispanic or Latino... % Black or African American... % Other... % Don t Know or Refused... 0% T. Are you male or female? Female... % Male... % Survey Methodology This survey was conducted by live dialing both landline and cell phone sample. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a state of Colorado voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon the 0 Colorado voter turnout demographics. The interviews were conducted on August th st, 0. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of +/-.% at the percent confidence interval. Magellan Strategies Boxelder St. Suite 00 Louisville, CO 00 www.magellanstrategies.com (0) -
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. Are you registered to vote in Colorado as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, registered with some other party, or are you not registered to vote? GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 UBLICAN.0...0. 0.. 0.. 0...0 OCRAT 0.0. 0. 0.....0.... 0 UNAFFILIATED...... 0...... LIBERTARIAN.0... 0. 0.... 0. GREEN PARTY 0..0..
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. Are you registered to vote in Colorado as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent, registered with some other party, or are you not registered to vote? RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 UBLICAN.0.. 0. 0 0... 0. 0 0..0... OCRAT 0.0..........0..0. UNAFFILIATED............. 0. LIBERTARIAN.0..... 0.. GREEN PARTY 0....
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. How likely are you to vote in the general election this November for the State Legislature? Would you say you are extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely or unlikely to vote? GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 0.0. 0. 0.. 0... 0..... 0..... 0 0... VERY LIKELY... 0..... 0.0. 0 0.0....0...... SOMEWHAT LIKELY...0...0. 0.....0...... 0...
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. How likely are you to vote in the general election this November for the State Legislature? Would you say you are extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely or unlikely to vote? RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 EXTREMELY LIKELY 0.0 0....... 0..... 0. VERY LIKELY..... 0.0. 0...0. 0. 0. 0. SOMEWHAT LIKELY..........0. 0. 0..
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - As you may know, there are several statewide amendments and initiatives on the ballot this November. I am now going to read to you the ballot language of some of those ballot questions. T. The following is language for a ballot question that would create a single-payer, universal healthcare system in Colorado. This one is also a little long, so please listen carefully. "Shall state taxes be increased by $ billion dollars annualy establishing a health care payment system to fund health care for all individuals whose primary residence is in Colorado, And create a governmental entity called Colorado Care to admnister the health care payment system, providing that colorado care be managed first by an appointed board of trustees, Colorado Care will be exempt from the taxpayer bill of rights, and an initial tax will be assessed on the total payroll from employers, payroll income from employees, and nonpayroll income at varying rates, And increasing these tax rates when coloardo care begins making health care payments for beneficiaries, and authorizing the board to increase taxes in specified circumstances, capping the total amount of income subject to taxation, Requiring Colorado Care to contract with health care providers to pay for specific health care benefits, and transferring administration of the medicaid and children's basic health programs and all other state and federal health care funds to the responsibility of Colorado Care, And suspending the operations of the colorado health benefit exchange and transferring it's resources to Colorado Care." If the election were being held today, would you vote YES and approve this ballot measure, or would you vote NO and reject it? GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 AL YES..0..0.0......0.... 0...... AL NO..0 0..0.0. 0.......0... 0. 0 0. 0... DEFINITELY YES 0.. 0...0 0... 0... 0..0..... 0.. 0. PROBABLY YES... 0 0..0.....0....0. 0......0 DEFINITELY NO.... 0.... 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.....0.. 0.0.. PROBABLY NO. 0. 0. 0.. 0........... 0..... UNDECIDED.... 0. 0. 0............... DON'T KNOW REFUSED.0 0. 0. 0... 0. 0. 0..0 0.... 0. 0.. 0..
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - As you may know, there are several statewide amendments and initiatives on the ballot this November. I am now going to read to you the ballot language of some of those ballot questions. T. The following is language for a ballot question that would create a single-payer, universal healthcare system in Colorado. This one is also a little long, so please listen carefully. "Shall state taxes be increased by $ billion dollars annualy establishing a health care payment system to fund health care for all individuals whose primary residence is in Colorado, And create a governmental entity called Colorado Care to admnister the health care payment system, providing that colorado care be managed first by an appointed board of trustees, Colorado Care will be exempt from the taxpayer bill of rights, and an initial tax will be assessed on the total payroll from employers, payroll income from employees, and nonpayroll income at varying rates, And increasing these tax rates when coloardo care begins making health care payments for beneficiaries, and authorizing the board to increase taxes in specified circumstances, capping the total amount of income subject to taxation, Requiring Colorado Care to contract with health care providers to pay for specific health care benefits, and transferring administration of the medicaid and children's basic health programs and all other state and federal health care funds to the responsibility of Colorado Care, And suspending the operations of the colorado health benefit exchange and transferring it's resources to Colorado Care." If the election were being held today, would you vote YES and approve this ballot measure, or would you vote NO and reject it? RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 AL YES. 0......... 0.0..0. AL NO.............. DEFINITELY YES 0.....0.0........ PROBABLY YES.. 0.. 0.. 0.. 0..0... DEFINITELY NO..... 0. 0.0 0.... 0. 0.0 0. PROBABLY NO....0.......... UNDECIDED....0... 0....0.. DON'T KNOW REFUSED.0 0.... 0.... 0.
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or unmarried and living with a partner? GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 IED 0............ 0..... SINGLE NEVER BEEN IED 0 0.......... 0... 0. 0..0... DIVORCED... 0. 0.. 0....0.0.. 0...0..0. WIDOWED......0...........0.. UNIED LIVING WITH A PARTNER 0.0...........0....0... SEPARATED 0. 0. 0. 0.. 0. 0. 0. 0..0 0..0 0. NO OPINION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0..
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or unmarried and living with a partner? RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 IED 0... 0...0... 0.. 0. 0 0.. SINGLE NEVER BEEN IED 0 0. 0. 0.0..0.... 0... 0.. DIVORCED..0....... 0...0..0 WIDOWED. 0.....0....... 0. UNIED LIVING WITH A PARTNER 0.0...0 0.....0... SEPARATED 0. 0.. 0. 0.. 0. 0. NO OPINION 0. 0..0 0. 0.. 0. 0.
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. Which of the following age groups applies to you? GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 -.0. 0.... 0. 0....0.0. 0... -.0. 0....0 0 0... 0.0...... -.0..0 0 0.. 0.. 0. 0... 0..... - 00 0.0.. 0 0.... 00.... 0.... 0. + 0.0...... 0.. 0.. 0. 0..0.. UNSURE NO OPINION
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. Which of the following age groups applies to you? RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 -.0 0.0..0. 0 0...0.0.....0 -.0.......... 0..0. -.0.....0...... 0.. - 00 0.0 0 0.. 0.....0 0..0.0.0 00. + 0.0.0... 0...0.... 0. UNSURE NO OPINION
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. What is your racial or ethnic background? GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 WHITE.0. 0........ 0 0... 0.0....... HISPANIC.0.... 0...0 0... 0......... 0. BLACK AFRICAN AMERICAN 0.0.. 0.......... 0..... OTHER.... 0. 0. 0.... 0. 0. 0.. 0..0 0.... 0. DON'T KNOW REFUSED 0. 0..0 0. 0. 0. 0. 0..0 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. What is your racial or ethnic background? RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 WHITE.0... 0.. 0. 0... HISPANIC.0.. 0....... BLACK AFRICAN AMERICAN 0.0 0.0..0... OTHER.. 0. 0... 0.. 0.. DON'T KNOW REFUSED 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 FEMALE 0.0 0....0.... MALE 0.0 0 00....0....
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - T. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman? RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 FEMALE 0.0.....0.0. 0...... MALE 0.0... 0..0.0. 0......
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - REGION GENDER~MARITAL AGE UBLICANS OCRATS EPENDENT -- -------- ---- ---- ---- AL SING AL 00 0 00 0 SING - - - - PLUS 00 0 0 CD.0.... 0.0. 0.0.0.. 0. 0. 0...... 0. 0. CD 0.0.........0....... 0 0... 0. CD.0.... 0............0... 0. CD 0.0 0... 0...0...0 0 0.0. 0.....0....0 CD.0... 0........ 0......0... CD 0.0....0...... 0.....0 0.... 0. CD.0.... 0... 0...0 0.. 0...... 0..
Colorado General Election Survey, August th - st, 0, 00N,.% MoE, Weighted Results, Magellan Strategies, Boxelder St. Suite 00, Louisville, CO 00, 0-- Table - REGION RACE REGION MODE ------ ---- - AL WHIT HISP BLCK OTHR CD CD CD CD CD CD CD LL CELL AL 00 0 0 0 0 CD.0...0...0 CD 0.0... 0.. CD.0. 0. 0.... CD 0.0 0..0. 0.. CD.0..... CD 0.0....0 0. 0.0 CD.0 0......