The Offshore World and the Looming Collapse of the Welfare State. October 2013 Total Wealth Symposium
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1 The Offshore World and the Looming Collapse of the Welfare State October 2013 Total Wealth Symposium
2 The Upcoming Fiscal Crisis! Because of poorly designed entitlement programs and demographics, the western world is in deep trouble.! Politicians probably won t deal with problems until they face Greek-style fiscal chaos.! Let s look at numbers from the Bank for International Settlements, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and International Monetary Fund.
3 U.S. Debt 450 Percent of GDP
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6 In other Words
7 What s the Response to Crisis?! Is Naomi Klein (author of The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism) right that chaos leads to free-market reform?! Or is Robert Higgs (author of Crisis and Leviathan: Critical Episodes in the Growth of American Government ) right that chaos leads to more statism?! Some evidence on both sides, with Chile and former Soviet Bloc offering some hope for libertarians and other advocates for freedom.
8 What Should Be Done?! The answer is simple just restrain the growth of spending.! Nominal GDP almost always expands, even in stagnant economies.! Key to long-run fiscal sanity is to have government grow slower than the private sector.! Enables a virtuous cycle for both numerator and denominator of Gov t/gdp.
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10 Which Direction for America?! Considerable reason for pessimism.! American exceptionalism is disappearing as a growing share of the population think it is morally and constitutionally acceptable to steal using untrammeled majoritarianism.! Washington is controlled by a powerful alliance of politicians, bureaucrats, interest groups and lobbyists.! What incentive is there to fix the problems?
11 But there is Room for Optimism! The fiscal crisis in Europe has had a sobering impact - on both elites and ordinary people.! The House of Representatives has voted three years in a row for genuine entitlement reform.! The Tea Party has had an impact, dramatically slowing the growth of government.! When all other options are exhausted, politicians may do the right thing.
12 The Offshore Escape Option! If politicians don t do the right thing, taxes will soar and the economy will stagnate, eventually causing a Greek-style crisis but with nobody to bail out America.! One of the few prudent steps to protect against this future crisis is offshore diversification.! Tax competition is very beneficial, but politicians are trying to stamp it out.
13 What Is Tax Competition?! Tax competition exists when governments feel pressure to control tax demands because they know people and businesses can shift economic activity to jurisdictions with better fiscal policy.! Tax competition exists best when nations have territorial tax systems or when nations have worldwide tax systems that can t be enforced.
14 Does Tax Competition Matter?! Tax competition means lower tax rates.! In the past 30 years, tax rates have fallen by significant amounts.! The average top personal income tax rate fell from percent to percent.! The average corporate tax rate dropped from 48 percent to 24 percent.
15 Average OECD Top Tax Rates 70 Average top tax rate in OECD nations
16 Additional Evidence! Tax competition means less double taxation.! Many nations also eased the degree of double taxation on interest, dividends, and capital gains.! Death taxes and wealth taxes were reduced or eliminated.! Number of flat tax jurisdictions jumped from 3 to about 30.
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18 Growing List of Flat Tax Nations
19 Tax Competition Is Being Eroded! The high-tax nations won a significant battle in the past couple of years.! All jurisdictions now agree, at least in theory, that there is an obligation to enforce the bad tax laws of high-tax nations.! Jurisdictions now need a minimum number of TIEAs to avoid persecution.! There is a peer-review process dominated by high-tax nations.
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22 Prepare for More Demands! Breaking down financial privacy and imposing TIEAs is just the beginning.! The goal is to curtail and then eliminate all tax planning.! A three-prong threat unilateral (such as FATCA), bilateral (TIEAs), and multilateral (OECD, EU STD, etc).! The end goal is to enable higher tax burdens and bigger government.
23 Appeasement Doesn t Work: Don t Feed an Alligator
24 He ll Want Another Meal Tomorrow and Bring a Friend
25 Obama s Sloppy Approach! Obama said that more than 12,000 companies are registered at Ugland House, making it either the biggest building in the world or biggest tax scam in the world.
26 Cayman Islands vs. Delaware
27 Big Government Inevitably
28 Erodes America s Social Capital
29 Conclusion! For more info!
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