The New Silk Road (BRI): looking beyond China-Europe rail services

Transcription

1 The New Silk Road (BRI): looking beyond China-Europe rail services Theo Notteboom Chair professor, Maritime Institute, Ghent University, Belgium Director CEMIL and Research Professor, China Institute of FTZ Supply Chain, Shanghai Maritime University, China Professor, University of Antwerp and Antwerp Maritime Academy, Belgium Co-Director, Port Economics.eu 22ste MARITIEM SYMPOSIUM "Verander of verdwijn: havens en scheepvaart in een disruptieve omgeving" Gent, 23 mei 2018 The idea of revitalizing the Silk route/road is not new at all. China took ownership of the idea in 2013: OBOR initiative launched in September/October 2013 by Xi Jinping to break the connectivity bottleneck 2 1

2 The why of One Belt, One Road (OBOR) Historical/cultural dimension: historic Silk Road + maritime ventures of Zheng He Geo-economic dimension: strengthen economic relationships with the ASEAN region, Central Asia and European countries search for growth given slower economic growth in China channel foreign investments of Chinese companies + currency integration (RMB) Geo-political dimension: Idea of economic integration supported by political (inter)action Domestic: preserve its territorial integrity Initially also aimed at bypassing Russia economically, politically, and geographically now co-operation with Russia Wrong impression that OBOR initiative is ultimately about transportation infrastructure. 雷声大, 雨点小 (big thunder, small raindrops) 4 2

3 One Belt, One Road (OBOR), later renamed to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) March 2015: One Belt, One Road initiatives action plan: transportation infrastructure plays an ancillary role to financial, trade, and industrial policy integration. Mid May 2017: five key areas of co-operation: (1) policy coordination; (2) facilities connectivity; (3) unimpeded trade; (4) financial integration; (5) people-to-people bonds. Already 60 countries involved (impacting 4.4 billion people) China has established 77 overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones in 23 countries along OBOR. 3,000 Chinese enterprises have set up operations in such zones BRI Bottomless funding possibilities? SilkRoad Fund: USD 40 bln Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): registered capital of USD 100 bln (of whichusd 50 blnfromchina) New Development Bank: USD 50 bln; CITIC-group: USD 113 bln support, Bank of China Etc.. Project risks and danger for ending up with white elephants Cross-scale platform approach in project (industrial park/ftz/port) development: State-owned-enterprise-run entity (e.g. by China Merchants Group) provides G2G (government to governmetn) platform, but still market-based management and operations; State-owned enterprise ready to accept risks/losses in start-up phase 3

4 Land-based Silk Road Economic Belt (Belt) and 21st century Maritime Silk Road (Road) (source: Merics) Belt = integrated economic corridor rather than a transportation link. Maritime road = adapt sea transport to new patterns of global trade. 7 Terminal involvement of CMHI and Cosco Shipping Ports (status in May 2018) 4

5 The ambitions of Piraeus Fast grower in container business: > 4 million TEU in 2017 compared to 880,000 TEU in 2010 China-Europe Land-Sea Express Hungary Serbia 2016: Cosco acquires majority stake in Piraeus port million euro for the initial acquisition of a 51% Another 88 million euro within five years for the remaining 16%, provided it has implemented the agreed investments in the port. Macedonia Greece Connecting Piraeus via rail: Rail link between Budapest and Belgrade financed by Chinese companies, which connects to Macedonia and Piraeus 9 The ambitions of Venice New Container Terminal and Offshore Terminal VOOPS: Venice Offshore Onshore Port System New CT (1.4 mlnteu 1st phase) Venice in 2016: 605,875 TEU Lagoon January 2017: 4 million euro contract awarded to 4C3 (led by Chinese CCCC group) to make final design Offshore facility 10 5

6 (A) Trans-Siberian line (2016, TransContainerfigures) Transit containers: 258,000 TEU (+18.8%) Transit containers w.r.t. China: 153,000 TEU (+89%) China EU: 102,000 TEU (+ 98%) EU China: 51,000 TEU (+72.5%) Cargo: - consumer goods (19%, +94%) - metal goods (18%, +51%) - chemicals (15%, +99%) - auto parts (12%) - machinery (11%) - ferrous metals (7%). Eurasian landbridges (B) Many new China-Europe services via Russia: January 2008: Beijing-Hamburg Container Express (15 days, 6,200 miles) Summer 2011: Chongqing Duisburg/Antwerp/Rotterdam (16-18 days; 11,179km) September 2013: Suzhou Manzhouli Warsaw Rail service (13 days, 11,200 km) January 2015 Yiwu(Zhejiang Province) Madrid (3 weeks, 8,111 miles) August 2015: Xiamen-Chengdu-Europe Express Rail to Lodz in Poland (15 days) September 2015: first trial train Changsha-Hamburg (15 days) April 2016: Wuhan-Lyon (16 days, > 11,000 km) January 2017: Yiwu(Zhejiang Province) London May 2018: Tangshan port - Antwerp Others: Zhengzhou (Henan)-Hamburg, Kunming-Rotterdam, Harbin-Hamburg, Chengdu-Rotterdam, Urumqi-Altynkol-Riga-Rotterdam, etc.. Volume passing from China to Europe across Kazakhstan: 22,300 TEU in 2014; 47,400 TEU in 2015; 104,600 in 2016 (data Kazakhstan Railways KTZ). 1.7 million TEU in 2020? M8 2017: x1.5 growth Russian RZD plans to invest $6 bln by 2020 to increase speed (E) New intermodal opportunities: railsea and rail-air (B) Shipping via Suez Canal: 14.4 mlnteu in 2016 East West: 9.8 mln TEU; West East: 4.7 mln TEU (C) Preparations for new services via Iran and Turkey: February 15, 2016: first train between eastern Zhejiang Province and Tehran. Turkey needs to complete a 75km section of rail between Turkey and Georgia. (D) Operational and administrative issues Different gauges than Russia, unified CIM/SMGS railway bill, General Terms and Conditions TransEurasia, digitalization, etc. 11 Bottleneck: Malzewicze- Brest border crossing Time loss of a few days up to weeks Khorgos-Average transshipment time : 47minutesfor full train. Central role of Kazakhstan in rail connectivity Khorgos Source: adapted from Karl Gheysen, Khorgos Gateway 6

7 Trans-Caspian international transport route Source: Some other key policies of China China will reduce the number of SOEs: impact on further concentration in shipping and logistics (cf. Cosco) China-wide implementation of new policies based on FTZ pilot projects (black list): larger investment opportunities for foreign firms? Large provincial port groups are being formed and are becoming more international 7

8 Conclusions BRI is a comprehensive geo-economic development framework initiated by China Distinguish between short/medium term effects and longer term effects (impact lower transport costs, economic integration of China with Central Asia, etc..) China is a civilization state dealing with nation states More Chinese terminal investments in Europe by national champions Role of windows of opportunity to effective control Reciprocal engagement of partners in development BRI Belt: sea-to-sea vs. (inland) market-to-market Road: growing role of Med? 15 SMU - Center for Eurasian Maritime & Inland Logistics?????@???.cn theo.notteboom@ugent.be 16 8