How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth?

Transcription

1 EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth?

2 Forward Despite everything, investors remain committed to Europe Europe in 2015 remained under tension and mired in several crises: tense geopolitics with Russia and several foreign fronts, historically low con dence in E institutions, terrorist attac s in France and elgium, and uncontrolled migration everywhere. Moreover, several economies remained in a dramatic state and on a very dif cult recovery path. Destination Europe nevertheless experienced a record year in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI). With 14% more projects, it hosted 5,0 international locations, creating 21, new jo s according to EY s European attractiveness survey. And the European FDI story is also reinforced y the dynamics of mergers and ac uisitions, up % from Despite an uncertain usiness environment and geopolitical ris s, investors continue to see Europe as a relatively safe haven, with 82% expecting investment prospects to improve or remain the same over the next three years. Europe s strengths are its digital and logistical infrastructure, s illed la or force, and sta le political, legal and regulatory environments. owever, in exi le la or mar ets, high la or costs and complex corporate taxation regimes are relative investment turnoffs. So what happens next? Europe is indeed resilient, even in the face of headwinds. However, geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges are denting investor sentiment: our survey of 1,469 executives highlights that only 22% of the respondents have expansion plans for Europe in the immediate future. Contents 4 Europe s recovery continues 5 6 FDI origin: intra-european investment dominates Manufacturing, and nance and usiness services remain the drivers of FDI 2 EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth?

3 ey.com/attractiveness Simplify wherever possible: he general perception y the usiness community suggests a structure of layered governance and overregulation. o complete the ta leau, some countries are in the Eurozone and some are outside; some are mem ers of the European nion and other countries in Europe are not. In other words, the value proposition of Europe evo es a road range of perceptions and misperceptions, and ma es the selling of Europe a very daunting tas ; a tas made even more complicated y the fact that individual nations vie with one another for pole position to attract foreign capital and jo creation. Encourage innovation: A third of our respondents see digital industries as the preferred sector for Europe s growth in the coming years. Policy ma ers need to provide a more dynamic playing eld for new mar et entrants. he role of governments is essential in incu ating innovation in the region, investing in education and providing coordinated support for high-potential innovation. As the focus on innovation and digitization increases, usinesses may need to alter their usiness models to encourage innovation. usinesses will also need to adopt multicultural approaches to increase participation and access to the right talent pool. Maintain stability: ocal, regional and glo al con icts will test the resolve of Europe s governments and usinesses to maintain core, sta ility and community principles. Recent security concerns across Europe highlight the urgent need to collectively and vigorously act to prevent further acts of terrorism at home and a road. evertheless, history has endowed most of modern Europe with strong roots, anchored in a tradition of social justice, education, tolerance and political freedom. Europe s value proposition needs to stay the course to continue to e the o ject of attention from usiness, investors and its own citizens. Marc Lhermitte EY Advisory, lo al lead Attractiveness and Competitiveness Points to ponder for governments and usinesses European FDI in 2015: what the num ers say Methodology EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth? 3

4 Europe s recovery continues In 2015, Europe built on the momentum it established in 2014 and achieved a record level of 5,083 projects (up 14%) and 217,666 jobs (up 17%) created by foreign direct investment (FDI). This was at a time when Europe was facing multiple head winds, such as the migration crisis, sluggish growth and terrorist attac s in France and elgium. In part, the numbers re ect the share of capital allocated to developed mar ets over emerging mar ets, but it also re ects an increased focus by national policy-ma ers on FDI as a route to economic growth. FDI projects and jobs in Europe FDI jobs (in thousands) FDI projects CAGR* % CAGR % 3,758 3,909 3,797 3,957 4,448 5,083 *CAGR is compounded annual growth rate. Western European destinations maintain the lead, but there was strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe The top three countries in terms of FDI project numbers the, Germany and France together account for 51% of all FDI projects and a third of all jobs created. Western Europe (WE) continues to dominate FDI projects with a 77% share (81% in 2014). Other ey FDI destinations, such as Spain, the etherlands, elgium and Ireland, all posted positive growth in 2015, but countries in Central and Eastern Europe grew almost four times as fast as their counterparts in Western Europe. As far as jobs are concerned, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) saw the creation of 50% of all FDI jobs in Europe, than s to the strength of the region in manufacturing, which accounted for 69% of the FDI projects in the region. Poland, Russia and Romania achieved the highest number of jobs created. Thirty-four percent growth in FDI in CEE compared with 9% in WE Top 10 countries by FDI projects Percentage change UK 1, % Germany % France % Spain % Netherlands % Belgium % Poland % Russia % Turkey % Ireland % Others 1,123 1,032 9% Total 5,083 4,448 14% Top 10 countries by FDI job creation Percentage change UK 42,336 31,344 35% Poland 19,651 15,485 27% Germany 17,126 11,890 44% Russia 13,672 18,248 25% France 13,639 12,579 8% Romania 12,746 10,892 17% Hungary 11,741 4, % Ireland 10,772 7,306 47% Serbia 10,631 5, % Slovakia 9,564 8,012 19% Others 55,788 60,620 8% Total 2,17,666 1,86,348 17% What our respondents say Which are the top countries for FDI in Europe? Germany UK France Netherlands Poland 69 % 43 % 36 % 19 % 15 % Source: EY 2016 European attractiveness survey (total respondents: 738). 4 EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth?

5 ey.com/attractiveness European cities: signs of potential change in city attractiveness Top urban areas for investors in Greater London Greater Paris Dusseldorf Top urban areas for FDI growth in 2015* Oberbayern (Munich) Berlin Dublin EY 2016 European attractiveness survey (total respondents: 1,469). *From the cities with projects greater than 50. What our respondents say +1 % FDI projects Year over year growth What are the most attractive European cities? % Percentage points (change from 2015) % London 57 % +5 % Paris 43 % +14 % % Berlin 29 % Amsterdam 15 % +8 % Barcelona 11 % +5 % % Munich 11 % +4 % Frankfurt 10 % 1 % Madrid % 46 % Brussels 7 % 0 % % Rome 7 % +5 % New entrant The top of the list is unchanged, with London once again dominating the FDI perception and reality rankings. As Europe slowly recovers and regions and cities strive for growth, competition is increasing and investors are being presented with more choices. FDI origin: intra-european investment dominates Intra-European projects continue to dominate FDI activity (54% of all projects). The US continued to favor the region, with nance and business services making up the bulk of its FDI activity. The retail and hospitality sector saw a big jump in FDI from the US (54 projects, up 80%). Asia is also increasing its FDI ows: China invested in 238 projects (up 2% on 2015) primarily in the UK and Germany, and created 8,917 jobs (down 25%). India s FDI was also noteworthy, with 37% more projects than last year. India was among the top three non-european investing countries in the nance and business services sector (55 projects, up 22%). Intra-European FDI projects continue to surge; Americas at distant second Top investing regions into Europe Number of projects 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Intra-European Americas Asia-Paci c Top industries (based on 2015 projects) 1, % 18% 11 % % % 66 8 % 59 2 % % 15 % 60 % Percentage change in 2015 vs Manufacturing Finance and business services Transport and communications Retail and hospitality Construction 84 % 90 % EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth? 5

6 Manufacturing, and nance and business services remain the drivers of FDI Manufacturing Finance and business services Transport and communications Retail and hospitality ,241 1,650 1,989 2,495 CAGR ( ) 5 % 6 % 9 % 12 % Top 3 sectors within industries in 2015 Machinery and equipment Automotive Food Software Business services Financial intermediation Other transport services Land transport Telecommunications* Retail Wholesale Hotels and restaurants Percentage change over % 12 % 2 % % 27 % 8 % 3 % 95 % 2 % 25 % 44 % 14 % *Telecommunications and post. Favorable exchange rates and cheaper oil added to Europe s industrial competitiveness. However, Germany, the UK and France saw little change in industrial activity, with growth focused in the CEE region. Hungary (69 projects, up 103%), Poland (117 projects, up 34%), Turkey (105 projects, up 52%), Serbia (51 projects, up 76%) and Romania (51 projects, up 21%) drove FDI in manufacturing facilities. The UK extended its dominance in the nance and business services sector (496 projects, up 22%). But Germany overtook the UK as the most attractive destination for transportation and communications projects (81 projects, up 72%), while the UK supplanted Germany as the number one destination for retail and hospitality projects (43 projects, up 26%). The automotive sector drove manufacturing growth in Hungary and Poland, while machinery and equipment dominated in Turkey, Serbia and Romania. Investors increasingly focus on technology intensive investments Which business sectors will drive Europe's growth in the coming years? Information and communication technology Pharmaceutical industry and biotechnologies Energy and utilities Transport industry and automotive Banking, insurance, wealth and asset management 10 % 25 % 24 % 24 % 21 % 18 % 19 % 20 % 31 % 35 % Source: EY 2016 European attractiveness survey (total respondents: 731). EY 2015 European attractiveness survey (total respondents: 808) as European cities improve their perception of being digital leaders Which cities in the world offer the best chance of producing the next tech giant? European cities London Berlin Paris Amsterdam 4 out of the top 15 cities which can produce the next tech giant are European 2016 rank (improvement in ranking from 2015) (+3) 6 (no change) 10 (+1) 13 (+5) 10 % Percentage points (change from 2015) 23 % +6 % Source: EY 2016 European attractiveness survey (total respondents: 1,469). EY 2015 European attractiveness survey (total respondents: 808). 8 % 5 % 1 % +1 % +3 % 6 EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth?

7 ey.com/attractiveness What attracts investors to Europe? Despite an uncertain business environment and a number of geopolitical risks, investors continue to see the region as an attractive destination, with 36% respondents expecting investment prospects to improve over the next three years. Europe s strengths are its digital and logistics infrastructure, skilled labor force and stable political, legal and regulatory environments. However, in exible labor markets, high labor costs and complex corporate taxation regimes are relative investment turnoffs. How attractive are the following features of Europe? Strengths Telecommunications infrastructure Local labor skills level Transport and logistics infrastructure Political, legal and regulatory environment* 82 % 79 % 77 % 68 % Europe s FDI attractiveness outlook over the next three years Investors who say it will improve 36 % 46 % Investors who say it will remain unchanged Areas for improvement Flexibility of labor legislation Labor costs Corporate taxation 48 % 44 % 43 % Next three years Source: EY 2016 European attractiveness survey (total respondents: 1,469). *Stability and transparency of political, legal and regulatory environment. and what is keeping them away? Geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges are denting investor sentiment. As per our survey, investment prospects have declined in the top European destinations in the immediate future. In the UK, only 23% investors have plans to establish or expand operations over the next year, down from 27% last year. Similarly, in Germany, only 23% of the investors (down from 25% in 2015) have investment plans. Investment plans in France have taken the worst hit with only 24% investors keen on investing, down from 35% last year. Europe faces erce competition from other regions when it comes to attracting foreign investors. Europeans need to convince the investors as to why Europe still deserves the close attention of corporations from around the world. Our conversations with multinationals and entrepreneurs point to some very clear, very urgent yet very complex areas of reform, to be tackled together by governments and businesses. Does your company have plans to establish or expand operations over the next year? Top FDI destinations Germany UK France* % 23 % 27 % 23 % 24 % 23 % Source: EY 2016 European attractiveness survey (for the UK: 444, Germany: 204, France: 205), EY 2015 European attractiveness survey (for the UK: 406, Germany: 202, France: 206) *Survey question for France in 2015 In general, does your group intend to establish or develop its business in France? EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth? 7

8 Points to ponder for governments and businesses 1 Europe goes digital: Less than 1% of our survey respondents feel that digital will drive their business growth in the coming years. This is despite increasing focus of European Commission (EC) on digital. EC will be investing close to 50b over the next ve years in its efforts to create a digital single market. For governments Europe s focus on creating a digital single market will reduce technology barriers. To capitalize on this, European cities must invest in building their brand, attracting people with the right skills and encouraging inward investment. How can governments increase their collaboration with business to create an appropriate regulatory framework? How can European cities enhance their brand to increase investor interest? How can governments build a digital ecosystem that will promote innovation? For businesses As the focus on digital increases, businesses may need to alter their business models to encourage greater innovation. Businesses will also need to adopt multicultural approaches in order to increase participation and to attract people with the right skills. How can businesses hire the right people to drive greater innovation? How can businesses partner with governments to provide effective cybersecurity and data protection for everyone? How can businesses identify gaps in their digital strategies? How can businesses speed up their adoption of new technologies? 2 For governments 3 For governments Increased focus on innovation: Many of our respondents (35%) expect digital industries to drive Europe s growth in the coming years. Policy makers need to provide a level playing eld for existing and new market entrants. The role of governments in incubating innovation in the region is essential. Governments need to invest in education and training, and must provide coordinated support for high-potential innovation. How can we build an ecosystem that encourages entrepreneurship and innovation? How can we lower the barriers to entry for entrepreneurs? How can we lighten the regulatory load? How can governments co-invest? How can we encourage public private partnership? Improve taxation environment: Forty-four percent of investors consider the European corporate taxation environment to be unattractive. Large differences in tax rates among European countries from tax havens to high-taxing economies are unhelpful. Moving toward greater tax rate regularization would not only simplify the environment for doing business, but would also help to prevent tax evasion. What optimal tax structure can the European countries adopt to attract investments? What can European countries learn from their competitors in terms of successful tax measures? For businesses For businesses Developing an innovative product or technology requires the investment of time and money. Europe is home to some of the highest-ranked universities in the world. How can businesses tap that intellectual talent? Companies need to identify collaboration opportunities, nancing options and any government schemes that can help them commercialize their offerings. How can companies revamp outmoded business models and reach out to new customers? What are the entry and exit options? How can businesses access public and private funding? How can businesses con rm regulatory and tax compliance? Corporate taxation remains a big obstacle for investors. Within Europe, different countries follow different tax regimes, making it dif cult for investors to form a single market strategy for Europe. How can businesses take advantage of the different tax structures across Europe? Europe is working toward an EU-wide oor on corporate taxation: how can businesses prepare for this change? How can businesses work effectively in an ever-changing tax environment? 8 EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth?

9 ey.com/attractiveness 4 Europe cannot rest on its laurels: Only 22% of our survey respondents are looking to expand or set up operations in Europe in the year ahead. This is down from 32% in last year s survey. For governments The uncertainties posed by a possible UK exit from the EU, continuing high unemployment in some areas, the migration crisis and slow growth are drags on FDI growth. How can Europe show greater unity in tackling some of its regional challenges? How can it help to create greater geopolitical stability? How can it reduce red tape? How can it improve its brand on the global stage, promoting its record on democracy, social justice, free trade and transparency? For businesses Businesses are worried that they are operating in a fragile business and consumer environment with de ation weighing on market sentiment. What unique strengths does Europe offer investors? How can businesses make best use of Europe s advantageous time zones, global nancial centers and large consumer market? What can businesses learn from the best practices in other countries? How can businesses get access to better market information? How can businesses better capitalize on opportunities to create value for stakeholders? European FDI in 2015: what the numbers say The number of FDI jobs increased to over 200,000 for the rst time. The US created 27 % of FDI jobs, the highest share of any country. Europe received 5,083 FDI projects, a new record Germany was the only country to see continuous growth in the number of FDI projects over the last decade. 54 % of FDI projects were intra-european. The UK saw an increase of 20 % in its number of FDI projects, the biggest increase in the past nine years. The UK, Germany and France, together received of total FDI projects. 51 % 36 The UK, Poland and Germany account for of total % FDI jobs. EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth? 9

10 Leading industries for FDI investments in Europe Top industries FDI projects FDI jobs Top sectors within industries Top destinations for industries Percentage change Percentage change Sectors Projects Percentage change Countries Projects Percentage change Manufacturing 2,495 2,259 10% 1,35,202 1,25,210 8% Machinery and equipment % Germany 459 1% Automotive % UK 355 7% Food 224 2% France 333 6% Chemicals % Russia % Pharmaceuticals 160 5% Belgium 130 2% Finance and business services 1,650 1,487 11% 48,616 37,550 29% Software 694 6% UK % Business services % Germany % Financial intermediation 198 8% France 161 9% Scienti c research % Netherlands 83 65% Insurance and pension 79 0% Ireland 73 38% Transport and communications % 12,636 10,516 20% Other transport services 138 3% Germany 81 72% Land transport % UK 61 2% Telecommunications and post 80 2% France 57 36% Air transport 56 81% Netherlands % Water transport 46 92% Spain 39 11% Retail and hospitality % 12,418 7,987 55% Retail 95 25% UK 43 26% Wholesale 56 44% Germany 30 19% Hotels and restaurants Sale and repair of motor vehicles 6 14% France 15 88% 6 50% Finland % Spain 12 33% Others % 8,794 5,085 73% Total 5,083 4,448 14% 2,17,666 1,86,348 17% EY s attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth? What is the European attractiveness survey? EY s attractiveness surveys are widely recognized by our clients, media and major public stakeholders as a key source of insight into FDI. Examining the attractiveness of a particular region or country as an investment destination, the surveys are designed to help businesses make investment decisions and governments remove barriers to growth. A two-step methodology analyzes both the reality and perception of FDI in the country or region. Findings are based on the views of representative panels of international and local opinion leaders and decision-makers. For more information, please visit: ey.com/attractiveness. 10 EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth?

11 ey.com/attractiveness Methodology The real attractiveness of Europe for foreign investors Our evaluation of the reality of FDI in Europe is based on EY Global Investment Monitor (GIM). This database tracks those FDI projects that have resulted in the creation of new facilities and new jobs. By excluding portfolio investments and M&A, it shows the reality of investment in manufacturing and services by foreign companies across the continent. Data is widely available on FDI. An investment in a company is normally included in FDI data if the foreign investor acquires more than 10% of the company s equity and takes a role in its management. FDI includes equity capital, reinvested earnings and intracompany loans. But our gures also include investments in physical assets, such as plant and equipment. And this data provides valuable insights into: How FDI projects are being undertaken What activities are being invested in Where projects are located Who is carrying out these projects The GIM is a leading online information provider, tracking inward investment across Europe. This agship business information tool from EY is the most detailed source of data on cross-border investment projects and trends throughout Europe. The GIM is frequently used by government bodies, private sector organizations and corporations looking to identify signi cant trends in employment, industry, business and investment. The GIM database focuses on investment announcements, the number of new jobs created and, where identi able, the associated capital investment. Projects are identi ed through the daily monitoring of more than 10,000 news sources. To con rm the accuracy of the data collected, the research team aims to directly contact more than 70% of the companies undertaking these investments. The following categories of investment projects are excluded from GIM: M&A and joint ventures (unless these result in new facilities or new jobs being created) License agreements Retail and leisure facilities, hotels and real estate* Utilities (including telecommunications networks, airports, ports and other xed infrastructure)* Extraction activities (ores, minerals and fuels)* Portfolio investments (pensions, insurance and nancial funds) Factory and other production replacement investments (e.g., replacing old machinery without creating new employment) Not-for-pro t organizations (charitable foundations, trade associations and government bodies) The perceived attractiveness of Europe and its competitors for foreign investors We de ne the attractiveness of a country or area as the combination of its image, investors level of con dence in it as an investment destination and the perception of its ability to provide the most competitive bene ts for FDI. The research was conducted by the CSA Institute from February to April 2016, via telephone interviews with a representative group of 1,469 international decision-makers. Our sample group included representatives from: European businesses 48% North American businesses 33% Asian businesses 15% South American businesses 1% Middle Eastern businesses 1% Businesses from other regions 2% Overall, 65% of the 1,469 companies surveyed have a presence in Europe. And of the non-european companies, 30% have established operations in Europe. * Investment projects by companies in these categories are included in certain instances e.g., details of a speci c new hotel investment or retail outlet would not be recorded, but if the hotel or retail company were to establish a headquarters facility or a distribution centre, this project would qualify for inclusion in the database. Disclaimer: FDI jobs data is available for 2,600 projects out of 5,083 projects (or 51%) in EY s Attractiveness survey Europe 2016 How can Europe s investors turn resilience into growth? 11

12 EY Assurance Tax Transactions Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no GBL Contacts Marc Lhermitte Partner, EY Advisory marc.lhermitte@fr.ey.com Ilse Blank Global Economic Programs Leader ilse.blank@za.ey.com Raffaella Santarsiere Global Press Relations raffaella.santarsiere@it.ey.com BMC Agency GA 0000_06562 ED None In line with EY s commitment to minimize its impact on the environment, this document has been printed on paper with a high recycled content. This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. The views of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the views of the global EY organization or its member firms. Moreover, they should be seen in the context of the time they were made. ey.com This survey was carried out by EY, under the direction of Marc Lhermitte, Mark Gregory, Ilse Blank, Marie-Armelle B nito, Liz Bolshaw, Gurbaksh S Gandhi, Prateek ain, Nishant Monga with the participation of Sofiene Sow, Ryan Abbey, Amal Prasad P S and Shine M A, and the collaboration of the teams of the CSA Institute.