Hampton Roads Transportation Accountability Commission Funding Strategies Advisory Committee

Transcription

1 Chair, WILLIAM D. SESSOMS, JR. Vice Chair, MICHAEL J. HIPPLE Executive Director, KEVIN B. PAGE Hampton Roads Transportation Accountability Commission Funding Strategies Advisory Committee August 26, :30 AM 11:30 AM The Regional Building Conference Room D/E, 723 Woodlake Drive, Chesapeake, Virginia AGENDA 9:30 am 1. Call to Order 2. Public Comment Period Limit 5 minutes per individual 3. Minutes of the February 16, 2016 FSAC Meeting (Attachment 3) Recommended Action: Approval 4. Draft SEIS Alternatives HRTAC Plan of Finance Scenarios Discussion/Workshop with Executive Director Page and PFM Consultant David Miller Recommended Action: Set Direction on Next Steps to HRTAC and Consultant Staff 5. New Business 6. Next Meeting: September 13, :30 a.m. 11:30 a.m. The Regional Building Board Room B 723 Woodlake Drive Chesapeake, VA Adjournment Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Meeting August 26, 2016 Agenda

2 Hampton Roads Transportation Accountability Commission (HRTAC) Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Summary Minutes of the February 16, 2016 Meeting The Hampton Roads Transportation Accountability Commission (HRTAC) Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Meeting was called to order at 9:33 a.m. in the HRTPO Regional Board Room B located at 723 Woodlake Drive, Chesapeake, Virginia, with the following in attendance: HRTAC Technical Advisory Committee Members in Attendance: Neal Crawford, Chair Harry Lester Jody Wagner, Vice Chair W. Sheppard Miller, III * James Koch Alan Witt HRTAC Executive Director Kevin Page Other Participants: Tom Inglima David Miller Camelia Ravanbakht James Utterback HRTAC Technical Advisory Committee Members Absent: Stacy Cummings Alan Parrott Joe Frank * Denotes Late Arrival or Early Departure Others Recorded Attending: Dianna Howard, Frank Papcin, Donna Sayegh (Citizens); Lynn Allsbrook (HA); Jeffrey Raliski (NO); Scott Forehand, Don Quisenberry (escribesolutions); George Consolvo (Kaufman & Canoles); Karen McPherson (McPherson Consulting); Tony Gibson (VDOT); Jordan Pascale (Virginian Pilot); Amber Randolph (Wilcox & Savage); Danetta Jankosky, Nancy Collins (HRPDC); Rob Case, Dale Stith, Chris Vaigneur (HRTPO) Call to Order Hampton Roads Transportation Accountability Commission Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Chair Neal Crawford called the meeting to order at 9:33 a.m. Public Comment Period (limit 5 minutes per individual) Mr. Frank Papcin stated his belief that tolls punish people for where they live and work. He added that tolls control people by forcing those less affluent to seek non tolled routes. He contended that HOV lanes do not work, requested that alternatives be considered, and noted that the role of HRTAC is transportation not control. HRTAC Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Meeting Page 1 February 16, 2016 Summary Minutes Prepared by S. Forehand, ESSI

3 Ms. Donna Sayegh informed the body of her attendance at General Assembly sessions. She opined that the Port has influence on tolling and shared her concern regarding tax credits for big corporations and the federal government involvement in local issues. Minutes of the December 15, 2015 and January 19, 2016 FSAC Meetings Mr. James Koch Moved to approve the minutes of the December 15, 2015 and January 19, 2016 FSAC meetings; seconded by Mr. Alan Witt. The Motion carried and the minutes were approved. HRTAC Plan of Finance Update /Discussion Executive Director Kevin Page reviewed important points regarding the status and progress of the FSAC and HRTAC along with close work with Dr. Camellia Ravanbakht and Robert Crum from TPO. HRTAC charged with developing a six year funding plan Is empowered to procure finance for road, bridge, and tunnel projects Six scenarios with variations of tolling examined Nine projects offered by TPO Funding sources identified by FSAC Transportation Improvement Programs maintained by CTB CTB authorized to select locally preferred alternatives Mr. Page announced that the goal is to make a recommendation to the Commission and to conduct a public hearing on March 14, He proposed that Chair Crawford for the next meeting consider an agenda item to discuss findings and public comments. Mr. Page reported that the results of his discussions around the region show interest in continuing to develop project readiness and especially the High Rise Bridge. He did point out two unknowns: (1) the outcome of the SEIS for harbor crossings and (2) General Assembly legislation on tolls and gas taxes. Mr. David Miller presented a six year funding program and pointed out that it includes no financing, but is a Pay/Go funding plan. Mr. Shepperd Miller asked for assurance of his interpretation that the plan is for three projects and a study: I 64 widening, I 264 interchange, and the High Rise Bridge all together and leaving 266/267 million dollars for future projects. He also asked if HB2 was still undecided. Mr. David Miller indicated that he is correct on all points. Mr. Shepperd Miller questioned VDOT funding, and Mr. James Utterback responded that 100 million dollars was in the plan. Mr. Shepperd Miller wondered whether it was a fair HRTAC Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Meeting Page 2 February 16, 2016 Summary Minutes Prepared by S. Forehand, ESSI

4 statement that the FSAC is recommending to continue work on some projects with existing funds and figure out the rest later, and Mr. David Miller agreed. Chair Crawford noted that the FSAC told HRTAC that a plan would be presented at their next meeting. Mr. Shepperd Miller expressed his concern that the region should have a stronger voice in how the money is spent. Dr. Koch questioned accuracy of estimates of regionally generated revenue and that if revenues decrease, which projects would be eliminated. Mr. David Miller suggested more than likely the last project started would be eliminated. Mr. Page pointed out that HRTAC does have bonding capacity. Mr. David Miller continued with the results of examination of projects which might be accomplished by He discussed harbor crossings, a bifurcated High Rise Bridge project, and other candidate projects. He spoke about bond issuance and HOT lane scenarios and noted the conclusion that it would take a long time to complete all nine projects. Chair Crawford asked if there would be tolling in the six year plan and why there was a bifurcation of the High Rise Bridge project. Mr. Utterback explained that without assurance of the ability to do a harbor crossing, it was felt that the High Rise Bridge project could be accomplished in phases. Mr. David Miller pointed out the High Rise Bridge project could be developed as HOT or not. Mr. Shepperd Miller asked if he was accurate in stating that phase one would represent a new two lane bridge ending up with six lanes. Mr. Utterback clarified that a new bridge would carry four lanes of traffic, two general and two managed with an eventual total of eight lanes, four in each direction. Mr. Miller asked about the bridge height, and Mr. Utterback expects 100 foot. Mr. Miller asked if managed lanes is the same as HOT lanes, and Mr. Utterback stated it could be HOV or HOT. Mr. Miller noted that HOT was more expensive due to the technology and though it returned net negative revenue. Mr. David Miller stated that it was positive net revenue but not enough to pay incremental cost of connector construction. Mr. Shepperd Miller opined that the purpose of HOT lanes is not financial revenue generation, but traffic management. Ms. Jodi Wagner shared concern that initial planning did not produce enough revenue and questioned whether legislative leaders are capable of passing legislation to improve the situation. Mr. Page expressed optimism regarding legislators finding a way to provide Hampton Roads with a high quality transportation network. HRTAC Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Meeting Page 3 February 16, 2016 Summary Minutes Prepared by S. Forehand, ESSI

5 Mr. Page questioned whether the information presented is sufficient for Dr. Ravanbakht to share with TPO. She stated that it was sufficient but that she needs to have HRTAC endorsement. Mr. Shepperd Miller noted that FSAC is not recommending any bonds or toll revenue it is 100% Pay Go. He suggested that everyone encourage decision makers to keep the projects in mind and that the plan is good but does not get the ultimate problem fixed. Mr. Utterback interjected with a suggestion that how to start a harbor crossing in 2018 be a consideration. Chair Crawford thanked him for his comments, added that he shared sentiments of Ms. Wagner and Mr. Miller, and noted that the FSAC was trying to make some progress. He offered hope that changes may occur and thus affording the possibility of beginning larger projects. Mr. Inglima added that absent a mandate from HRTAC, the plan works with available money. Mr. Shepperd Miller stated that he was uncomfortable without a clear mandate. Chair Crawford stated that the FSAC will again ask for specific direction from HRTAC. Mr. Shepperd Miller Moved to present the six year plan to HRTAC and request a public hearing for discussion of the projects; seconded by Mr. Koch. The Motion carried. Next Meeting The next HRTAC Funding Strategies Advisory Committee meeting is March 15, 2016 at 9:30 a.m. Adjournment With no further business to come before the Hampton Roads Transportation Accountability Commission Funding Strategies Advisory Committee, the meeting adjourned at 10:35 a.m. Neal Crawford HRTAC Technical Advisory Committee Chair HRTAC Funding Strategies Advisory Committee Meeting Page 4 February 16, 2016 Summary Minutes Prepared by S. Forehand, ESSI

6 HAMPTON ROADS TRANSPORTATION ACCOUNTABILITY COMMISSION Hampton Roads Crossing Study SEIS Alternatives

7 Hampton Roads SEIS VDOT and FHWA have released the draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) to reevaluate the Hampton Roads Crossing Study. HRTAC continues to advance project finance Funding setout for first phase in approved funding plan A long range view of all 9 projects developed in February 2016 needs to be updated Bond Counsel engaged to begin bond validation work Plan of Finance Consultant is developing funding scenarios based on the SEIS Alternatives Unlocking Hampton Roads 2

8 Road sections that comprise the alternatives retained for analysis 3Unlocking Hampton Roads 3

9 Alternative A Includes improvements to I 64 between I 664 and I 564 Would result in a consistent six lane facility Improvements to HRBT would be largely confined to existing right of way Cost $3.3B in 2016 dollars with a 40% Contingency 2034 Est VMT 56,556,

10 Alternative B Includes: I 64/HRBT, I 564, I 564 Connector, Route 164 Connector, Route 164 Cost $6.6B in 2016 dollars with a 40% Contingency 2034 Est VMT 56,767,

11 Alternative C Includes: I 664, I 664/I 564 Connectors, I 564, Route 164 Connector Includes dedicated transit lanes Cost $12.5B in 2016 dollars with a 40% Contingency 2034 Est VMT 56,816,

12 Alternative D Includes all components of Alternatives B and C Applies a more narrow footprint than Alternative C The different footprint allows for more information and options to be available to the study Cost $11.9B in 2016 dollars with a 40% Contingency 2034 Est VMT 57,040,

13 HRTAC Funding Plan HRTAC Funding Plan HRTAC Program Level Spreadsheet Approved March 17, 2016 Project Cost HRTAC Funding HB2 Funding VDOT Funding Previous Jan Dec 2016 Jan Dec 2017 Jan Dec 2018 Jan Dec 2019 Jan Dec 2020 Jan Dec 2021 Jan Dec 2022 Project Drawdowns I 64 Seg I UPC $122,551,685 $22,551,685 $100,000,000 ($28,429,982) ($54,657,495) ($26,976,631) ($12,487,577) $0 $0 $0 $0 I 64 Seg II UPC $189,707,675 $134,803,520 $54,904,155 $0 ($6,000,000) ($41,286,868) ($69,160,055) ($58,831,351) ($14,429,401) $0 $0 $0 I 64 Seg III UPC $311,303,820 $221,207,975 $90,095,845 $0 $0 ($800,000) ($4,400,000) ($19,958,448) ($93,367,598) ($101,050,838) ($84,916,017) ($6,810,919) I 64/264 UPC (Phase I) $157,142,416 $152,094,716 $5,047,700 ($5,054,702) ($18,201,817) ($49,211,271) ($58,130,306) ($26,544,320) $0 $0 $0 I 64/264 UPC (Phase II) $190,031,747 $178,428,847 $11,602,900 ($14,240,679) ($18,162,221) ($32,199,910) ($38,592,666) ($31,000,000) ($31,000,000) ($24,836,271) $0 I 64 Southside High Rise Br UPC (Phase I) $600,000,000 $600,000,000 $0 ($341,708) ($19,658,292) ($150,000,000) ($190,000,000) ($190,000,000) ($50,000,000) $0 $0 Hampton Roads Crossing Study UPC (SEIS) $6,352,527 $0 $6,352,527 $0 ($1,875,000) ($2,500,000) ($1,977,527) $0 $0 $0 $0 Future Projects Harbor Crossing Project (Phase I) $266,647,109 $266,647,109 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($266,647,109) Ft Eustis Interchange UPC TBD* $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 I 64 Southside High Rise Br Phase II TBD** $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Rte 460/58/13 Connector TBD $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 I 64/I 264 Interchange (Phase III) TBD $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total $1,843,736,979 $1,575,733,852 $145,000,000 $123,003,127 Total Yearly Costs ($54,067,071) ($154,641,693) ($334,447,867) ($379,977,875) ($355,341,319) ($182,050,838) ($109,752,288) ($273,458,028) Previous year carryover $0 $366,645,457 $509,377,420 $406,629, ,823,684 78,163,113 86,812, ,609,987 VDOT SYIP funding $32,376,717 $81,000,000 $9,626,410 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 HB2 Funding*** $0 $50,073,656 $50,174,030 $37,221,566 $7,530,748 Projected HRTAC Revenue**** Total: $1,677,560,513 $388,335,811 $166,300,000 $171,900,000 $177,950,000 $184,150,000 $190,700,000 $197,550,000 $200,674,702 Total Funding $420,712,528 $664,019,113 $741,077,859 $621,801,559 $433,504,432 $268,863,113 $284,362,275 $375,284,689 Residual Cash Flow $366,645,457 $509,377,420 $406,629,992 $241,823,684 $78,163,113 $86,812,275 $174,609,987 $101,826,662 * Planning Level Cost Estimate $180M to include 8 lane widening ** Planning Level Cost Estimate $800M $1.0B *** Anticipated HB2 Funds Pending CTB approval and award of funding June 2016 **** Previous revenues reflect HRTF ending balance on 12/31/2015 Latest HRTF revenue forecast from FY 2016 to FY 2022 received February 26, 2016 Assume equal amounts of revenues collected in two semi annual periods for each FY. Unlocking Hampton Roads Updated Cost Based Upon Contract Award Construction Phase Estimate Still Under Development Added by PFM Adjusted to VDOT Comments 3/4/2016 8

14 HRTAC 9 Project Plan to be Updated Unlocking Hampton Roads 9

15 Unlocking Hampton Roads /10/2016

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26 HRTAC Regional Financial Plan Harbor Crossing SEIS Alternatives FSAC Workshop Meeting August 26, 2016

27 August 2016 Analysis In February 2016, the HRTAC Funding Plan was approved. Approved Projects to be completed prior to 2022 include: I-64 Widening Projects (Segment 1, 2, & 3) I-64/I-264 Interchange (Phase I & II) I-64 Widening/High Rise Bridge ( High Rise Bridge ) Phase I SEIS Study expense In August 2016, VDOT released the Draft Hampton Roads Crossing Study SEIS. Four Harbor Crossing alternatives were identified. The objective of the August 2016 analysis is to determine the financial-constrained construction timeline for the four SEIS Alternatives following the construction of the Approved Projects. The HRTF estimate stream utilized in the February analysis were adjusted based on FY 2016 s actuals. Two tolling scenarios are analyzed: HOT all Harbor Crossing projects are HOT except fixed rates on I-564/I-664 Connectors (Patriots Crossing) No Toll no tolling on Harbor Crossing project except fixed rates on I-564/I-664 Connectors High Rise Bridge is HOT in the HOT scenario only 2

28 SEIS Alternatives Map 3

29 SEIS Alternatives Segments and Costs I-664 MMBT I-64 HRBT Seg. Description Seg. Description 1 from US 58 (Bowers Hill) to I North of HRBT 2 from VA 164 to US 58 (Bowers Hill) 9 From HRBT to I I-664 and VA 164 Interchange 4 from I-664 Connector to VA 164 VA from Terminal Avenue Interchange to I-664 Connector Seg. Description 6 Terminal Avenue Interchange 13 VA 164 Connector 7 from I-64 to and including Terminal Avenue Interchange 14 VA 164 I-564/I-664 Connectors (Patriots Crossing) Seg. Description 10 I-564 and I-564 Connector 11 I-664 Connector including I-664 interchange 12 I-564 Connector, I-664 Connector, and VA 164 Connector Interchange Note: The segments included in each of these four project systems are assumed by PFM based on the segments location. Alt. A Alt. C Alt. D Seg. Cost Seg. Cost Seg. Cost 8 $64 7C $511 8 $64 9 $3,200 6C $356 9 $3,200 5C $3,900 7D $433 Alt. B 11C $1,500 6D $285 Seg. Cost 4 $424 5D $2,500 8 $64 3 $123 11D $1,100 9 $3,200 2 $195 4 $424 10B $2,600 1 $54 3 $123 12B $ $408 2 $ $408 12C $577 1 $54 14 $120 10C $4, $120 3 $ $408 12D $514 10D $2,600 Data source: Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement by VDOT, August 2016 Costs are in $2016 dollars (in millions) with 40% contingency; 2.5% inflation rate Assume segment 12C & 13 are not funded by HRTAC in Alt. C; assume segment 12D, 13 & 14 are not funded by HRTAC in Alt. D 4

30 Capital Cost Update All Projects other than Harbor Crossing: Inflated costs same as the February analysis Harbor Crossing Projects Costs in the February analysis - provided by CH2M Hill in October 2015 assuming no direct connectors; these costs are used for HOT scenarios and used as a proxy for General Purpose lanes in No Toll scenarios. Costs in the August Analysis provided by VDOT s Draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement dated July 2016 Appendix A Assume Segments 12C & 13 are not funded by HRTAC in Alt. C; Assume Segments 12D, 13 & 14 are not funded by HRTAC in Alt. D Harbor Crossing Projects All costs in 2016 dollars in millions February Alt. A Alt. B Alt. C Alt. D HRBT $3,832 $3,264 $3,264 $3,264 I-564/I-664 Connectors $4,222 $2,829 $6,000 $3,700 MMBT $2,981 $123 $5,563 $4,013 VA 164 $527 Total $11,035 $3,264 $6,743 $11,563 $10,977 5

31 HRTF Revenue Update HRTF revenue received in FY 2016 is $157,457,280, 4.5% lower than the estimated amount of $164,800,000 (updated in December 2016 by VDOT) $2.4M HRTAC Operating and Admin Expenses approved for FY % annually The 4.5% reduction rate is applied to the HRTF revenue stream assumed in the February analysis. $271M nominal dollar reduction in total from FY 2016 to FY 2040 ($196M PV dollar reduction at a 2.5% discount rate). Without a floor to the tax rate, the fuels tax fluctuates and causes unreliability of the HRTF revenues. 6

32 Traffic and Revenues CDM Smith conducted preliminary T&R studies for VAP3 in 2014 and These studies are used as the Harbor Cross projects toll revenues assumptions in this analysis. However, project scopes and configurations are different in some SEIS Alternatives than what were assumed in the prior work. Also, toll rates were provided by VDOT. CDM Smith did not conduct toll rate sensitivity analyses or recommend the toll rates. CDM Smith recommends T&R estimates be re-assessed prior to any major decisions are made regarding the SEIS Alternatives' financial feasibility and Alternative selection. No revenues are assumed on the VA 164 projects (no T&R study data). High Rise Bridge HOT revenues start after the Phase I project completes, as applicable. 7

33 Financing Assumptions General project development sequence, depending on the SEIS Alternative: Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors MMBT VA 164 High Rise Phase II Rt. 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Debt assumptions are kept the same as in the February analysis. No HRTF bonds issued prior to 2022 HRTF Revenue Bonds have an A credit rating category 40-year term (the average interest cost is approximately 3.60%) 1.35x minimum projected coverage Toll revenue debt BBB rated 35-year term after project construction completion (TIFIA loan) 1.90x minimum projected coverage Same interest rates, based on historical averages 8

34 February Analysis Transmitted to HRTPO for 2040 CLRTP The assumed uninflated costs for HRBT, I-564/I-664 Connectors, and MMBT are $3.8B, $4.2B, and $3.0B, respectively. In addition to the Approved Projects, by 2040, Harbor Crossing Phase I (any one of the three main components), High Rise Bridge Phase II, Ft Eustis Interchange, and the Rt 460/58/13 Connector projects can all be completed. 9

35 Preliminary Result SEIS Alternative A Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors MMBT VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay- Go 2040 CLRP with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $4,031 $1,386 $342 $267 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year CLRP without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $4,131 $1,420 $351 $288 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year $7,602 $4,505 $295 $2,052 $750 $7,766 $4,606 $2,410 $750 Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors MMBT VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay- Go Post 2040 vision plan with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year Post 2040 vision plan without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year HRBT is the only Harbor Crossing component in Alternative A. HRBT, High Rise Phase II, the Rt 460/58/13 and the Ft. Eustis Interchange can all be completed by Results consistent with the February analysis. 10

36 Preliminary Result SEIS Alternative B Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors I-664/VA 164 Interchange** VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay- Go 2040 CLRP with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $4,357 $5,057 $238 $997 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year CLRP without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $4,357 $5,057 $238 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year $12,225 $6,290 $1,470 $3,715 $750 $11,228 $6,189 $1,041 $3,248 $750 Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors I-664/VA 164 Interchange** VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay- Go Post 2040 vision plan with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $2,019 $485 $396 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year Post 2040 vision plan without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,128 $2,328 $548 $449 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year $2,900 $1,187 $629 $1,084 $4,453 $2,798 $1,655 SEIS Alt B can be completed by 2040 in the HOT scenario. In the No-HOT scenario, the VA164 improvements and related interchange are deferred past Two main Harbor Crossing components, HRBT and I-564/I-664 Connectors, are constructed. This causes High Rise Bridge Phase II, Rt 460/58/13 Connector, and the Ft. Eustis Interchange to be deferred past

37 Preliminary Result SEIS Alternative C Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors MMBT VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay-Go 2040 CLRP with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $11,088 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year 2040 CLRP without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $11,088 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year $12,664 $4,673 $1,094 $6,147 $750 $12,664 $4,974 $1,094 $5,846 $750 Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors MMBT VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay-Go Post 2040 vision plan with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $17,542 $3,722 $831 $680 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year Post 2040 vision plan without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $19,363 $4,108 $899 $735 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year $22,094 $12,883 $3,343 $5,868 $24,370 $15,917 $8,453 Only I-564/I-664 Connectors can be completed by MMBT is deferred until after High Rise Bridge Phase II, Rt 460/58/13 Connector and the Ft. Eustis Interchange are deferred past 2040 until after the entire SEIS Alt C is completed. 12

38 Preliminary Result SEIS Alternative D Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors MMBT VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay- Go 2040 CLRP with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $4,449 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year CLRP without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $1,576 $4,449 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year $6,025 $2,439 $186 $2,650 $750 $6,025 $2,873 $2,402 $750 Approved Projects HRBT I-564/I-664 Connectors MMBT VA 164 High Rise Bridge (Phase II) Rt 460/58/13 Connector Ft. Eustis Interchange Total FV Cost HRTF Bonds Toll Bonds HRTF Pay- Go Other Pay- Go Post 2040 vision plan with HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $7,184 $12,654 $3,631 $814 $666 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year Post 2040 vision plan without HOT Inflated Costs (MM) $7,736 $12,971 $3,815 $904 $739 Fiscally Constrained Construction End Year $24,283 $13,776 $4,705 $5,802 $25,426 $18,318 $1,302 $5,805 Only HRBT can be completed by I-564/I-664 Connectors & MMBT are deferred until after High Rise Bridge Phase II, Rt 460/58/13 Connector and the Ft. Eustis Interchange are deferred past 2040 until after the entire SEIS Alt D is completed. However, High Rise Bridge Phase II could be completed by 2040 if the I-564/I-664 Connectors & MMBT components of Alt D were deferred. 13

39 Discussion Additional HRTF Revenues Needed High Rise Bridge Phase II can not be completed before 2040 in Alternative B, C, and D. Additional funds are needed to complete all the Harbor Crossing projects and High Rise Bridge Phase II by The table below shows how much HRTF revenue increase for FY 2018 and thereafter is needed to achieve this goal: HRB Phase II HRTF Revenue HRTF Revenue Completion Year Increase Needed Increase Needed w/ baseline HRTF Revenues % $ in FY 2018 Alt. B HOT % 11,551,708 No-HOT % 27,860,002 Alt. C HOT % 305,780,510 No-HOT % 319,370,755 Alt. D HOT % 224,239,041 No-HOT % 256,515,872 14

40 Discussion Alternate HRTF Bonds Structure The baseline assumption for the HRTF bonds is A-rated with several bond structure flexibilities and less restrictive security terms. If these flexibilities are removed, the HRTF bonds can achieve a higher credit rating possibly AA / AA+. HRTF Capitalized Deferred Debt Debt Bonds ABT Interest Payment Bonds Term Service A 1.35x Allowed Allowed 40 yr Ascending AA/AA+ 1.75x No No 30 yr Level However, the bonding capacity of the HRTF bonds will be reduced with the more restrictive debt terms, therefore the projects will be delayed. Completion Year of All the Harbor Crossing Projects HRTF Bonds A Rated HRTF Bonds AA/AA+ Rated Alt. A HOT No-HOT Alt. B HOT No-HOT Alt. C HOT No-HOT Alt. D HOT No-HOT