Contents: Top 40 Chart ; Currency ; Charts of Interest ; Scatter Graph ; Relative Rotation Graph ; Stats. Top 40 Chart

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Myles Collins
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1 Contents: Top 40 Chart ; Currency ; Charts of Interest ; Scatter Graph ; Relative Rotation Graph ; Stats Top 40 Chart 1

2 Last week we saw the Top 40 approaching some moving average resistances, we have broken above these and have reached a previous high. This may prove to be a resistance point and we could now trade in the sideways channel until be get a breakout. The MACD is gear and showing some strength in the the upward movement. But lets wait for a breakout. CURRENCY The Rand is still trading its its upward channel. Below we have a chart of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies and we can see the strength of the dollar coming through. It has broken a triangle and we need to see if it wil reach its previous resistance reached in March/April of This strength will obviously weigh on the Rand. 2

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4 CHARTS OF INTEREST Steinhoff Steinhoff trading at its resistance level, roughly the 8000c level. A potential ascending triangle could be forming and we could see a breakout in the direction of the trend. 4

5 Reinet We see another ascending triangle forming on Reinet in a strong uptrend. A break above resistance gives a count to the 3200c level. It would be great to see increase of volume on the breakout. 5

6 Gold Price The gold price has come under tremendous pressure, breaking below the $1150 support. The head and shoulder and ascending triangle gives a count to the phycological level of $1000. This movement has filtered through to our gold index seen below. 6

7 With all the ascending triangles mentioned, we see a descending triangle that has broken to the downside on the Gold index. A large head and shoulder formation also stands out showing continued weakness in the gold sector. SCATTER GRAPH Our attention is to create a picture of where the top 40 stocks are trading in the medium term relative to their 50 day moving average (the Y-axis) and 14 day RSI (the X-axis). From this we can see how over bought or oversold our market is and highlighting those extreme stocks. 7

8 We have added a colour bar showing current dividend yield of stocks, red being the highest. 8

9 RELATIVE ROTATION GRAPH Below we have a few sectors relative to the Allshare Index. We will add to this in the weeks to come. Note that each symbol on the chart is plotted as a dot with a tail extending backwards. The tail shows you the history of the symbol's position in the past. Each dot on each symbol's tail represents one period, in this case a week. The large dot at the end of the tail represents the current relative momentum values for that ticker symbol and the colour represents the current quadrant it finds itself in. There are four quadrants on the chart: Leading (Green) - strong relative strength and strong momentum Weakening (Yellow) - strong relative strength but weakening momentum Lagging (Red) - weak relative strength and weak momentum Improving (Blue) - weak relative strength but improving momentum Typically, indices progress through the quadrants in a clockwise manner. Interpretation: The longer the tail, the bigger the move and higher the volatility. The further the index is from the benchmark (the cross hairs) the bigger the move in relative performance (up or down) RS-Ratio (relative strength) is more important than RS-Momentum The rotational patterns are not always perfectly circular and will not always rotate through all four quadrants in a clockwise manner. These are, after all, financial markets driven by fear and greed. 9

10 In general, a cross from the left half to the right half signals a new uptrend in relative performance. This means RS-Ratio has moved above 200. Conversely, a cross from the right half to the left half signals a new downtrend in relative performance. This means RS-Ratio has moved below 200. The underlying trend-following model that powers RRG includes a lag period, as do all trendfollowing models. This means there will already be upward movement in the price relative before the RRG line actually crosses into the leading quadrant. Similarly, the price relative will peak and move lower before the RRG line actually crosses into the lagging quadrant. Symbols in the leading quadrant should be on your buy list because they show relative strength. Symbols in the weakening quadrant should be on your watch-list for deterioration. Symbols in the lagging quadrant should be on your avoid list because they show relative weakness. Symbols in the improving quadrant should be on your shopping list as potential buys. RRGs separate the market leaders from the market laggards and therefore great for channeling your attention to those areas of the market that deserve it. Keep in mind that these are relative performance indicators, and there is still a risk that the rotation turns back or even reverses. STATS Percentage price in relation to various Moving Averages: INDEX 200 SMA 100 SMA 50 SMA 20 SMA CHG_PCT_MOV_A CHG_PCT_MOV_A CHG_PCT_MOV_A CHG_PCT_MOV_A VG_200D VG_100D VG_50D VG_20D Banks Gen Retailers Resource Industria l Financial Property % price above moving average % price below moving average Equity performance: 10

11 Compiled by Kevin Barlow-Jones and Simon Hobday Disclosure This report provides general information only. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments mentioned in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. Past performance and technical patterns and analysis is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report may contain a short-term trading idea or recommendation, which highlights a specific near-term catalyst, pattern or event impacting the company or the market that is anticipated to have a short-term price impact on the equity securities of the company. Shortterm trading ideas and recommendations are different from and may not affect a stock's fundamental equity rating. Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Constant Capital, trading as Sinayo Securities. Neither Constant Capital, trading as Sinayo Securities, nor any officer or employee of Constant Capital, trading as Sinayo Securities, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. 11

Date: 21 September Contents (ctrl+click to follow link): SP 500

Date: 21 September Contents (ctrl+click to follow link): SP 500 Date: 21 September 2015 Contents (ctrl+click to follow link): SP 500 ; Top 40 Chart ; Currency ; Charts of Interest ; Relative Rotation Graph ; Scatter Graph ; Sector Analysis ; Weekly Perfomances SP 500