GROUP. Automobiles & Parts. Analysis and Synthesis - World. February 28, 2017

Transcription

1 GROUP & Parts Analysis and Synthesis - World February 28, 2017

2 & Parts (WO) Comparison [February 26, February 28, 2017] May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 & Parts TSC_World SP % % The group & Parts represents less than 5% of the World total market capitalization,with 178 of its companies followed regularly by thescreener. The group & Parts is currently trading at 2% below its 52 week high and 26% above its 52 week low (bi-weekly closing). ormance since February 26, 2016 : 18.9% vs 20.3% for the index TSC_World and 21.3% for the SP % of stocks are currently in a positive Medium Term Technical Trend (MTT). Value Nb of Stocks 4wk % of Stocks in Uptrend & Parts (WO) % 178 1, % -1.1% 46.1% TSC_World (WO) % 6,343 63, % 2.6% 46. SP500 () 2, % , % 3.7% 58.2% evaluation rating In order to assess whether an industry group is correctly valued, we focus on Peter Lynch's broadly accepted methodology of comparing the projected earnings growth and dividend with the estimated PE ratio. Based on this approach, we feel this industry group is currently strongly undervalued. A "Forecasted + Estimated Dividend Yield/ Estimated Earnings" ratio higher than 0.9 indicates that the industry group's price presents a discount to growth > 4 in this case. Earnings revision trend Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb % 7wk EPS Rev % 15. Compared to seven weeks ago, the analysts have raised (7.2%) their earnings estimates. This positive trend began September 6, 2016 at a price of % 0. " to Estimated Earnings" (PE) - Evolution over five years Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 & Parts TSC_World Median The estimated PE is calculated on the basis of the underlying stocks. While the PE of the group & Parts is 8.5, the PE of the index (TSC_World) is notably higher (15.8); this indicates that the group is trading lower than its market. Historically speaking, this group is currently trading at its median value of 8.4. Technical trend The group is now at a level close to its 40-day moving average (changes between +1.75% and -1.75% are considered neutral). Prior to this (since November 25, 2016), the group was trading above its moving average. The confirmed Technical Reverse point (Tech Reverse %) is currently 2% lower. Close to its average, the group indicates a phase of indecision regarding its trend. On the other hand, with 46.1% of stocks trending positive, it would appear there is a certain weakness in the market that isn't being confirmed by the group Comparison [February 29, February 28, 2017] 38% 2 3 7% 8% 11% 3% 1% -1% -3% 8% 1 2% 4% 6% Aug-12 Mar-13 Oct-13 May-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 Apr-17 Nov-17-2 & Parts TSC_World SP500 ormance over 5 years On a 5 year moving average the performance of the group & Parts is 61.7%, vs 53.2% for the index TSC_World and 73.1% for the SP500. During this period, the high was reached on March 2015 and the low on July /8

3 & Parts (WO) Value Nb of Stocks 4wk % of Stocks in Uptrend & Parts (WO) % 178 1, % -1.1% 46.1% Volatility 5 Allocation by group, of the World market Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Volatility 12M% Volatility 1M% AUT 2.85 % TEC % BAN % D % HEA 8.54 % ENE 7.65 % FSV 7.07 % PHG 5.48 % FOB 4.49 % S 4.48 % TEL 3.99 % RET 3.97 % UTI 3.33 % BAS 3.25 % CHE 2.63 % MED 2.42 % TRL 2.34 % CON 2.03 % Volatility is also used as a risk factor. It measures the magnitude of upward and downward movements of a stock or index. The higher the volatility, the more a stock is considered risky. As of the last update, the monthly volatility of (10.5%) is lower than the last few years' average of (16.1%). The low magnitude of short term price fluctuations indicates a lull in the market. On the other hand, long term volatility 17.5% of the group is clearly higher than that of the index TSC_World (9.6%), reflecting much higher price variations at the group level than at the level of the market to which it belongs. The risk factor in declining markets The "Bear Factor" measures the behavior of a group in declining markets. In this context, the groups & Parts has a tendency to amplify the drops of the index TSC_World. This behavior indicates a true element of risk during market declines. The group & Parts has a tendency to amplify the drops in the index by 0.27%. In terms of market capitalization, the largest group, Technology, represents 13.6% of the market World. In size order these groups then follow: Banks with 11.7% Industrial Goods & Services with 10.1%. Allocation by sector, of the group & Parts B % A % C % The risk factor in rising markets The "Bad News Factor" measures a group's corrections in a rising market phase. In this configuration, the market slightly sanctions the group & Parts when there is specific pressure in this particular economic activity. When the group declines in a rising market its average deviation is -1.16%. Risk analysis summary Generally speaking, an investment in the & Parts group carries a high riskbecause of the Bear factor that strongly amplifies the risk. The largest sector in terms of market capitalization represents 62.5% of the group & Parts.These sectors follow, in size order, with 29.3% with 8.1%. Checklist ( & Parts) Strong interest since January 31, Earnings Rev Trend Valuation Rating MT Tech Trend Analysts positive since September 6, 2016 Strongly undervalued neutral but previously positive (since November 25, 2016) 4wk Rel -1.1% Under pressure (vs. TSC_World) High, no change over 1 year. Bear Mkt Factor Bad News Factor Risky positioning during market declines Slight market sanction in case of specific pressure AUT: & Parts CHE:Chemicals FOB:Food & Beverage D:Industrial Goods & Services PHG:Personal & Household Goods TEL:Telecommunications BAN:Banks CON:Construction & Materials FSV:Financial Services S:Insurance RET:Retail TRL:Travel & Leisure BAS:Basic Resources ENE:Energy HEA:Health Care MED:Media TEC:Technology UTI:Utilities 3/8

4 & Parts (WO) Value Nb of Stocks 4wk % of Stocks in Uptrend & Parts AUT@WO A- WO B- WO C- WO % 178 1, % -1.1% 46.1% % % -0.1% 43.9% % 53 1, % -2.2% 41.5% % % % & Parts AUT@ % % -2.6% 40.7% % % % % -3.1% 20. & Parts AUT@EP EP EP EP % % -2.2% % % -1.1% 45.8% % % -3.6% 45.5% % % 3.1% 80. & Parts AUT@EU EU EU EU % % -23.5% 53.3% % % -0.2% 56.3% % % -3.7% 33.3% % % 3.2% 80. The industry groups are presented in bold characters; followed by the sectors of the same region. The economic regions are separated by a white space sector evolution evolution over the last twelve months 2.1% (AUT) 18.9% (AUT) 4.2% (TSC_World) 20.3% (TSC_World) 3.1% (A) 22.8% (A) 1.2% (B) 17.5% (B) 4.6% (C) 12.8% (C) From the beginning of the year, the group & Parts recorded a variation of 2.1%, while the index TSC_World evolved by 4.2%. This industry group is made up of 3 sectors, in which the extreme variations were from 1.2% to 4.6%. The group & Parts recorded a variation of 18.9% over the last 12 months, while the index TSC_World evolved by 20.3%. This industry group is made up of 3 sectors, in which the extreme variations were from 12.8% to 22.8%. 4/8

5 & Parts (WO) Value Nb of Stocks 4wk % of Stocks in Uptrend & Parts (WO) % 178 1, % -1.1% 46.1% The performance of the 20 largest stocks of the group is presented below. Year to date performance 12 months performance -7.5% (7203@) -3.1% (DAI@) -5.2% (BMW@) -5.9% (7201@) -1.4% (6902@) -11.8% (7270@) -1. (RNO@FR) -0.9% (ASII@ID) -3.4% (A012330@) -3.2% (TTMT@) 2.1% ( & Parts) 5. (VOW3@) 2.2% (7267@) 5.7% (GM@) 3.3% (F@) 9.9% (600104@CN) 4.2% (CON@) 17. (TSLA@) 2.4% (A005380@) 6.3% (5108@) 11.3% (MSIL@) -4.3% (F@) -0.5% (CON@) -2.2% (RNO@FR) 16.5% ( & Parts) 8. (7203@) 5.8% (DAI@) 23.1% (VOW3@) 7.8% (BMW@) 20.2% (7267@) 22.8% (GM@) 9.3% (7201@) 34.2% (TSLA@) 20.5% (6902@) 1.4% (A005380@) 13.1% (5108@) 14.9% (7270@) 17.1% (ASII@ID) 2.4% (A012330@) 44.8% (TTMT@) 69.5% (MSIL@) The analysis and details of the above stock can be found on page 7 The analysis and details of the above stock can be found on page 7 Top Stocks 2017 Top Stocks 12 months % 225% % Jan-17 Feb-17 - May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17-75% & Parts 175 BIL 1114 & Parts From the beginning of the year, the performance of the group was 2.1%; as for the three best stocks, (GEELY AUTMB.HDG.D. (175), GREAT WALL MOTOR CO.D. (2333) and SHAI.BEITE TECH.CTD. (603009)), their performance was 42.5%, 31.8% and 28. respectively. Flop Stocks % Since 12 months ago, the performance of the group has been 18.9%; the three best stocks, (GEELY AUTMB.HDG.D. (175), BALISHNA DS.D. (BIL) and HALX AB (HLDX)) recorded a performances of 260.4%, 130.9% and 98.3% respectively. Flop Stocks 12 months % % -3 Jan-17 Feb May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17-45% 7248 ARB 7261 & Parts A UMWH ZIL2 & Parts CALSONIC KANSEI CORP (7248), ARB CORPORATION D. (ARB) and MAZDA MOTOR CORP. (7261) with -28.2%, -18.2% and -17.6% recorded the three worst performances From the beginning of the year. For the group & Parts, the variation was 2.1%. The three worst performances in 12 months were recorded by HYUNDAI WIA CORP. (A011210), UMW HOLDGS BERHAD (UMWH) and ELRGKLGER AG (ZIL2) with -40.8%, -20.6% and -19.8%. As for the group & Parts, it recorded a variation of 18.9%. Only companies with a market capitalization exceeding $500 million are mentioned. 5/8

6 & Parts (WO) Stocks with the best valuations 7wk EPS Rev Evolution over the last 3 months TOASO TR TOFAS TURK OTOM.FABK.AS TRY % MANDO CORP. 265, W % HK GEELY AUTMB.HDG.D HKD % 1858 CN BAIC MOTOR CORP.D HKD % SUL AU SUPER RETAIL GROUP D AUD % Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 TOASO SUL The global rating ( ) is a multi-criteria approach that identifies the stocks with the best evaluations. This assessment is the compilation of fundamental (PE, growth, earnings revisions, dividend, etc.), technical (moving average, relative performance), and risk (behavior in declining markets and sensitivity to bad news) factors. In order to present the best selection, only companies with a market capitalization greater than $1bn and showing good earnings growth valuations, are listed. Furthermore, the eligible stocks must have a minimum rating of two stars, a neutral to positive valuation, a weak to average risk zone. When the global rankings are identical, the analysts' 7 week earnings per share revision (7 wk EPS rev) acts as the deciding classification element. - The best defensive stocks Evolution over the last 3 months Bear Mkt Factor BIL BALISHNA DS.D. 1, R CN BAIC MOTOR CORP.D HKD TOASO TR TOFAS TURK OTOM.FABK.AS TRY FII FR LISI Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 BIL 1858 TOASO FII HK GEELY AUTMB.HDG.D HKD The risk evaluation is based on essentially two criteria: the stock's "behavior in declining markets" (Bear Factor), and the stock's "sensitivity to bad news" (Bad News Factor). By positioning a stock according to the world averages, three risk levels can be attributed (weak, average, high). Combining these elements makes it possible to create a final ranking of the best defensive stocks in the market. To present the best selection, only companies with a market capitalization greater than $1bn and showing good earnings growth valuations are listed. Furthermore, the eligible stocks must have a minimum rating of two stars, a neutral to positive valuation, a weak to average risk zone. In case of a tie, the stock's "behavior in declining markets" will act as the deciding classification element. The stocks with the lowest correlations Correlation Evolution over the last 3 months BIL BALISHNA DS.D. 1, R A HANON SYSTEMS 9, W WIL WABCO DIA D. 5, R MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORP Y A NEXEN TIRE CORPORATION 14, W Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 BIL A WIL 7211 A The correlation coefficient permits to identify the stocks of which the dependence on the market is the weakest. If this value is very low, less than 0.5, it signifies that less than 5 of the movements of the stock are explained by the movement of the market. On the contrary, a number close to 1 indicates that the value is very close to the evolutions of the market. In order to present the best selection, only the societies with a market capitalization higher than $1bn and showing good earnings growth valuations are listed. Furthermore, the eligible stocks must have a minimum rating of two stars, a neutral to positive valuation, a weak to average risk zone and a minimum correlation of In the case of a tie in the ranking, the stock's "behavior in declining markets" (Bear Factor) acts as the deciding classification element. - 6/8

7 & Parts (WO) Stock with the weakest PE Evolution over the last 3 months 6 45% 3 F IT PAH3 FIAT CHRYSLER AUTOS. PORSCHE AML.HLDG.SE VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG RNO FR RENAU SA Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 F PAH3 VOW3 RNO A A KIA MOTORS CORPORATION 38, W The price to earnings ratio (PE) helps to find undervalued stocks. It is commonly accepted that if the PE of a stock is lower than the PE of its reference market, the stock has upside price potential. In order to present the best selection, only companies with a market capitalization greater than $1bn and showing good earnings growth valuations are listed. Furthermore, the eligible stocks must have: a minimum rating of two stars, a neutral to positive valuation and a risk zone weak to average.when the PE ratios are identical, the analysts' 7 week earnings per share revision (7 wk EPS rev) acts as the deciding classification element. The 20 top stocks classified by market capitalization 4wk Rel Div Volatility 1M 7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP. 6, Y -7.5% % -3.7% 3.6% 13.4% DAI DAIMLER AG % % -4.4% 5.1% 16.3% VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG % -5.5% 2.9% 24.3% BMW BMW AG % % % 20.7% 7267 HONDA MOTOR CO.D. 3, Y 2.2% % 2.6% 3.1% 17.1% GM GENERAL MOTORS CO D 5.7% % 4.5% 28.2% F FORD MOTOR CO D 3.3% % -2.3% 5.5% 13.9% CN SAIC MOTOR CORP.D CNY 9.9% % 14.4% 7201 NISSAN MOTOR CO.D. 1, Y -5.9% % -1.6% 4.9% 4.7% CON CONTENTAL AG % % % 31. TSLA TESLA CO D % -4.5% % 6902 NSO CORP. 4, Y -1.4% % 2.6% 19.9% A HYUNDAI MOTOR CO.D. 149, W 2.4% % 3.2% 29.2% 5108 BRIDGESTONE CORPORATION 4, Y 6.3% % 7.8% 3.5% 25.8% 7270 FUJI HEAVY DS.D. 4, Y -11.8% % -7.7% 4.1% 19.2% MSIL MARUTI SUZUKI DIA D. 5, R 11.3% % -3.5% RNO FR RENAU SA % % -2.4% 4.5% 36.6% ASII ID ASTRA TERNATIONAL TBK. 8, IDR -0.9% % 1.4% % A HYUNDAI MOBIS CTD. 255, W -3.4% % 5.6% 1.7% 21. TTMT TATA MOTORS D R -3.2% % -16.7% 0.4% 29.8% 7/8

8 Glossary - Equities Number of Stocks The number of stocks in the index that can be analyzed. This number represents the Capitalization in D bn. It is calculated by multiplying a firm's share price by the number of outstanding shares. For reasons of comparison, all results are in D. Valuation Rating Our Valuation Rating indicates if a stock is "expensive" or "cheap" relative to its growth potential. This is used to determine whether or not the investor is paying a premium for anticipated growth. To estimate a stock's value relative to its current price, our Valuation Rating combines: stock price projected earnings projected earnings growth dividends We establish our rating by combining these elements. There are five ratings, ranging from strongly undervalued to strongly overvalued. thescreener.com's star rating system is designed to enable you to identify high-quality stocks quickly and easily. In this easy-to-use rating system, stars are earned for each element specified below: Earnings Rev Trend = Valuation Rating,, = MT Tech Trend = 4 week Relative ormance > 1% = Therefore, a stock can earn a maximum of four stars. The lowest rating a stock can have is no stars. Once a stock has earned a star, it will keep it until: Earnings Rev Trend becomes negative Valuation Rating becomes negative, MT Tech Trend becomes negative 4 week Relative ormance drops below -1% (<-1%) Div This is the dividend in % for the next 12 months. Even if the same number is shown, the dividend value can appear in one of four colors, depending on the earnings coverage:, no dividend 4%, the dividends are covered (between and 4 of earnings) 4%, the dividends represent between 4 and 7 of earnings 4%, the dividends are higher than 7 of earnings, which implies that the dividend coverage is not guaranteed. Earnings Rev. Trend The symbol shows that compared with their earnings revisions of seven weeks ago, the analysts have now raised their estimates (7wk EPS Rev; > 1%); the symbol indicates that compared with their earnings revisions of seven weeks ago, the analysts have now lowered their estimates (7wk EPS Rev < -1%). When the earnings revisions (7wk EPS Rev) fall between +1% and -1%, the trend is considered to be neutral. The symbol The symbol indicates that the last significant revisions have been trending positive. indicates that the last significant revisions have been negative. 7wk EPS Rev This is an abbreviation for 7 week Earnings Per Share Revision. This column indicates the value of these revised earnings. A figure of 2.8 signifies that compared with seven weeks ago, the analysts have now revised and raised their estimates by 2.8%. On the contrary, a negative number means that the earnings would have been revised lower. In order to establish our Valuation Rating, we calculate the estimated growth of future earnings ( ) plus dividend in %, divided by the estimated future PE ratio (Long Term ). PE This is the relationship between the price (P) and the estimated long-term future earnings (E ). This is the estimated annual growth rate of future earnings, normally projected over the next two to three years. MT Tech Trend The MT Tech Trend indicates the current trend, positive or negative, and the Tech Reverse indicates up to which price this trend will remain valid. When a price falls to 1.75% above or below the Tech Reverse, the MT Tech Trend is considered neutral. Once the price breaks out of the +1.75% neutral zone, the MT Tech Trend will change to positive. The symbol indicates that the previous MT Tech Trend was positive. The symbol indicates that the previous MT Tech Trend was negative. 4wk (Rel). This figure measures the performance of a stock relative to its national or regional index (compared to four weeks ago). As for an Index, it measures the net performance over 4 weeks. Bad News Factor To determine the "Bad News Factor" we analyze a stock's declines in rising markets. In this purely objective analysis, the actual reasons for a stock's behavior are not important. If a stock price falls while its relative index goes up, it can be assumed that the stock's performance has been affected by bad news - hence the name, "Bad News Factor". Here a stock's movements are measured on a bi-weekly basis, during a sliding 52 week period. Every time a stock drops while its reference index rises, the difference is calculated in %, integrated into a yearly average and expressed in basis points. The higher the "Bad News Factor," the more a stock has proven to be sensitive to bad news. The lower the "Bad News Factor," the less the stock has proven to be sensitive to bad news. Bear Factor To determine the "Bear Factor" we analyze a stock's price movements in declining markets. This is the analysis of the movements, in a bi-weekly intervals, during a sliding 52 week period. The higher the "Bear Factor," the greater the probability a stock would drop when its relative index drops. A "Bear Factor" that is strongly negative means the stock has been more resistant to losses in declining markets. The price developments of stocks are generally volatile and contain high risks that can result in a total loss. Based on a their historical behavior, stocks are classified by risk levels. These risk levels have to be considered solely in relative historic comparison to other stocks. Please note that even Low Risk stocks are equities and therefore high risk investments that can lose up to all of their value, and that based on the past no firm conclusions can be taken into the future. Risk zones are determined by measuring the "Bear Factor" and the "Bad News Factor" against a world reference. There are three types of risk ratings: Low Risk: The risk indicators fall below the world reference average. Medium Risk: The risk indicators are situated higher than the world reference average, but lower than one standard deviation. High Risk: The risk indicators are at levels higher than one standard deviation. Volatility 12 M Volatility is also used as a risk factor. It measures the magnitude of the high and low movements of a stock or index. The higher the volatility, the more risky a stock is considered to be. % of Stocks in Uptrend This is the percentage of stocks in a given list that have a positive Medium Term Technical Trend. If, for example, the aggregate of Technology / World, (which is made up of 458 stocks) has 8% "of stocks in Uptrend," it means that 38 of the stocks within that aggregate have a positive Medium Term Technical Trend. Beta Beta is often used as a measure of risk. Where a Beta is greater than 100, the stock is more volatile than its reference index and therefore more risky. Correlation Correlation is the degree of similarity (in %) in which a stock fluctuates in relation to its reference index. Disclaimer: This report is provided for your personal information only, and does not constitute or contain any solicitation, financial advice, or offer to buy or sell any kind of securities. This report was based on sources that we consider reliable, but we do not warrant the accuracy and exhaustiveness of the information, opinions and quotes provided. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. More information: Earnings forecasts provided by THOMSON REUTERS. 8/8