03/06/2016. Fundamental Analysis

Transcription

1 03/06/2016 Fundental Analysis

2 Major events this week (April 18-22) Major events this week (May 30 June 3) 08:30 GMT Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous MONDAY 12:30 Tentative pm USD EUR FOMC German Member Prelim CPI Dudley Speaks April 0.3% 0.3% -0.4% TUESDAY 12:30 pm 1:30 TUESDAY CAD AUD Current Account (Q1) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Quarter B -17.4B -15.7B 9:00 1:30 EUR AUD German Building Approvals ZEW Economic (MoM) Sentiment April 3.0% % % :30 6:00 pm USD EUR Building Unemployment Permits Rate April 1.09M 10.2% 1.20M 10.2% 1.18M 10.2% 3:00 12:30 pm pm CAD BOC Canadian Gov Poloz GDP (QoQ) Speaks Quarter 1 2.4% 2.9% 0.5% WEDNESDAY 2:00 pm 8:30 WEDNESDAY USD Consumer Confidence Average Earnings Index 3m/y May February % % % 12:30 1:30 pm CAD AUD Wholesale Australian GDP Sales (Q1) MoM February Quarter 1-2.2% 1.1% -0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 2:00 8:30 pm USD Existing UK Manufacturing Home Sales PMI May 5.33M M M 49.2 THURSDAY 2:00 pm 08:30 THURSDAY USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Retail Sales MoM May % % % 11:45 1:30 pm EUR AUD Minimum Retail Sales Bid (MoM) Rate April 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 12:30 1:30 pm USD AUD Unemployment Trade Balance Claims April B 247K -2.11B 265K -2.16B 253K FRIDAY 8:30 pm 8:00 12:30 pm EUR USD Construction PMI Flash Initial Manufacturing Jobless Claims PMI May April May K K K :30 FRIDAY pm CAD Core CPI MoM 0.5% 12:30 8:30 pm CAD Core Services Retail PMI Sales MoM May % :30 pm USD Unemployment Rate May 4.9% 5.0% 12:30 pm USD Nonfarm Payrolls May 170K 160K

3 Key highlights of the week ended May 27 UK Bank of England Governor Mark Carney defended the central bank's decision to highlight the risks of exiting the European Union, coming under renewed accusation from a lawmaker, who has been attacking Carney brutally on his role in the Brexit debate. Carney said the BoE sees Brexit as the biggest domestic risk to financial stability, and agreed that Brexit could cause the Pound to fall, creating an upside shock to inflation that would make it harder to keep interest rates low. The Governor said that if the UK stays in the EU, the next move in interest rates would probably be up. However, if Britons vote to leave the EU, there is a lower chance of a hike. Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent pointed out that the UK economy appears to have slowed quite sharply this year, while it is unclear how much of the slowdown was triggered by the Brexit concerns. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a eurosceptic lawmaker, who has previously bled Carney of venturing into politics with his Brexit warnings and urged him to resign, kept up his criticism. At the se time Andrew Tyrie, chairman of the committee quizzing Carney and other BoE officials, said lawmakers would have criticized the Governor if he had stayed silent on Brexit. Europe An important economic indicator of the Euro zone's economic health dropped in May to its lowest level in 16 months despite the efforts of the ECB to boost growth and business activity in the region. The flash Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index indicated that business activity in the 19-country region slid to 52.9 in May from 53.0 in April, failing to meet analysts' expectations for an estimated Moreover, a separate research of the bloc's factory arena showed the flash Manufacturing PMI was at 51.5 in May, compared to 51.7 seen in the previous month, while economic forecast was on Meanwhile, conditions in the Euro zone services sector remained unchanged as the gauge ce in at 53.1, the se as in April, while analysts expected a slight improvement to 53.3 in May. A level below 50.0 signals a drop from the previous month, while a level above signals an increase. Thus, the latest PMIs suggest that economic growth has slowed in the Euro area in the second quarter and that business activity remained subdued. Japan Japan's exports dropped in April at the quickest pace in three months as a stronger Yen and weakness in China and other emerging markets take their toll on the country's shipments, denting growth prospects for the current quarter. Overseas shipments plunged 10.1% in April from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said, while economists had predicted a 10.0% annual decline and following a 6.8% decrease in. It was the seventh straight month of declines and the biggest since 12.9% in January, when Japanese shipments to Asia slowed sharply ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. The drop was likely exaggerated by a fall in US-bound car exports due to supply-chain disruptions caused by last month's earthquakes in southern Japan, but a surging Yen and tepid global demand are clouding the outlook for the year. 07:30 GMT

4 07:30 GMT EUR Economic recovery in the euro area continues to be dpened by subdued growth prospects and a sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms Additional stimulus is expected from the monetary policy measures still to be implemented and will contribute to further rebalancing the risk to the outlook for growth. - Mario Draghi, ECB President Impact ECB Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged High The European Central Bank revealed no surprises regarding interest rate decision as all three main interest rates left on hold, in line with majority of economists expectations. The central bank s main interest rate, remains at a record low of 0%, while the deposit rate, in turn, will stay at minus 0.4%, indicating that commercial banks continue to pay to park funds with the central bank overnight. The market posted minimal reaction to the following news and was mostly concentrated on President Draghi s press conference. During the ECB President press conference it was revealed that there is willingness to take further action if inflation doesn t pick up decisively, however the need for patience is necessary as previously announced stimulus measures take effect. Also, it was stressed out that Central bank would start its corporate bond purchase progrme on June 8 and would conduct its first operation in its new series of targeted loans on June 22. Meanwhile, despite a recent increase in oil prices, the ECB s economists revealed positive inflation forecast for this year, as well as left their projections for next year and 2018 unchanged, an indication that further stimulus measures may be needed if policy makers are to meet their inflation target of just under 2%. Trends* Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 MAX % percentile Median % percentile MIN * the data is based on international banks forecasts S&P/ASX 200 Index % open price , close price % change S&P/ASX AUD/USD 300 Index % 5, % USD/CHF % USD/JPY % NZD/USD %

5 USD Major events this week (April (May 16-20) 18-22) Job growth continues to be substantially faster than the underlying Day/Time (GMT) growth of Flag the labor Currency force, Event so the labor market continues to tighten. Period Actual Forecast Previous - MONDAY Jerome Powell, Fed governor 12:30 pm USD FOMC Empire Member State Manufacturing Dudley Speaks Index May TUESDAY 08:30 07:30 GMT 08:30 GMT 1:30 AUD Monetary Policy Impact Meeting Minutes 9:00 3:00 EUR NZD German Inflation ZEW Expectations Economic QoQ Sentiment April Quarter 1 1.6% % 4.3 US unemployment claims unexpectedly fall to five-week High low 12:30 8:30 pm USD Building CPI YoY Permits April 1.09M 0.3% 1.20M 0.5% 1.18M 0.5% According 3:00 12:30 to pm the pm latest Labour Department CAD release, BOC Manufacturing Gov the Poloz number Speaks Sales of MoM -0.9% -0.7% -3.3% Americans WEDNESDAY 12:30 applying pm for unemployment USD benefits Building unexpectedly Permits April 1.12M 1.13M 1.09M dropped last week to a five week low, pointing to a tightening jobs market. 8:30 12:30 The data pm for the previous USD week showed Average CPI MoM that Earnings 267,000 Index 3m/y February April 1.8% 0.4% 2.1% 0.4% 2.1% 0.1% individuals 12:30 10:45 filed pm new jobless claims. CAD NZD The following Wholesale PPI Input data QoQ revealed Sales MoM a February Quarter 1-2.2% -1.0% -0.4% 0.3% -1.2% 0.2% decline of 1,000 claims from the prior week s level of 268,000. 2:00 11:50 pm pm USD JPY Existing Prelim GDP Home QoQ Moreover, the streak of initial jobless claims below 300k resumes Sales a Quarter M 0.4% 5.29M 0.1% 5.07M -0.3% 64 consecutive WEDNESDAY weeks period, thus showing the longest since THURSDAY Moreover, 8:30 the data was better than the consensus Average estimate Earnings of 270k Index 3M/Y 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% new claims. 08:30 Continuing jobless claims, in turn, Retail for the Sales week MoM ended -1.3% -0.1% -0.5% May 21 went 8:30 up to million from million Claimant in the Count preceding Change Trends* April Q K Q K 6.7K Q :45 pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate MAX % week. Moreover, the previous week s figure was revised down from 151 6:00 pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes million. 12:30 Economists pm had expected USD continuing Unemployment claims to decline Claims 75% percentile April K K 253K 133 Median further FRIDAY THURSDAY reaching the million mark. 25% percentile Overall, a Labour Department analyst revealed that there were no MIN special factors 8:00 1:30 which have led to the EUR AUD following Flash Unemployment last Manufacturing week's claims Rate PMI April April 5.7% 5.8% 5.7% * the data is based on international banks forecasts 51.6 data. However, 12:30 11:00 pm claims for Tennessee, CAD Virginia, Core Retail Wyoming, CPI Sales MoM MoM Puerto S&P/ASX 200 Index April 0.29% 1.3% 5, % -1.3% 0.5% Rico and Hawaii were estimated because of the Memorial Day S&P/ASX AUD/JPY 300 Index % 5, % 12:30 FRIDAY holiday. Also it pm could be added, that CAD last week's Core claims Retail report Sales has MoM no AUD/USD % +0.23% EUR/AUD % impact on 12:30 the employment pm report for CAD May, which Core is scheduled CPI MoM to be /AUD April % % 0.7% -0.10% published today. 12:30 pm CAD Core Retail Sales MoM April -0.3% -0.4% 0.2% open price close price % change

6 Major events this week (April (May 16-20) 18-22) Heightened uncertainty and subdued general economic conditions Day/Time in (GMT) turn contributed Flag Currency to the first Event outright fall in new work received by construction firms for just over Period Actual Forecast Previous three MONDAY years. - David Morrison, SpreadCo 12:30 pm USD FOMC Empire Member State Manufacturing Dudley Speaks Index May TUESDAY 08:30 07:30 GMT 08:30 GMT 1:30 AUD Monetary Policy Impact Meeting Minutes 9:00 3:00 EUR NZD U.K. construction PMI unexpectedly falls German Inflation ZEW Expectations Economic QoQ Sentiment High April Quarter 1 1.6% % 4.3 UK construction 12:30 8:30 pm sector activity in May USD unexpectedly Building CPI YoY fell Permits with output April 1.09M 0.3% 1.20M 0.5% 1.18M 0.5% growth easing 3:00 12:30 pm pm to its weakest for almost CAD three years BOC Manufacturing with Gov Poloz new orders Speaks Sales MoM contracting for the first time in three years. In a report, market WEDNESDAY 12:30 pm USD Building Permits research firm Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply stated 8:30 12:30 pm that UK construction USD PMI index Average CPI was MoM weaker Earnings than Index 3m/y April February April -0.9% 1.12M 1.8% 0.4% -0.7% 1.13M 2.1% 0.4% -3.3% 1.09M 2.1% 0.1% expected 12:30 10:45 at 51.2 pm from 52.0 the previous CAD NZD month Wholesale PPI and Input compared QoQ with Sales MoM February Quarter 1-2.2% -1.0% -0.4% 0.3% -1.2% 0.2% expectations of 51.9 for the month. Construction makes up 6% of Britain's 2:00 11:50 economy, pm pm though it accounts USD JPY for a disproportionate Existing Prelim GDP Home QoQ ount Sales Quarter M 0.4% 5.29M 0.1% 5.07M -0.3% of volatility WEDNESDAY in official gross domestic product data. In addition, the new orders THURSDAY component fell especially sharply, dropping to 48.1 from 50.1, its 8:30 Average Earnings Index 3M/Y 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 08:30 first time since April 2013 below the 50-mark Retail Sales that separates MoM -1.3% -0.1% -0.5% growth from 8:30 contraction and the lowest index Claimant reading since Count Change Trends* April Q K Q K 6.7K Q :45 pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate MAX % 151 6:00 pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims 75% percentile April K K 253K 133 Uncertainty Median FRIDAY THURSDAY surrounding the June referendum was again cited as a key factor in restraining activity with over 30% of companies stating 25% percentile MIN that there 8:00 1:30 was a significant negative EUR AUD impact. Flash Unemployment Civil engineering Manufacturing Rate the PMI April April 5.7% 5.8% 5.7% * the data is based on international banks forecasts 51.6 worst performing category for the second month running with the 12:30 11:00 pm CAD Core Retail CPI Sales MoM MoM S&P/ASX 200 Index April 0.29% 1.3% 5, % -1.3% residential and commercial sectors also recording activity close to 0.5% S&P/ASX AUD/JPY 300 Index % 5, % three-year 12:30 FRIDAY lows. pm More positively, the CAD employment Core Retail index Sales remained MoM CAD/JPY % -0.39% in positive territory and jobs increased at the fastest pace since EUR/JPY % 12:30 pm CAD Core CPI MoM April 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% January. There was a further deterioration in supplier performance, USD/JPY % which continues 12:30 pm to suggest capacity CAD constraints, Core while Retail input Sales prices MoM April -0.3% -0.4% 0.2% continued to increase open price close price % change

7 AUD Major events this week (April (May 16-20) 18-22) Overall, these data provide some tentative reasons to believe Day/Time that (GMT) GDP growth Flag in the Currency second quarter Event is unlikely to be anywhere near as good as the 1.1 per cent Period Actual Forecast Previous quarterly MONDAY rise in the first. -Paul Dales, Capital Economics 12:30 pm USD FOMC Empire Member State Manufacturing Dudley Speaks Index May TUESDAY 08:30 07:30 GMT 08:30 GMT 1:30 AUD Monetary Policy Impact Meeting Minutes 9:00 3:00 EUR NZD German Inflation ZEW Expectations Economic QoQ Sentiment April Quarter 1 1.6% % 4.3 Australian retail sales rise 0.2% in April, less-thanexpected 12:30 8:30 pm USD Building CPI YoY Permits April 1.09M 0.3% 1.20M 0.5% 1.18M High 0.5% Australian 3:00 12:30 retail pm pm sales rose modestly CAD in April, led BOC Manufacturing by strength Gov Poloz Speaks Sales cafes, MoM department stores and clothing. In a report, Australian Bureau of WEDNESDAY 12:30 pm USD Building Permits Statistics stated that Australian retail sales rose to a seasonally adjusted 8:30 12:30 0.2%, pm as soft consumer USD demand, a Average CPI warm MoM autumn Earnings and Index 3m/y April February April -0.9% 1.12M 1.8% 0.4% -0.7% 1.13M 2.1% 0.4% -3.3% 1.09M 2.1% 0.1% aggressive 12:30 10:45 discounting pm took their toll CAD NZD after a relatively Wholesale PPI Input strong QoQ Sales. MoM February Quarter 1-2.2% -1.0% -0.4% 0.3% -1.2% 0.2% The growth rate compares with a 0.4% increase for, and fell short of 2:00 11:50 economists' pm pm forecasts of USD JPY 0.3% this time. Existing Prelim The GDP Home Australian QoQ Sales Quarter M 0.4% 5.29M 0.1% 5.07M -0.3% Bureau of WEDNESDAY Statistics reported that turnover at cafes, restaurants and takeaway THURSDAY stores led the way with a 1% increase, followed by clothing, 8:30 Average Earnings Index 3M/Y 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 08:30 footwear and accessories, with 0.5% growth. Retail Sales However MoM the -1.3% -0.1% -0.5% situation 8:30 with food retailers, such as supermarkets, Claimant appeared Count to Change be Trends* April Q K Q K 6.7K Q4 16 bad, as sales 11:45 in pm this segment were down EUR 0.3% for Minimum the month. Bid Rate MAX % 151 6:00 pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims 75% percentile April K K 253K 133 Meanwhile, Median FRIDAY THURSDAY a separate research showed that Australia s trade balance rose more-than-expected last month. Australia s trade 25% percentile MIN balance 8:00 1:30 increased to a seasonally adjusted EUR AUD -$1.579 Flash Unemployment Manufacturing billion, against Rate PMI April April 5.7% 5.8% 5.7% * the data is based on international banks forecasts 51.6 market expectations 12:30 11:00 pm of a -$2.11 billion CAD print. That Core Retail is CPI Sales a fall MoM MoM of $392 S&P/ASX 200 Index April 0.29% 1.3% 5, % -1.3% million, 20%, from the deficit of -$1.971 billion whose figure 0.5% S&P/ASX AUD/JPY 300 Index % 5, % was revised 12:30 FRIDAY up pm from -$2.163 billion. CAD Moreover, Core data Retail showed Sales MoM that AUD/USD % -0.39% exports have risen by 1% and imports have declined by 1%. This is EUR/AUD % 12:30 pm CAD Core CPI MoM April 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% good news that backs up the strong GDP data released yesterday, /AUD % but yet is 12:30 a trend pm that needs to pick CAD up pace if it Core is to Retail counteract Sales MoM the April -0.3% -0.4% 0.2% loss of the mining industry all together open price close price % change

8 Major events this week (April 18-22) Major events of the previous week (May 23-27) 08:30 GMT Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous MONDAY 12:30 7:30 pm USD EUR FOMC German Member Flash Manufacturing Dudley Speaks PMI May TUESDAY 8:00 1:30 TUESDAY EUR AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes May :00 3:05 EUR AUD German RBA Gov ZEW Stevens Economic Speaks Sentiment April :30 9:00 pm USD EUR Building German Permits ZEW Economic Sentiment May 1.09M M M :00 2:00 pm CAD USD BOC New Gov Home Poloz Sales Speaks April 619K 521K 531K WEDNESDAY 10:45 pm 8:30 WEDNESDAY NZD Trade Balance Average Earnings Index 3m/y April February 292M 1.8% 40M 2.1% 189M 2.1% 12:30 8:00 pm CAD EUR Wholesale German Ifo Sales Business MoM Climate February May -2.2% % % 2:00 pm USD CAD Existing BOC Rate Home Statement Sales 5.33M 5.29M 5.07M THURSDAY 08:30 1:30 AUD Retail Private Sales Capital MoM Expenditure QoQ Quarter 1-1.3% -5.2% -0.1% -3.2% -0.5% 1.8% 11:45 8:30 pm EUR Minimum Second Estimate Bid Rate GDP QoQ Quarter 1 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 12:30 pm USD Unemployment Core Durable Goods Claims Orders MoM April K 0.4% 265K 0.3% -0.1% 253K FRIDAY 8:00 12:30 pm EUR USD Flash Prelim Manufacturing GDP QoQ PMI April 0.5% :30 pm CAD Core CPI MoM 0.5% 12:30 pm CAD Core Retail Sales MoM 1.2%

9 EXPLANATIONS Chart SMA (55) Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts Third Quartile separates 25% of the highest forecasts Second Quartile the median price based on the projections of the industry First Quartile separates 25% of the lowest forecasts

10 Fundental Analysis Technical Analysis Press Review Market Research Newest releases and archive: Fundental Analysis Technical Analysis Press Review Market Research Expert Commentary Dukascopy Sentiment Index Trade Pattern Ideas Global Stock Market Review Commodity Overview Economic Research Quarterly Report Aggregate Technical Indicator Expert Commentary Dukascopy Bank Sentiment Index Trade Pattern Ideas Global Stock Market Review Additional information: Dukascopy Group Home Page Market News & Research FXSpider Live Webinars Dukascopy TV Daily Pivot Point Levels Economic Calendar Daily Highs/Lows SWFX Sentiment Index Movers & Shakers FX Forex Calculators Currency Converter Currency Index CoT Charts Social networks: Commodity Overview Economic Research Dukascopy Aggregate Technical Indicator Disclaimer Everything in this article, including opinions and figures, is provided for informational purposes only and may not be interpreted as financial advice or solicitation of products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this article. Financial figures indicated in this article have not been verified by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the article, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy group. Dukascopy group waive any and all warranties, express or implied, regarding, but without limitation to, warranties of the merchantability or the fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to all information in this article. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequential, contingent or any other dages sustained in connection with the use of this article.