HOT OR NOT. Adrian Economakis - COO.

Transcription

1 HOT? OR NOT Adrian Economakis - COO adrianeconomakis@vesselsvalue.com

2 15 MINUTE MARKET RECAP: All the major markets, all the key data, what s hot and what s not a view on the next few years.

3 WHO WE ARE

4 WHAT WE DO OUR SERVICES Value Search Map Trade

5 WHERE WE ARE ESTABLISHED OFFICES Worldwide PEOPLE 150+

6 WHO WE WORK WITH SUBSCRIBERS 400+ companies USERS 2, % 37% 21% Banks & Funds Shipowners, Operators & Traders Professional Services

7 BULKERS HOT.

8 PAST Five Year Old Fixed Age Values $45 $40 $35 $34.97 $39.60 Value M USD $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy $20.76 $19.23 $12.03 $23.81 $21.25 $14.59 $0 12 Month Change #1 #2 #3 #4 Handy Panamax Capesize Supramax +21% +15% +13% +11%

9 CAPESIZE VALUES

10 CAPESIZE VALUES SOLD AT $20.5M IN 2016 TO CAPITAL MARITIME & TRADING

11 CAPESIZE VALUES SOLD AT $29.5M IN 2017 TO NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS

12 CAPESIZE ASSET VALUE CYCLE Current Value $39.83 Median Value $27.12

13 BULKER CYCLE % Change 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Capesize 12.6% Current Market Value vs Historical Mean Panamax 5.7% Supramax 4.0% -5% -10% -15% Handy -11%

14 BULKER POSSIBLE FUTURE 5 Year Old Bulker Asset Value 60% 50% Capesize Panamax 47.1% % Change 40% 30% 20% Supramax Handy 32.4% 30.0% 32.2% 10% 0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

15 CONTAINERS HOT.

16 PAST Five Year Old Fixed Age Values $120 $100 $85.44 $87.97 Value M USD $80 $60 $40 ULCV Post Panamax Handy $32.94 $38.37 $20 $0 Feedermax $15.74 $12.89 $18.82 $ Month Change #1 #2 #3 #4 Handy Post Panamax Feedermax ULCV +20% +16% +8% +3%

17 HANDY CONTAINER VALUES

18 HANDY CONTAINER VALUES SOLD AT $10.25M IN 2018 TO TUFTON OCEANIC

19 HANDY CONTAINER ASSET VALUE CYCLE Current Value $11.66 Median Value $16.33

20 CONTAINER CYCLE 0% Current Market Value vs Historical Mean -5% % Change -10% -15% -20% -25% ULCV -11.8% Handy -9.9% Feedermax -21.3% -30% -35% -40% -45% Post Panamax -37.4%

21 CONTAINER POSSIBLE FUTURE 5 Year Old Container Asset Values 140% 120% Post Panamax Panamax 122.8% 100% Handy % Change 80% 60% Feedermax 51.1% 48.2% 40% 20% 45.9% 0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

22 TANKERS NOT HOT BUT WARMING UP..

23 PAST $90 Five Year Old Fixed Age Values Value M USD $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR2 $60.49 $66.47 $42.99 $45.81 $32.17 $32.38 $29.98 $27.88 $24.94 $ Month Change #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 VLCC Suezmax MR2 Aframax LR1 +10% +7% +5% +1% -7%

24 VLCC VALUES

25 VLCC ASSET VALUE CYCLE Current Value $48.79 Median Value $56.90

26 TANKER CYCLE 15% Current Market Value vs Historical Mean 10% 5% Suezmax 5.5% % Change 0% -5% -10% VLCC -3.1% MR2-5.0% -15% -20% -25% Aframax -18.4% LR1-16.0%

27 POSSIBLE FUTURE 5 Year Old Tanker Asset Value 70% 60% 50% VLCC Suezmax Aframax 60.8% 46.3% % Change 40% 30% LR1 MR 42.5% 42.3% 20% 22.3% 10% 0% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

28 LNG AND LPG SHOULD BE HOTTER?

29 PAST Value M USD $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Large LNG Midsize LNG VLGC LPG Small Scale LNG MGC LPG Fully Press LPG Five Year Old Fixed Age Values $146.1 $152.3 $83.79 $87.51 $54.93 $60.49 $40.68 $42.65 $29.17 $31.10 $7.80 $ Month Change #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Fully Press VLGC LPG MGC LPG Small LPG Midsize LNG Large LNG +22% +10% +7% +5% +4% +4%

30 GAS CYCLE 25% Current Market Value vs Historical Mean % Change 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Large LNG 1.1% VLGC LPG 6.6% Small Scale LNG 11% Fully Press LPG 1.2% -5% -10% Midsize LNG 1.4% -15% -20% MGC LPG -13.6%

31 GAS POSSIBLE FUTURE % Change 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% VLGC MGC Fully Pressurised SP FR LPG (Small) 5 Year Old LPG Asset Values 52.3% 26.4% 14.5% 8.3% Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q

32 OFFSHORE SOME SECTORS LOOKING BETTER?

33 PAST Five Year Old Fixed Age Values $250 $200 Value M USD $150 $100 $50 $0 Drillship Semi-Sub Rig Jack Up Rig PSV (Large) AHTS (Large) $100.3 $85.23 $84.59 $16.28 $5.86 $107.3 $108.2 $91.23 $15.09 $ Month Change #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 Jack Up Drillship Semi-Sub AHTS PSV +28% +7% +% +3% -7%

34 AHTS VALUES

35 AHTS VALUES SOLD AT $5.8M IN 2017 TO EASTERN NAVIGATION

36 AHTS ASSET VALUE CYCLE Current Value $7.11 Median Value $28.33

37 OFFSHORE CYCLE Current Market Value vs Historical Mean 5% -5% % Change -15% -25% -35% -45% Jack Up Rig -15.5% -55% -65% PSV (Large) -56.8% -75% -85% Drillship -72.5% Semi-Sub Rig -70.7% AHTS (Large) -73.7%

38 SUMMARY

39 GOING UP Bulkers China Demand (One Belt One Road?) Small orderbook Containers China Trade The cycle

40 GOING SLOW Tankers Crude demand issues? Can t stop ordering But what goes down Gas Too many ships But good demand story

41 HUNGOVER HUNGOVER - OFFSHORE

42 BETTER INFORMATION BETTER DECISIONS HELPS YOU MAKE

43 +44 (0) vesselsvalue.com