GREATER BAY AREA PLATINUM THINKING 26 OCTOBER, Source: Platinum, MGM China

Transcription

1 GREATER BAY AREA PLATINUM THINKING 26 OCTOBER, 2018 Source: Platinum, MGM China

2 Macro View Of The 9+2 Cities In Greater Bay Area Zhaoqing Area: 14,891 SQ. KM GDP: RMB220.1b Per capita: RMB53,674 Population: 4.1m Foshan Area: 3,798 SQ. KM GDP: RMB955.0b Per capita: RMB124,722 Population: 7.7m Zhongshan Area: 1,748 SQ. KM GDP: RMB345.0b Per capita: RMB106,327 Population: 3.3m Jiangmen Area: 9,509 SQ. KM GDP: RMB269.0b Per capita: RMB59,089 Population: 4.6m Zhuhai Area: 1,732 SQ. KM GDP: RMB256.5b Per capita: RMB149,100 Population: 1.8m Guangzhou Area: 7,434 SQ. KM GDP: RMB2.2t Per capita: RMB150,678 Population: 14.5m Huizhou Area: 11,346 SQ. KM GDP: RMB383.1b Per capita: RMB80,205 Population: 4.8m Dongguan Area: 2,460 SQ. KM GDP: RMB758.2b Per capita: RMB90,885 Population: 8.3m Shenzhen Area: 1,997 SQ. KM GDP: RMB2.2t Per capita: RMB183,127 Population: 12.5m Hong Kong Area: SQ. KM GDP: HK$2.6t Per capita: HK$349,745 Population: 7.5m Macau Area: 30.3 SQ. KM GDP: MOP391.8b Per capita: MOP622,803 Population: 0.6m Source: NBS, Wind, Platinum Research Note: 2017 macro data 1

3 China s Cities By Tier (GDP & Population) % of Total % of Total Total Population (mil) 7-yr CAGR GDP (RMB bil) 2-yr CAGR Pop. (2017) GDP (2017) % % % % Tier 1 1 Shanghai % 3,013 2, % 1.7% 3.6% 2 Beijing % 2,800 2, % 1.6% 3.4% 3 Guangzhou % 2,150 1, % 1.0% 2.6% 4 Shenzhen % 2,244 1, % 0.9% 2.7% Sub-total % 10,208 8, % 5.2% 12.3% Tier 2 5 Tianjin % 1,860 1, % 1.1% 2.2% 6 Chongqing % 1,950 1, % 2.2% 2.4% 7 Chengdu % 1,389 1, % 1.2% 1.7% 8 Wuhan % 1,341 1, % 0.8% 1.6% 9 Hangzhou % 1,256 1, % 0.7% 1.5% 10 Nanjing % 1, % 0.6% 1.4% 11 Qingdao % 1, % 0.7% 1.3% Sub-total % 10,070 8, % 7.2% 12.2% Tier 3 12 Changsha % 1, % 0.6% 1.3% 13 Ningbo % % 0.6% 1.2% 14 Dalian % % 0.5% 0.9% 15 Zhengzhou % % 0.7% 1.1% 16 Shenyang % % 0.6% 0.7% 17 Jinan % % 0.5% 0.9% 18 Xi'an % % 0.6% 0.9% 19 Harbin % % 0.8% 0.8% 20 Hefei % % 0.6% 0.9% 21 Fuzhou % % 0.6% 0.9% 22 Shijiazhuang % % 0.8% 0.8% 23 Changchun % % 0.5% 0.8% 24 Nanchang % % 0.4% 0.6% 25 Kunming % % 0.5% 0.6% 26 Xiamen % % 0.3% 0.5% Sub-total % 10,529 9, % 8.5% 12.7% Source: Wind, NBS, Platinum Research National GDP totalled 82.7 trillion Yuan in 2017 National population totalled 1.39 billion in

4 GBA Residential Property Highlights = RMB Zhaoqing Price per sqm: RMB7,450 2-yr CAGR: 12.0% Guangzhou Price per sqm: RMB21,659 2-yr CAGR: 11.8% Foshan Price per sqm: RMB12,003 2-yr CAGR: 9.5% Huizhou Price per sqm: RMB11,118 2-yr CAGR: 22.2% Zhongshan Price per sqm: RMB10,670 2-yr CAGR: 18.4% Dongguan Price per sqm: RMB17,719 2-yr CAGR: 7.4% Shenzhen Price per sqm: RMB54,704 2-yr CAGR: -1.4% Jiangmen Price per sqm: RMB8,467 2-yr CAGR: 18.2% Hong Kong Price per sqm: HK$163,689 2-yr CAGR: 16.1% Zhuhai Price per sqm: RMB20,943 2-yr CAGR: 10.1% Macau Price per sqm: MOP$107,571 2-yr CAGR: 17.0% Source: CRIC E-house (China), RVD (HK), DSEC (Macau), Platinum Research Note: China: data as of Sept 2018 Macau: data as of 2Q18 HK: data as of Aug 2018 Price per square metre is 3Q18 simple avg. price per sqm HK property prices class A,B,C simple avg. price per sqm 3

5 Government Policy: Highlights Residence Permit For Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan residents Employment, social security and access to housing funds. Public services: education, public employment, legal services, welfare. Other: vehicle permits, financial services, medical services. Innovation and Technology (I&T) Eight areas of I&T development: increase R&D, talent development, R&D infrastructure, legal framework, education and government procurement policy. Establish research clusters and higher education establishments. Enhanced tax reductions for R&D investment Hong Kong government budget includes HK$50b for overseas research institutions to establish branches in GBA. Inject HK$10b into I&T Fund Source: Platinum Research, Hong Kong Government 4

6 Infrastructure Of The Greater Bay Area Foshan 5 Dongguan Huizhou Zhongshan Shenzhen Jiangmen 4 Key 1. Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge 2. Tuen Mun Western Bypass 3. Shenzhen-Zhuhai Intercity Rail 4. Shenzhen-Zhongshan Expressway 5. Hunan Second Bridge Zhuhai Hong Kong Macau Source: Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau, Platinum Research 5

7 Key Infrastructure Highlights 1 Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge 1. Establishes the commute radius of the Greater Bay Area km length longest bridge-tunnel sea crossing in the world. 3. Zhuhai to Kwai Tsing Container Terminal travel time to 75 minutes. 4. HK Airport to Zhuhai travel time to 45 minutes 2 Tuen Mun Western Bypass 1. Aims to link Hung Shui Kiu New Development and Shenzhen Bay Bridge to North Lantau via Tuen Mun 2. Approx. 9km length (tunnel) 3. Currently under detailed planning study 3 Shenzhen-Zhuhai Intercity Rail 1. Aims to directly link Shenzhen Qianhai with Zhuhai 2. Approx. 29km length (tunnel) 3. Long-term project 4 Shenzhen-Zhongshan Expressway 1. Commences service in km length 3. Connects Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Nansha (Guangzhou) 4. 8 lanes 100 kph 5. Travel time between Shenzhen to Zhongshan reduced to 20 minutes. 5 Humen Pearl River Bridge 1. Commences service in 1H km length Source: Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau, Hong Kong Highways Department, Platinum Research 6

8 The Airports Located In The Greater Bay Area Source: Annual reports, respective official airport websites, BCIA, Platinum Research Note: capacity/utilisation on a per annum basis 7

9 Other Macro Data In Greater Bay Area Zhaoqing Visitors : 13.3m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: -0.9% Exports: RMB22.8b Imports: RMB13.9b Foshan Visitors : 15.0m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 7.5% Exports: RMB323.1b Imports: RMB123.5b Zhongshan Visitors : 13.3m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 10.8% Exports: RMB210.4b Imports: RMB54.0b Jiangmen Visitors : 22.6m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 12.0% Exports: RMB110.3b Imports: RMB31.8b Zhuhai Visitors : 22.9m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 7.5% Exports: RMB193.8b Imports: RMB113.7b Guangzhou Visitors : 62.8m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 7.7% Exports: RMB592.9b Imports: RMB402.5b Huizhou Visitors : 22.4m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 13.5% Exports: RMB229.1b Imports: RMB17.5b Dongguan Visitors : 20.1m (2016) Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 3.6% Exports: RMB721.8b Imports: RMB537.3b Shenzhen Visitors : 60.2m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 7.7% Exports: RMB1,697.3b Imports: RMB1,179.6b Hong Kong Visitors : 27.9m Visitor 4-yr CAGR: 2.1% Exports: RMB3,456.2b Imports: RMB3,885.2b Macau Visitors : 17.3m Visitor 5-yr CAGR: 4.9% Exports: RMB9.77b Imports: RMB65.7b Sources of data: Statistics Bureau of Guangdong Province, Census and Statistics Department of Hong Kong SAR, and Statistics and Census Service of Macao SAR Note: 2017 data unless specified otherwise overnight visitors per annum FX USD:RMB=6.95 8

10 Hang Seng Stock Connect Big Bay Area Composite Index (HSBBAC) HSBBAC Index Eligibility Requirements 1. Northbound or southbound connect eligible 2. Headquartered or core area of operations in the 9+2 GBA cities 3. At least 50% of revenue derived from mainland China or HK/Macau in latest financial year Index Characteristics 1. May 2018 market cap of 250 constituents was RMB16 trillion. 2. Outperformed flagship indices such as HSI, Hang Seng China 50, Hang Seng China A 100 from Dec 2014 to May CN HK Company Wgt (%) CN HK Company Wgt (%) CN HK Company Wgt (%) Shenzhen (99) 47.4% Foshan (11) 7.4% Dongguan (8) 1.2% Ping An Insurance Midea Group Luxshare Precision Tencent Hai Tian Guangdong HEC Tech China Merchants Bank Country Garden Shenyi Technology China Vanke Keda Zhongsheng yaoye CITIC Securities Hisense Kelon JANUS 0.1 Others (94) 17.1 Others (6) 0.4 Others (3) 0.1 Hong Kong (64) 26.7% Macau (6) 4.4% Zhongshan (9) 0.8% HKEx Galaxy Entertainment Jonjee Hi-Tech CK Asset Sands China Vatti Corp Sun Hung Kai Properties Wynn Macau Zhongshan Broad Ocean Hang Seng Bank SJM Holdings Zhongshan Public Utilities BOCHK Melco Int'l Dev Tatwah Smarttech 0.1 Others (59) 16.4 Others (1) 0.2 Others (4) 0.2 Guangzhou (43) 7.9% Zhuhai (6) 3.5% Huizhou (2) 0.5% Poly Real Estate GREE TCL Corp Guangfa Securities Livzon Pharma EVE Energy Evergrande GREE Real Estate 0.1 Zhaoqing (1) 0.1% China South Air Ninestar Fenghua Advanced Tech GAC Group Hokai Medical 0.1 Jiangmen (1) 0.1% Others (38) 4.2 Others (1) LY itech 0.1 Source: Hang Seng Indexes Data as at 31 May 2018 (#) Number of companies Note: Index is still under research 9

11 We Are Thankful To Our Supporters 10

12 DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS Analyst Compensation: No part of the Analysts remuneration was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the analysis, comments or recommendations stated in this report. Market Making: Within 12 months before and after the publication of this report, this firm has not conducted, and will not participate in any market making in the listed securities of the companies covered in this report. Ownership of Shares: On the date ofpublication of this report, this firm does not own more than 1% of the common class of securities of the companies covered in this report. The analyst(s) who prepared this report may have financial interests in the common class of securities ofthe companies covered in this report. Investment Banking Service: Within 12 months before the publication of this report, this firm may have provided investment banking services to and received any compensation from the companies covered in this report. Affiliation and Employment Relationship: On the date of publication of this report, no director or employee of this firm is serving as a director, consultant or an employee ofthe companies covered in this report. Disclaimer This report is prepared, produced and published by Platinum Broking Company Limited and its affiliated companies based in Shanghai and Singapore. Platinum Broking Company Limited is a licensed corporation registered with Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. This report is for distribution in Hong Kong and in other jurisdictions to the extent permissible by applicable law. This is neither a solicitation nor a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instruments in jurisdictions where such a solicitation or recommendation would be illegal, including but not limited to the United States of America, the United Kingdom and the European Union. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual recipients. Investors should consider whether the analysis and recommendations in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances and if appropriate, seek professional advice. While we have made all reasonable endeavour to ensure the information in this report is true and up-to-date at the time of publication, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. The value of the securities referred to in this report may fluctuate. Neither Platinum Broking Company Limited, nor any of its holding or affiliated companies, nor any of its or their directors or employees, represent or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information in this report, and will not accept any responsibility or liability for any use of or reliance upon any of the content of this report. The use of any information herein is at the sole discretion and risk of the investors. This report is produced and published by Platinum Broking Company Limited Hong Kong Office: 21/F LHT Tower, 31 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong Telephone: Fax: Website: Shanghai Office: Platinum Holdings Company Ltd (Shanghai Representative Office), 11B Jin Ming Building, Block 2, 8 South Zun Yi Road, Shanghai Tel: Fax: Singapore Office: Platinum Securities Company Ltd, 1 Scotts Road, #24-14 Shaw Centre, Singapore Tel: Fax: Platinum Broking Company Limited. All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person for any purpose without the prior express consent of Platinum Broking Company Limited.