News Highlights. What s Inside

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1 Morning Insight OCTOBER 30, 2018 % Chg 29-Oct 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 34, (6.0) (8.8) NIFTY Index 10, (6.2) (9.1) NSEBANK Index 24, (0.6) (9.7) NIFTY 500 Index 8, (5.5) (10.1) CNXMcap Index 16, (2.4) (10.8) BSESMCAP Index 13, (3.8) (15.6) World Indices Dow Jones 24,443 (1.0) (7.6) (3.4) Nasdaq 7,050 (1.6) (12.4) (7.6) FTSE 7, (6.4) (8.8) NIKKEI 21,150 (0.2) (11.6) (5.4) Hangseng 21,150 (0.2) (11.6) (5.4) Shanghai 24, (10.9) (13.9) Value traded (Rs cr) Cash BSE 29-Oct 3,660 % Chg Day 24.1 Cash NSE 34, Derivatives 607, Net inflows (Rs cr) 26-Oct MTD YTD FII (1,333) (22,487) (37,549) Mutual Fund (727) 16, ,344 Nifty Gainers & Losers Price Chg Vol 29-Oct (Rs) (%) (mn) Gainers IndiaBulls ICICI Bank SBI Losers Indusind Bank 1,413 (2.3) 4.6 HDFC Bank 1,926 (1.8) 4.3 Kotak Mahindra 1,138 (1.8) 3.7 Advances / Declines (BSE) 29-Oct A B T Total % total Advances , Declines Unchanged Commodity % Chg 29-Oct 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Crude (US$/BBL) 77.0 (0.4) (6.9) 2.7 Gold (US$/OZ) 1,229.4 (0.3) Silver (US$/OZ) 14.5 (1.6) (1.2) (6.3) Debt / forex market 29-Oct 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths 10 yr G-Sec yield % Re/US$ Nifty 11,800 11,300 10,800 10,300 9,800 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Source: Bloomberg News Highlights India and Japan concluded a $75-bn bilateral currency swap agreement, a move intended to bring greater stability to the rupee and capital markets in India. (ToI) The Supreme Court prohibited the plying of 15-yr-old petrol and 10-yrold diesel vehicles in the national capital region and directed the transport department to announce that such vehicles will be impounded if found plying. (BS) The Supreme Court allowed the country's power regulator, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), to amend power purchase agreements (PPAs) of three power plants in the western state of Gujarat. Adani Power Ltd, Tata Power and Essar Power operate three power plants with a total capacity of 9,940 megawatts (mw) in the state based on imported coal from Indonesia. These projects ran into losses when the Indonesian government increased the price of coal, but the PPAs did not allow them to pass on the increase in fuel cost. (ET) Divis Laboratories Limited is creating additional capacities by spending as much as Rs 15 billion at its existing facilities in the next 15 months to more than make up for the delayed greenfield project plans in Kakinada. (BS) Tech Mahindra and Japanese telecom firm Rakuten Mobile Network on Monday said they have entered into an agreement to set up 5G and 4G network labs in Tokyo and Bengaluru. (BS) Tata Power revised issuance in one or more tranches, of non-cumulative, redeemable, taxable, listed, rated securities in the form of non-convertible debentures (NCDs) upto Rs 55 bn on private placement basis. (MC) Airtel Africa, the Africa unit of Bharti Airtel, said there is no change in its upcoming initial public offer (IPO) plans, saying they are on track. (ET) Cadila Healthcare has subscribed 51 percent shares of Windlas Healthcare Private Limited (Windlas) as per the share purchase agreement executed by the company and Windlas. Windlas has become a subsidiary of the company. (MC) Sunteck Realty issued commercial paper of Rs 250 mn. (MC) Digjam, which recently stopped operations at its manufacturing unit in Gujarat s Jamnagar, clarified that it was exploring various avenues to raise resources. (BS) Prashant Jhawar and Rajeev Jhawar, co-promoters of Usha Martin Ltd, have for now put aside their differences over the sale of the company s steel business and cleared the deck for its takeover by Tata Sponge Iron Ltd. (Mint) Reserve Bank of India has approved reappointment of Aditya Puri as MD & CEO of HDFC bank, from November 1, 2018 to October 26, 2020, up to the age 70 years. (FC) What s Inside Result Update: Supreme Industries Ltd. Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, IE = Indian Express, BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange, MC = Moneycontrol Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been prepared by the Private Client Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Equities Research Group of Kotak Securities Limited.

2 Result Update Stock Details Market cap (Rs mn) : wk Hi/Lo (Rs) : 1490 / 944 Face Value (Rs) : 2 3M Avg. daily vol (mn) : 63,652 Shares o/s (mn) : 127 Source: Bloomberg Financial Summary Y/E Mar (Rs mn) FY18 FY19E FY20E Revenue 49,663 57,656 67,243 Growth (%) EBITDA 7,871 8,781 10,519 EBITDA margin (%) PAT 3,971 4,434 5,469 EPS EPS Growth (%) BV (Rs/share) Dividend/share (Rs) ROE (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) , Kotak Securities - PCG Shareholding Pattern (%) (%) Sep-18 Jun-18 Mar-18 Promoters FII DII Others Price Performance (%) (%) 1M 3M 6M Supreme Industries (2.0) (17.8) (26.2) Nifty (6.2) (9.1) (4.1) Source: Bloomberg Price chart (Rs) 1,500 1,300 1, Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Source: Bloomberg Pankaj Kumar pankajr.kumar@kotak.com SUPREME INDUSTRIS LTD PRICE RS.987 TARGET RS.1205 BUY Supreme Industries Q2FY19 results was mixed bag. Results after adjusted for one off was ahead of estimates at topline, but was below our estimates in terms of margins. Key Highlights The company reported 24.7% yoy growth in revenue which was driven by Rs Rs mn contribution from sale of commercial real estate. Adjusted for the same, the revenue for the quarter grew by 17.1% yoy (Vs 15.9% yoy growth estimates). The adjusted revenue growth was driven by 5.2% growth in volume and 11.7% yoy growth in realization. The volume growth was below our estimates due to company s focus on high value products, low volume in cross laminated films and plant shutdown in packaging segment for maintenance. In core business, the EBITDA margin was at 13.3% and was below our estimates of 14.2% due to impact of rupee depreciation on imported raw materials, higher raw material prices due to rise in crude prices and lag effect in pass on of input cost. The company has reduced EBITDA margins guidance for FY19E by 100 bps to %. Valuation & outlook The company is positive on demand of its products and expects value driven growth in the coming years. We have marginally reduced FY19E & FY20E estimates based on lower volume assumptions. The stock is presently trading at PE of 28.3x and 22.9x on FY19E and FY20E revised EPS of Rs 34.9 and 43 per share, respectively. We upgrade our rating on the stock to Buy (Vs Accumulate earlier) with revised target price of Rs 1205 (vs Rs 1324), valuing the stock at 28x (Vs 29x) on FY20E earnings. Quarterly performance table Particulars Rs Mn Sep-18 Sep-17 YoY (%) Jun-18 QoQ (%) Net Sales 13,162 10, , Expenditure 11,037 9, , RM Cost 8,632 6, , Employee Cost Other Expenditure 1,807 1, , EBITDA 2,125 1, , EBITDAM (%) Other Income , PBIDT 2,179 1, , Depreciation Interest PBT 1, , Exceptional Items PBT (Aft exceptional items) 1, , Tax PAT 1, , Equity Capital EPS (Rs) Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2

3 Revenue growth ahead of estimates, volume disappoints SIL reported 24.7% yoy growth in revenue which was driven by Rs mn contribution from sale of sq.ft. of real estate. Adjusted for the same the revenue for the quarter grew by 17.1% yoy (Vs 15.9% yoy growth estimates). The adjusted revenue growth was driven by 5.2% growth in volume and 11.7% yoy growth in realization. The volume growth was below our estimates as it witnessed decline in volume in packaging film business and consumer segment. The volume got impacted as the company focused on high value products, low volume in cross laminated films and plant shutdown in packaging segment for maintenance. In consumer segment, the company focused on high value furniture rather than commoditized plastic furniture. The company expects improvement in volume in cross laminated film segment in the coming quarter. It is positive on plastic pipes demand from all sectors. Based on this, the management has guided for 10% growth in volume for FY19E (Vs 10-12% guided earlier). Segment-wise sales break up Sales Rs mn Sep-18 Sep-17 YoY (%) Jun-18 QoQ (%) Plastic Pipes 6,830 5, % 7, % Packaging 2,080 2, % 2, % Industrial 2,540 1, % 2, % Consumer % 1, % Segment-wise volume of plastic products business Sales tonnes Sep-18 Sep-17 YoY (%) Jun-18 QoQ (%) Plastic Pipes 56,627 52, % 69, % Packaging 10,443 10, % 12, % Industrial 11,453 10, % 12, % consumer 4,650 4, % 5, % Total 83,173 79, % 99, % Segment wise realization of plastic products business Realization Per Kg Sep-18 Sep-17 YoY (%) Jun-18 QoQ (%) Plastic Pipes % % Packaging % % Industrial % % consumer % % Total % % Q2FY19 core EBITDA margins was below our estimates, reduced margin guidance by 100bps EBITDA margins at 16.1% was driven by real estate sale. In core business the EBITDA margin was at 13.3% and was below our estimates of 14.2% due to impact of rupee depreciation on imported raw materials, higher raw material prices (made of crude derivatives) and lag effect in pass on of rise in imput cost. The company went aggressive in cross laminated film business which resulted in 210 bps decline in the EBITDA margin for the packaging segment. The company has reduced EBITDA margins guidance for FY19E by 100 bps to %. Adjusted PBT for the quarter grew by 11% yoy to Rs 1 bn as against our estimates of Rs 1.27 bn due to lower core margins. As a result, adjusted PAT for the quarter grew by 17% yoy to Rs mn (Vs estimates of Rs 828 mn). Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3

4 Segmental EBITDA margins in plastic products business Sep-18 Sep-17 Jun-18 Plastic Pipes 13.0% 12.3% 13.1% Packaging 15.7% 16.9% 17.8% Industrial 11.1% 12.8% 11.4% Consumer durables 16.5% 18.2% 15.3% Status of capex plan The company has guided for Rs bn capex in FY19E. The company's green field plant at (Ghiloth) Rajasthan has commenced commercial production in September The new plant to make HDPE Pipe of 9000 tonnes p.a. capacity at Malanpur unit III has commenced trial production. New plant to manufacture PP Corrugated Sheet with a capacity of 3600 tonnes p.a. has been commissioned at Derabassi Unit (Punjab). The production will also start in other green field plant at Jadcherla in Telangana where first phase may start in Q3FY19. This would increase the capacity of the company by 50,000 tonnes to over 600,000 tonnes in FY19E and another 50,000 in FY20E, with incremental revenue potential of Rs 11 bn. Other highlights The company is positive on composite cylinder business in FY19E and expects order from the domestic as well as international market. It has got an order from Bangladesh and Korea for supply of composite cylinders. It has made a breakthrough in export of Composite Cylinder in one more country apart from Bangladesh and South Korea. The company has sold 38,718 sq. ft. premises at Supreme Chambers at Andheri (West), Mumbai. It has realized Rs mn from sale of the premises. After allocating proportionate cost and overheads, Profit before tax accrued Rs. 531 mn and Profit after tax Rs 346 mn from construction business. Further, it has unsold inventory of 12,000 sqft. The gross debt at the end of the quarter stood at Rs 2.59 bn with average cost of borrowing at 7.07%. The company has comfortable debt to equity ratio of 0.1x. The share of value added products was 35% in Q2FY19 as against 37% in Q2FY18. The company intends to increase this share in FY19E. As per management, the PVC prices expected to be stable while PS and PE prices are expected to decline. The company does not expect any raw material price pressure in the near terms. The company targets to reduce debtor which is presently at 25 days. Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 4

5 Outlook and valuation SIL management believes that the plastic demand across most of the segment will be robust. We like SIL for its track record of profitable growth with high returns ratios and believe that its strong product profile and long term benefits from GST will support its growth in a longer run. We have maintained our FY19E & FY20E estimates. We expect earnings to grow at faster pace in the longer run on company s focus on increasing share of value added products and its ability to pass on increase in raw material prices. The stock is presently trading at PE of 28.3x and 22.9x on FY19E and FY20E revised EPS of Rs 34.9 and 43 per share, respectively. We upgrade our rating on the stock to BUY (Vs Accumulate earlier) with revised target price of Rs 1205 (vs Rs 1324 earlier), valuing the stock at 28x (Vs 29x earlier, factoring in increased volume growth risk) on FY20E earnings. Valuation Particulars (Rs mn) Previous Revised % Chg FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E Revenue 57,844 69,079 57,656 67, % -2.7% EBITDA 9,003 11,059 8,781 10, % -4.9% EBITDA margin (%) bps -40bps PAT 4,555 5,798 4,434 5, % -5.7% EPS (Rs) % -5.7% Source: Kotak Securities Private Client Research Company background Supreme Industries Ltd (SIL) established in 1942, is engaged in the business of plastic and related products with a long history in Indian plastic industry. It is one of the major players in the plastic pipes business with 14% domestic market share (FY17) with established brand equity. It is largest plastic processor in India processing over 3.4 lakh tonne per annum. The company manufactures and sells diverse range of plastic products broadly categorized across 5 different verticals, plastic piping system, packaging products, industrial products, consumer products, and composite products with FY17 revenue contribution of 56%, 22%, 14%, 7% and 1% respectively. Its products cater to diverse sectors such as Agriculture, Infrastructure, Housing, Packaged Foods, Sports goods, Potable Water Supply & Sanitation, Auto, Electronics, Horticulture, Floriculture, etc. It has 25 plants located across India with gross block of ~Rs 23 bn (FY17) and adding three more plants with capex of Rs bn. Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 5

6 Financials: Consolidated Profit and Loss Statement (Rs mn) (Year-end Mar) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Revenues 44,623 49,663 57,656 67,243 % change yoy Direct Cost 28,917 32,858 38,722 45,161 Employee Cost 2,117 2,419 2,709 3,034 Other Expenses 5,970 6,516 7,444 8,529 Total Expenses 37,004 41,792 48,875 56,724 EBITDA 7,619 7,871 8,781 10,519 % change yoy Depreciation 1,543 1,672 1,897 2,155 EBIT 6,076 6,200 6,884 8,364 Other Income Interest Profit Before Tax 5,825 6,028 6,731 8,302 % change yoy Tax 2,058 2,057 2,297 2,833 as % of EBT PAT 3,767 3,971 4,434 5,469 % change yoy Shares outstanding (mn) EPS (Rs) DPS (Rs) CEPS (Rs) BVPS (Rs) , Kotak Securities Private Client Research Balancesheet(Rsmn) (Year-end Mar) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Paid - Up Equity Capital Reserves 16,703 18,695 21,345 25,030 Net worth 16,957 18,949 21,599 25,284 Borrowings 2,790 2,484 2, Net Deferred Tax 1,163 1,134 1,134 1,134 Total Liabilities 20,910 22,567 25,217 26,902 Gross Block 22,983 25,521 29,521 33,021 Accumulated Depreciation 10,350 12,040 13,937 16,092 Net block 12,633 13,597 15,584 16,929 Capital work in progress Total fixed assets 13,092 14,223 16,210 17,555 Investments 1,972 2,194 2,194 2,194 Inventories 7,769 6,970 8,555 9,978 Sundry debtors 2,753 3,820 3,949 4,421 Cash and equivalents Loans and advances & Others Total current assets 12,785 12,595 14,774 16,460 Sundry creditors and others 6,767 6,461 8,093 9,439 Provisions Total CL & provisions 6,940 6,664 8,297 9,643 Net current assets 5,845 5,930 6,477 6,817 Other Assets (net) Total Assets 20,910 22,567 25,217 26,902, Kotak Securities Private Client Research Cash flow Statement (Rs mn) (Year-end Mar) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Pre-Tax Profit 5,825 6,028 6,731 8,302 Depreciation 1,543 1,672 1,897 2,155 Interest & others Change in WC (1,209) (527) (85) (552) Tax Paid (1,705) (2,057) (2,297) (2,833) Operating Cash Flow 4,650 5,335 6,469 7,204 Capex (2,099) (2,705) (4,000) (3,500) Free Cash Flow 2,551 2,629 2,469 3,704 Investments & others 77 (222) 0 0 Investment cash flow (2,022) (2,928) (4,000) (3,500) Equity Raised Debt Raised (1,331) (306) 0 (2,000) Dividend (459) (1,784) (1,784) (1,784) Interest & other fin activity (314) (759) (224) (132) CF from Financing (2,104) (2,849) (2,007) (3,916) Change in Cash 524 (442) 461 (212) Opening Cash Closing Cash , Kotak Securities Private Client Research Ratio Analysis (Year-end Mar) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Receivables (days) Inventory (days) Payable (days) Net Working Capital (days) Asset Turnover (x) Net Debt/ Equity (x) (0.0) RoCE (%) RoE (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Sales (x) , Kotak Securities Private Client Research Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 6

7 RATING SCALE Definitions of ratings BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 12 months ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 12 months REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NR Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposes only. SUBSCRIBE - We advise investor to subscribe to the IPO. RS Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a Sufficient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target. The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon. NA Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable NM Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded. NOTE Our target prices are with a 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark. FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH TEAM Rusmik Oza Arun Agarwal Amit Agarwal Nipun Gupta Deval Shah Head of Research Auto & Auto Ancillary Transportation, Paints, FMCG Information Tech, Midcap Research Associate rusmik.oza@kotak.com arun.agarwal@kotak.com agarwal.amit@kotak.com nipun.gupta@kotak.com deval.shah@kotak.com Sanjeev Zarbade Ruchir Khare Jatin Damania Cyndrella Carvalho Ledo Padinjarathala Cap. Goods & Cons. Durables Cap. Goods & Cons. Durables Metals & Mining, Midcap Pharmaceuticals Research Associate sanjeev.zarbade@kotak.com ruchir.khare@kotak.com jatin.damania@kotak.com cyndrella.carvalho@kotak.com ledo.padinjarathala@kotak.com Teena Virmani Sumit Pokharna Pankaj Kumar Jayesh Kumar Krishna Nain Construction, Cement, Buildg Mat Oil and Gas, Information Tech Midcap Economist M&A, Corporate actions teena.virmani@kotak.com sumit.pokharna@kotak.com pankajr.kumar@kotak.com kumar.jayesh@kotak.com krishna.nain@kotak.com K. Kathirvelu Support Executive k.kathirvelu@kotak.com TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM Shrikant Chouhan Amol Athawale shrikant.chouhan@kotak.com amol.athawale@kotak.com DERIVATIVES RESEARCH TEAM Sahaj Agrawal Malay Gandhi Prashanth Lalu Prasenjit Biswas, CMT, CFTe sahaj.agrawal@kotak.com malay.gandhi@kotak.com prashanth.lalu@kotak.com prasenjit.biswas@kotak.com Kotak Securities Private Client Research Please see the Disclosure/Disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 7

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