Massachusetts Program Administrators and Energy Efficiency Advisory Council

Transcription

1 2016 C&I CUSTOMER PROFILE PROJECT Deep Dive Report Exploration of HVAC Trends Massachusetts Program Administrators and Energy Efficiency Advisory Council Date: February 9, 2018

2 Table of contents 1 EXPLORATION OF HVAC TRENDS Key findings 2 2 ELECTRIC ANALYSIS Project-level analysis Population-level analysis Participant-level analysis Root cause analysis account details 26 3 GAS ANALYSIS Project-level analysis Population-level analysis Participant-level analysis Root cause analysis account details 57 List of figures Figure summary of HVAC activity, electric... 6 Figure trends in custom, prescriptive, and upstream HVAC projects, electric... 8 Figure trends in HVAC custom, prescriptive, and upstream savings, electric (kwh)... 9 Figure trends in HVAC new construction, retrofit, and upstream projects, electric Figure trends in HVAC new construction, retrofit, and upstream savings, electric Figure statewide HVAC participation rate and population savings achieved, electric Figure HVAC account participation for non-upstream, upstream, and dual-stream, electric 14 Figure HVAC population savings achieved for non-upstream and upstream, electric Figure HVAC account participation by industry sector, electric part Figure HVAC account participation by industry sector, electric part Figure HVAC account population savings achieved by industry sector, electric part Figure HVAC account population savings achieved by industry sector, electric part Figure HVAC participant savings achieved by PA, electric Figure Distribution of account-level HVAC participant savings achieved, electric Figure HVAC participant savings achieved by industry sector, electric Figure Annual contribution to total HVAC savings by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to total HVAC incentives by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC savings from top 5 saving technologies by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC incentives for top 5 saving technologies by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC motors/drives savings by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC motors/drives incentives by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC controls savings by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC controls incentives by PA, electric Figure summary of HVAC activity, gas Figure trends in custom and prescriptive HVAC projects, gas Figure trends in custom and prescriptive HVAC savings, gas Figure trends in HVAC new construction and retrofit projects, gas Figure trends in HVAC new construction and retrofit savings, gas Figure statewide HVAC participation rate and population savings achieved, gas Figure HVAC account participation rates, gas (includes unlinked tracking data) Figure HVAC population savings achieved, gas Figure HVAC account participation by industry sector, gas DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page i

3 Figure HVAC population savings achieved by industry sector, gas Figure HVAC participant savings achieved by PA, gas Figure Distribution of HVAC participant savings achieved, gas Figure HVAC participant savings achieved by industry sector, gas Figure Annual contribution to total HVAC savings by PA, gas Figure Annual contribution to total HVAC incentives by PA, gas Figure Annual contribution to HVAC savings from top 5 saving technologies by PA, gas.. 60 Figure Annual contribution to HVAC incentives for top 5 saving technologies by PA, gas. 61 Figure Annual contribution to HVAC controls savings by PA, gas Figure Annual contribution to HVAC controls incentives by PA, gas Figure Annual contribution to HVAC steam traps savings by PA, gas Figure Annual contribution to HVAC steam traps incentives by PA, gas List of tables Table summary of broad end uses installed, electric... 4 Table summary of statewide HVAC activity, electric... 7 Table HVAC tracking statistics by PA and track, electric... 7 Table HVAC tracking statistics by PA and class, electric Table summary of unique HVAC participants, electric Table summary of HVAC participant savings, electric (kwh) Table summary of HVAC incentives, electric Table HVAC account participation and population savings summary statistics by industry sector, electric Table HVAC participant savings achieved by PA, electric Table HVAC participant savings achieved by industry sector, electric Table summary of HVAC technology savings, electric Table summary of HVAC technologies installed by accounts, electric Table summary of savings by HVAC technologies installed, electric Table summary of incentives by HVAC technologies installed, electric Table summary of broad end uses installed, gas Table summary of statewide HVAC activity, gas Table HVAC tracking statistics by PA and track, gas Table HVAC summary statistics by PA and class, gas Table unique HVAC participants, gas Table HVAC participant savings, gas (therms) Table HVAC incentives, gas Table HVAC account participation and population savings summary statistics by industry sector, gas Table HVAC participant savings achieved by PA, gas Table HVAC participant savings achieved by industry sector, gas Table summary of HVAC technologies installed, gas Table summary of participating accounts by HVAC technologies installed, gas Table summary of savings by HVAC technologies installed, gas (therms) Table summary of incentives by HVAC technologies installed, gas DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page ii

4 1 EXPLORATION OF HVAC TRENDS This Deep Dive report summarizes trends in HVAC installations from 2011 to The methodology used throughout this Deep Dive stems from the 2016 Comprehensive C&I Customer Profile report. 1 Based on the analysis plan, the primary objectives of this Deep Dive are: 1. To delve more deeply into details of HVAC, which has been steadily decreasing in gross energy savings (kwh and therms) and share of savings over the past few years 2. To understand the composition of HVAC gross energy savings in terms of measures, customers, and savings year over year There are several important things to note throughout this report: All savings numbers presented are gross annual savings totals in either kwh or therms. The end use category HVAC encompasses end uses that impact HVAC as both a technology and a system. This includes technologies installed under PA-sponsored HVAC programs (e.g., high efficiency chillers) as well as items such as motors/drives (variable speed drives), insulation, and custom technologies. The technologies included are shown in tables in section and section This report s Electric analysis and Gas analysis sections share a common structure, as follows: The project-level analysis summarizes information provided in the 2016 C&I Customer Profile report and offers additional high-level information specific to HVAC projects on: - Project-level track (custom, prescriptive, or upstream) - Project-level class (initiative or program: retrofit, new construction, or upstream) o The new construction class includes true new construction, major retrofit, replace on failure, and initial purchase 2 o Upstream HVAC is currently an offering under the new construction program, but has been included as its own class to promote overall transparency. Generally, upstream participation would fall under replace on failure or true new construction. The population-level analysis provides: - Statewide and by-pa breakdowns of HVAC installations for the general population, focusing primarily on the number of participating accounts, associated HVAC savings, and HVAC incentives - Statewide breakdowns by industry sector over the analysis period, focusing primarily on the number of participating accounts, associated HVAC savings, and HVAC incentives The participant-level analysis presents summary information for participating accounts that we successfully linked to their corresponding billing data. This linking provides a more in-depth view of how HVAC-specific installations impact overall usage. The root cause analysis delves into some of the primary drivers of changes in HVAC trends from (analysis period), exploring the influence of the various PAs, end uses, and industry sectors. This analysis is unique to the Deep Dive and was developed under the Detailed Drill-Down task proposed in the analysis plan. - Supporting tables in this section provide additional details about the different types of technologies installed under the broad HVAC end use 1 DNV GL, 2016 Comprehensive Commercial and Industrial Customer Profile Report, Massachusetts Energy Efficiency Advisory Council. Forthcoming. 2 Due to data collection/storage practices these subcategories cannot be broken out systemically in the data. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 1

5 Our analysis involved generating the following statistics for the various analysis lenses: Account participation. This metric identifies the ratio of accounts within the analysis population (e.g., industry sector, PA, etc.) that participated in energy efficiency programs. It can answer questions such as, What percent of manufacturing accounts participated in an efficiency program for each PA? (Number of Participating Accounts within Analysis Population) (Number of Accounts within Analysis Population) Population savings achieved. This metric looks at the energy savings of efficiency participants within a specific analysis population (e.g., industry sector, PA) relative to the usage of the total analysis population. It can answer questions such as, How much energy did the Massachusetts manufacturing sector save relative to its total usage? (Sum of Savings for Participating Accounts within Analysis Population) (Sum of Usage of all Accounts within Analysis Population) Participant savings achieved. This metric reflects energy savings as a proportion of a participant s energy usage. It can answer questions such as, How much energy did participating manufacturers save relative to their usage? (Sum of Savings for Participating Accounts within Analysis Population) (Sum of Usage of Participating Accounts Only within Analysis Population) Contribution ratio. This metric measures the proportional savings contribution to total savings for a specific analysis bin relative to the proportional usage contribution to total usage. This lens provides a more normalized view of a bin s savings relative to its usage by incorporating population-level weights. Savings for analysis bin ( Total savings for all analysis bins ) Usage for analysis bin ( Total usage for all analysis bins ) Throughout this report, asterisks (*) within tables denote values that have been suppressed due to the participation of fewer than 15 accounts. Notably, this report does not include any building-level analysis, which was one potential new analysis grain proposed in the analysis plan. The DNV GL team attempted to perform this analysis but could not sufficiently explore and support it under the current Deep Dive timeline and budget. 1.1 Key findings This analysis yielded the following key findings across the electric and gas PAs: HVAC trends in historic participation, savings, and incentives are driven primarily by results from the largest PAs in the electric and gas markets. However, this dynamic plays out slightly differently in the two markets. o In the electric market, Eversource and National Grid have a tendency to trend together over time; this compounds any yearly changes in participation, savings, and/or incentives. Since the electric market has only two large PAs, diverging statewide results in participation, savings and incentives tend to mirror the PA with more extreme yearly differences. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 2

6 o In the gas market, the existence of a third large PA, Columbia, decreases the correlation between a single large PA s results and the overall statewide results. However, substantial annual differences between multiple large PAs do have statewide impacts. Across the electric and gas PAs, the Health Care and Social Assistance, Educational Services, and Manufacturing industry sectors play important roles each year. These sectors have also seen heavy participation and savings over the past 6 years, likely because they contain some of the largest electric and gas accounts, and have historically been targeted as a deep savings pool. Additional analysis and research into the existing opportunities for HVAC engagement in these sectors may better inform more targeted participation efforts, or a retargeting of efforts if many of the largest customers in these sectors have already been fully engaged. For the electric PAs, it appears that HVAC savings are becoming costlier to achieve (in terms of $/kwh saved); this trend is less apparent for the gas PAs, although 2016 could point toward a similar pattern emerging. There may be an opportunity for increased cross-fuel efforts to ensure that customers engaging in future HVAC programs (especially large customers) are aware of both electric and gas opportunities relevant to their particular circumstances. The PAs might benefit from deeper research into previous HVAC participants to identify the dynamics of cross-fuel participation. While the gas analysis was able to identify where decreases in HVAC participation and savings are occurring across the PAs, industry sectors and end uses, it did not yield answers as to why this trend is occurring. The PAs may want to consider a more advanced customer analytics study to help address this question, and identify specific strategies to encourage participation with targeted customer groups. The geographic analysis, provided in the attached PowerPoint presentation, allows for the specific targeting of towns where historic participation rates and/or population savings achieved have been low or not identified. Building on the geographic trends, the PAs may want to consider leveraging tax and geographic data fields to develop a decision tree for geotargeting HVAC installation candidates. This decision tree could be leveraged to help target a wider spread of customer sizes (by annual usage) if the PAs deem such an effort beneficial. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 3

7 2 ELECTRIC ANALYSIS Project-level analysis This section summarizes high-level analyses of HVAC projects in the electric market. In the following analysis, all tracking data is restricted to reflect HVAC-only impacts (on number of projects, number of participating accounts, amount of savings, and incentives paid). The electric market has two different sources of HVAC savings that are noted throughout the analysis: Non-upstream HVAC, which exists across all years in the analysis Upstream HVAC, which began in The 2013 data, coming from the first year, has quality issues that disconnect savings from specific projects; this causes the 2013 data to be suppressed in tables throughout the section. For brevity, these quality issues are referred to in the report as data artifacts. Table 2-1 shows the overall summary of all electric projects in 2016 by end use. This table comes from the 2016 C&I Comprehensive Customer Profile Report. Combined, HVAC and upstream HVAC make up nearly 7% of projects and 14% of savings statewide, making them the second-largest end use by both metrics after combined lighting and upstream lighting. Section offers more detail about what the HVAC category includes. Within the HVAC broad end use, motors/drives play a large role in annual participating accounts (69%) and savings (34%). Table summary of broad end uses installed, electric Broad end uses 2016 projects 2016 population savings (kwh) 2016 total incentives % of 2016 projects % of 2016 savings 2016 contribution ratio Building Shell 61 3,883,817 $1,237, % 0.5% 2.27 CHP 22 77,916,841 $11,199, % 9.8% Comprehensive Design 97 12,651,536 $3,771, % 1.6% 4.66 Compressed Air ,429,261 $2,410, % 1.6% 2.24 Food Service 44 30,331 $34, % 0.0% 0.02 Hot Water ,389 $43, % 0.0% 0.06 HVAC ,493,631 $19,343, % 13.1% 4.64 Upstream HVAC 1,066 9,366,940 $3,433, % 1.2% 1.70 Upstream Lighting 16, ,808,802 $21,832, % 21.2% 2.43 Lighting 6, ,939,937 $113,017, % 40.9% 5.72 Motors/Drives 82 5,585,424 $1,205, % 0.7% 0.78 Process ,603,659 $13,625, % 7.0% 0.09 Refrigeration ,893,322 $3,985, % 1.9% 1.26 N/A 1,371 3,634,731 $3,197, % 0.5% 0.36 Other * * * * Total 28, ,452,621 $198,338,466 *Lines have been suppressed and removed from Total Figure 2-1 summarizes the details of HVAC projects over the 6-year analysis period, as follows: Over time, the number of HVAC projects has increased. Since 2014 this increase has been entirely the result of the introduction and growth of the upstream HVAC program. Non-upstream project growth was relatively small from 2011 to 2014 and has declined since, though individual years show some variability. Overall, there was a minor increase in annual savings from 2011 to 2014, followed by a decline through Notably, the upstream HVAC program has helped stabilize HVAC savings over time; without the upstream program, savings in 2015 would have been the lowest of the 6-year period. It is important to note that the upstream program does not increase annual savings to the same degree that it increases the number of annual projects; upstream HVAC includes many HVAC measures that formerly were prescriptive (deemed), such as unitary systems and dual enthalpy economizers. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 4

8 From 2012 to 2014, while the annual incentives paid in HVAC programs increased substantially, savings did not show a corresponding increase. This indicates that it was relatively costly to the PAs to achieve HVAC savings from 2012 to Although 2015 and 2016 show a distinct drop in savings and incentives, the overall $/kwh savings remained relatively consistent with Upstream $/kwh are substantially higher than non-upstream, and therefore offset a slight downward trend in non-upstream $/kwh in 2015 and The spike in the 2014 upstream incentive per savings measure is largely due to data quality. Several accounts recorded incentives, but no savings for this year, causing this measure to be artificially inflated. Removing these accounts results in a $/kwh of $0.20. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 5

9 Figure summary of HVAC activity, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 6

10 Table 2-2 presents the information illustrated in Figure 2-1. Due to data artifacts, the 2013 upstream data has been suppressed. Table summary of statewide HVAC activity, electric Year Projects Savings (kwh) Incentives Incentive per kwh saved Non-upstream Upstream Total Non-upstream Upstream Total Non-upstream Upstream Total Non-upstream Upstream Total ,514,022 94,514,022 $ 14,518,657 $ 14,518,657 $ 0.15 $ ,105 1, ,519, ,519,282 $ 24,346,244 $ 24,346,244 $ 0.18 $ ,023 * 1, ,849,389 * 122,849,389 $ 26,391,560 * $ 26,391,560 $ 0.21 * $ , , ,133,546 3,561, ,694,717 $ 27,370,614 $ 1,487,328 $ 28,857,942 $ 0.21 $ 0.42 $ ,746 88,674,130 11,690, ,364,181 $ 17,176,279 $ 2,960,945 $ 20,137,225 $ 0.19 $ 0.25 $ ,066 1, ,493,631 9,366, ,860,571 $ 19,343,132 $ 3,433,412 $ 22,776,544 $ 0.19 $ 0.37 $ 0.20 Total 4,304 1,340 5, ,176,346 15,251, ,427,569 $ 95,284,698 $ 4,448,273 $ 99,732,971 $ 0.20 $ 0.29 $ 0.20 *Lines have been suppressed and removed from Total Project-level track summary Table 2-3 shows how HVAC projects are split between the various programs for each PA in Statewide, the custom program is the primary driver of annual HVAC savings, while prescriptive and upstream are the primary drivers of the number of annual projects. There is variation among the PAs, with Cape Light Compact and Unitil showing higher engagement in their prescriptive programs, which is partially due to these PAs being able to engage smaller customers. Table HVAC tracking statistics by PA and track, electric Custom Prescriptive Upstream PA % Projects Savings (kwh) Projects % Savings Projects Savings (kwh) % Projects % Savings Projects Savings (kwh) % Projects % Savings Cape Light Compact ,407 14% 37% ,479 22% 27% ,025 64% 36% Eversource ,102,807 15% 69% ,022,135 27% 21% 580 7,656,994 57% 10% National Grid 75 9,255,703 10% 27% ,202,132 34% 70% 413 1,173,339 56% 3% Unitil * - 0% 0% * 153,968 67% 56% * 119,584 33% 44% Total ,796,917 13% 56% ,696,714 29% 36% 1,064 9,366,940 57% 8% * Counts represent unique combinations of account, track, and end use. May exceed the number of projects from end use, and may not equal number of projects from project class tables. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 7

11 Figure 2-2 shows the historic yearly composition of HVAC project track by PA: Cape Light Compact has consistently had greater customer HVAC engagement in the prescriptive program than the other PAs. Unitil has more variation than the other PAs in program engagement, likely due to its smaller overall population, but might not be able to sustain consistent year-over-year HVAC projects. Prior to the creation of the upstream HVAC program, engagement across the PAs was primarily through prescriptive installations. The upstream program has substantially shifted the mix of HVAC projects away from prescriptive. Eversource has historically experienced heavy engagement through custom projects, though this has been decreasing over time. However, Figure 2-3 shows that custom projects still remain a substantial source of savings each year. Figure trends in custom, prescriptive, and upstream HVAC projects, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 8

12 Figure 2-3 illustrates the share of savings associated with each track. Both Eversource and National Grid show a trend of decreased proportional savings from custom projects over time, which could indicate that it is becoming more difficult and costly (see Figure 2-1) to engage customers in these high-impact custom opportunities. The availability of upstream options could also be attracting customers not previously reached by other offerings. Eversource has consistently generated a higher percentage of savings from custom projects than the other PAs, which may indicate that its recruitment strategies for customers needing custom solutions have a larger impact and could be emulated by the other PAs. Figure trends in HVAC custom, prescriptive, and upstream savings, electric (kwh) DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 9

13 Project-level class summary Table 2-4 summarizes the 2016 breakdown between the retrofit, new construction, and upstream classes. Upstream HVAC is currently an offering under the new construction program, but has been included as its own class to increase overall transparency. Generally, upstream participation would fall under replace on failure or true new construction. It is important to note that there is not a direct, one-to-one relationship between project track and project class: this causes differences in project counts. 4 Following the trend beginning in 2015, upstream installations outweighed retrofit installations as the primary source of HVAC projects in Retrofit was the primary contributor to savings by a substantial margin, which indicates that these projects typically have high savings associated with each installation. Table HVAC tracking statistics by PA and class, electric PA Projects New Construction Savings (kwh) % Projects % Savings Projects Savings (kwh) % Projects % Savings Projects Savings (kwh) % Projects % Savings Cape Light Compact * 443,601 13% 38% ,285 23% 27% ,025 65% 36% Eversource ,273,711 14% 21% ,851,231 28% 69% 580 7,656,994 58% 10% National Grid 58 3,317,306 8% 10% ,140,529 36% 87% 413 1,173,339 56% 3% Unitil * 153,968 67% 56% * - 0% 0% * 119,584 33% 44% Total ,188,585 11% 18% ,305,046 31% 74% 1,064 9,366,940 58% 8% * Counts represent unique combinations of account, class, and end use. May exceed the number of projects, and may not equal the number of projects from project track table. Retrofit Upstream 4 See the 2016 Comprehensive Customer Profile report for additional details. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 10

14 Figure 2-4 shows that both National Grid and Eversource have had proportionally fewer HVAC-related new construction projects over the past 6 years, with National Grid showing the most consistent decrease over time. Cape Light Compact s new construction HVAC projects represent a more variable portion of overall projects, with clear spikes in 2012 and Figure trends in HVAC new construction, retrofit, and upstream projects, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 11

15 Figure 2-5 shows that for each initiative, the relationship between number of projects and share of savings is relatively weak. Despite the decreasing number of projects for both Eversource and National Grid, each PA s new construction savings have been variable over the past 6 years, with National Grid showing little relationship between proportional projects and savings in its new construction program. Cape Light Compact presents a strong positive relationship, with proportional projects and savings rising and falling together. Figure trends in HVAC new construction, retrofit, and upstream savings, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 12

16 2.1.2 Population-level analysis General population To provide a more holistic view of the role HVAC plays in achieving annual results, this section discusses participating HVAC accounts in more depth. This includes a look at annual billing data and at the contribution of HVAC installations toward decreasing annual usage. This view is slightly more restricted than the project-level view, as it is possible for a single account to participate in multiple HVAC projects over the course of a single year. Figure 2-6 shows the overall statewide electric trends for HVAC in terms of annual participation rates and population savings achieved. The introduction of the upstream HVAC program had a substantial impact on annual HVAC participation rates, almost doubling the rates seen prior to Annual population savings achieved closely mirrors the trend for total program savings seen in Figure 2-1, with a large increase observed between 2011 and 2012 and a steady decline since 2012 (although 2016 shows a promising, though slight, increase). The participation rate increase and simultaneous annual savings decrease suggest that the upstream program is not achieving the same savings per project as the other HVAC programs. Figure statewide HVAC participation rate and population savings achieved, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 13

17 Figure 2-7 provides a by-pa breakdown of annual participation rates, with details into the role played by the upstream program: HVAC participation for Cape Light Compact generally increased from 2011 to 2015 due to both non-upstream and upstream program participants showed a marked decrease in participation, although the share of upstream participants more than tripled. Eversource non-upstream participation spiked in 2014, but has largely been decreasing since The upstream HVAC program has helped encourage additional participation, making the period substantially higher than National Grid also saw non-upstream participation spike in 2014 and fall in The upstream program kept 2016 similar to overall prior participation rates. Unitil has a highly variable annual participation rate, largely due to its small number of accounts. However, overall participation increased from , with a 2014 spike similar to the other PAs. Figure HVAC account participation for non-upstream, upstream, and dual-stream, electric Figure 2-8 provides details into the annual population savings achieved attributed to HVAC programs: DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 14

18 Cape Light Compact s population savings achieved decreased from 2011 to 2013, then spiked in 2014 before returning to comparable levels in 2015 and Eversource had three years with relatively high population savings achieved from 2012 to was the lowest year for population savings achieved, although 2016 returned to nearly the same levels as Though savings in individual years vary, National Grid saw a steady increase in HVAC population savings achieved through 2015, with 2016 appearing to be a reversion to pre-2015 levels. Figure HVAC population savings achieved for non-upstream and upstream, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 15

19 Table 2-5 and Table 2-6 provide specific details for the above charts. Additionally, Table 2-7 summarizes incentives by PA for the same period. Table summary of unique HVAC participants, electric PA 2011 unique 2012 unique 2013 unique 2014 unique 2015 unique 2016 unique Total number of unique participants participants participants participants participants participants participants Cape Light Compact Eversource ,502 National Grid ,223 Unitil * * * * * * 19 Total 834 1, ,700 1,704 1,806 7,249 Table summary of HVAC participant savings, electric (kwh) PA 2011 participant savings (kwh) 2012 participant savings (kwh) Table summary of HVAC incentives, electric 2013 participant savings (kwh) 2014 participant savings (kwh) 2015 participant savings (kwh) 2016 participant savings (kwh) Total savings (kwh) Cape Light Compact 1,929,163 1,077,543 1,006,955 4,361,905 2,187,482 1,173,910 11,736,959 Eversource 70,142,144 96,614,662 87,667,491 90,930,966 50,011,008 76,781, ,148,207 National Grid 22,441,559 39,693,834 33,594,491 36,382,601 48,045,475 34,631, ,789,134 Unitil * * * * * * 2,180,154 Total 94,512, ,386, ,268, ,675, ,243, ,587, ,854,454 PA 2011 incentives 2012 incentives 2013 incentives 2014 incentives 2015 incentives 2016 incentives Total incentives Cape Light Compact $ 290,726 $ 1,676,621 $ 394,390 $ 1,370,339 $ 1,087,913 $ 631,264 $ 5,451,253 Eversource $ 10,670,990 $ 14,549,177 $ 17,155,642 $ 17,036,942 $ 9,444,795 $ 14,514,235 $ 83,371,781 National Grid $ 3,554,591 $ 8,053,022 $ 8,734,729 $ 10,440,887 $ 9,585,272 $ 7,598,021 $ 47,966,522 Unitil * * * * * * $ 436,026 Total $ 14,516,307 $ 24,278,820 $ 26,284,761 $ 28,848,168 $ 20,117,980 $ 22,743,521 $ 137,225,582 DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 16

20 Industry sector Table 2-8 summarizes the 2016 electric HVAC activity by industry sector. The upstream program has had a substantial impact in the following sectors: Accommodation and Food Services Finance and Insurance Retail Trade Table HVAC account participation and population savings summary statistics by industry sector, electric Industry sector Non-upstream participating accounts 2016 tracking accounts Upstream only participating accounts Dual-stream participating accounts Total participating accounts 2016 billing accounts 2016 savings (kwh) 2016 gross participant upstream savings (kwh) 2016 incentives paid 2015 full year usage (kwh) 2016 account participation rate 2016 population savings achieved 2016 population savings achieved, upstream only Accommodation and Food Services * ,131 7,420,676 1,985,120 $2,185,992 2,494,195, % 0.3% 0.1% Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation * * * * 4,359 43,671 * * 125,826,696 * * * Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting * * * * 700 1,736 * * 14,460,225 * * * Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation * 51 5,367 1,395, ,888 $430, ,509, % 0.3% 0.0% Construction * * * 15 10, ,841 * $166, ,816, % 0.2% * Educational Services * 157 7,659 14,021, ,344 $3,035,802 1,965,553, % 0.7% 0.0% Finance and Insurance * 81 9,003 1,435, ,898 $535, ,151, % 0.2% 0.1% Health Care and Social Assistance * ,787 10,952, ,517 $1,943,297 2,377,872, % 0.5% 0.0% Information * * * 17 15,160 3,289,408 * $571, ,606, % 0.3% * Management of Companies and Enterprises * * * * ,800 * * 124,708,138 * * * Manufacturing * 142 9,221 22,628, ,125 $3,820,099 3,924,183, % 0.6% 0.0% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Other Services (except Public Administration) * 19 * 31 19,570 1,863, ,245 $311, ,316, % 0.3% 0.0% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services * ,745 10,006, ,301 $2,132,101 4,134,258, % 0.2% 0.0% Public Administration * ,309 3,295, ,158 $1,024, ,192, % 0.4% 0.0% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing * ,745 22,316, ,075 $3,772,626 3,039,723, % 0.7% 0.0% Retail Trade * ,940 4,611,260 1,888,112 $1,123,642 3,197,840, % 0.1% 0.1% Transportation and Warehousing * * * * 10, ,213 * * 375,091,912 * * * Utilities * * * * 3,619 3,800,026 * * 449,486,203 * * * Wholesale Trade * * * * 4, ,480 * * 423,958,008 * * * Unknown * ,797 4,280,877 1,328,339 $1,060, ,678, % 1.1% 0.4% Total 711 1,003-1, , ,860,571 9,079,123 $22,114,272 26,964,430, % 0.42% 0.03% DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 17

21 Figure 2-9 and Figure 2-10 show historic participation rates by industry sector, broken out by non-upstream, upstream, and dual-stream participation. There are several sectors with consistently higher HVAC engagement: Educational Services, which increased steadily through 2015 before dropping in 2016 Manufacturing, which increased substantially in 2015 and 2016 due to both upstream and non-upstream participation Retail Trade, which has been increasing similar to Educational Services. In addition to generally high HVAC engagement, these sectors tend to have the highest upstream participation rates. Figure HVAC account participation by industry sector, electric part 1 DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 18

22 Figure HVAC account participation by industry sector, electric part 2 Figure 2-11 and Figure 2-12 show the population savings achieved by industry sector. While many of the industries with the highest savings achieved are also those with the highest participation (noted above), we also note that the DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 19

23 Health Care and Social Assistance and Utilities sectors typically have low participation but high savings achieved. This indicates that these types of accounts could be high-value participants. Figure HVAC account population savings achieved by industry sector, electric part 1 DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 20

24 Figure HVAC account population savings achieved by industry sector, electric part 2 DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 21

25 2.1.3 Participant-level analysis The section focuses on HVAC participants that could be successfully linked to their accounts corresponding usage data. This analysis includes only a limited amount of upstream data, since upstream data often does not systematically provide account numbers; this section therefore contains no upstream breakouts. Overall, this analysis includes 85% of all electric HVAC savings in 2016; any conclusions drawn from the data in this section should take this into account. Table 2-9 shows the average savings results for participating accounts with identified billing information. In 2016, Eversource and National Grid had the deepest average participant savings achieved, at 3.3% and 3.2% of annual usage, respectively. Table HVAC participant savings achieved by PA, electric PA 2016 participant savings (kwh) 2015 participant usage (kwh) 2016 participant savings achieved Cape Light Compact 897,951 30,718, % Eversource 62,340,417 1,873,090, % National Grid 33,217,355 1,049,474, % Unitil 2, , % Total 96,458,383 2,953,395, % Figure 2-13 shows the historical average participant savings achieved across the PAs: Cape Light Compact and Unitil both show variable results, likely due to their engagement of large customers in their respective territories. Eversource and National Grid both show more stable annual participant savings achieved. Figure HVAC participant savings achieved by PA, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 22

26 Figure 2-14 shows the depth of savings achieved for participating accounts that have identified billing information. Annually, the majority of accounts engaged save from 0 5% of their previous year s usage. In 2016, 46% of upstream participants saw participant savings achieved from 0 5%. While individual account opportunities for savings vary, this chart shows that it is possible to more deeply engage accounts. Previous participants with low depth of savings may provide the PAs with additional opportunities for re-engagement and additional savings. Figure Distribution of account-level HVAC participant savings achieved, electric 5 5 Accounts with participant savings achieved >100% exist across PAs. The most prevalent trends inside this bin are new construction projects and accounts on large campuses. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 23

27 Table 2-10 shows the 2016 average participant results by industry sector. Figure 2-15 shows the values over the past 6 years. Over this period, there have been large participants in multiple industries that have caused breaks in trends, but overall this cannot be expected to happen in any given year or industry. Table HVAC participant savings achieved by industry sector, electric mean 2016 median 2016 participant 2016 participants' 2016 incentives participant Industry sector participant participant savings (kwh) 2015 usage (kwh) paid savings savings savings achieved Accommodation and Food Services 5,445,953 42,217 11, ,261,490 $1,299, % Administrative and Support and Waste 2,739 1,369 1, ,194 $2, % Management and Remediation Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1, ,327 $ % Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,232,721 38,523 7,921 32,798,809 $368, % Construction 642,464 49,420 3,644 27,585,132 $114, % Educational Services 12,216, ,528 40, ,533,701 $2,709, % Finance and Insurance 1,137,595 28,440 15,109 95,082,628 $307, % Health Care and Social Assistance 9,796, ,010 9, ,757,442 $1,634, % Information 2,976, ,599 43,826 29,889,523 $492, % Management of Companies and Enterprises 16,800 16,800 16, ,038 $4, % Manufacturing 21,973, ,668 34, ,712,578 $3,689, % Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction $0 0.0% Other Services (except Public Administration) 1,611,204 61,969 3,397 36,576,800 $220, % Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 9,057,003 66,596 5, ,505,650 $1,773, % Public Administration 1,745,298 31,166 17,057 15,019,617 $580, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 20,707, ,257 22, ,425,662 $3,591, % Retail Trade 2,790,776 27,908 5,896 68,854,644 $619, % Transportation and Warehousing 757, , ,991,290 $70, % Utilities 3,800, , ,336 66,170,998 $465, % Wholesale Trade 428,571 61,224 11,472 7,996,346 $104, % Unknown 118,064 9,839 6,257 1,061,681 $29, % Total 96,458,383 2,953,395,551 $18,077, % DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 24

28 Figure HVAC participant savings achieved by industry sector, electric 6 6 * in chart indicates data has been suppressed due to data artifacts causing overestimation of participant savings achieved. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 25

29 2.1.4 Root cause analysis account details This section identifies any overall drivers of the results presented in the sections above. The charts in this section look at each year s overall contribution to the historic results of HVAC activities. We present charts by PA, end use technology, and industry sector combinations. These charts are designed around the sentence, The 2016 results for [PA] were X% of total [savings, incentives] over the past 6 years. Tables containing statewide data for these charts are provided in section In this section, it is useful to keep in mind that for 2015: Eversource was the largest electric PA, with 54% of statewide usage. National Grid accounted for 43% of statewide usage. Cape Light Compact accounted for 3% and Unitil accounted for 1% of statewide usage. Figure 2-16 shows how each PA has contributed to total HVAC savings from 2011 to Notable observations include: The Eversource results have been the key driver of overall statewide HVAC savings trends since 2011 and have contributed 67% of the total HVAC savings over the past 6 years. National Grid s contribution to historic savings has been increasing over time, but was not large enough to compensate for the decrease from Eversource in National Grid accounts for 31% of total HVAC savings since National Grid and Eversource results converged in 2015, but diverged again in It is unclear whether these PAs will continue their respective trends in the future or find a common steady state of annual HVAC savings. Figure Annual contribution to total HVAC savings by PA, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 26

30 Figure 2-17 shows the relative proportion each PA has contributed to total HVAC incentives paid over the analysis period: As with savings, the Eversource results have been driving the entire market s results. Notably, the contribution to total incentives shows an increasing trend from , whereas savings (Figure 2-16) shows a more variable trend. This provides further evidence that savings became costlier to obtain during this period. Figure Annual contribution to total HVAC incentives by PA, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 27

31 Table 2-11 shows each technology type s contribution to total HVAC electric savings since The top 5 largest savings technologies account for 93% of total HVAC savings. These technologies are: Motors/drives (31% of 6-year savings) Controls (28% of 6-year savings) Chillers (23% of 6-year savings) Other (8% of 6-year savings) - Other includes HVAC-labeled measures that do not fall into the other bins shown in Table Upstream HVAC (4% of 6-year savings) Table summary of HVAC technology savings, electric 7 Detailed end use participants savings (kwh) incentives Boilers * * * Chiller ,296,644 $ 33,375,679 Controls 2, ,701,804 $ 41,817,843 DCV ,573 $ 53,355 DEEC 306 5,162,940 $ 361,169 Dry Cooler * * * Fuel Switch 17 5,164,006 $ 2,840,172 Furnace * * * Heat Pump 270 4,712,701 $ 1,090,411 HVAC 128 9,228,934 $ 2,262,833 Insulation 16 6,561 $ 10,762 Motors/Drives 1, ,793,268 $ 32,770,758 Other ,041,033 $ 10,753,383 Refrigeration * * * Steam Traps * * * Unitary 696 9,893,248 $ 3,357,990 Upstream HVAC 2,411 25,670,455 $ 8,079,095 Water Heaters * * * Total 9, ,854,454 $ 137,225,582 7 HVAC as a technology indicates that the only detail provided for these end uses was HVAC. These are largely custom in nature. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 28

32 Figure 2-18 through Figure 2-23 show each PA s contribution to the installation of the most prevalent technologies over the past 6 years. Each of these figures is isolated to the savings or incentives shown in the figure. Note that some PAs will not appear in a figure if they do not have identified data for the specific technology. Figure Annual contribution to HVAC savings from top 5 saving technologies by PA, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 29

33 Figure Annual contribution to HVAC incentives for top 5 saving technologies by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC motors/drives savings by PA, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 30

34 Figure Annual contribution to HVAC motors/drives incentives by PA, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 31

35 Figure Annual contribution to HVAC controls savings by PA, electric Figure Annual contribution to HVAC controls incentives by PA, electric DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 32

36 Supporting tables Table 2-12, Table 2-13, and Table 2-14 provide additional statewide details into HVAC technology trends over the past 6 years. Table summary of HVAC technologies installed by accounts, electric Detailed End Use Participating accounts Total Boilers * * * * * * * Chiller Controls ,576 DCV * * * * * * 16 DEEC * 306 Dry Cooler * * * * * * * Fuel Switch * * * * * * 17 Furnace * * * * * * * Heat Pump * 270 HVAC * * * * 128 Insulation * * * * * * 16 Motors/Drives ,850 Other Refrigeration * * * * * * * Steam Traps * * * * * * * Unitary Upstream HVAC * * * ,066 2,411 Water Heaters * * * * * * * Total 1,048 1,350 1,211 1,943 1,841 1,909 9,406 DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 33

37 Table summary of savings by HVAC technologies installed, electric Detailed End Use Savings (kwh) Total Boilers * * * * * * * Chiller 23,780,541 7,330,589 47,095,280 34,532,786 14,299,638 35,257, ,296,644 Controls 30,828,477 57,816,073 34,585,488 32,577,429 21,528,078 21,366, ,701,804 DCV * * * * * * 136,573 DEEC 1,948, ,395 1,585, , ,111 * 5,162,940 Dry Cooler * * * * * * * Fuel Switch * * * * * * 5,164,006 Furnace * * * * * * * Heat Pump 521, ,104 1,512, , ,752 * 4,712,701 HVAC * * * 8,534, ,080 * 9,228,934 Insulation * * * * * * 6,561 Motors/Drives 25,389,119 42,205,146 32,129,230 40,814,439 42,594,355 35,660, ,793,268 Other 4,154,267 24,487,748 2,871,399 5,935,384 7,952,732 10,639,504 56,041,033 Refrigeration * * * * * * * Steam Traps * * * * * * * Unitary 3,949,141 1,838, ,505 2,416, , ,703 9,893,248 Upstream HVAC * * * 3,561,171 11,690,052 9,366,940 25,670,455 Water Heaters * * * * * * * Total 90,571, ,411, ,597, ,794, ,278, ,444, ,854,454 DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 34

38 Table summary of incentives by HVAC technologies installed, electric Detailed End Use Incentives Total Boilers * * * * * * * Chiller $3,779,341 $1,952,355 $8,919,914 $8,305,168 $2,998,397 $7,420,505 $33,375,679 Controls $4,959,526 $11,679,648 $8,051,606 $7,633,795 $4,640,858 $4,852,410 $41,817,843 DCV * * * * * * $53,355 DEEC $128,371 $53,338 $114,929 $25,900 $26,455 * $361,169 Dry Cooler * * * * * * * Fuel Switch * * * * * * $2,840,172 Furnace * * * * * * * Heat Pump $112,609 $230,546 $292,159 $232,625 $175,044 * $1,090,411 HVAC * * * $2,013,847 $242,767 * $2,262,833 Insulation * * * * * * $10,762 Motors/Drives $3,320,659 $4,615,176 $6,329,302 $6,504,742 $6,513,491 $5,487,387 $32,770,758 Other $950,918 $4,227,617 $809,397 $939,765 $2,402,897 $1,422,790 $10,753,383 Refrigeration * * * * * * * Steam Traps * * * * * * * Unitary $1,195,892 $670,252 $477,676 $815,095 $141,103 $57,973 $3,357,990 Upstream HVAC * * * $1,487,328 $2,960,945 $3,433,412 $8,079,095 Water Heaters * * * * * * * Total $14,447,316 $23,428,932 $24,994,983 $27,958,263 $20,101,957 $22,674,476 $137,225,582 DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 35

39 3 GAS ANALYSIS Project-level analysis Table 3-1 summarizes the 2016 gas end use information as presented in the 2016 Comprehensive C&I Customer Profile report. As in 2015, HVAC projects are the single largest source of gas savings in 2016 and second to hot water in terms of number of total projects completed. In the following analysis, all tracking data is restricted to reflect HVAC-only impacts on number of projects, number of participating accounts, amount of therm savings, and incentives paid. Table summary of broad end uses installed, gas Broad end uses 2016 projects 2016 population savings (therms) 2016 total incentives % of 2016 projects % of 2016 savings 2016 contribution ratio Building Shell 174 1,270,019 $4,151, % 8.8% 2.02 Building Systems * * * * * * Comprehensive Design 56 1,899,765 $3,261, % 13.2% 9.38 Food Service ,352 $288, % 0.6% 0.15 Hot Water 1,171 1,657,020 $2,725, % 11.5% 0.39 HVAC 1,139 4,609,288 $9,344, % 32.0% 1.12 Other * * * * * * Process 233 3,039,927 $4,625, % 21.1% 3.61 Upstream Food Service * * * * * * Upstream Hot Water 1,014 1,407,883 $3,795, % 9.8% 0.38 Total 2,945 12,567,371 $24,397,128 *A project is the unique combination of fuel, PA, account ID, and project ID ** Total rows will decrease slightly due to suppression rules Figure 3-1. shows historic summary information for gas HVAC projects: The total number of annual HVAC projects has been steadily decreasing since 2011, with the exception of a spike in Savings have, overall, also been decreasing as the total number of annual projects has decreased. However, there have been recovery years during which HVAC savings have increased. The largest contributing factor to this outcome is very large projects that are unlikely to repeat or occur consistently over time. As the number of annual projects and savings decreased, there was a corresponding decrease in annual incentives spent on HVAC projects and an increase in $/therm saved, suggesting that HVAC savings are becoming costlier to achieve. There are many possible non-data causes for this trend. Two hypotheses are: - The limited scope of high-efficiency gas HVAC offerings may make it difficult to achieve savings, and it may be growing costlier to encourage participation over time. Changes in building codes also impact annual savings achieved. - There may be an incongruity between customer needs and the current HVAC program offering. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 36

40 Figure summary of HVAC activity, gas DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 37

41 Table 3-2 provides a numeric summary of the data illustrated in Figure Table summary of statewide HVAC activity, gas Year Projects Savings (therms) Incentives Incentive per therm saved ,604 6,821,391 $ 12,510,712 $ ,289 7,734,435 $ 12,002,465 $ ,670 5,869,936 $ 10,797,031 $ ,226 6,505,454 $ 11,787,981 $ ,154 4,688,406 $ 7,974,020 $ ,139 4,609,288 $ 9,344,847 $ 2.03 Total 5,339 24,798,231 $ 42,561,497 $ Project-level track summary Table 3-3 shows the breakdown of 2016 gas HVAC projects by program. Overall, two-thirds of projects are installed under the prescriptive program, but 86% of savings are achieved by custom projects. National Grid and Liberty installed the largest shares of custom projects, both with 40%. Per custom project, the average savings achieved by National Grid (8,935 therms) was about half that achieved by both Columbia (15,460 therms) and Eversource (14,408 therms), suggesting that National Grid has installed a larger share of relatively small custom projects. Table HVAC tracking statistics by PA and track, gas Custom Prescriptive PA Savings % % Savings % % Projects Projects (therms) Projects Savings (therms) Projects Savings Columbia 72 1,113,128 26% 84% ,612 74% 16% Eversource ,322 21% 83% ,889 79% 17% National Grid 235 2,099,768 40% 88% ,246 60% 12% Small Gas PAs ,810 27% 80% 40 41,513 73% 20% Berkshire 15 77,254 27% 82% 40 17,282 73% 18% Liberty * 86,769 40% 83% * 18,218 60% 17% Unitil * 4,787 21% 44% * 6,013 79% 56% Total 362 3,958,028 33% 86% ,260 67% 14% * Counts represent unique combinations of account, track, and end use. May exceed the number of projects from end use, and may not equal number of projects from project class table. DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 38

42 Figure 3-2 shows the historical trends in the number of annual HVAC projects falling into each program by PA: The overall source of projects is different for the small and large gas PAs, with the smaller PAs showing more engagement in their prescriptive programs than the large PAs. Custom projects have a substantially greater savings impact than prescriptive projects. National Grid shows a clearly increasing share of custom projects from 2011 to The other large PAs install a comparable share overall, but are more variable year over year. Figure trends in custom and prescriptive HVAC projects, gas DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 39

43 Figure 3-3 shows the trends in savings from each program over time. Across all the PAs, custom projects tend to be the primary source of savings. Figure trends in custom and prescriptive HVAC savings, gas Project-level class summary Table 3-4 summarizes 2016 HVAC projects broken out by initiative, or class. While the number of projects is fairly evenly spread between the new construction and retrofit initiatives, retrofit was the primary source of HVAC savings in 2016 (93% of retrofit savings and 64% of new construction savings are from the custom track). DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 40

44 Table HVAC summary statistics by PA and class, gas New Construction Retrofit PA Savings % % Savings % % Projects Projects (therms) Projects Savings (therms) Projects Savings Columbia ,206 51% 14% 141 1,143,534 49% 86% Eversource ,679 37% 18% ,532 63% 82% National Grid ,813 40% 31% 366 1,645,201 60% 69% Small Gas PAs 33 38,967 54% 19% ,356 46% 81% Berkshire 33 22,265 54% 24% 28 72,271 46% 76% Liberty * 5,934 33% 6% * 99,053 67% 94% Unitil * 10,768 92% 100% * 32 8% 0% Total 498 1,084,665 43% 24% 656 3,524,623 57% 76% * Counts represent unique combinations of account, class, and end use. May exceed the number of projects, and may not equal number of projects from project track table. Figure 3-4 shows the historical proportional breakdown of projects by PA and initiative. Eversource engages in a substantially larger share of retrofit projects than the other PAs, while Unitil has steadily increased its share of new construction projects since Figure 3-5 presents clearer trends about which initiatives are driving annual savings: Berkshire is more variable than the other PAs, though new construction savings have been increasing over the past 6 years. Despite having a large number of new construction projects, Columbia s new construction savings are relatively small each year. This trend also exists for National Grid, though not to the same extent. Eversource derives savings primarily from its retrofit program. This source of savings has been increasingly prevalent since 2013, although less so in DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 41

45 Figure trends in HVAC new construction and retrofit projects, gas DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 42

46 Figure trends in HVAC new construction and retrofit savings, gas DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 43

47 3.1.2 Population-level analysis General population To provide a more holistic view of the role HVAC plays in achieving annual results, this section discusses participating HVAC accounts in more depth. This includes a look into annual billing data and at the contribution of HVAC installations toward decreasing annual usage. Note that this view is slightly more restricted than the project-level view, as it is possible for a single account to participate in multiple HVAC projects over the course of a single year. Figure 3-6 summarizes the statewide historic HVAC participation rate and population savings achieved since Participation rates have steadily decreased since 2011, with the exception of a spike in On average, annual savings achieved have been decreasing steadily, though completion of very large projects in 2012 resulted in a yearover-year increase in savings. Figure statewide HVAC participation rate and population savings achieved, gas DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 44

48 Figure 3-7 provides details about PA-specific participation rates since The variation within and across PAs is substantial. On average, Eversource, National Grid, and Unitil have had decreasing participation rates since This matches the overall statewide trend. Columbia, Berkshire, and Liberty show generally increasing participation rates, which help balance out the decreasing rates from the other PAs, though not enough to fully reverse the decreasing trend over time. However, 2016 had the lowest participation rate for Liberty. Figure HVAC account participation rates, gas (includes unlinked tracking data) DNV GL February 9, 2018 Page 45