Cheltenham School District Enrollment Projections

Transcription

1 Chelteham School District Erollmet Projectios

2

3 Chelteham School District Erollmet Projectios Prepared By The Motgomery Couty Plaig Commissio November, 2016

4 Board of School Directors William Eglad, Presidet Stephaie H. Gray, Vice Presidet David L. Cohe Joel I. Fishbei Julie Haywood Bria Malloy Jea McWilliams Napoleo Nelso David M. Rackow Superitedet Dr. Wager Marseille

5 Table of Cotets Itroductio... 1 Summary of Key Fidigs... 3 School District Characteristics Housig Activity Populatio... 5 Birth Patters... 7 School District Erollmet... 9 Alterative School Erollmet Impacts of Housig o Erollmet Housig Uits Built Housig Uits Proposed Housig Sales District Erollmet Projectios Cohort Progressio Model Projected Erollmet Summaries Idicators of Projectio Chage School Profiles... 37

6 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Itroductio School districts ca oly pla for their future if they have some idea of what that future will etail. The umber of studets that will eed to be served by district facilities is the key variable that must be uderstood i order to make prudet decisios. The housig market has improved over the last three years, ad developmet proposals are o the rise agai. Mature suburbs like Chelteham are seeig reewed developer iterest. Deser housig types such as multifamily ad towhomes are also beig sought i additio to the still domiat sigle family detached homes i Chelteham. Some proposals or iterest i sites that may have bee suspeded after the housig bubble burst ad the recessio hit are rampig up agai ad may come to fruitio i the future. This report gives a overview of the populatio ad housig characteristics withi the Chelteham School District (CSD) i order to establish the coditios that have formed the most recet erollmet treds. Future erollmets will deped largely upo the followig factors: Recet ad future births Housig costructio Moves i ad out of the school district Private, charter, home, ad cyber school growth The followig study employs the use of a Cohort Progressio Model to accout for the above factors ad form projectios for each grade level over the ext te years. No model is perfect whe it comes to predictig the future, but give the right data, a accurate projectio for the ext five years is expected. Projectios should ot be cosidered a fial product with the completio of the model. Additioal data ad aalysis, icludig housig ad populatio forecasts, characteristics of households by housig types, geographic mobility by age cohorts, ad housig sales activity, are also preseted i this study to provide a useful cotext with the projectios. These importat data poits should be reviewed every year to determie if uaticipated activity is occurrig ad how that might ifluece the projectios ad actual erollmets dow the lie. 1

7 ASTON E D R ASH INGTO W N LN EDA C R D R FRO NT ST ENTRAL C VE A ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 1: District School Locatios ad Boudary Areas MT CARMEL AVE GLENSIDE AVE RICES MILL RD Jekitow TOWNSHIP LINE RD Abigto COTTMAN AVE Sprigfield CHURCH RD LIMEKILN PIKE Gleside ES 309 CHELTENHAM AVE GREENWOOD AVE Wycote ES Chelteham HS LIMEKILN PIKE Cedarbrook MS OGONTZ AVE Chelteham Myers ES Elkis Park School ASHBOURNE RD NEW SECOND ST ASHMEAD RD Chelteham ES TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia Chelteham ES Myers ES Wycote ES Gleside ES Miles 2

8 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Summary of Key Fidigs The geeral tred i future erollmets for the Chelteham School District calls for a icrease of over 2% i the ext te years, but that could climb as high as 8.5% if birth activity icrease ad all prospective developmet comes to fruitio. Birth activity should icrease due to more adults agig ito the most popular child-bearig years. The followig factors are determiig this forecast: Births i the CSD have bee low i recet years with oe exceptio, the year. A more robust kidergarte class may result i the school year as a result, but precedig years are ot expected to chage substatially i size. Births should begi risig over the ext five years, which will affect the secod half of this study period. As the Milleial geeratio moves ito child-bearig years, the couty ad towship will see a icrease i the age cohort of year old females through Private school erollmet from studets livig i the district has decreased from 10 years ago, but remaied relatively stable i the last 5. Several properties have bee idetified as supportig potetial residetial costructio over the ext te years. Oly a couple are cosidered very likely for the ear term, but eve if oly these are developed, the impact o school erollmet will outpace the recet tred level of costructio. Other properties may also evetually be developed, ad they would brig more growth. Existig multifamily buildigs have bee providig more studets over the last five years ad will cotiue to provide more studets. The retal market is hot ad provides a lower barrier of etry ito a quality school district. Residetial sales activity has goe up over the last five years i the district but still falls just below levels see before the recessio. More public school studets are resultig from this turover ad a icrease i sales will likely brig youger households ito the area. Projectios A cohort progressio model has bee prepared ad preseted as three scearios, or optios. The first, Optio 1, is really a base sceario usig existig treds ad estimated birth activity to determie where erollmet is headed. The secod, Optio 2, aticipates a icrease i birth activity that will result i larger kidergarte classes over the secod half of the study period (years 6 through 10). The third, Optio 3, icludes icreased birth activity ad addresses future residetial developmet that will icrease erollmet through the creatio of more households. This study recommeds that Optio 3 is the most likely future regardig erollmets, but that it ultimately depeds o the outcome of potetial developmet projects. Erollmet has bee variably growig over the last decade, but mild icreases i costructio, birth activity, housig sales, ad studets comig out of deser residetial developmets will expad that growth over the ext five years. We expect growth to cotiue over the secod five year period as well, although the rate will slow dow. Each of the district s four grade distributios will grow, but i very differet maers. Middle levels will grow most durig the first five years, while the elemetary ad high school level will see its growth occur durig the secod five years. The elemetary school will actually declie over the ext few years before ew housig brigs it back up to curret levels. This is due to the upcomig departures of some historically high class sizes ad smaller kidergarte classes replacig them. However, by 2020, ew costructio ad greater birth activity will spur growth of aroud 100 studets durig the ext six years. The middle school ad high school levels are goig to experiece variable growth over the ext te years with all grade levels (5-12) experiecig et positive growth by The amout of housig costructio will also ifluece erollmet at these levels although the effect will be lesser tha at the elemetary school due to fewer actual grades ad the potetial for youger families i ewer uits. 3

9 School District Characteristics Part 1

10 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT School District Characteristics Populatio Birth Patters School District Erollmet Alterative School Erollmet Populatio The geeral populatio withi the Chelteham School District declied by 80 residets from 2000 to This reversed the growth tred from the prior decade where the Towship saw a gai of almost 2,000 people. Little ew developmet ad the housig market bubble prior to the recessio helped to accout for the stagatio alog with a decrease i average household size for the towship. Treds are chagig for ier suburbs like Chelteham i Motgomery Couty. Regioal projectios are callig for the populatio to cotiue growig at a rate of 1.9% over the curret decade through Curret populatio estimates from the Cesus Bureau idicate that the populatio is o track to reach its projectio for The geeral expectatio for the immediate future is for oly slight growth as households cotiue to chur, but whe ew costructio takes place over the ext five years it should provide a further boost. However, it is importat to recogize that populatio totals do ot ecessarily reflect chages i the umbers of school-age childre or public school erollmet figures. While the populatio will grow withi the district, shifts i the age cohorts withi that populatio ca have distict effects o the umbers of school age childre i the future. FIGURE 2: Populatio of Chelteham School District, ,000 37,500 37,000 36,500 36,000 35,500 35,000 34,500 34,000 33, (projected) Source: U.S. Cesus Bureau, except 2020 Projectios (DVRPC ad MCPC) 5

11 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 3: Populatio s, (Forecasted) Chage Percet Chage Percet Chage Percet Chage Percet CSD 34, % 36,875 1, % 36, % 37, % Motgomery Couty 678,111 34, % 748,987 70, % 799,874 50, % 841,067 41, % Source: U.S. Cesus Bureau, except 2020 Forecasts (DVRPC ad MCPC) Age Cohorts ad School Age Childre Age data from the last three deceial cesuses reveal patters i how the demographics of the Chelteham School District have chaged, but ote that these figures iclude all childre, ot just public school studets. The cohort that best represets school age childre is the 5-17 year old group. This cohort decreased by almost 14% over the last decade, which roughly correspods to a similar rate of declie for the District s public school erollmet over that time. The youger cohort, 0-4 year olds (pre-school age), icreased from 2000 to This FIGURE 4: Age Cohorts, Chelteham School District, Age Cohort Chage sapshot supports the recet growth experieced by the District. The adult age cohorts show that the populatio aged years old has waed somewhat sice large growth i the 1990 s. However, there was sigificat growth of the year old populatio ad this age group alog with the year old group roughly accout for the baby boomers, which is why places like the Chelteham District ad Motgomery Couty are said to be home to a agig populatio. These people may still have childre i their households or have see them move out i recet Chage Chage 0-4 2, , , , ,517 1,379 5, , , ,709 1, , , , ,406 1,726 5, ,189-1, , ,493 1,730 5, , , ,972 1, , , , ad over 3, , , years. The effect is that there may be fewer childre per household as these people age, but that effect will also be coutered by seiors movig to other types of housig or dowsizig, providig opportuities for youger families to move i. The remaiig ages betwee the previously metioed cohorts, the year old populatio, also grew over the last decade as a whole. However, it was the lowest cohort rage, 18-24, that saw the oly actual icrease i umber from their place the decade prior. It should be oted that the locatio of a umber of istitutios of higher educatio could skew this cohort group s populatio umber withi Chelteham Towship. Overall, these people are of child-bearig age ad a cotiued icrease may herald a period of higher birth activity, which ca ultimately result i more studets erollig for school six years later. This shiftig of age cohorts over time is oly oe part of the picture whe it comes to explaiig ad predictig what will happe with school erollmet, but it is a good place to start whe cosiderig why erollmets cycle up ad dow over time. Source: U.S. Cesus Bureau 6

12 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT School District Characteristics Populatio Birth Patters School District Erollmet Alterative School Erollmet Birth Patters The umber of births i a area is a critical compoet to projectig future erollmet i a school district. While some families will migrate over time, births provide a begiig idicator of the potetial size of future kidergarte classes. This relatioship will be detailed i the cohort progressio model (p. 25), but it is importat to ote that birth data ca give a preview of what will happe with eterig studets over the first five years of the projectio period. Also ote that aual birth totals are aliged to match the school caledar year (September August) i order to make the most accurate correlatios to future kidergarte classes. The tred for live births sice 2000 i the Chelteham School District shows that births have bee geerally lower over the last six years as opposed to the previous ie. With the exceptio of the ad year, birth totals have hovered aroud 330 goig back to The lower birth activity has already had some affect o recet kidergarte grade sizes ad may cotiue to ifluece the level of the yougest ew studets startig school i the District, but that bump should boost the kidergarte class size. This tred of birth activity has ru somewhat similar to what has bee observed i most other districts ad the couty i geeral. Coutywide, birth totals bega decliig i 2009 ad dropped each year sice the util fially goig up agai i The coutywide dowtur may be due i some part to the dowtur i the ecoomy startig with the Great Recessio i Logically, it would make sese for some to defer or delay decisios to have childre based o ecoomic ucertaity i oe s life. Some studies have looked at atioal populatio bases, FIGURE 5: Number of Live Births i Chelteham SD by School Caledar Year (Sept.-Aug.) Source: Pesylvaia Departmet of Health 7

13 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS both the Uited States ad globally, ad determied that overall fertility rates do declie with dowturs i the ecoomy. Lookig ahead, there may be aother more tagible factor that ca be attributed to expected chages i birth patters the populatio of child-bearig age wome. Accordig to the Pesylvaia Departmet of Health, birth activity is at its highest whe potetial mothers are betwee the ages of Figure 7 idetifies age cohorts for females of childbearig age i Chelteham. The populatio of wome i that age group icreased from 2,173 i 2000 to 2,188 i Additioally, females withi the age groups icreased by 400 i Lookig out to 2020, the bubble i the youger FIGURE 6: Number of Live Births i CSD by School Caledar Year (Sept.-Aug.) School Year CSD Source: Pesylvaia Departmet of Health cohorts, sometimes kow as milleials will be agig ito higher fertility rates. This data suggests that o a purely demographic basis, births should begi tredig upwards agai. Of course, the actual year olds livig i Chelteham at the time of the data collectio are goig through a extreme period of flux as may of them graduate high school ad go to college, or otherwise move out of their parets homes. I additio, this cohort may be more represeted i Chelteham, temporarily, due to the locatio of a umber of uiversities withi its borders. May thigs may happe to prevet them from becomig a year old residet of Chelteham. However, the bubbles i the so-called baby boomers ad milleials also exist at the couty ad regioal levels. The geeral icrease i people of that age FIGURE 7: Females of Child-Bearig Age i CSD, 2000 ad 2010 Age Cohort 2000 Females 2010 Females ,703 1, ,393 2, ,297 1, , ,321 1, ,224 1,138 Source: U.S. Cesus Bureau will still likely impact the umber of year olds i Chelteham eve if they are ot the same residets that lived there as year olds. Birth Rates Birth rates are a differet statistic tha live births. A icrease or decrease i actual births could be explaied by cocurret growth or declie i the populatio base, but birth rates average out the umber of live births per 1,000 persos i a area. The statistics i Figure 8 cofirm that birth rate activity i the Chelteham School District has bee lower sice 2006, although it has typically bee well below the coutywide rate i all respects. FIGURE 8: Birth Rates (Births Per 1,000 Populatio) i CSD by Caledar Year (Ja.-Dec.) Caledar Year CSD Motgomery Couty Sources: Pesylvaia Departmet of Health, U.S. Cesus Bureau 8

14 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT School District Characteristics Populatio Birth Patters School District Erollmet Alterative School Erollmet School District Erollmet District erollmet had declied by early 900 studets over the decade before the school year which is whe erollmet started to rise agai. Erollmet sice the has rise cosistetly. This patter reflects a recet history of variable growth i commuities that have bee mature or mostly built out for some time, yet still see occasioal redevelopmet projects ad sporadic ifill. However, the growth experieced i the most recet school year, 83 studets i , costitutes oe of the largest gais over the last te years. The questio to be aswered by this study is whether erollmet will cotiue to moderately icrease, or is a greater tred of growth just gettig uderway. The first place to look for that aswer comes from breakig dow the figures by geeral school levels as idicated i Figure 9. The elemetary school level (grades K-4) show cosistet growth over the last te years, with the last year showig a declie of 3 studets. However, the juior high ad seior high school levels show a differet patter. The juior high levels (5-6 ad 7-8) have bee highly variable the last te years but tredig upwards while the high school level (9-12) has geerally declied over the same period. The cocurret icreases i the yougest grades with smaller levels still at the upper grades is a idicatio that overall growth i erollmet should cotiue i the ear term as the larger classes progress through the system. Uless other factors such as greater birth activity make a impact, the elemetary classes may stabilize while juior high ad seior high levels cotiue to grow as those existig larger class sizes eter the upper grade levels. FIGURE 9: School District Erollmet by Grade Divisios, ,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, K Source: Chelteham School District (erollmet as of October 1 each year) 9

15 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 10: District Erollmet by Divisio, Year K ,365 Number Chage from Previous Year Percet Chage from Previous Year , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Grade K-4 Grade 5-6 Grade 7-8 Grade , ,555 1, ,480 1, ,458 1, ,479 1, ,469 1, ,448 1, ,473 1, ,466 1, ,366 1, ,438 Source: Chelteham School District (erollmet as of October 1 each year) FIGURE 11: District Erollmet by Grade, Year K Source: Chelteham School District (erollmet as of October 1 each year) 10

16 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT School District Characteristics Populatio Birth Patters School District Erollmet Other School Erollmet Other School Erollmet Potetial alterative schoolig choices iclude private schools, charter schools, ad homeschoolig. Erollmet i these schools are eumerated from several data sources ad do ot always have a cosistet historical record. Further cofusig matters is that charter schools are also cosidered public schools. Private Schools The U.S. Cesus Bureau ad its America Commuity Survey (ACS) provides some comprehesive data o public versus private school erollmet, which is probably the most straightforward assessmet of treds. However, these figures are estimates with a margi of error ad they rely upo the accuracy of idividuals fillig out questioaires. Figure 12 shows the available data that ca be compared from the Cesus ad ACS. The data idicates that recet private school erollmet is well below what it was back i A iterim measure take from shows that a majority of the declie was see durig the decade before. These figures must be take with reservatio due to the potetial margi of error ivolved with the ACS. Public school figures take from the ACS durig FIGURE 12: Private School Erollmet Accordig to U.S. Cesus Bureau Year Private School Studets * * 671 Dataset Cesus 2000, Summary File 3 ACS, 5 Year Es mates, ACS, 5 Year Es mates, * 5 Year Estimates from the ACS are a average of 5 years worth of samplig data these times show a disparity betwee the umbers ad real erollmet data. It is likely that some declie occurred betwee the last half of 00 decade ad recet years. It is logical to thik that the dowtur i the ecoomy ad cosolidatios withi the Catholic churches may have combied to ifluece the declie. The tred i other comparable districts has bee for fewer private school studets over the decade. The Chelteham School District also keeps data o residets that atted private school through its moitorig of district bus records, which icludes public ad private school studets. However, the data is icomplete as it oly recogizes studets who are usig the district s public buses. The available bus data, as show i Figure 13, goes back to the school year. This data suggests that private school erollmet has icreased slightly i recet years. A improvig ecoomy ad growig populatio could accout for some of this growth. Also, the uexpected closig of Cedarbrook Middle School ad subsequet grade shiftig may have had a affect o private school erollmet. Assessig the limitatios of both data sources leads to the coclusio that the Chelteham District may FIGURE 13: Private School Erollmet Accordig to CSD Bus Records* School Year Private School Studets Source: Chelteham School District Bus Records * Oly recogizes private school studets that opt for CSD bus trasportatio. 11

17 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ot be i a radical state of chage with regards to private school attedace. However, it does appear to be less strog tha it was te years ago prior to the ecoomic ad housig market troubles. The District may see private school umbers climb a little bit i the comig years if the ecoomy cotiues to improve, but the expected impact o public school attedace is accouted for by the most recet treds. Charter Schools Charter schools are still cosidered public i that they usually have free tuitio ad are fuded with public dollars. However, they are idepedetly operated ad studets are ot cosidered i the district erollmet figure. Cyber charter schools have also become a optio for some studets. Cyber charter schools are a form of home-based virtual charter schools. These types of schools are relatively ew optios i the area, first appearig about te years ago. Accordig to the Chelteham School District, there were oly 77 studets livig i the district i that erolled i charter or cyber charter schools. This umber has declied from a peak of 83 studets the prior year. FIGURE 14: Other Alterative Schoolig Optios School Year (Cyber) Charter School Source: Chelteham School District 12

18 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT 13

19 Housig Activity Part 2

20 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Housig Activity Impacts of Housig o Erollmet Housig Uits Built Housig Uits Proposed Housig Sales Impacts of Housig o Erollmet School Age Childre by Housig Type The average umber of school age childre i a residetial uit depeds o the type of uit. MCPC reviews the latest cesus data ad compares it to couty property records as part of its report titled, Characteristics of the Populatio i New ad Existig Housig Uits. The latest report, based o the 2010 Cesus, cotais the average umber of school age childre i sigle family detached, attached (towhomes ad twis), ad multifamily (apartmets or multiple uits i a structure) housig types. The data is also aalyzed i terms of ew ad existig uits. The coutywide results of the study (top of Figure 15) show that a ewly costructed sigle family detached home is over 15 times more likely to cotai a school age child tha multifamily uits. The differece is less stark whe cosiderig oly existig uits, but there are clearly more childre foud i detached uits tha i multifamily ad attached uits. We isolated data from the report to just focus o housig withi the Chelteham School District (bottom of Figure 15). Ufortuately, there were ot eough ew developmets i the Chelteham School District to develop local represetative figures for ay of the housig types. The CSD data shows that existig sigle family detached homes were early just as likely to have school age childre as attached homes. This is differet tha what is observed, o average, i Motgomery Couty. The CSD ad coutywide data for existig multi-family housig differ sigificatly i that Chelteham has a higher ratio of studets i these developmets tha the average couty muicipality. Note that the factors derived i Figure 15 accout for all school age childre, ot just public school studets. The housig adjustmet i Part Three of this study uses a combiatio of coutywide ad local factors to make estimates o the impact of ew costructio for most housig types. Multifamily Housig Aalysis The district s studet records from , , ad were compared to the addresses of all multifamily developmets with 10 or more uits i Chelteham. The results show i Figures 16 FIGURE 15: Average Number of School Age Childre by Housig Uit Type Motgomery Couty Sigle Family Detached Sigle Family A ached Mul family School Age Childre per Household i Exis g Uits School Age Childre per Household i New Uits Chelteham Towship School District Sigle Family Detached Sigle Family A ached Mul family School Age Childre per Household i Exis g Uits School Age Childre per Household i New Uits N/A N/A N/A Source: Motgomery Couty Plaig Commissio & 2010 US Cesus 15

21 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 16: Actual CSD Data for Multifamily Developmets with 10 or More Uits Year Chelteham SD Studets Note: Oly icludes public studets ad ratio is based o uits, ot households. Source: CSD Records ad MCPC aalysis idicate that the umber of public school childre comig from multifamily developmets has bee icreasig sice at least The added studets are essetially all comig from older developmets built before This tred of icreasig public school studets out of existig multifamily buildigs is expected to cotiue beyod curret levels. However, the District is likely to see much lower studet erollmet from ewer multifamily costructio if ad whe it occurs i the future. See Figure 36 o page 35 for a full listig of the properties studied i this aalysis ad their studet/uit rates. Migratio of Households Uits Studet / Uit , , , The coectio betwee ew housig uits ad ew populatio is fairly clear, although it also depeds o the type of uits. The impact of household movemet i ad out of existig housig uits is a less certai coectio, but it is still icorporated ito the cohort progressio model. It would be useful to look at sales data of homes ad come to a uderstadig of what might happe with school age childre where sales activity icreases for oe reaso or aother. Aalysis usig couty housig sales data ad district erollmet records was coducted to idetify public school studets that lived i homes prior to beig sold ad studets that lived i a home after it was sold. The results i Figure 17, show that while the umber of housig uits sold icreased, the et gai i public studets resultig from sales also icreased from FIGURE 17: Impact of Housig Uits Sold o Erollmet Year of Housig Uits Sold Number of Exis g Uits Sold Icomig Studets at Address of Uits Sold Outgoig Studets at Address of Uits Sold Net Chage i Studets from Sales Ac vity Source: CSD Records, MCPC Media Price Sales Reports 2013 to This data supports the geeral belief that as more housig uits tur over, youger families eter the district ad a icrease i school age childre is evetually felt. A set of data from the America Commuity Survey adds aother wrikle to the issue. The ACS offers data o geographic mobility of households ad the age compositio of those households. Figure 18 shows a breakdow of households that have remaied withi the same house as the year prior ad households that have moved withi the last year. This latter group would costitute the characteristics of people who are purchasig homes or movig ito retal uits. The results show that the percetage of school age childre is lower i homes that are occupied by a differet household tha the year before, but the missig compoet is that we do t kow who the ew households are replacig. The more useful piece of this data is foud i the age cohort, who are the most likely to coceive childre. The percet of persos i households that have moved is 20.2%, as opposed to oly 10% i households that have remaied i the same place. A household that has just moved ito a home i the district is more likely to cotai year olds, therefore icreasig the likelihood that ew childre will be bor ito the district. FIGURE 18: Select Age Cohorts i CSD Area Households Related to Geographic Mobility Persos i households that have moved withi the last year Persos i Households Percet of Persos i Households People Age % People Age % Peope Age % People 4, % Persos i households that have remaied i the same house Persos i Households Percet of Persos i Households People Age 1-4 1, % People Age , % People Age , % People 32, % Source: America Commuity Survey, Estimates 16

22 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Housig Activity Impacts of Housig o Erollmet Housig Uits Built Housig Uits Proposed Housig Sales Housig Uits Built Residetial costructio activity i Motgomery Couty hit historic lows sice aroud 2008 after the housig market bubble burst ad the Great Recessio followed. The Chelteham School District was less affected sice it is a largely built out commuity that mostly features redevelopmet ad small ifill projects. Figure 19 shows that sigle family detached costructio has accouted for a egligible amout of ew costructio withi the district i the past te years. The remaiig costructio is spread over a few developmets. I recet years the two developmets to accout for the most uits delivered to the district are the 55 uit multi-family 1600 Church Road ad the 198 uit sigle family attached Reserve at Wygate. If we exclude the age-restricted Samuel A. Gree House developmet i 2011, the last five years of housig costructio i the District shows a average of oly 28 uits per year. Almost all of those uits were ifill costructio of sigle family attached ad multi-family uits. The et impact o school age childre, based o these housig types, averages out to approximately 5 childre per year. This baselie is used to determie what additioal impact will be caused by future developmet should it outpace the previous costructio rates. The map i Figure 21 o the followig page shows the most recet developmets i the Chelteham School District, recogizig all uits built from 2011 through FIGURE 19: Housig Uits Built i the CSD by Housig Type, Sigle Family Detached Sigle Family Attached Multifamily Source: Motgomery Couty Plaig Commissio 17

23 EA STON RD WA SHIN GTO LN CE DAR RD FRO NT ST CEN TRAL E AV ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 20: Housig Uits Built i the CSD, MT CARMEL AVE GLENSIDE AVE RICES MILL RD Jekitow TOWNSHIP LINE RD Abigto COTTMAN AVE Sprigfield CHURCH RD LIMEKILN PIKE Gleside ES 309 CHELTENHAM AVE GREENWOOD AVE Wycote ES Chelteham HS LIMEKILN PIKE Cedarbrook MS OGONTZ AVE Chelteham Myers ES Elkis Park School ASHBOURNE RD NEW SECOND ST ASHMEAD RD Chelteham ES TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia Types of Uits Built SFD SFA MF Myers ES Chelteham ES Wycote ES Gleside ES Miles 18

24 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Housig Activity Impacts of Housig o Erollmet Housig Uits Built Housig Uits Proposed Housig Sales Housig Uits Proposed Give the dimiished amout of costructio i the last three years, it would ot take much ew developmet to surpass the recet tred level ad start to have a effect o erollmet. However, the prospect for ew developmet is ucertai due to the curret status ad expectatios for developable tracts i the district. The chart i Figure 21 shows the level of formal submissio activity i Chelteham. It looks like activity has bee very quiet i recet years with the exceptio of a couple developmet proposals i 2014 ad Those submissios recogize the Ashboure Meadows developmet, the agerestricted Eclave at Kerli Farm, ad Ashboure Estates multi-family proposals. There has bee other activity, icludig plas for multifamily developmet or sigle family detached homes at Laverock Hill ad several other sites that have draw developer iterest but lack formal proposals so far. With assistace from towship staff ad couty plaers, we have idetified the major sites that have received iterest ad have some probability of beig developed i the ext te years. All of them could be cosidered as potetial but oly oe of those developmets could be described as very likely at this time ad the other is curretly uder costructio the Ashboure Meadows ad Wygate II projects respectively. Eve if these were the oly two developmets built i the ext five years, their impact would surpass the tred developmet level ad provide icreased growth i public school erollmet. The map i Figure 22 shows the locatio, status, ad umber of uits for all of the developmets that could potetially be built over the ext te years. Not all are expected to be built. The erollmet projectios i Part 3 iclude oly the very likely projects get built (show i gree). The reality will be somewhere i betwee. Figure 35 o page 33 further details the potetial developmets alog with a estimated timelie ad expected impact i terms of additioal public school studets. FIGURE 21: Housig Uits Formally Proposed i the CSD by Housig Type, Sigle Family Detached Sigle Family Attached Multifamily Source: Motgomery Couty Plaig Commissio 19

25 EA STON RD WA SHIN GTO LN CE DAR RD FRO NT ST CEN TRAL E AV ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 22: Potetial Housig Developmets Sprigfield MT CARMEL AVE GLENSIDE AVE Laverock Hill Recet zoig approval greelights developer to build. However, pla evolvig due to Sprigfield TWP ot approvig ecessary zoig chages o their respective part of the parcel. CHURCH RD LIMEKILN PIKE Gleside ES 309 Wygate II 28 SFA Will be completed i 2017, part of a existig developmet. CHELTENHAM AVE RICES MILL RD GREENWOOD AVE Ashboure Estates A proposal for 146 uits, possibly Wycote age restricted. However, ES No EDU approval due to previous moratorium. Chelteham HS LIMEKILN PIKE OGONTZ AVE Jekitow Cedarbrook MS TOWNSHIP LINE RD Lyewood Hall O the market, rumored to be cosidered for towhouse developmet. Historic preservatio cocers regardig home ad fece. Chelteham Abigto Domiica Retreat O the market, ca have up to 250 uits due to a recet rezoig. Myers ES Elkis Park School ASHBOURNE RD NEW SECOND ST Ashboure Meadows 90 SFD + 76 SFA = 166 Uits EDU s have bee approved for this proposal but costructio has ot begu yet. ASHMEAD RD COTTMAN AVE Chelteham ES Eclave at Kerli Farm Proposal for 79 age-restricted uits, but o EDU s grated yet. TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia Chelteham ES Myers ES Wycote ES Gleside ES Miles 20

26 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Housig Activity Impacts of Housig o Erollmet Housig Uits Built Housig Uits Proposed Housig Sales Housig Sales Market-rate housig sales activity i the Chelteham School District has followed a patter of brisk sales growth ulike coutywide sales activity which has grow more modestly. The umber of uits sold peaked at very high levels i the early to mid 2000s before the housig boom crashed ad the ecoomy etered a recessio. Sales levels cotiually declied to historically low levels through Durig this collapse, home values flatteed out ad ofte depreciated as fiacial markets tighteed up for potetial buyers. The last four years have show the cotiual recovery of the District with the umber of existig uit sales growig by 72% from 2011 to The couty also bega to recover i this time period, but at a slower rate of 32%. At the couty levels, these figures still pale i compariso to earlier i the decade, but Chelteham District is experiecig sales activity close to pre-recessio levels. However, it is ulikely that the market returs to that activity i the foreseeable future. The impact of a declie i sales is that it ca slow dow migratio activity i a area that features a majority of its housig stock as ower-occupied housig. Greater sales activity provides for a churig of households that should result i a greater umber of school age childre as well as childbearig age wome. The recet recovery, should it cotiue, could help sustai higher birth levels i the future. FIGURE 23: Existig Housig Uits Sold i the CSD, Source: Motgomery Couty Plaig Commissio 21

27 ASTON E D R ASH INGT W ON N L AR ED C RD ONT FR T S CEN TRAL AVE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 24: Existig Housig Uits Sold i the CSD, MT CARMEL AVE GLENSIDE AVE RICES MILL RD Jekitow TOWNSHIP LINE RD Abigto COTTMAN AVE Sprigfield CHURCH RD LIMEKILN PIKE Gleside ES 309 CHELTENHAM AVE GREENWOOD AVE Wycote ES Chelteham HS LIMEKILN PIKE Cedarbrook MS OGONTZ AVE Chelteham Myers ES Elkis Park School ASHBOURNE RD NEW SECOND ST ASHMEAD RD Chelteham ES TOOKANY CREEK PKWY Philadelphia Miles 22

28 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT 23

29 District Erollmet Projectios Part 3

30 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT District Erollmet Projectios Cohort Progressio Model Projected Erollmet Summaries Idicators of Projectio Chage Cohort Progressio Model The method used i this study to calculate projectios for each grade level is kow as the Cohort Progressio Model, which is also referred to as Cohort Survival i some applicatios. This is a fairly commo approach ad oe used by the state ad other districts i formulatig projectios. However, it should always be used with cautio ad preseted i cotext with the other variables offered i this report. I some districts there will be cause for adjustmets to the model based o chagig factors i populatio growth or migratio. The ature of the model allows it to itegrate tred activity across a umber of variables. Birth rates have the most obvious impacts i the model, but the chages that take place accout for treds i populatio migratio, housig costructio, sales, ad alterative schoolig choices, such as private, charter, or homeschoolig opportuities. The model is fairly straightforward i its method. It tracks each class i a give year ad measures the chage i that class from oe year to the ext. The it applies a average of chages over a specified time period to determie the percetage of a give grade likely to progress to the ext grade i future years. A six year average was used for the Chelteham School District, sice it would accout for erollmet patters from the 2010 through 2016 school years. Figure 25 displays all of the progressio rates for each grade trasitio from the last five school years. The average is calculated to arrive at a basic tred that will be applied for each projected year. Ay progressio rate that is greater tha 1.0 idicates that a class icreased i size from oe year to the ext as it also moved up a grade level. Progressio rates that are lower tha 1.0 idicate that a class decreased i size. For example, the seveth grade class of the 2011 school year decreased i size whe it etered the eighth grade i 2012 at a rate of Usig actual erollmet figures, the class wet from 390 to 386 studets durig that period. The followig year i 2013, it etered the ith grade ad this time it icreased at a rate of 1.104, gaiig 40 studets. I 2014, it etered the teth grade ad decreased agai at a rate of 0.911, losig 38 studets by the erollmet figures. Lookig at the whole rage of progressio rates (Figure 25), most of the rates are above 1.0 at the elemetary school level. Half of the average rates above the elemetary level represet a icrease. The K-1 average rate is the highest rate at the elemetary level, which is ofte the case whe some parets opt for opublic kidergarte programs before eterig the public system. After ith grade, classes ted to drop but this is ot uusual, as it is possible some studets will drop out of school ad fewer families may be likely to chage districts with childre ear the ed of their secodary educatio. CSD is uique i its dramatic gais see i the 8-9 trasitio, followed by a equivalet drop i the 9-10 trasitio. Birth-to-Kidergarte Ratio The projectio of future erollmets i the model requires that we apply the treds i progressio rates to future classes as they go from oe grade to the ext. However, the kidergarte class for each year does ot have a erollmet figure for its prior year sice those childre would be i preschool or home care outside of the district system. Therefore, we must use live birth data to idetify ratios of births to kidergarte. The birth data comes from a give past year ad is the applied to the kidergarte class that would follow six years later i order to capture the same childre at each ed of the ratio. For istace, a birth-to-kidergarte ratio for the school year uses kidergarte erollmet i 2015 as the umerator ad divides it by the birth data from to form the rate (1.030) show i Figure 25. The ratios of births to kidergarte are typically lower tha the yearly grade progressio rates. Some will go straight ito a opublic school, ad others may move away before etry ito kidergarte. The 25

31 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 25: Grade Progressio Rates Over the Last Six Years School Year Birth-K* K Average** * The birth-to-kidergarte ratio uses birth data six years prior to the idicated school year, thus drawig the relatioship betwee childre bor ad the year they would actually eter kidergarte. ** Averages are geerated by removig the lowest ad highest outlier withi each grade group to cotrol for aomalies. averagig out of the ratios gives us the best approximatio of the et result of all birth ad migratio activity i the district, but clearly there is room for variatio i ay sigular istace. Oe beeficial aspect of a birth-to-kidergarte ratio is that it allows the model to itegrate real data ito the first half of the projectio period. I other words, projectios of kidergarte classes for the first four years, through the 2020 school year, ca accout for real chages i birth patters that have occurred from 2010 to The dowside is that a estimated birth figure must be used for ay projectio beyod the 2020 school year. Projectio Periods Due to the distictio betwee usig real birth data ad the eed to estimate beyod four years, erollmet projectios are divided ito two periods. The primary period covers the first five school years from 2017 to 2021, ad the secodary period covers the ext five school years from 2022 to There is a higher degree of accuracy expected durig the primary period tha i the secodary period. Recet treds are more likely to cotiue i the short term before outside factors ca ifluece a chage i patters, but the use of the birth data gives a more depedable start to projectig the size of kidergarte classes i the future. Estimated Births The projectio of kidergarte classes after 2020 requires the use of estimated birth figures for the ext six years. A simple approach to estimate these births is to use a average of the most recet birth figures ad exted it through the ed of the projectio period. I the Chelteham School District, the average umber of births over the last five years of full data available was 343. This is the figure used to formulate the te year district projectios i Optio 1 o the followig page. The icreasig umbers of child-bearig age females alog with a improvig ecoomy could ultimately have a positive effect o birth totals i the future. Optio 2 allows for a sceario where births do cotiue to icrease, but recogizes that this impact will ot begi to have a impact util at least five years from ow. Housig Adjustmet The models for Optios 1 ad 2 are based o recet activity, icludig housig costructio. As discussed o pages 15-16, costructio over the last six years has resulted i a estimated 5 ew school age childre per year. A review of proposed developmet o pages idicates that developmet over the ext te years is expected to exceed this pace. Optio 3 o the followig pages icludes adjustmets to the model to accout for the additioal costructio that will brig more school childre ito the public school system. Optio 3 is iteded to cover the rage of potetial developmet that is most likely to come to fruitio withi the ext te years. The housig adjustmet calculatios i Optio 3 also recogize that ot all school age childre atted public school, ad additioal ifill developmet ad ew proposals will cotiue alogside the major projects accouted for i the adjustmet. See page 33 for more details o the adjustmets made. 26

32 CHELTENHAM SCHOOL DISTRICT Projected Erollmets Figures 26, 27, ad 28 offer three variatios of grade by grade projectios over the ext te years. The first two scearios are progressios with variatios i birth rates, the first sceario projects a average birth rate of the first half i the secod half of the projectio while the secod adds a steady icrease i births each year of the secod half.. The third sceario recogizes a adjustmet made for upcomig or uder costructio developmet projects, as well as assumig a progressively higher level of birth activity. Sice these future birth estimates oly begi to impact kidergarte erollmet begiig with the school year, the first four years of the primary period are idetical for the secod ad third scearios. I summary: Optio 1 Base Future Birth Estimate Progressio rate averages are based o six years. Future births are estimated as a average of the last five years. Optio 2 Higher Future Birth Estimate Maitais the same progressio rates as Optio 1. Icrease i Estimated Births Births affectig the erollmet size of classes begiig i could potetially icrease begiig with the birth estimates. Istead of usig the five year average for births, this sceario icreases birth estimates by 9 each year so that they are up to 398 by which impacts the fial year of our study period, Optio 3 Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housig Adjustmet Maitais the same progressio rates ad icreased birth estimates used i Optio 2. Accouts for icrease i expected housig costructio with a adjustmet that recogizes impact beyod tred developmet level. Optio 3 is recommeded as the most likely sceario. FIGURE 26: Projected Erollmets, OPTION 1 Base Future Birth Estimate Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K TOTAL , , , , , , , , , ,726 27

33 ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FIGURE 27: Projected Erollmets, OPTION 2 Higher Future Birth Estimate Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K TOTAL , , , , , , , , , ,917 * The birth figure for each row does ot pertai to births durig that year, but rather the births that occurred or is expected to occur six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kidergarte ratio is the applied to get the projected kidergarte class. FIGURE 28: Projected Erollmets, OPTION 3 Higher Future Birth Estimate Plus Housig Adjustmet for Most Likely Potetial Developmet Births 6 School Year Years Ago* K TOTAL , , , , , , , , , ,009 * The birth figure for each row does ot pertai to births durig that year, but rather the births that occurred or is expected to occur six years prior to the projected year. The average birth-to-kidergarte ratio is the applied to get the projected kidergarte class. 28