RAIPUR AS A NEW CAPITAL: IMPACT ON POPULATION

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2 It. J. Egg. Res. & Sci. & Tech Vadaa Agrawal, 2013 Research Paper RAIPUR AS A NEW CAPITAL: IMPACT ON POPULATION ISSN Vol. 2, No. 1, February IJERST. All Rights Reserved Vadaa Agrawal 1* *Correspodig Author: Vadaa Agrawal, vadaaagrawal28@gmail.com As a city Raipur has bee give a Capital status, a ew urba cetre is comig up ear old settlemet, the existig city is goig through major structural ad fuctioal chages, which have tremedous impact o the populatio growth ad it effects the overall housig sceario such as additioal housig demads, chages i housig typology ad occupacy rate, icreased lad value, emergece of slums, etc. Hece there was a tremedous pressure o the urba plaers ad differet developmet authorities to maage the systematic growth of the city. The paper aims at fidig out the probable growth of populatio of the city, if it had ot bee declared as the capital city of the state of Chhattisgarh. The paper also looks ito the growth of populatio of the city after it has bee declared as a Capital city. This paper aalyses how the populatio chage takes place whe the status of the city is chaged. Further, the future populatio growth as expected is also foud out by various methods usig mathematical ad Graphical models. Keywords: Capital, Urba cetre, Settlemet, Impact, Housig sceario, Housig demad, Housig typology, Occupacy rate, Lad value, Slums INTRODUCTION First we mould our cities ad the our cities mould us. Wisto Churchill Costatios Apostolou Doxiadis, a emiet architect ad plaer, said the greatest problem of cities was the problem of maagig growth; he argued with the city plaers ad said iadequate provisios for urba growth, resulted city growth like cacer. The ier core affected the surroudig eighborhoods ad outer edges gobble up the atural ladscapes. He proposed several solutios for the rapidly growig cities, oe of which was for city plaers, to leave room for the expasio of the city core, alog a predetermied axis so that most urba expasio would be chaeled i the sigle directio. The Raipur city derived its ame from its creator, the Kalchuri Kig Brahmdev Rai who established it as the capital of his kigdom i the 1 Departmet of Architecture, NIT Raipur, Chhattisgarh, Idia. 41

3 early fifteeth cetury. (Sadarbh Chhattisgarh, 2000) It is the largest urba cetre of the Chhattisgarh regio, ad was the secod importat commercial cetre after Idore whe it was a part of erstwhile state of Madhya Pradesh. (Raipur Developmet Pla, 2011) Now the importace ad sigificace of the city have icreased may times due to its ew capital status, ad comig up of ew urba ceter (capital complex) ear the existig city, so it has to shoulder two resposibilities, i.e., admiistrative ad as ecoomic capital of the State. Therefore the pressure of developmet o Raipur city ca easily be predicted i the ear future. Raipur was a growig city eve before it was give Capital status because of its commercial, idustrial ad agricultural activities. It has other factors of importace such as abudat atural resources, availability of critical ifrastructuresurplus power ad opportuities i ifrastructure provisios. The productio factors such as low cost of lad, peaceful idustrial workforce are available here. After declarig Raipur as a state capital o 1st November 2000, its importace has icreased istatly ad the State Govermet took various iitiative measures to portray Raipur i atioal ad iteratioal sceario. The state Govermet prepared a Idustrial friedly policy ad givig icetives to attract large ivestmets i core sectors ad dowstream Idustries, ad a rapid work is goig o trasportatio ad ifrastructure developmets. At the same time the state govermet decided to build a prestigious ad beautiful capital city for the state. The prime objective of the city is to be ecoomically viable with least fiacial burde o state govermet. So it is expected that there will certaily be a impact o the existig Raipur city ad there will be a major structural ad fuctioal chage withi the city ad ample of employmet opportuities will be geerated due to the large ivestmet i differet sectors. This will result i a huge populatio growth particularly i the existig city. It is predicted that this additioal growth i populatio is due to the people comig from outside of Raipur. It would create tremedous pressure o housig which may cause may udesirable situatios. Thus it becomes imperative to develop ecessary policy guidelies, proposals, recommedatios, to deal with the future growth of populatio i the existig city Raipur. MATERIALS AND METHODS There are basically two types of projectios, mathematical ad graphical, although the two types are somewhat iterchageable because mathematical methods ca be plotted ad graphical data ca be described, mathematically. Data Sources Some commo sources of populatio iformatio are: Cesus of Idia. State, regioal, couty, ad city plaig agecies. Muicipal records. Births, deaths, other records. Master plas (Developmet plas). Water billig records. Electricity billig records. The various methods to compute populatio projectios, few of the computig major factors of growth dyamics of ay settlemet is Populatio Projectio Method, Graphical method etc. 42

4 Populatio Projectio Methods Projectios are a extrapolatio of historical data (populatio versus time) ito the future. The accuracy of populatio projectios is geerally cosidered directly proportioal to the size of the existig populatio ad the historical rate of growth, ad iversely proportioal to the legth of the time projectio. I order to compute populatio chage, the first step is to compute the rate of chage. This requires havig populatios for two time periods. These ca be ay two poits i time sice the rate of chage will be based o the umber of years betwee the two time periods. Rate of Chage P 1 t 2 P Pt 1 Percetage Rate of Chage P P t 2 P t % W he computig rates of chage ad populatio projectios, there are 2 key assumptios. First, the rate of chage over 10 years is assumed to be equally divided across each of the 10 years, ad secod, the populatio is assumed to cotiue to grow at the same rate as it has i the past, usig both the geometric ad expoetial projectios. Geometric Growth The formula for geometric growth is: P t+ = P t (1+r) where P t+ is the year we are projectig to, i this case, 2010; ad P t = The edig poit for computig the rate of chage, i this case, 2000; r = The rate of chage computed above; ad = The umber of time periods you are projectig forward. I this case, it has bee computed a te-years rate of chage ad are computig a projectio for 10 years later, so = 1. If we were usig the same rate of chage ( ) to compute a projected populatio for 2030, would equal 3 (3 te-year time periods). Expoetial Growth Expoetial growth is a bit more complex because it uses e. e is a costat with a value of approximately The formula for computig expoetial growth is: P Pe t t r* where P t+ is the year we are projectig to, i this case, 2010; ad P t is the edig poit for computig the rate of chage, i this case, 2000; ad r is the rate of chage computed above; ad is the umber of time periods we are projectig forward. Existig Sceario of Populatio (Literature Survey) For fidig out the existig populatio sceario of Raipur, the data has bee collected from secodary sources (Literature survey). Accordig to Literature survey populatio ad growth treds are hereuder. As per 2011 Cesus, the populatio of Raipur was 6.97 lakhs i 2001, 4.63 lakhs i 1991 ad a average decadal growth rate was 50.54% whe it was ot a capital city. The table of decadal populatio growth treds of Raipur is give below (Table 3.1) (Chart 3.1). 43

5 Table 3.1: As per 2011 Cesus, the Populatio of Raipur Populatio ad Growth Treds is Hereuder Year Populatio (i lakhs) Decadal Variatio (%) Chart 3.1: The Chart Shows Populatio Growth Treds From The Year 1901 to Populatio(lakhs) RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Sceario-A: Populatio Projectio, If Raipur Was Not Declared As Capital The future populatio based o the secodary data has bee predicted as uder: I order to derive the growth rate of the city for the ext 10 years, the growth rate of the last three decades has to be studied. Durig , the settled refugees from Bagladesh had abormally icreased the growth rate up to 64.2%. Hece the cosideratio of this growth rate may erroeous. Agai, the growth i the last decade (50.54%) was much due to the declaratio of Raipur as the capital of the ew state of Chhattisgarh. The growth i the ext decade will fall back to the ormal, which ca be take as the average of the decadal growth rate of the last two decades, i.e., 43.54%. The populatio has bee calculated usig three methods described below. The fial populatio data are based o all the three results. The methods are give below. Method-1 Geometric rate of chage: Pt Pt 1 r = 2011, = 6.97 lakhs (i 2001), r = 0.44, = 1 Pt Pt 1 r P 2011 = 6.97 ( lakhs) Similarly, P 2021 = (1 + = lakhs Ad, P 2031 = (1 + = lakhs Method-2 Expoetial rate of chage: P Pe t t r* P 2011 = 6.97 = lakhs. Similarly, P 2021 = = lakhs Ad, P 2031 = = lakhs Method-3 Graphical method showig the populatio projectio: (Chart 4.1) ad followig (Table 4.1) shows the average populatio projectio from mathematical ad graphical methods (Sceario-A). 44

6 Chart 4.1: Graphical Method Shows the Populatio Projectio i Sceario-A Pt Pt 1 r Sceario-A Populatio (i Lakhs) P 2021 = (1 + = lakhs) Similarly, P 2031 = (1 + = lakhs) Method-2 Expoetial rate of chage: P Pe t t r* P 2021 = = lakhs. Similarly, P 2031 = = lakhs Table 4.1: Average Populatio Projectio From Mathematical ad Graphical Methods (Sceario-A) Year Populatio (i lakhs) Decadal Variatio (%) Sceario-B Populatio Projectio, After Raipur Has Bee Declared as Capital For 2011 As per Cesus 2011, the populatio of Raipur is lakhs i This populatio icludes the impacts o populatio, as state capital. The projected populatio i 2021 ad 2031 is to be computed by both Mathematical ad Graphical methods. Method-1 Geometric rate of chage: Pt Pt 1 r = 2021, = (i 2011, as per cesus 2011), r = 0.61, = 1 Method-3 Graphical method showig the populatio projectio: (Chart 4.2) ad followig (Table 4.2) shows average populatio projectio from Mathematical ad Graphical methods: (Sceario-B) Chart 4.2: Graphical Method Shows the Populatio Projectio i Sceario-B Sceario-B Populatio (i Lakhs) Table 4.2: Average Populatio Projectio from Mathematical ad Graphical Methods: (Sceario-B) Year Populatio (i lakhs) Decadal Variatio (%) CONCLUSION Comparative (Chart 5.1) shows the average results of both the methods, i.e., Graphical ad

7 Chart 5.1: Comparative Shows the Average Results of Both the Methods, i.e., Graphical ad Mathematical Methods mathematical methods. The differece of growth rate showed i Sceario-A ad Sceario-B. After computig the populatio projectio, it has bee cocluded that i sceario-a, populatio for the year 2011 = lakhs, 2021 =.45 lakhs, ad 2031 will be lakhs ad populatio growth rate for four decades are 49.33%. But i sceario- B, populatio projectio for the year 2011 = lakhs, 2021 = lakhs, ad 2031 = ad populatio growth rate is 61.38%. The differece i the both the growth rate is approximate 12%. So this is cocluded that 12% extra impact of populatio has to face the city tha the atural growth.. This data also help to the urba plaers ad differet developmet authorities to maage the systematic growth of the city ad the provisio for future expasio. Comparative Chart No Sceario-A Sceario-B REFERENCES 1. Costatios A Doxiadis, (1968): Ekistics, A Itroductio to the Sciece of Huma Settlemets. 2. Developmet Pla of Raipur (2005). 3. Developmet Pla of Raipur (2011). 4. Developmet Pla of Raipur (2021). 5. Cesus of Idia (2011), Circular No Badyopadhy A (2000), Text Book of Tow Plaig, 1 st Editio, Books & Allied(P)Ltd, Kolkata, Idia. 7. Surja L (2000), Sadharbh Chhattisgarh, 1 st Editio, Raipur, Idia. 8. Goodall Brai (1972), The Ecoomics of Urba Areas, Pergamo Press, Uiversity of Califoria. 9. Hery Louis (1981), Mathematical Models for the Growth of Huma Populatio, Four Volume Set: Academic press, Lodo, UK. 10. Kieve L Jeffery ad Balchi N paul (1969), Urba Lad Ecoomics, 3 rd Editio, the Uiversity of Michiga. 11. Mulh F Richard (Sep., 1998), Urba Ecoomics Problems, Joural of Ecoomic Literature, Vol. 36, No. 3, pp

This article is part of a series providing

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