Comparing generations using NTA: Insights from French age profiles
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1 Comparing generations using NTA: Insights from French age profiles Hippolyte d Albis, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics Carole Bonnet, INED Julien Navaux, Université Paris Dauphine, Paris School of Economics Jacques Pelletan, Université Paris 8 François-Charles Wolff, Université de Nantes Global NTA Workshop, June 21 24, 2016, Saly, Senegal
2 Motivation Debate about intergenerational equity in France: Chauvel (1998), Chauvel et Schröder (2014): A clash between generations, benefiting to baby-boomer Baby Boomers: Good economic position Accumulate a lot of wealth Monopolize public transfers Young generations: Debt of previous generations Difficulties for the integration on the labor market Insufficient access to housing
3 Motivation Debate about intergenerational equity in France: Chauvel (1998), Chauvel et Schröder (2014): A clash between generations, benefiting to baby-boomer VS Piketty et al. (2011), Allègre (2011): No clash between generations Inequalities are more important within generations rather than between generations Growth benefits to every generation
4 Motivation Issue: Do Baby-boomers benefit from intergenerational inequities in France? Inputs: NTA in France : LCD, transfers & reallocations completed
5 Outline Intergenerational equity indicators Results: 1. Lifecycle Deficit 2. Asset Based Reallocations 3. Public Transfers
6 Intergenerational equity indicators 3 most common indicators (Blanchet, 1998, 2010 ; Bonnet, 2014) Indicator 1: Compare age groups Indicator 2: Compare the standard of living of several generations at the same age Indicator 3: Compare the balance sheet of several generations over the entire life cycle
7 Intergenerational equity indicators 3 most common indicators (Blanchet, 1998, 2010 ; Bonnet, 2014) Indicator 1: Compare age groups Indicator 2: Compare the standard of living of several generations at the same age Indicator 3: Compare the balance sheet of several generations over the entire life cycle
8 Intergenerational equity indicators 3 most common indicators (Blanchet, 1998, 2010 ; Bonnet, 2014) Indicator 1: Compare age groups Indicator 2: Compare the standard of living of several generations at the same age Indicator 3: Compare the balance sheet of several generations over the entire life cycle
9 Intergenerational equity indicators Choose a criterion for each indicator Indicator 1: Compare age groups Criterion: Stability of the relative situation of each age group Indicator 2: Compare the standard of living of several generations at the same age Criterion: Each generation improves its position with respect to the previous generation at the same age
10 Intergenerational equity indicators Choose a criterion for each indicator Indicator 1: Compare age groups Criterion: Stability of the relative situation of each age group Indicator 2: Compare the standard of living of several generations at the same age Criterion: Each generation improves its position with respect to the previous generation at the same age
11 Outline Intergenerational equity indicators Results: 1. Lifecycle Deficit 2. Asset Based Reallocations 3. Public Transfers
12 Constant thousand euros Lifecycle Deficit: Consumption 30 Per capita age profiles - France Age
13 Constant thousand euros Lifecycle Deficit: Consumption 30 Per capita age profiles - France Age
14 Constant thousand euros Lifecycle Deficit: Consumption 30 Per capita cohorts - France C 1990 C C 2000 C1960 C 1950 C 1940 C 1930 C 1920 C 1910 C C Age
15 Constant thousand euros Lifecycle Deficit: Labor income 45 Per capita age profiles - France Age
16 Constant thousand euros Lifecycle Deficit: Labor income 45 Per capita cohorts - France C 1970 C C 1980 C 1940 C C C C 1910 C Age
17 Outline Intergenerational equity indicators Results: 1. Lifecycle Deficit 2. Asset Based Reallocations 3. Public Transfers
18 Asset Based Reallocations Focus on households Focus on inflows: Private property income: financial assets + real assets Private capital income: owner occupied housing
19 Constant thousand euros Asset Based Reallocations: Private property income inflows 30 Per capita age profiles - France Age
20 Constant thousand euros Asset Based Reallocations: Private property income inflows 45 Per capita cohorts - France C C C C 1970 C 1930 C 1920 C 1910 C Age
21 Constant thousand euros Asset Based Reallocations: Owner occupied housing Per capita profiles - France ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0, Age
22 Constant thousand euros Asset Based Reallocations: Owner occupied housing 3,5 Per capita cohorts - France C ,5 C ,5 C C 1940 C 1930 C 1920 C1910 0,5 C 1950 C Age
23 Outline Intergenerational equity indicators Results: 1. Lifecycle Deficit 2. Asset Based Reallocations 3. Public Transfers
24 Ratio Public transfer outflows Ratios of public transfers outflows 60+/25-59, 0-24/25-59 and 40-59/25-39 Per capita - France ,40 1,20 1,17 1,21 1,20 1,15 1,08 1,00 0,98 0,99 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,47 0,42 0,41 0,48 0,51 0,52 0,52 0,20 0,22 0,21 0,20 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,16 0,00 Year 60+/ / /25-39
25 thousand Public transfer outflows Age profiles of public transfer outflows in per capita other taxes Inheritance tax Payroll tax 20 VAT Corporation tax (IS) movable assets 15 Employer contributions Tobacco Petroleum Products (TIPP) 10 Value added tax (VAT) 5 0 social contributions CSG IRPP Age Employer contributions social contributions Housing tax and property tax CSG CRDS & Income tax (IRPP)
26 thousand Public transfer inflows Age profiles of public transfer inflows in per capita Other cash transfers Professional insertion ATMP Pensions Scholarships 20 Family benefits Pensions Disabled (AAH) Solidarity (RMI, RSA) Unemployment benefits 15 Family benefits Other in-kind transfers 10 Housing Assistance (APL) APA Elders 5 Education Other in-kind transfers Health Long term care (APA) Health Age Education
27 Constant thousand euros Public transfer inflows 40 Per capita cohorts - France C 1940 C C C 1990 C 1910 C C 1980 C 1970 C 1960 C Age Source: d Albis & Navaux, 2016
28 Constant thousand euros Public transfer inflows 40 Per capita cohorts - France Early retirement: + for C 1940 C 1940 C C C 1990 C 1910 C C 1980 C 1970 C 1960 C Age Source: d Albis & Navaux, 2016
29 Ratio Public transfer inflows 4,0 3,5 3,0 3,2 Ratios of public transfers inflows 60+/25-59 and 0-24/25-59 Per capita - France ,9 3,1 3,2 3,3 3,2 3,1 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,3 60+/ / ,0 0,5 0,0 Year Source: d Albis & Navaux, 2016
30 Public transfer inflows Since 1940 in the United States, the ratio of expenditures per child under age 22 to expenditures per adult age 65 or over has hardly changed. By contrast, the popular view of generation fighting-that public expenditures on the elderly grew rapidly because the old became politically powerful as they became more numerous-cannot explain why expenditures on children grew just as rapidly. Gary Becker (1988)
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