Declining Fertility and Rising Cost of Children and the Elderly in East Asian Countries
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1 Declining Fertility and Rising Cost of Children and the Elderly in East Asian Countries Naohiro Ogawa Andrew Mason Rikiya Matsukura Amonthep Chawla An-Chi Tung 7 th Global NTA Meeting: Population Aging and the Generational Economy, June 11-12, 2010, Honolulu, Hawaii
2 Figure 1. Proportion of the population with below replacement-level fertility in Asia s total population 100 (%) Year Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, New York, 2009 (advanced Excel tables).
3 (million persons) 35 Fluctuation in the number of children in four selected Asian countries and regions, Year Japan Republic of Korea Thailand Taiwan Province of China Data for Japan for : Statistics Bureau of Japan, various years, Population estimates; and Ogawa et al. (2003) NUPRI Population Projection. Data for Republic of Korea, and Thailand: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, New York, 2009 (advanced Excel tables). Data for Taiwan Province of China until 2007: Council for Economic Planning and Development of Taiwan, Taiwan Statistical Data Book 2002 and Data for the period : Council for Economic Planning and Development of Taiwan, Population Projections for Taiwan Areas:
4 Figure 6. Age-specific profiles of per capita consumption and production: Japan, Million yen (measured in 2000 constant price) Labor income 1999 Labor income 2004 Labor income 1994 Labor income 1989 Labor income 1984 Consumption 2004 Consumption 1999 Consumption 1994 Consumption 1999 Consumption Age
5 Million yen Age Public transfers Private transfers Asset based reallocations Life cycle deficits
6 Million yen Age Public transfers Private transfers Asset based reallocations Life cycle deficits
7 Million yen Age Public transfers Private transfers Asset based reallocations Life cycle deficits
8 Million yen Age Public transfers Private transfers Asset based reallocations Life cycle deficits
9 Million yen Age Public transfers Private transfers Asset based reallocations Life cycle deficits
10 Our recent work on the declining fertility and the rising cost of children in East Asian countries Asian Population Studies, Vol.5, No.3, 2009, by the same authors
11 Calculation of child cost 1 Lifecycle deficit (LCD)from age 0 to the self-supporting age (24 years old for 1984 and 26 years old for 2004) 2 Standardized by mean labor income age (for international comparison) years for Japan in 2004 compared with 9.6 years for TFR dropped from 1.81 to 1.29
12 Sampled countries The same computation was applied to NTA s Asian countries ( , 47 observed values) Taiwan has the highest value of the per capita normalized LCD for children: 14 years in 2003 East Asian group: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand
13 Figure 5. TFR vs. normalized per capita LCD for children in selected Asian countries Child LCD / YL (30-49) JPN(04 JPN(99) KOR(04) JPN(94) JPN(89) THAI(04) JPN(84) ln(child LCD)= ln(tfr) R 2 = TFR
14 Figure 6. TFR vs. normalized per capita LCD for children in Japan, Child LCD / YL (30-49) ln(child LCD)= ln(tfr) R 2 = TFR
15 9 Figure 7. TFR vs. normalized per capita human capital spending for children in selected Asian countries 8 Child human capital / YL (30-49) JPN(04) JPN(99) JPN(94) KOR(04) JPN(89) THAI(04) JPN(84) ln(child human capital )= ln(tfr) R 2 = TFR
16 Quantity-Quality Tradeoff: interpretation of elasticities ln C = b0 +b1 ln N where C=cost per child and N=number of children ln CN (cost per adult) = b0 + (b1+1) ln N KEY: b1 > -1 or <-1
17 One of the major criticisms we encountered was: The amount of resources allocated to children must be heavily dependent upon the amount of resources allotted to the elderly
18 In this new paper, therefore, we examine both the cost of children and the elderly in the context of declining fertility in East Asia Is the amount of resources allocated to children crowed out by the increasing amount of resources for the elderly?
19 Asian Data East Asia South Korea 2000 Japan Taiwan Other Asian countries Thailand Philippines 1999
20 Consumption Consumption 0-24 / income Taiwan Japan Year
21 Private Consumption Consumption 0-24 / income Taiwan Japan Year
22 Private Consumption, education Consumption 0-24 / income Taiwan Japan Year
23 Proportion of private spending in per capita educational costs for children aged 0-24 in selected countries Country Year (%) Sweden France Austria Slovenia Hungary United States Costa Rica Japan Chile Indonesia Uruguay The Philippines Republic of Korea Taiwan
24 Private Consumption, health Consumption 0-24 / income Taiwan Japan Year
25 Public Consumption Consumption 0-24 / income Taiwan Japan Year
26 Public Consumption, education Consumption 0-24 / income Taiwan Japan Year
27 Public Consumption, health Consumption 0-24 / income Taiwan Japan Year
28 Consumption Consumption 65+ / income Taiwan Japan Year
29 Private Consumption Consumption 65+ / income Taiwan Japan Year
30 Private Consumption, health Consumption 65+ / income Taiwan Japan Year
31 Public Consumption Consumption 65+ / income Taiwan Japan Year
32 Public Consumption, health Consumption 65+ / income Taiwan Japan Year
33 JAPAN TFR 8 Consumption / Labor income 30-49
34 TAIWAN TFR 8 Consumption / Labor income 30-49
35 ALL ASIA Dependent variable TFR Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ Consumption Private consumption 0-24 Private education consumption 0-24 Private health consumption Public consumption Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption
36 EAST ASIA Dependent variable Consumption 0-24 Private consumption 0-24 Private education consumption 0-24 Private health consumption 0-24 Public consumption 0-24 Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption 0-24 TFR Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ
37 TAIWAN Dependent variable Consumption 0-24 Private consumption 0-24 Private education consumption 0-24 Private health consumption 0-24 Public consumption 0-24 Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption 0-24 TFR Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ
38 JAPAN Dependent variable TFR Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ Consumption Private consumption Private education consumption Private health consumption 0-24 Public consumption 0-24 Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption
39 ALL ASIA Dependent variable Consumption 0-24 Private consumption 0-24 Private education consumption 0-24 Private health consumption 0-24 Public consumption 0-24 Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption 0-24 TFR Consumption Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ
40 EAST ASIA Dependent variable TFR Consumption 65+ Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ Consumption Private consumption Private education consumption Private health consumption 0-24 Public consumption 0-24 Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption
41 EAST ASIA Dependent variable Consumption 0-24 Private consumption 0-24 Private education consumption 0-24 Private health consumption 0-24 Public consumption 0-24 Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption 0-24 TFR Consumption Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ
42 TAIWAN Dependent variable Consumption 0-24 Private consumption 0-24 Private education consumption 0-24 Private health consumption 0-24 Public consumption 0-24 Public education consumption 0-24 Public health consumption 0-24 TFR Consumption Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ
43 JAPAN Dependent variable TFR Consumption 65+ Taiwan dummy ADJ. RSQ Consumption Private consumption Private education consumption Private health consumption Public consumption Public education consumption Public health consumption
44 Does the crowding out effect exist in East Asia? Miller s comment: Asian countries are different from Latin American countries Lee s comment: East Asians have strong altruistic values toward their children, which are distinctively different from parents in other regions
45 Becker s quality-quantity tradeoff The decline in numbers may be offset by an increase in human capital and, hence, productivity.
46 International comparison of students mathematics literacy in PISA study: Mean scores Rank Country 2000 Country 2003 Country Japan 557 Hong Kong-China 550 Taiwan Korea 547 Finland 544 Finland New Zealand 537 Korea 542 Hong Kong-China Finland 536 Netherlands 538 Korea Australia 533 Liechtenstein 536 Netherlands Canada 533 Japan 534 Switzerland Switzerland 529 Canada 532 Canada United Kingdom 529 Belgium 529 Macao-China Belgium 520 Macao-China 527 Liechtenstein France 517 Switzerland 527 Japan Austria 515 Australia 524 New Zealand Denmark 514 New Zealand 523 Bergium Iceland 514 Czech Republic 516 Australia Liechtenstein 514 Iceland 515 Estonia Sweden 510 Denmark 514 Denmark Ireland 503 France 511 Czech Republic Norway 499 Sweden 509 Iceland Czech Republic 498 Austria 506 Austria United States 493 Germany 503 Slovenia Germany 490 Ireland 503 Germany 504 Source:Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (2007). OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA): Summary of the 2006 International Study Results, (Last accessed on December 24, 2009).
47 Hong Kong, China Republic of Korea Average daily time spent by 8th graders on watching TV and video in selected countries in 2007 Japan Singapore Malaysia United States United Kingdom Sweden Norway Russia Australia Taiwan, China Italy Thailand Indonesia Turkey Hours Source: National Institute for Educational Policy Research (2007).The 2007 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS 2007): Report on the Findings of the International Study (Overview), (Last accessed on December 28, 2009).
48 Republic of Korea Japan United Kingdom Australia Thailand Sweden Indonesia United States Taiwan, China Hong Kong, China Norway Singapore Malaysia Turkey Italy Russia Average daily time spent by 8 th graders on homework in selected countries in Hours Source: National Institute for Educational Policy Research (2007).The 2007 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS 2007): Report on the Findings of the International Study (Overview), (Last accessed on December 28, 2009).
49 Number of freeters and NEETs 450 (in 10,000 persons) Freeters NEETs Year Source: Cabinet Office, 2003, White Paper on National Lifestyle Cabinet Office, 2005, Survey on young people not in employment (interim report).
50 Thank you
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