What s Hot & What s Not
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1 What s Hot & What s Not Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist Vancouver Real Estate Forum April 25, 27
2 The Economic Landscape is Shifting Global Growth Moves East annual average % change, real GDP f Canadian Growth Moves West annual average % change, real GDP f NAFTA Euro- Zone Japan India China
3 Emerging Nations Will Drive Global Demand Population Population Growth 1.8 billions 1.8 % CHINA INDIA JAPAN.8.6 EU CAN- US INDIA CHINA CAN- US EU-12 JAPAN Source: IMF
4 Energy & Mining are Hot Major Canadian Exports U.S. Imports Index: 2= Crude Petroleum 2 % share of total ex. Energy Natural Gas 15 Euro zone 13 Mexico 115 Mining 1 Vehicles & Parts 85 Forest Products China Japan
5 Canadian Industry: What s Hot and What s Not Manufacturing Services & Construction GDP, Index: 2= 15 GDP, Index: 2= Wood Products Autos & Parts Pulp & Paper Products Accommodation & Food Wholesale & Retail Trade Construction Information & Communication Financial Services & Real Estate 7 Computers & Electric Products 11 Health & Education
6 The West is Hot, is Not Export Growth Soars International Export Receipts % share, 26 Energy 21% All Other 42% Forestry 37% Export Growth Stalls International Export Receipts % share, 26 Commodities 21% Vehicles & Parts 42% All Other 37% Index: 22= Rest of Index: 22= Rest of
7 Inflation Risks Remain Low Oil and Natural Gas s Inflation Dichotomy US$/bbl Natural Gas (Nymex) (RHS) WTI Oil (LHS) US$/mmbtu futures Index: 2= New Housing Price Index Gasoline Total CPI Motor Vehicle Prices Electricity Price Forecast 7 Oil (US$ per barrel) Natural Gas (US$ per mmbtu) f Computers & Consumer Electronics
8 Low Inflation and Slower Growth Point To Interest Rate Declines Canadian Inflation y/y% change forecast Mortgage and Prime Rates 9 % forecast 3 US Core CPI 8 Canadian Core CPI year Conventional Mortgage 8 CPI, y/y% change 5 2 Rest of 5 4 Prime
9 Trade & Fiscal Surpluses Add to Canadian Dollar Strength Tops G7 In Fiscal & Trade Trends Longer-term C$ Trend Still Firm 8 7 C$ billions Trade Balance forecast.95.9 C$/US$ forecast Energy Balance Motor Vehicles & Parts year Average ( ) Federal Provincial Balance Balance Canadian Dollar
10 Business Investment Drives Growth Spending Slips forecast Energy Boosts Non-Residential Construction 6 annual y/y % change Real Consumption U.S Index: 2= Non-Residential Construction forecast U.S. 1 8 annual y/y % change Index: 2=
11 Housing and Autos Have Peaked Housing Starts Index: 2= U.S. forecast Auto Sales Index: 2= forecast 6 9 U.S Housing Starts Index: 2= Auto Sales Index: 2=
12 Spending Tilts West Unemployment Rate by Province Retail Sales Manitoba Saskatchewan CANADA Saskatchewan Manitoba Atlantic Atlantic %, 26 % change,
13 Canadians Follow Jobs West Net Interprovincial Migration Net Urban In Migration 7 6 s, 25Q4-26Q3 Toronto AB BC SK MB QC Atlantic ON Montreal Calgary Edmonton Ottawa Victoria Vancouver* immigration & net inter-urban migration, 24/5, s Source: Statistics ; *includes Abbotsford
14 Construction More Western Exposure Industrial Availability Rates Office Vacancy Rates Downtown Montreal Montreal Halifax Toronto Halifax Toronto Edmonton Vancouver Edmonton Vancouver Calgary %, 26 Q4 Calgary %, 26 Q Source: CB Richard Ellis Source: CB Richard Ellis
15 Provincial Finances Less Western Exposure Net Debt*, March 26 Nova Scotia Newfoundland & Labrador Prince Edward Island New Brunswick Manitoba Saskatchewan Budget Balances, Fiscal 27e British Columbia Manitoba Nova Scotia Saskatchewan New Brunswick Prince Edward Island British Columbia % of GDP Newfoundland & Labrador* $ billions *Does not include unfunded pension liabilities. Source: Moody s Investors Service *Final results not yet reported for Newfoundland & Labrador
16 Immigration Drives Population Growth Immigration vs. Natural Increase 3 25 annual average, thousands Immigration Natural Increase Immigration by Region % share of national, 25 Other 2 British Columbia 15 Net Interprovincial Migration 6 annual average, s s 197s 198s 199s
17 What s Hot & What s Not Warren Jestin SVP & Chief Economist Vancouver Real Estate Forum April 25, 27
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