Public opinion poll in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) October 2009

Transcription

1 Public opinion poll in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) October 2009

2 Introduction and methodology Quantitative research using face-to to-face method Sample size n=1500 respondents aged 18+ Two-stage stratified random sample (stratification by region and settlement type) Data collection timing: 8 to 23 October 2009 Party ratings were obtained using secret ballots 2

3 General issues right wrong direction Government performance EU / NATO integration Voting preferences among likely voters Opinions on BiH s territorial organization Policy issues 3

4 General issues More than two-thirds thirds (83%) of all citizens think that BiH is going in the wrong direction. The percentage of those who think that BiH is going in right direction is higher in the Republika Srpska (22%) and in the Brcko District (31%) than in the Federation of BiH (7%). More than half (51%) of citizens believe that their life is worse e and one-third says that their life is the same (35%). The percentage of those who think that their t life is better is somewhat higher among those with higher education and professional rank. Two thirds (66%) of citizens see unemployment as main problem that BiH is facing today. The other two main problems are crime (29%) and corruption (27%) 4

5 Bosnia-Herzegovina s major political parties Federation-based parties Bosnian Party (BOSS) Bosnian Patriotic Party (BPS) Civic Democratic Party (GDS) Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990) Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia Herzegovina (HDZ-BiH) New Croatian Initiative - Croatian Peasants Party (NHI-HSS) Democratic National Union (DNZ) Liberal Democratic Party (LDS) Nasa Stranka (NS) Party of Democratic Action (SDA) Party for Bosnia-Herzegovina (SBiH) Social Democratic Party (SDP) Republika Srpska-based parties Democratic Party (DP) Democratic People's Union (DNS) Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) Party of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) Socialist Party of Republika Srpska (SPRS) Serb Democratic Party (SDS) Serb Radical Party (SRS) RS Serb Radical Party (SRS) VS 5

6 Right wrong direction by party preference 50% 13% 27% 8% 10% 20% 13% 20% 2% 4% 1% 6% 4% 11% 10% 6% 83% 89% 96% 85% 87% 93% 97% 94% 96% 67% 73% 80% 89% 86% 88% 48% 4% 7% 3% 5% 7% 2% 0% 3% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 6% Right direction Wrong direction DK NA 6 Whole sample SNSD SDP SDA - SDS HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SBB BiH PDP RS NS RADOM ZA BOLJITAK NAŠA STRANKA SRS HDZ 1990 Other Do not want to say

7 Biggest problems facing BiH today 7

8 General issues right wrong direction Government performance EU / NATO integration Voting preferences among likely voters Opinions on BiH territorial organization Policy issues 8

9 Government performance Among the five top priorities for the government, respondents ranked the reduction of unemployment (73%) as most important, followed by improvements to the standard of living (71%), reduction of crime and corruption (69%), improvements of the situation of war victims (65%), and EU accession (64%). However, EU accession as a top single priority ranked first for 34%, before the reduction of unemployment (32%) and the improvement of the situation of war victims (30%). Only 13% of the respondents gave constitutional reform the first rank, and merely 17% opted for the protection of their r ethnic group as their first priority. Government dissatisfaction mirrors citizens top priorities: 89% of respondents are unsatisfied or very unsatisfied with the reduction of unemployment nt and 88% with both the reduction crime and corruption and the improvement of the standard ard of living. On the other hand, 29% are satisfied or very satisfied with the protection of their ethnic group and the return of the refugees and displaced persons, while e 28% are satisfied or very satisfied with tourism development. RS citizens and SNSD voters are slightly more satisfied with RS government performance on reduction of crime and corruption than respondents in the Federation. Concerning government performance on EU accession, citizens in the Republika Srpska, and among them potential voters of SNSD and PDP, are more satisfied ied than citizens of the Federation. 9

10 Most important tasks for government Imagine yourself in a situation where you determine the government s most important tasks that must be done. 10

11 Level of satisfaction with issues related to government performance (slide 1 of 2) How satisfied are you with the current government s way of solving the following issues: 11

12 Level of satisfaction with issues related to government performance (slide 2 of 2) How satisfied are you with the current government s way of solving the following issues: 12

13 Government performance European Union accession Whole sample Sarajevo region Tuzla region Bihac region Srednja Bosna region Hercegovina region North RS & Brcko East RS FBIH RS District Brcko SNSD SDP SDA SDS HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SBB BIH PDP RS NS RZB NAŠA STRANKA SRS HDZ 1990 Ostale Don t want to say 78% 68% 38% 39% 37% 40% 54% 66% 48% 47% 38% 27% 22% 26% 41% 39% 45% 43% 42% 54% 25% 30% 23% 13% 15% 3% Very unsatisfied 42% 48% 48% 57% 45% 36% 28% 33% 45% 52% 35% 32% 45% 59% 63% 55% 53% 47% 38% 35% 39% 17% 31% 34% 39% 34% Unsatisfied 30% 36% 43% 32% 33% 22% 23% 14% 7% 3% 10% 2% 0% 4% 5% 3% 3% 6% 12% 27% 22% 7% 10% 9% 0% 0% Satisfied 24% 3% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 6% 9% 1% 7% 8% 0% 2% 0% 7% 0% 2% 4% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% Very satisfied 3% 4% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 9% 1% 5% 0% 3% 1% 1% 8% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 5% 0% 4% 0% 6% 3% DK NA 13

14 Government performance - Raising the standard of living Whole sample Sarajevo region Tuzla region Bihac region Srednja Bosna region Hercegovina region North RS & Brcko East RS FBIH RS District Brcko SNSD SDP SDA SDS HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SBB BIH PDP RS NS RZB NAŠA STRANKA SRS HDZ 1990 other Don t want to say 54% 62% 77% 82% 51% 55% 65% 63% 67% 73% 81% 57% 54% 58% 60% 39% 42% 40% 46% 52% 52% 54% 63% 23% 31% 42% Very unsatisfied 34% 34% 32% 41% 33% 37% 41% 32% 38% 39% 36% 41% 35% 30% 37% 34% 42% 21% 21% 18% 23% 26% 23% 19% 33% 30% Unsatisfied 9% 2% 2% 13% 3% 2% 19% 10% 3% 16% 35% 28% 4% 4% 9% 4% 2% 5% 0% 12% 0% 14% 5% 0% 8% 5% Satisfied 20% 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 5% 0% 3% 1% 0% 4% 0% 8% 14% 0% 1% 1% Very satisfied 2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 5% 1% 3% 0% 3% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 5% 0% 4% 1% DK NA 14

15 Government performance - Reduction of corruption and crime Whole sample Sarajevo region Tuzla region Bihac region Srednja Bosna region Hercegovina region North RS & Brcko East WERS FBIH RS District Brcko SNSD SDP SDA SDS HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SBB BIH PDP RS NS RZB NAŠA STRANKA SRS HDZ 1990 other Don t want to say 58% 72% 80% 57% 56% 64% 78% 75% 75% 66% 71% 61% 58% 62% 43% 46% 44% 48% 55% 62% 63% 49% 50% 27% 35% 26% Very unsatisfied 66% 39% 41% 30% 24% 31% 31% 16% 23% 28% 35% 35% 36% 39% 30% 34% 32% 35% 19% 24% 30% 21% 25% 16% 21% 22% Unsatisfied 34% 19% 24% 30% 9% 11% 1% 2% 4% 4% 9% 15% 20% 4% 4% 3% 12% 6% 4% 3% 1% 2% 4% 0% 8% 5% Satisfied 2% 1% 1% 6% 1% 0% 5% 1% 1% 4% 5% 3% 3% 0% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 14% 0% 4% 1% Very satisfied 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 2% 3% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% DK NA 15

16 Government performance Reduction of unemployment Whole sample Sarajevo region Tuzla region Bihac region Srednja Bosna region Hercegovina region North RS & Brcko East RS FBIH RS District Brcko SNSD SDP SDA SDS HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SBB BIH PDP RS NS RZB NAŠA STRANKA SRS HDZ 1990 other Don t want to say 84% 62% 73% 79% 56% 65% 66% 50% 55% 69% 63% 68% 51% 59% 64% 80% 80% 78% 70% 70% 30% 41% 57% 61% 41% 43% Very unsatisfied 27% 23% 26% 31% 28% 26% 34% 25% 29% 27% 30% 31% 28% 28% 33% 34% 49% 17% 20% 19% 11% 13% 22% 15% 16% 25% Unsatisfied 8% 14% 2% 2% 3% 5% 18% 7% 4% 14% 30% 24% 5% 4% 9% 21% 17% 3% 6% 0% 0% 3% 0% 6% 8% 4% Satisfied 2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 5% 3% 0% 4% 13% 4% 1% 1% 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% 6% 0% 5% 19% 0% 3% 1% Very satisfied 1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% DK NA 16

17 General issues right wrong direction Government performance EU / NATO integration Voting preferences among likely voters Opinions in BiH s territorial arrangements Policy issues 17

18 Support accession to EU whole sample Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU? 18

19 Support accession to EU by entity Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU? 19

20 Support accession to EU by demography Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU? Gender Age Education Working status Occupation Whole sample Male Female Primary school Secondary school High school-faculty Employed Unemployed Pupil-student Retired Management and expert Clerk Worker Other 61% 60% 61% 59% 53% 67% 64% 63% 60% 61% 58% 56% 62% 70% 64% 59% 60% 56% Completely support 26% 24% 27% 25% 33% 22% 22% 25% 26% 27% 29% 29% 23% 18% 24% 29% 26% 20% Somewhat support 6% 7% 6% 8% 7% 5% 6% 4% 7% 6% 8% 6% 8% 4% 5% 7% 7% 10% 6% 8% 4% 7% 7% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 13% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0% Somewhat do not support Completely do not support DK NA 20

21 Support accession to EU by geography Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU? Type of Region Entity Nationality settlement Personal income Whole sample Sarajevo region Tuzla region Bihac region Srednja Bosna region Hercegovina region North RS & Brcko East RS FBIH RS District Brcko Rural Urban Bosniak Croat Serb Other No income Up to 300 KM KM KM 801 and more KM NA/DK 61% 77% 91% 57% 75% 53% 36% 47% 74% 40% 28% 58% 63% 74% 62% 41% 62% 59% 61% 65% 53% 61% 62% Completely support 26% 14% 7% 26% 21% 32% 43% 29% 18% 38% 43% 27% 25% 19% 24% 36% 21% 26% 27% 22% 34% 28% 23% Somewhat support 6% 2% 0% 9% 2% 12% 10% 9% 4% 10% 23% 8% 5% 3% 9% 11% 5% 6% 5% 5% 8% 8% 8% Somewhat do not support 6% 6% 2% 6% 1% 4% 9% 13% 3% 11% 5% 6% 6% 3% 5% 10% 12% 8% 5% 7% 5% 3% 5% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2% Completely do not support DK NA 21

22 Support accession to EU by party preference Do you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU? Whole sample 61% SNSD 41% SDP SDA 80% 69% SDS 30% HDZ 51% STRANKA ZA BPS 75% 80% SBB BiH PDP RS 45% 48% NS RADOM Z NAŠA STRAN 82% 70% SRS RS 38% HDZ 1990 Other Dont want to say 53% 63% 65% Completely support 26% 37% 16% 25% 46% 31% 11% 20% 40% 38% 8% 18% 13% 39% 21% 22% Somewhat support 6% 12% 3% 4% 10% 14% 9% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 5% 3% 9% 5% Somewhat do not support 39% 6% 8% 1% 0% 11% 4% 6% 0% 11% 12% 11% 12% 6% 7% 6% Completely do not support 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 1% 2% DK NA 22

23 Support for joining NATO whole sample Do you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership? 23

24 Support for joining NATO by entity Do you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership? 24

25 Support for joining NATO by ethnicity Do you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership? 25

26 Support for joining NATO by demography Do you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership? Gender Age Education Working status Occupation Whole sample Male Female Primary school Secondary school High school-faculty Employed Unemployed Pupil-student Retired Management and expert Clerk Worker Other 44% 45% 44% 43% 40% 49% 46% 48% 42% 49% 44% 40% 43% 50% 51% 50% 43% 38% Completely support 24% 23% 26% 26% 28% 20% 24% 26% 23% 26% 26% 24% 24% 21% 25% 29% 24% 16% 8% 9% 7% 9% 10% 8% 5% 3% 10% 8% 11% 7% 6% 4% 7% 6% 9% 14% 19% 22% 17% 20% 20% 19% 18% 16% 21% 15% 17% 21% 24% 19% 14% 15% 20% 26% Somewhat support Somewhat do not support Completely do not support 4% 1% 7% 2% 3% 4% 8% 7% 4% 3% 1% 7% 2% 6% 3% 1% 3% 6% DK NA 26

27 Support for joining NATO by geography Do you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership? Type of Region Entity settlement Nationality Personal income Whole sample Bihac region Srednja Bosna region Hercegovina region 44% 32% 60% 52% North RS & Brcko East RS FBIH 63% RS District Brcko Rural Urban Bosniak Croat 44% 42% 47% 61% 64% Serb Other No income Up to 300 KM KM KM 801 and more KM NA/DK 37% 40% 43% 41% 37% 56% 50% 12% 12% 12% 16% Completely support 24% 27% 34% 36% 27% 10% 26% 21% 31% 23% 25% 25% 28% 21% 30% 26% 24% 20% 33% 24% 22% Somewhat support 8% 17% 2% 10% 18% 7% 5% 14% 6% 10% 7% 4% 6% 13% 12% 6% 7% 9% 10% 10% 8% 61% 40% 47% 44% 19% 21% 15% 21% 18% 17% 24% 18% 25% 1% 2% 4% 5% 3% 16% 10% 18% 4% 2% 3% 1% 4% 10% 3% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 0% 6% 3% 5% 8% 5% 3% 1% 3% Somewhat do not support Completely do not support DKNA 27

28 Support joining of BiH to NATO by party preferences Do you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership? Whole sample 44% SNSD 14% SDP SDA 66% 55% SDS 8% HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SBB BiH 60% 64% 68% 49% PDP RS 13% NS RADOM ZA BOLJITAK NAŠA STRANKA 64% 62% SRS RS 18% HDZ 1990 Other Don t want to say 41% 40% 50% Completely support 24% 21% 26% 28% 20% 26% 18% 26% 43% 8% 16% 22% 8% 54% 26% 23% Somewhat support 8% 14% 46% 4% 6% 12% 9% 9% 49% 0% 5% 9% 4% 0% 71% 20% 49% 6% 10% 7% Somewhat do not support 19% 2% 7% 5% 2% 4% 2% 10% 16% 0% 21% 14% Completely do not support 4% 5% 2% 4% 11% 0% 7% 2% 0% 0% 5% 0% 5% 0% 2% 6% DK NA 28

29 General issues right wrong direction Government performance EU / NATO integration Voting preferences among likely voters Opinions on BiH territorial organization Policy issues 29

30 Likely voters in the October 2010 elections Previous elections (only those who could vote) If general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote? 30

31 Likely voters by entity and ethnicity If general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote? FBIH 56% RS 47% District Brcko Bosniak 54% Croat 64% Serb 46% Other 50% 17% certainly vote 23% 30% 52% probably vote 25% 23% 30% 25% 7% 11% 22% probably would not vote 7% 4% 11% 11% 10% 9% 9% certainly would not vote 10% 5% 11% 10% 4% 2% 0% DK NA 4% 3% 3% 3% 31

32 Closest political option When taken all into account, what political parties represent the political option that is closest to you? 32

33 Reasons to vote for a political party What are the two main reasons why you would vote for a political party? 33

34 Ratings Second choice by party preferences (only FBiH) If you somehow decided to vote for another political party, for which party would you vote? SDP STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SDA NAŠA STRANKA second choice SBB BIH NSRZB HDZ 1990 HDZ DK NK NONE OTHER 0% 10% 6% 7% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% 29% 17% 14% SDP 16% 12% 8% 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 29% 0% 16% 0% 7% 19% 1% 10% 2% 0% 0% 33% 19% 4% 25% 20% 18% 17% 17% 10% SDA HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH First choice 17% 9% 0% 11% 9% 11% 0% 0% 0% 10% 18% 15% BPS 19% 0% 20% 7% 4% 0% 2% 0% 0% 11% 12% 25% SBB BIH 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 33% 6% 28% HDZ % 6% 7% 6% 2% 0% 0% 8% 6% 15% 3% 40% NSRZB 41% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 16% 13% 28% NAŠA STRANKA 15% 3% 9% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 6% 25% 13% 19% 89% OTHER 3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 3% DK NK 34

35 Ratings second choice (only RS) by party preferences (only RS) If you somehow decided to vote for another political party, for which party would you vote? Second choice SDS PDP RS SNSD 41% NAŠA STRANKA SRS SDP Do not want to say Other None 15% 19% 19% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% PDP RS 0% 10% 19% 14% 8% 1% 21% 0% 12% 20% 21% 19% 28% 20% SDS First choice 34% 0% 0% 27% 4% 2% 10% 12% 10% SNSD 0% 0% 0% 0% SRS 35

36 General issues right wrong direction Government performance EU / NATO integration Voting preferences among likely voters Opinions on BiH s territorial arrangements Policy issues 36

37 Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? - whole sample 37

38 Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? - by entity 38

39 Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? - by ethnicity 39

40 Whole sample Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? by party preference FBIH RS District Brcko SNSD SDP SDA SDS HDZ STRANKA ZA BIH BPS SBB BIH PDP RS NSRZB NAŠA STRANKA SRS HDZ 1990 other Don t want to say 40% 60% 64% 64% 6% 11% 7% 6% 27% 52% 76% 71% 10% 54% 55% 6% 8% 31% 44% Entities should be abolished as the level of government 45% 40% 42% 23% 10% 33% 35% 14% 18% 4% 11% 18% 3% 3% 43% 39% 51% 5% 7% 11% 7% 13% 0% 11% 4% 0% 1% 32% 11% 9% 30% 53% 7% 29% 22% 13% 16% 7% Arrangement of the state should remain unchanged Bosnia and Herzegovina should be divided into three independent States 22% 11% 13% 7% 7% 15% 12% 4% 9% 22% 6% 17% 2% 18% 11% 11% 10% 14% 11% 44% 54% 8% 9% 6% 5% 8% 5% 2% 3% 19% 0% 2% 3% 5% 11% 5% 0% 5% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4% 15% 6% 5% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 3% 8% Bosnia and Herzegovina should be divided into up to 5 or 6 economic regions, which should have a great deal of autonomy Third, Croatian entity should be formed DK NA 40

41 General issues right wrong direction Government performance EU / NATO integration Voting preferences among likely voters Opinions on BiH territorial organization Policy issues 41

42 When you think of the BiH economy, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues? 42

43 When you think of social sector reforms, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues? 43

44 When you think of corruption and organized crime, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues? 44

45 When you think of education system reforms, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues? 45

46 In your opinion, what is the bigger priority for the RS at the moment? only RS respondents 46