PAF 101 Module 4, Lecture 6. "Spoon-feeding, in the long run, teaches nothing but the shape of the spoon." ~EM Forster

Transcription

1 PAF 101 Module 4, Lecture 6 "Spoon-feeding, in the long run, teaches nothing but the shape of the spoon." ~EM Forster

2 Class Agenda Announcements Dale Carnegie Competition Debriefing Assignment for Next Class

3 Competition Points Winners Losers As of 4/2/18 Group # Points

4 Extra Credit Opportunity Attend a lecture by a job candidate for the PAF Office Who: Gabel Taggart, from Arizona State University When: Today, Monday 4/2 Time: 3-3:50 Where: Eggers 060

5 Competition Results Group 15 won and got 5 points. The following groups were disqualified and received no points: Groups 3 and 16 for leaving exercises blank Group 7 was especially disqualified for leaving TWO WHOLE PAGES BLANK All other groups got 3 points.

6 Competition Debriefing Exercises Now get ready for more points! You will have the opportunity to gain more points awarded by Coplin. This competition is not rigged, despite what many of you think.

7 Module 4 Debriefing Instructions - We will call one representative from your group - It is possible for your group to be called on more than once, but not likely. - Confer with your group quietly so that you don t give away the answers to other groups.

8 Module 4 Competition Problem: The dropout rate at Syracuse University in Syracuse, New York is too high. Proposed Policy: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000.

9 Competition Data School Year First Year Drop Out Rate % % % e 9.1% Source: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment

10 Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 State your societal problem here (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Department of Public Safety

11 Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 State your societal problem here (make sure to specify geographic location): Drop out rates Bullet 1: Not stated as a societal problem. No geographic location. No too much/too little Restate the proposed policy here to deal with this societal problem and who enacts it here: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000. This will be enacted by the Syracuse University Board of Trustees. Bullet 2: Correct Identify the primary unit responsible for implementing this policy: Syracuse University Department of Public Safety Bullet 3: Wrong primary unit. DPS does not play a role in implementing financial policy

12 Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. List and explain the most significant benefit here: SU will increase revenue Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. List and explain the most significant cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot.

13 Exercise 7.1 and 7.2 List the most significant benefit and cost of the proposed policy and assign a rating of significance of 1, 2, or 3 to each item. Justify each rating you have assigned in no more than two sentences. List and explain the most significant benefit here: SU will increase revenue Problem 1: Most obvious benefit not listed The dropout rate will decrease. Rating (1-3): 2 Justification for rating: SU is always looking for more money. Problem 2: Incorrect justification. Should justify WHY you chose the rating (1, 2, 3) rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. List and explain the most significant cost here: SU spends more money on financial aid Rating (1-3): 1 Justification for rating: This will not cost a lot. Problem 3: Same as Problem 2. Doesn t justify rating. Also, this justification is not true because spending more money would cost more. Should be: This should have a rating of 2 because the high cost is a burden on the university. Important to SU, but not the most important cost.

14 Exercise 8.1B Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Time Period Number of [Variable] % Professor Coplin Source or Rationale for estimation % Professor Coplin % Professor Coplin 2017e 9.1% Because the bar, Chuck s, is closing.

15 Exercise 8.1B Provide data for four years on a variable measuring your societal problem. Refer to Chapter 8. Drop Out Rate Problem 2: Incomplete title. Should say: Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University ( e) Time Period e e Number of Source or Rationale for estimation [Variable] Problem 3: No specific variable 7.6% Professor Coplin within the brackets. Should be: Percentage of Drop Outs 8.3% Professor Coplin 9.9% Professor Coplin 9.1% Because Chuck s is closing Problem 4: Incorrect rationalization. A bar closing will not bring down drop out rates by.8% Problem 1: Should be in academic years and indicate which years are estimate.

16 Exercise 8.2A School Year Drop Out Rate % % % e 9.1% Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [( )/9.9] x 100 = -8.1%

17 Exercise 8.2A School Year Drop Out Rate % % % e 9.1% Using the formula presented in Chapter 8, calculate the percent change between the first and second year of the data presented in the beginning of this competition. Write the percent change here: -8.1% Show the original formula and your calculations here: [(new figure-old figure)/old figure] x 100 = percent change [( )/9.9] x 100 = -8.1% Problem 1: APPLIES TO BOTH BULLETS! Incorrect calculation. Uses data points for the last two years instead of the first two years. Correct Calculation: [( ) / 7.6] X 100 = 9.2%

18 Exercise 8.3 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: o First year: o Second year: o Third year: Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years.

19 Exercise 8.3 State what three years for which you would set your benchmark for to compare your baseline data. Briefly indicate why you have chosen those years. State what three years you set your benchmark for here: o First year: Bullet 1: Incorrect spacing of o Second year: years. Need consistent intervals. o Third year: Briefly justify here: Because those were the next three years. Bullet 2: Poor justification. Should talk about the expected rapidness/slowness of the policy s effect and possibly how the years will show how steadily/dramatically changes will occur.

20 Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in % 10.0% 8.0% 7.6% 8.3% 9.9% 9.1% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% e f f Years Historical Baseline

21 Exercise 8.4 (Graph) Place a trend line graph below that displays your historical data and your baseline forecast for the three years selected in 8.3. Percentage of First Year Drop Outs 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Historical and Forecast Graph for First Year Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University: f 7.6% % % Historical 9.1% e f Academic Years Baseline Source: Syracuse University Department of Institutional Research 9.9% 10.5% 10.7% f Problems: 1. No y-axis title 2. Missing data labels 3. No title 4. Only forecasted 2 years (need 3) 5. No source 6. Include e for estimates and f for forecasts *DISCLAIMER: Do not make your graph in your module red!!!!!!!!!!!!!

22 Exercise 8.4 (Justification) Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here: The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows an increase in the dropout rate. Assume the pattern will be similar to the years you are forecasting.

23 Exercise 8.4 (Justification) Write a clear justification of your forecast by using the ideas discussed in 8.4 of the chapter here: The forecast follows the same pattern as the historical data that shows an increase in the dropout rate. Assume the pattern will be similar to the years you are forecasting (Coplin, 2017, p. 99). Problem 1: Missing internal citation

24 A Note Regarding 8.4: Do not forget to BRIEFLY cite a player to justify your forecast Also need to cite the textbook Use pages for this section Must internally cite both the sources

25 Helpful Hints Be sure to justify the rating (1, 2, 3) you give the benefit or cost rather than why the benefit or cost is listed. Benchmarks can only be set for the years AFTER the policy is implemented. Label forecasted and estimated data points! Be realistic with your benchmarks. Just because a policy is implemented does not mean a societal problem will be ameliorated. Put a title on data charts (Ex. 8.1)

26 For Next Class Complete Module Newsletter Homework for next class, Wednesday 4/4 or lose 5 points Module 4 due 4/6