Living Costs and Food Survey and Household Finance Survey Update and developments

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1 Living Costs and Food Survey and Household Finance Survey Update and developments Jo Bulman, LCF Survey Manager Steven Dunstan, HFS Transformation Lead Social Survey Division Claudia Wells, Head of Household Income and Expenditure Analysis Branch

2 Overview Recent developments for LCF Family Spending Progress against recommendations from the LCF National Statistics Quality Review Progress and future plans for ONS s household finance surveys and statistics Discussion Feedback on LCF User requirements for HFS

3 Uses of LCF Retail Prices Index & Consumer Prices Index Spending patterns of population Household expenditure for GDP Effect of taxes and benefits Food consumption and nutrition

4 Annual publication- Family Spending 2015/16 Edition Shorter summary bulletin & data tables Efficiency Timeliness Clarity of key points Content Economic context Essential spending Housing Non-essential spending Topical interest Imbedded interactive tools

5 Digital content

6 Annual publication- Family Spending Micro datasets on the UK Data Service- end July Including a well-being weight 2016/17 Edition 18 th January 2018 (provisional) Child diary analysis Median expenditure (in addition to mean) Incorporating UK Time Use Survey Feedback welcome Contents of the 2015/16 bulletin Proposed contents for 2016/17 bulletin Plans to use LCF well-being data?

7 National Statistics Quality Review Projects in progress: Development of weighting methodology Review of incentives Review of paper diary and length Analysis of under-reporting Questionnaire development Review international use of store scanner data Liaison with other National Statistics Institutes

8 HFS Transformation - aims To outline progress to date and future plans for ONS s household finance surveys and statistics. To facilitate further understanding of user requirements for LCF/HFS, including any gaps / weaknesses. To help identify areas of common interest regarding the development of household consumption / finance statistics.

9 Overview A summary of the Household Finance Surveys as is Recent developments for LCF / HFS Longer term developments Discussion - Feedback on plans - User requirements

10 Household Finance Surveys Living Costs & Food Survey (LCF) Survey on Living Conditions (SLC) Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) Unit: Survey sample of private households representative of UK (WAS GB) Mode: Face-to-face Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing Sample: Stratified 2 stage sampling off PAF: postcode sectors selected as primary sampling unit (PSU) - clusters Addresses within sectors/clusters selected as secondary unit Content: Income / tax (employment, property, investments, benefits, pensions) Housing (accommodation, tenure, mortgages, costs (except WAS)) Economic status, occupation, industry, hours worked Basic demographics, education, health Pension contributions Exclusive: Detailed expenditure Exclusive: Rotating module; Longitudinal 6 waves (annual) Exclusive: Detailed wealth & debt, financial planning; Longitudinal (biennial)

11 Where we want to be Greater coherence / thematic approach Expenditure Joint analysis of income, consumption and wealth possible Best use of administrative data Admin data Core (including labour, income, housing, saving) Wealth Other user needs (e.g. living conditions) Data available longitudinally High quality data for analysis of income distributions (including top and bottom) Responsive to user requirements Precise regional estimates Timely estimates Make use of new technology and mixed mode data collection Reduced costs and respondent burden

12 Household Finance Surveys achieved household sample size per annum (approx.) 5K HHs ~ 4K E&W ~ 900 Sc ~150 NI 12K HHs ~ 11K E&W ~ 900 Sc ~ 300 NI Living Costs and Food (UK) Survey on Living Conditions (UK) 17K HHs ~ 15K E&W ~ 2K Sc ~ 500 NI LCF + SLC ~ 17K HHs LCF + SLC + WAS? ~ 27K HHs 10K HHs GB Wealth and Assets Survey (GB)

13 Key current usage LCF SLC Intra-Governmental Tax and Benefits Model; Effect of Tax and Benefits (ETB); Household Disposable Income and Inequality (HDII); National Accounts Consumption Expenditure; Informs Basket of Goods and (in part) weights for price inflation indices; Nutrition; Fuel Poverty; Comparable statistics with other EU countries Low income and Social Exclusion including transitions over time; Comparable statistics with other EU countries WAS Estimates of wealth and wealth inequality; Exposure to debt; attitudes to saving / debt; monitoring pensions up-take

14 Progress and short-terms plans Living Costs and Food Survey Survey on Living Conditions Integrated / joint sample Questionnaire harmonisation on key economic activity, income and living conditions questions Working towards single outputs from LCF, SLC combined 2017 datasets Household Finance Survey: Joint / single outputs for household finance statistics Wealth and Assets Survey Exploring joint sampling with LCF/SLC Questionnaire change proposals to harmonise with LCF/SLC concepts Large sample for precise UK and Regional statistics Common methods Exploring improvements to sampling by using AddressBase, Council Tax data Exploring improvements to estimation by using combined samples, LFS and admin sources

15 LCF/SLC combined dataset CORE 17K 1. Basic demographics and household structure 2. Economic activity status, occupation, industry, hours worked, number of jobs and type 3. Income and tax from: employment (inc company cars), property, investments 4. Income from state pension, benefits and tax credits 5. Pension income and contributions 6. Highest level of education achieved 7. Tenure, number of rooms, rent, mortgages, utility bills, insurance 8. Health general / limiting illness 9. Material deprivation 10. Well-being 11. Consumption Expenditure module - 5K All expenditure (inc. weights and measures for food & drink) Living conditions module 12K 1. Trailer module (2017) Wealth, Consumption, Child health 2. Hours of child care 3. Current Education

16 EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions AROPE Non-AROPE EU-SILC SLC Wave 1-6 W5 W6 W5 W6 W5 W6 W5 W6 W5 W6 W5 SLC Wave 1-6 W4 W3 W4 W3 W4 W4 W4 W4 W3 W3 W3 W3 LCF W2 W2 W2 W2 W2 W2 W1 W1 W1 W1 W Data: ONS producing the cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets using SLC waves 1-5 Testing AROPE based on LCF and SLC waves 1-5 precision levels for NUTS2 geographies 2018 Data: Extending SLC to 6 waves and use of all waves for cross-sectional dataset production W1

17 Household Disposable Income and Inequality (HDII) and Effects of Taxes and Benefits (ETB) /18 Household Disposable Income and Inequality - Impact analysis of using combined LCF/SLC - Mean and Median disposable income - Analysis of direct taxes and cash benefits - GINIs for original, gross and disposable income - Lower level geographic breakdowns Research outputs - Investigate the production of synthetic consumption/expenditure data for SLC cases using imputation - Statistical matching of LCF/SLC to WAS using high level consumption - Feasibility of using this data for analysis of income, consumption and wealth

18 Additional releases during 2017/18 Analysis of expenditure based poverty measures - Release date: Winter Compare expenditure distributions with income distribution and growth, characteristics of households towards the bottom of the income distribution but towards the top of the expenditure distribution and analysis of well-being Distribution analysis within the National Accounts Framework - Release date: After Blue Book Update work previous released by ONS and OCED

19 Future developments for HFS Access to administrative / non-survey data: DWP Benefits HMRC RTI, SA, Tax Credit data Regulators (FCA, Pensions) Local Authority Data (e.g. Council Tax) Product databases (scanner data) Mapping administrative data to statistical concepts (e.g. disposable income)

20 Online capability Tests planned for the: ONS Opinions Survey Nov17 Apr18 Labour Force Survey: Online take-up test Jun/Sep 17, Online retention test - Jan 2018 Mixed mode test - Sep 2018 Survey on Living Conditions 2019 Living Costs and Food ongoing research into a digital diary Wider engagement with research community (inc. USoc)

21 Discussion What are the key areas of interest now and in the future for LCF/HFS (including publication plans)? What are the limitations / gaps in data currently available? How important is it to know about income, consumption, wealth/debt for the same individuals/ households? How important is it to understand transitions at a person/household level e.g. changes in activity status, income/consumption and over what period?