Overview of industry global, national and Michigan 2009 Michigan tourism year-in-review 2010 Michigan tourism forecast

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1 OUTLINE Overview of industry global, national and Michigan 2009 Michigan tourism year-in-review 2010 Michigan tourism forecast Driving Tourism 2010, The Michigan Governor s Conference May 6-7, 2010, Mackinac Island, MI Dr. Sarah Nicholls and Dr. Dan McCole Department of Community, Agriculture, Recreation and Resource Studies Michigan State University 1 2 TOURISM INDUSTRY ON THE GLOBAL LEVEL (I) The Travel & Tourism Economy (TTE) contracted by 4.8% in 2009 The TTE is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2010 and 3.2% in 2011; but longer term prospects remain good, with an average growth rate of 4.4% per annum projected through 2020 The contribution of Travel & Tourism to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to rise from 9.2% (US$5,751bn) in 2010 to 9.6% (US$11,151bn) by 2020 The contribution of the TTE to employment is expected to rise from 235,758,000 jobs in 2009 (8.1% of total employment, or 1 in every 12.3 jobs) to 303,019,000 jobs (9.2% of total employment or 1 in every 10.9 jobs) by Source: World Travel & Tourism Council TOURISM INDUSTRY ON THE GLOBAL LEVEL (II) TOURISM INDUSTRY ON THE GLOBAL LEVEL (II) Tourism in million international tourism arrivals, decline of 4.3% over 2008 Q1-10%, Q2-7%, Q3-2%, Q4 +2% All world regions saw decline except Africa (+3.0%) Europe -5.6%, North America -5.7% International tourism receipts down 5.8% While this is unquestionably a disappointing result for an industry accustomed to continuous growth, it can also be interpreted as a sign of comparative resilience given the extremely difficult economic environment Forecast for 2010 International tourism arrivals projected to increase 3-4% in 2010 Positives Global economy recovering quicker than expected, business and consumer confidence have picked up, pent-up tourism demand Negatives Unemployment = key challenge, US economy still fragile, impact of withdrawal of stimulus measures, volatility of oil prices, continuing security threats 2010 will be characterized by a still quite rough business environment for the tourism sector as revenues and yields are expected to recover at a slower pace than travel volumes Source: UNWTO 5 Source: UNWTO 6 1

TOURISM INDUSTRY ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL (II) TOURISM INDUSTRY IN MICHIGAN 2009: The Most Difficult Year for US Travel and Tourism Industries Since 9/11 International visitors = 54.

2 TOURISM INDUSTRY ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL (II) TOURISM INDUSTRY IN MICHIGAN 2009: The Most Difficult Year for US Travel and Tourism Industries Since 9/11 International visitors = 54.9 million (down 5%) International visitor spending = $121.1 billion (down record 15%) Total travel + tourism employment down 5% (record decline) However, 2009 was the 21 st consecutive year that the travel and tourism industry generated a balance of trade surplus in the US (of $22 billion, down $7 billion on 2008) In 2008: Total stays down 8.9% Business stays down 18.5%, leisure stays down 4.2% Resident stays down 3.3%, non-resident down 20.6% Direct travel expenditures equaled $16.3 billion (down 9.9%) Resident spending down 5.7% Non-resident spending down 14.0% Source: U.S. Office of Travel and Tourism Industries (OTTI), 7 Source: D.K. Shifflet, via Travel MI/Michigan Economic Development Corporation. 8 MICHIGAN TOURISM: A LOOK BACK AT THE YEAR 2009 Weather Traffic counts, bridge crossings and gas prices Sales and use tax Visits to attractions Hotel occupancy Assessments Consumer confidence Comerica Bank MI Tourism Index 9 10 THE WEATHER MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: TOTAL PRECIPITATION BY SEASON Spring: March, April, May Summer: June, July, August Fall: September, October, November Winter: December, January, February 11 Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center. 12 2

Percentage change Percentage change MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SEASON MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 WEATHER BY MONTH Spring: March,

Annual Changes: Precip. - 6.2% Temp. - 0.

3 Percentage change Percentage change MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SEASON MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 WEATHER BY MONTH Spring: March, April, May Summer: June, July, August Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fall: September, October, November Winter: December, January, February 13 Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Annual Changes: Precip % Temp % 14 TRAFFIC, BRIDGE CROSSINGS & GAS MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 HIGHWAY TRAFFIC AND WELCOME CENTER VISITOR COUNTS 10% 5% Welcome Center Visitor Counts Traffic Counts 0% -5% -10% -15% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual Change: 15 Source: MI Department of Transportation, MEDC. Traffic - 0.9% Welcome Centers - 4.3% 16 MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 WEATHER AND TRAFFIC MICHIGAN HIGHWAY TRAFFIC COUNTS YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% Precipitation Temperature Traffic Counts Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 25% 0% -25% -50% No change -75% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Annual Changes: Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center; Michigan Department of Transportation. Precip % Temp % Traffic - 0.9% Source: Michigan Department of Transportation. 18 3

Percentage change MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 MONTHLY MACKINAC BRIDGE CROSSINGS MICHIGAN

Annual Change: + 4.9% 19 Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority; Midwestern Regional Climate Center.

5% 20 MACKINAC BRIDGE TRAFFIC COUNTS YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2002

21 MACKINAC BRIDGE TRAFFIC COUNTS YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE Year Count (million) % from prev.

678 4.0% 2002 4.733 + 1.2% 1993 3.993 8.6% 2003 4.529-4.3% 1994 4.333 8.5% 2004 4.427-2.2% 1995 4.557 5.2% 2005 4.

836-1.1% 2009 3.877 + 4.9% Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority.

4 Percentage change MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 MONTHLY MACKINAC BRIDGE CROSSINGS MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 WEATHER & MACKINAC BRIDGE CROSSINGS Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority. Annual Change: + 4.9% 19 Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority; Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Annual Change: Bridge + 4.9% Precip % Temp % 20 MACKINAC BRIDGE TRAFFIC COUNTS YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority. 21 MACKINAC BRIDGE TRAFFIC COUNTS YEAR-TO-YEAR CHANGE Year Count (million) % from prev. year Year Count (million) % from prev. year % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority. 22 TRENDS IN TRAFFIC COUNTS ON SELECTED MICHIGAN BRIDGES MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 GAS PRICES 60% 50% 40% Gas Prices 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Source: Mackinac Bridge Authority; Blue Water Bridge Authority. 23 Source: AAA Michigan. Annual Change: % 24 4

5 Percentage change Percentage change MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 TRAFFIC, BRIDGE CROSSINGS & GAS PRICES SALES & USE TAX 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Traffic Counts Gas Bridge Crossings Annual Changes: Traffic - 0.9% Gas % Bridge + 4.9% -50% Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Source: Michigan Department of Transportation; AAA Michigan; Mackinac Bridge Authority MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 MONTHLY CHANGES IN HOSPITALITY TAXES (SIC 701) VISITS TO ATTRACTIONS 30% Sales Taxes Use Taxes 10% Sales & Use Taxes -10% -30% -50% Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual Changes: Source: Michigan Department of Treasury, Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis. Sales % Use - 7.5% Sales & Use % MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 vs TOURISM ACTIVITY INDICATORS HOTEL OCCUPANCY -10% 0% 10% 20% 15.60% Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore 12.40% Pictured Rocks National Lakeshore 9.00% The Henry Ford 4.90% The Mackinac Bridge 3.90% All U.S. National Parks -1% All MI State Parks Percentage change Sources: The Henry Ford; Mackinac Bridge Authority; MI DNRE; US National Park Service

Percentage change Occupancy Rate (%) HOTEL OCCUPANCY: US/MICHIGAN/DETROIT 2000-2009 MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS 2009 VS 2008 HOTEL DATA 70% 66.

7% Michigan -8.0% -5.2% -12.8% Detroit -12.8% -9.8% -21.4% 50% 53.9% 52.3% 52.8% 53.4% 53.9% 53.7% 52.0% 48.0% 47.

6 Percentage change Occupancy Rate (%) HOTEL OCCUPANCY: US/MICHIGAN/DETROIT MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS 2009 VS 2008 HOTEL DATA 70% 66.6% Detroit Michigan Occupancy ADR RevPAR 65% 60% 55% 63.7% 60.3% 58.9% 56.0% 59.8% US 61.3% 59.1% 59.0% 56.1% 55.8% 54.1% 63.1% 63.4% 57.0% 56.9% 63.2% 58.3% 60.4% 55.3% 55.1% USA -8.7% -8.8% -16.7% Michigan -8.0% -5.2% -12.8% Detroit -12.8% -9.8% -21.4% 50% 53.9% 52.3% 52.8% 53.4% 53.9% 53.7% 52.0% 48.0% 47.5% 45% Source: Smith Travel Research, Source: Smith Travel Research, ASSESSMENTS MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 PERCENT CHANGE IN ASSESSMENTS AND PROPERTIES 10% 5% 3.4% Assessments # of Properties 0% 0.1% -5% -2.4% -1.0% -10% -7.3% -8.2% -15% -14.8% -13.8% -20% U.P. N.L.P. S.L.P. Statewide CVBs Responding: 33 Source: 2010 Dept. of CARRS Survey of Assessments. UP: 3, NLP: 10, SLP: 13 (26). 34 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY INDICATORS: 2009 VS 2008 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX Annual Change: 35 Source: The Conference Board, % 36 6

SUMMARY OF MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY 2009 VS 2008 INDICATORS COMERICA BANK MICHIGAN TOURISM INDEX, Q1 2000 Q1 2010 Weather: 2009 was drier ( 6.2%) and very slightly cooler ( 0.

7 SUMMARY OF MICHIGAN TOURISM INDUSTRY 2009 VS 2008 INDICATORS COMERICA BANK MICHIGAN TOURISM INDEX, Q Q Weather: 2009 was drier ( 6.2%) and very slightly cooler ( 0.5%) than 2008 Travel activity: mixed traffic counts down 0.9% Mackinac Bridge crossings up 4.9% Gas prices: down 28.12% Sales and use tax: down 13.6% Visits to attractions: almost all up Hotel occupancy: down 8% (down 12.8% in Detroit) Assessments: down 13.8% Consumer confidence: up 22.07% Comerica Bank s Michigan Tourism Index Comerica s Michigan Tourism Index fell in the first quarter of 2010 from the fourth quarter of 2009 (from 95 to 91) Our index fell in the first quarter, paying back some of the unexpectedly large surge in the fourth quarter index. Although the index is down from recent highs, the generally improving trend reflected in the index should be maintained over the course of the year, as personal and business discretionary spending continue to improve. - Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank DEVELOPING THE FORECAST Then and Now Past Reliance on long term data trends Current Situation Past trends are less meaningful Greater need for subjective judgment Greater weight to softer indicators (e.g., Consumer Confidence)

8 Percentage Percentage change The Brain Trust HOW ACCURATE WERE MSU S PROJECTIONS FOR MICHIGAN TOURISM IN 2008 & 2009? Participants in 2010 Brain Trust meeting: Teresa Herbowicz Dr. Don Holecek Lori Langone Dr. Dan McCole George Moroz Dave Morris Dr. Sarah Nicholls Michael O Callaghan Tracy Padot Dr. Robert Richardson Dr. Annie Rummel Bill Sheffer Dr. Christine Vogt Travel volume Travel prices Travel spending Projected by MSU Actual data Projected by MSU Actual data - 2% - 6.2% - 3-4% - 0.9% + 3-4% + 3.2% - 1-2% -1.4% 0% + 0.5% - 3-4% % 43 Source: MSU Department of CARRS; Michigan Department of Transportation; Michigan Department of Treasury. 44 HOW ACCURATE WERE MSU S PROJECTIONS FOR MICHIGAN TOURISM OVER THE YEARS? WHY THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FORECAST AND ACTUAL? 9% 5% 1% -3% -7% -11% -15% 9/11 Great Recession Projected travel spending Recorded travel spending Source: MSU Department of CARRS; Michigan Department of Treasury. 45 Low gas prices Lack of confidence in financial situation 230,000 lost jobs in Michigan Anxiety Tourists selected cheaper alternatives Tourism industry offered great deals Friends and family Business travel 46 TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Currency Exchange Rates p 2011p -2.4 GROWTH OF REAL GDP - UNITED STATES p = projected Per US$1 May March % change US $ is Value in 2000 Canada % Weaker 1.46 Euro % Weaker n.a. Pound % Weaker 0.64 Peso % Weaker 9.36 Yen % Weaker FRB Broad Index (Mar.) % Weaker Source: RSQE - University of Michigan. 47 Source: Currencies - Federal Reserve Bank. 48 8

TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Unemployment U.S. 2010 9.7% (Mar) 2009 % change 8.6% (Mar) + 13% 14.1% (Mar) 12.6% (Mar) Michigan* + 12% TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Housing U.S. Foreclosures up 16% in 1 st quarter Residential construction fell 11% in 1 st quarter Home sales index up 5.

9 TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Unemployment U.S % (Mar) 2009 % change 8.6% (Mar) + 13% 14.1% (Mar) 12.6% (Mar) Michigan* + 12% TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Housing U.S. Foreclosures up 16% in 1 st quarter Residential construction fell 11% in 1 st quarter Home sales index up 5.3% in March (+8.3% in Feb) Tax incentives have helped (but have expired) Mortgage modification programs are increasing 2010 Forecast: - 7.2% (prices) * Lowest unemployment rate in Michigan was 3.2% in March 2000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Michigan Department of Labor & Economic Growth. 49 Source: Realtor.org 50 TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Stock Market May 4, 2008 May 4, 2009 Dow Jones Industrial Avg. 12,638 Nasdaq Composite 2,522 S&P 500 1,400 6,594 1, May 4, ,926 2,424 1,173 TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Consumer Confidence Index (Apr) 2009 % change 39.2 (Apr) + 47% 12-month change + 4, % change (year-to-year) % % % Record highs Oct 07: 14,164 Mar 00: 5,048 Oct 07: 1,565 Source: The Wall Street Journal. 51 Source: The Conference Board 52 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX U.S. RESIDENTS Summary US Economy Current Reading: 57.9 Recession is over (GDP is up) Stocks have rebounded Corporate profits are up Manufacturing increasing Consumer spending is improving 162,000 new jobs in March But still too few jobs Over 8 million jobs lost in 2 years Unemployment is still at 9.7% Source: The Conference Board

10 US Tourism Industry WHAT THEY RE SAYING Business travel rebound has been slower than expected. People prioritizing experiences over consumer goods (assuming they get a deal) Certain areas (i.e., Luxury) rebounding faster than expected Technology: Online bookings and Social Media Affluent Gen X and Gen Y are leading the recovery (PricewaterhouseCoopers and Retail Forward) "There is no question that the worst is behind us. Where we were a year ago in terms of financial stress, we're through it, but there's been a lot of damage done. The recovery that we are in the midst of is a fragile one." - Adam Sacks, Managing Director of Tourism Economics "It's not going to get any worse, but 'improving' is a stretch. - Mark Lomanno, President of Smith Travel Research GROWTH OF REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME UNITED STATES VERSUS MICHIGAN Michigan 57 Source: RSQE - University of Michigan. p = projected as of November GROWTH OF REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME UNITED STATES VERSUS MICHIGAN GASOLINE PRICES (Unleaded regular) Current: $2.93(5/4/10) Last Year: $2.12(5/4/09) Projected Peak: $3.25 (Summer 2010) Source: RSQE - University of Michigan. p = projected as of November Source: AAA Michigan; GasBuddy.com 60 10

TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Housing Michigan MI housing prices down 11.1% since last year and 31.

rise) UNEMPLOYMENT RATES City 2010 Price Forecast Detroit +21.5% Grand Rapids +8.4% Lansing +6.6% Marquette +6.

Employment, 2001-2008 Change in Private Employment, 2001-2008 Higher Education Lower Education Higher Education Lower Education US MI US MI US MI

3% High wage 3.3% -8.2% -3.7% -28.3% Middle wage 11.8% 7.0% -4.3% -22.7% Middle wage 11.8% 7.0% -4.3% -22.7% Low wage 21.2% 16.8% 5.0% -5.

64 Michigan Economy Michigan - Some Good News Industrial states tend to climb out of recessions faster Michigan lost over 855,500 jobs since 2000

11 TRENDS IN FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE TRAVEL Housing Michigan MI housing prices down 11.1% since last year and 31.5% since 2006 Foreclosures make up nearly ½ of all sales Home sales projected to improve throughout 2010 Prices stabilizing (and even starting to rise) UNEMPLOYMENT RATES City 2010 Price Forecast Detroit +21.5% Grand Rapids +8.4% Lansing +6.6% Marquette +6.4% p = projected as of November 2006 Source: Housing Predictor 61 Source: Michigan Department of Labor & Economic Growth 62 Change in Private Employment, Change in Private Employment, Higher Education Lower Education Higher Education Lower Education US MI US MI US MI US MI Total private employment 7.8% -0.5% 1.4% -14.2% Total private employment 7.8% -0.5% 1.4% -14.2% High wage 3.3% -8.2% -3.7% -28.3% High wage 3.3% -8.2% -3.7% -28.3% Middle wage 11.8% 7.0% -4.3% -22.7% Middle wage 11.8% 7.0% -4.3% -22.7% Low wage 21.2% 16.8% 5.0% -5.1% Low wage 21.2% 16.8% 5.0% -5.1% Source: RSQE - University of Michigan. 63 Source: RSQE - University of Michigan. 64 Michigan Economy Michigan - Some Good News Industrial states tend to climb out of recessions faster Michigan lost over 855,500 jobs since 2000 (230,000+ in 2009) - (RSQE, 2009) Unemployment still over 14% Loss of high paying jobs (especially for low education workers) Population decrease 4 years in a row (US Census) Auto industry rebounding Potential for green technologies Worst seems to be behind us

THE NEW NORMAL FOR TOURISM THE NEW NORMAL FOR MICHIGAN Spend less Finding bargains is cool again (and technology lets them

Forced opportunity to find new markets And the industry is prepared o Strategic Plan o Pure Michigan Campaign Be creative

12 THE NEW NORMAL FOR TOURISM THE NEW NORMAL FOR MICHIGAN Spend less Finding bargains is cool again (and technology lets them do it) Last minute travel decisions Business travel alternatives Increased role of technology and social media Is it a New Normal or temporary adjustment? Population has decreased 4 straight years Jobs lost that won t come back Many fewer high paying low education jobs The good news THE GOOD NEWS? THE GOOD NEWS? Forced opportunity to find new markets And the industry is prepared o Strategic Plan o Pure Michigan Campaign Be creative The Ships Are Burning FORECAST FOR U.S. TRAVEL IN 2010 Forecast Travel volume Travel volume - International Travel spending Other + 2.5% Business travel +1.9% Leisure travel + 2.8% Overall (includes Canada and Mexico) +1.2% Overseas only % - 1.1% RevPAR (2009: -17.1% ) - 1.4% ADR +1.9% Occupancy 71 Source: United States Travel Association (Annual Travel Forecast).; PKF Hospitality Research; STR 72 12

13 Regional Revenue Projections and Actual Assessments (CVB Survey Results)* MSU GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR MICHIGAN TOURISM IN Projections 2009 Actual 2010 Projections Upper Peninsula 7.7% 7.3% 3.5% Travel volume Traffic counts + 2-3% Northern Lower P. 1.7% 8.2% 4.3% Travel prices Lodging and restaurant price changes / % Southern Lower P. 3.8% 14.8% + 1.5% Travel spending Lodging sales and use tax collections + 3-4% * Not all CVBs reported and results weighted by CVB scale Spending will not be across the board Spending will not be across the board Spending will not be across the board Spending will not be across the board Business Travel Business Travel

14 Spending will not be across the board WHAT THEY RE SAYING The data suggest that leisure travelers will continue to demand excellent value for their travel dollars this coming summer and are likely to be responsive to new promotional incentives expected from airlines, hotels, attractions and cruise lines in the months ahead. - Peter C. Yesawich, Chairman and CEO of Ypartnership. Business Travel I was surprised how far consumers are going to make sure they get the most value for their dollar. They are making sure they are being proactive about asking for discounts. I think they are also looking for travel providers to really step up and add more value into their price. - Beth Caulfield, Editor-in-Chief of AOL Travel THE WILD CARDS CONTACT INFORMATION The Economy Housing (and continued foreclosures) Energy prices Inflation/deflation New normal Disruption in fuel supply and/or gasoline prices back to the high $3 to $4 range Weather variability Terrorism Dr. Sarah Nicholls (nicho210@msu.edu) Dr. Dan McCole (mccoleda@msu.edu) Department of Community, Agriculture, Recreation and Resource Studies (CARRS) Michigan State University 131 Natural Resources Bldg. East Lansing, MI Phone: Fax:

Overview of industry global and national 2010 Michigan tourism year-in-review 2011 Michigan tourism forecast

OUTLINE Overview of industry global and national 2010 Michigan tourism year-in-review 2011 Michigan tourism forecast The Pure Michigan Governor s Conference on Tourism March 20-22, Kalamazoo, MI Dr. Sarah