How has internal migration in Albania affected the receipt of transfers from kinship members?

Transcription

1 How has nternal mgraton n Albana affected the recept of transfers from knshp members? Floran Tomn 1, Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Jessca Hagen-Zanker 2, Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance 1 floran.tomn@maastrchtunversty.nl, Maastrcht Unversty, Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastrcht, The Netherlands 2 jessca.hagenzanker@maastrchtunversty.nl, Maastrcht Unversty, Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastrcht, The Netherlands We would lke to thank Carlo Azzarr, Lex Borghans, Pawel Kaczmarczyk and partcpants of ROA Appled Economcs semnar (Maastrcht Unversty) for helpful comments on an earler draft of ths paper, Dens de Crombrugghe for helpng us wth the emprcal strategy and Fatjola Lubonja, Aulona Htaj, Sllavka Ivet, Elona Koc & Gjylana Muca for research assstance.

2 Abstract Knshp networks play an mportant role provdng economc, socal and emotonal support n everyday lfe. Internal mgraton may put these networks at rsk. Effects of mgraton on prvate transfers are prmarly studed lookng at the mgrant and the famly left behnd. In ths paper we nvestgate how the relocaton of entre households affects the recept of nterhousehold transfers from knshp members. Wll the composton of receved transfers change? Or, wll the sendng relatves be dfferent? We use data from a unque survey n Trana (Albana), to nvestgate fnancal, good, and servce transfers receved by mgrant households. By lookng at frequency of transfers before and after mgraton, we check whether the structure of transfers changes and whether frends have superseded famly as mportant sendng partners. Our emprcal analyss shows that mgraton has sgnfcantly changed the type of transfers receved whle t has also affected the transfer network. We fnd that households receve fewer transfers than before mgraton, but that fnancal transfers ncrease. Frends become ncreasngly more mportant after mgraton, substtutng for transfers from sblngs and other relatves. Keywords: nternal mgraton, knshp, Albana, famly soldarty, nter-household transfers JEL classfcatons: D10, J10, J61, R20, R23 2

3 1. Introducton The present study examnes the mpact of nternal mgraton on transfers receved from knshp members for the specfc case of nternal mgrant households lvng n perurban areas of the captal of Albana, Trana. We analyse how nternal mgraton has affected the frequency of recevng fnancal transfers, goods, and servces from dfferent members of the knshp network. Knshp networks provde ts members wth contnuous support both n every day lfe and for sudden or unforeseen events. Indvduals n every socety rely on such networks for gettng economc, socal and emotonal support. They often see self-dentfcaton wth such networks as a necessary means for ganng the addtonal securty that these networks can offer. But, perhaps the most dstnctve feature of such networks s that they are never stable. Over tme ther shape changes due to demographc, economc or socal developments. Here we look at the effect that nternal mgraton has on knshp networks. As mgraton relocates famly members, splts famles and exposes mgrants to new people and dfferent cultural practces, t s also lkely to affect the knshp network and support receved by ts members. We analyse the effect that nternal mgraton and change n locaton have had on the transfer network and transfer mx. We focus n partcular on transfers receved by the household. By lookng at transfers receved we are able to control for a wde range of characterstcs of the recevng household. We also check these results comparng them to transfers that the same households gve to ther kn members. Based on prevous lterature and Albana s partcular mgraton dynamcs, we test the followng hypotheses: (1) After mgraton fnancal transfers became more mportant. (2) After mgraton, households supersede famly members n ther transfer network wth non-relatves (such as frends, neghbours, etc). Between nternal mgraton n Albana was centrally controlled durng the Communst regme. In fact, permanently relocatng was not legally allowed (wthout pror permsson) untl 1993, although many people started movng a few years earler already. Wth the fall of totaltaran regme n late 1990, the country faced severe socal and economc challenges. The mass layoffs that followed the shut down of mnes, plants, and neffcent state-owned enterprses created an mmense pressure on the labour market. The agrcultural land reform of 1991 authorzed subdvson of former state-owned land to households based on equtable share bass (World Bank, 2006). In many areas, especally the mountanous ones, 3

4 ths land was nsuffcent, and moreover the process was accompaned by many dffcultes and rregulartes (World Bank, 2004). Beng left wth few other possbltes, people from former ndustral towns or remote vllages started mgratng ether nternatonally (manly towards the neghbourng countres, Italy or Greece), or nternally (towards the man ctes n the coastal area and Trana). Offcal data show that almost one n three adults has mgrated nternally snce brth (World Bank, 2007). Internal mgrants frst occuped former agrcultural lands n the per-urban areas of bg ctes, whch soon developed nto major settlements. Internal mgraton n Albana s often charactersed by relocaton of the whole household. Unlke n other former Communst countres, mgraton s not crcular and any future mgraton would mostly be to an nternatonal destnaton. Earler studes ndcate that nternal movers come from all soco-economc backgrounds (De Soto et al., 2002, Cla, 2006), and the man motvaton behnd the relocaton seems to be economc,.e. work-related (Carletto et al., 2004). Our qualtatve ntervews also show that often whole famles and even vllages relocated to the same area, for envronmental, employment or educaton reasons. Fgure 1. Orgn dstrcts of surveyed households Source: Own complaton Ths study s based on a unque household survey that was conduced n 2008 amongst nternal mgrant households lvng n per-urban households n Trana, coverng dfferent 4

5 knds of households (.e. nuclear and extended famles). Fgure 1 below depcts a map of Albana on whch the dstrct of orgn of the surveyed households are marked. It shows that mgrant households come from nearly all dstrcts, but especally from the Northern and Central mountanous areas (the darker areas on the map). For many of these mgrant households the mpact of mgraton has been far from successful. Prevous studes (e.g. Cla, 2005 and Hagen-Zanker & Azzarr, 2008) show that unemployment s very hgh, and whle ncome may be hgher for mgrant households after mgraton, consumpton s not (Hagen-Zanker & Azzarr, 2008). Ths shows that households are faced wth volatle crcumstances and may stll be very much dependent on nter-famly transfers. One would expect that after mgraton especally fnancal transfers would ncrease. Furthermore the composton of the network may have changed. Households may leave famly members behnd due to nternal mgraton and many also have famly that mgrated nternatonally. At the same tme households are exposed to a heterogeneous group of mgrants comng from all parts of Albana and lvng n very condensed lvng condtons. Ths could lead to more exchange and nteracton wth non-kn than before. In ths paper we nvestgate the mpact of mgraton on knshp networks and patterns of resource sharng (fnancal, goods and servce transfers) among knshp members. The study s related both to the economc analyss of nter-household transfers and the mpact of nternal mgraton lterature and follows n the footsteps of a few papers that combne the two research areas. Studes focusng on the mpact of nternal mgraton on transfers for complete famly relocaton are lmted n number. Ths lterature focuses manly on demographc changes n the US n the md 20 th century. The present study analyses ths ssue much more thoroughly utlsng both qualtatve ntervews and advanced econometrc technques. Furthermore we focus on a transton economy where the role of prvate transfers s much more mportant. Internal mgraton s hgh n Albana, poverty n per-urban areas remans wde-spread and state support s low. Ths makes the nvestgaton of prvate transfers and ther development over tme an nterestng and relevant research queston. The remander of ths paper proceeds as follows: Secton 2 revews the relevant lterature and gves the reasonng behnd the hypotheses. Secton 3 descrbes the data, gves some descrptve statstcs and outlnes the emprcal methodology. Secton 4 analyses the results, and we conclude n Secton 5. 5

6 2. Lterature Revew Ths paper consders the economc aspects of famly soldarty. Utlty of an ndvdual (or the total household n our case) does not only depend on own consumpton, but also on consumpton of ther famly and kn members (Becker, 1974, Becker 1976). From ths perspectve, the degree of helpng and resource sharng s a clear and measurable ndcator of famly soldarty, whch can vary over dfferent networks or over tme. More specfcally, economc relatonshps between knshp members may be characterzed by transfers of money, goods, or servces rendered. Bengtson & Roberts (1991) argue that helpng and resource sharng s one of the most mportant aspects of famly soldarty. Changes affectng the structures of knshp networks can consequently affect the patterns of resource sharng. People s moblty through mgraton (and especally rural-to-urban mgraton) s consdered to be an mportant factor that nfluences knshp tes (Blumberg & Bell, 1959). Mulder and Cooke (2009), usng data from Netherlands Knshp Panel Study show that locaton of other famly members outsde the household may mpede households from movng (when other relatves lve nearby the household), or trgger nternal mgraton (when other relatves lve far away). 1 Whether mgraton takes place at all s also nfluenced by the strength of knshp networks. The mgraton network lterature shows how knshp networks help potental mgrants to mgrate and then help mgrants to fnd employment, housng etc. at the destnaton (e.g. Goss & Lndqust 1995). Choldn (1973) also emphaszes chan mgraton and help gven to kn to also mgrate. Through chan mgraton socal networks may be reproduced n the new communty. An mportant consequence of nternal mgraton s that t s usually accompaned by a placement wthn clusters of kn relatves comng from the same areas (see also Blumberg and Bell, 1959; Hendrx, 1975). Ths may lead to the preservatons of certan relatons and habts, and may even contrbute to renforce them. What s clear, s that the decson to mgrate nternally s both affected by the knshp networks and at the same tme affects the relatonshps wthn the same networks. Prevous studes have shown that permanent nternal mgraton has pervasve effects on famles and knshp networks. Duke-Wllams (2009) argues that moblty and mgraton are key drvers n changes n households. Peoples moblty contrbutes to the separaton of households and the creaton of new households. Blumberg and Bell (1959) argue that rural to 1 A number of other papers n a recent specal ssue n Populaton, Space and Place also hghlght the mportance of resdental locaton on famly tes and support (see Mulder & Cooke, 2009). 6

7 urban mgraton changes the structure of knshp relatonshps. These changes are a consequence of the dysfunctonalty of the urban settng for a knshp relatonshp snce urban settngs are usually dfferent from those of vllages or small towns. The same authors further argue that n urban settngs the mportance of the famly and knshp tends to declne, whle the resdual functons (.e. vsts) may stay ntact on the other hand and may become even stronger. In contrast, other studes cted by Blumberg and Bell (1959), show that a good part of rural mgrants receve help from frends or relatves when they frst move to urban areas. Ltwak s 1960 study n New York concludes that moblty reduced face-to-face contact, but not extended famly dentfcaton,.e. feelng close to the extended famly. He fnds that over tme famly contacts are stll as lkely as before, but that long-term resdents are more lkely to be n contact wth neghbours or belongng to a club. Jtoda (1963) fnds that at arrval rural mgrants n Detrot have hgher rates of contact wth ther kn, than urban mgrants, possbly because rural mgrants are followed by ther famly. Over tme contact rates for rural mgrants stay more or less stable and those for urban mgrants ncrease, becomng smlar to contact rates of natves and of rural mgrants. Mgraton thus dd not hnder mgrants n keepng n touch wth ther kn. Wellman et al (1997) also looked at socal networks n Toronto n the 1970s. Knshp tes were most lkely to reman ten years after the orgnal survey, also for households that moved, whle some tes wth neghbours were lost for the households that moved. Ruan et al. (1997) look at the changng structure of socal networks n Tajn, Chna and fnd that between 1986 and 1993 ndvduals named fewer kn members as personal tes, whle frends became relatvely more mportant. The authors attrbute ths to changng polces n Chna that allowed for more resdental and occupatonal moblty, whch has some smlartes wth Albana s stuaton after Wth regard to the transfer mx, there are few exstng studes. Cox, Jmenez and Okrasa (1996) compare famly soldarty before and after transton (1987 vs. 1992) n Poland. They fnd the same ncdence of fnancal transfers n real terms, despte a worse economc stuaton, so famly soldarty s somewhat weaker. Vullnetar & Kng (2008) descrbe a growng trend of care dran n Albana, namely the effect mgraton of adult chldren has on ther elderly parents. They depct a pattern of fewer vsts (as they manly refer to nternatonal mgraton) and less care, both by parents (care of the grandchldren) and chldren (care of ther parents). Even though fnancal transfers from mgrant chldren to 7

8 parents rse n some nstances, they do not make up for the shortfall n physcal care. In short, famly soldarty weakens as result of mgraton. The lterature on determnants of remttances focuses on fnancal famly transfers between the mgrant and the famly left behnd 2. The lterature predcts that there are fnancal transfers from the mgrant to the household and wder famly left behnd due to a wde range of motves rangng from altrusm to self-nterest. There could also be transfers to the mgrant, as part of a co-nsurance agreement, for example when the mgrant s temporarly unemployed (see Stark, 1991). The remttances lterature would predct that there are more fnancal transfers between the famly members after the move than before, snce mgrants generally mgrate n order to remt. Fnally the exchange motve would predct a rse n servces from the household left behnd to the mgrants (e.g. takng care of chldren left behnd) smultaneously wth a rse n fnancal transfers from the mgrant to the household. Even though n Albana s case generally the whole household moves (Instat, 2004), the remttances lterature has some relevance. The motves for fnancal transfers, for example supportng needy famly members, may explan changes n transfer patterns. In concluson, we expect that nternal mgraton nfluences the knshp networks and the resource transfers wthn these networks. Due to longer dstances between household members and greater fnancal means due to mgraton, we expect the mportance of fnancal transfers to grow and servces to decrease. Furthermore, economc theores on the causes of mgraton and motvatons to remt hypothesze that fnancal transfers ncrease after mgraton (Hypothess 1). Even f whole households moved together and they are joned by more knshp members, we can expect that the new surroundngs and acquantances lead to weakenng of exstng knshp networks (Hypothess 2). 2 Remttances are the money transfers that that mgrants send to ther famles left behnd. 8

9 3. Data and Methodology 3.1 Data The survey was admnstered by the authors, wth the assstance of a team of students from Trana Unversty n Aprl We selected the sample from the four man neghbourhoods that were populated after 1990 and accommodate a large mgrant populaton. Each of those neghbourhoods has a slghtly dfferent mgrant populaton, for example households lvng n Bathore are more lkely to come from the Northern mountanous areas of Albana and are more lkely to lve n extended famles. The selected households were dstrbuted across the areas accordng to the sze of these areas and mportance of mgrant nflows for these areas, whch means that almost half of the sample was collected n Bathore, as ths s the bggest per-urban area and also has the largest mgrant populaton. By absence of street names and accurate populaton regsters, we quas-randomsed our sample by sub-dvdng our selected areas nto strata of around one km 2 usng satellte maps and then randomly selectng houses n selected strata. The sub-sectons were then assgned to ntervewers, who also marked the exact locaton of ntervewed households on the map. If the selected households dd not ft the crtera of beng an nternal mgrant household (11.48%), or refused to partcpate (25.68%), a neghbourng house was chosen. Our postve response rate s 74.32% and n total we ntervewed 112 households. Table 1 below shows the number of households that were selected n each area. We used two types of questonnares. The man questonnare has 137 questons rangng from nformaton on the man households demographcs, educaton, employment, ncome, and mgraton hstory to the key secton on famly soldarty. A total of 26 households were also ntervewed n sem-structured ntervews usng addtonal qualtatve questons. 3 In the man secton on famly soldarty, households are questoned n great detal about transfers between the man household and a random selecton of extended famly members and neghbours, who the man household s n regular contact wth, both before and after the move. Households were frst asked to lst all relatves and frends wth whom they were n contact wth on a regular bass and then the ntervewer randomly selected two relatves n each of fve broad categores of relatves (.e. parents, chldren, sblngs, other relatves and frends) by choosng the frst two relatves whose frst name comes earler n the 3 Only Jessca Hagen-Zanker & Floran Tomn conducted ntervews. All households questoned by them were asked whether they would be wllng to also partcpate n an open-ended ntervew that was to be recorded, but not all households agreed. The qualtatve ntervews were thus based on a sub-secton of the man sample. 9

10 alphabet. We then asked some basc demographc questons on all famly and frends. Further questons on the soco-economc characterstcs of the relatve/ frend and on famly soldarty were only asked about the selected relatves. Households were questoned on the fnancal transfers, goods and servces exchanged both n the last twelve months and before the move. In the latter case, households were dvded broadly n those comng before 1997 and those comng after ths year. 4 In order to get a smlar bass of comparson, mgrants movng before 1997 were asked about the transfers durng the last 12 months before 1991, and those movng after 1997 about transfers durng the last 12 months before Detaled questons were asked on the type/ amount of the transfer and the frequency for both before and after the move. In ths paper we only make use of the data on the recept of transfers because ths allows us to have more control varables based on household nformaton. 3.2 Descrptve Statstcs We frst gve a short descrpton on the soco-economc characterstcs of our sample by the neghbourhood the household lves n. Around 96% of the household heads sampled are male and about 90% are marred and there are no sgnfcant dfferences per area. Table 1 below outlnes further characterstcs. Table 1. Household characterstcs n the sampled areas Area 5 Maj Bathore Selte Senatorum Total Age household head Educaton household head Household head Muslm 0.74* Household head Coastal orgn * 0.25*** Household head Central orgn 0.63** 0.09*** 0.61*** Household head North Central orgn ** 0.04* Household head Mountan orgn 0.21* 0.67*** 0.11*** Household s extended famly ** 0.11* Household arrved before Number of household members *** 4.32** Number of observatons Income/ capta *** *** Number of observatons was chosen both as a chronologcal mlestone and because the turmol that followed the collapse of the fnancal pyramds led to an ncrease n numbers of especally poor mgrants to per-urban areas of large ctes. 5 Recallng transfers n the past s trcky at best. Therefore to enable recall, we asked households to gve us transfer patterns for a memorable year n the past, ether 1990 f the household moved before 1997 or 1997 f the household moved after s memorable because of the pyramd savngs scheme crss and 1991 s memorable because t s the year that the Communst system collapsed. 10

11 Stars ndcate whether the mean for each group s sgnfcantly dfferent from the total mean (* sgnfcant at 10%; ** sgnfcant at 5%; *** sgnfcant at 1%) Household heads are on average 51 years old and have on average 11 years of educaton (; however there are no sgnfcant dfferences between areas. Most household heads are Muslm, but sgnfcantly fewer n 5 Maj, a more recent per-urban area. We see that household from Coastal orgns are sgnfcantly strongly represented n Selte, and household from Central orgns n 5 Maj and Selte. Both are underrepresented n Bathore, where household are sgnfcantly more lkely to come from North Central and especally the mountan areas. Most households we ntervewed are nuclear famles, but households n Bathore are sgnfcantly more lkely to lve n extended famles. Consequently they also have sgnfcantly more famly members per household. Households n Bathore have the sgnfcantly lowest ncome per capta and households n Selte are sgnfcantly rcher. More households arrved before 1997 n Bathore and Senatorum (these were the areas that were frst settled), but the dfference s not sgnfcant. We also look at the level of ndvdual kn the household exchanges wth. Kn members are classed nto broad categores and we compare whether household has receved transfers from these kn. Not all kn the household named, and that was selected, exchanged transfers wth the household, as can be seen n Table 1 n Annex 1. 6 We ask the queston on the recept of transfers for the past 12 months and for the stuaton before mgraton took place. We analyse three types of transfers: Fnancal transfers, goods and servces. Table 2 compares transfers by the lkelhood of recevng transfers from dfferent knds of kn. Table 2. Transfer lkelhood from dfferent kn Type of kn the hh receves transfers from Parents & parents n law Chldren Sblngs Relatves Frends Total Hh receved fnancal transfer before mgraton ** Hh receved fnancal transfer n past 12 months *** Hh receved goods before mgraton ** 0.22 Hh receved goods n past 12 months Hh receved servces before mgraton ** Hh receved servces n past 12 months * Number of observatons Furthermore these questons were not always completed even for the selected relatves. 11

12 Stars ndcate whether the mean for each group s sgnfcantly dfferent from the total mean (* sgnfcant at 10%; ** sgnfcant at 5%; *** sgnfcant at 1%) Before mgraton households were sgnfcantly more lkely to receve money from ther chldren, whle households are sgnfcantly less lkely to have receved money from chldren n the past 12 months. Ths can not only be due to chldren growng up, snce households were also sgnfcantly more lkely to receve money from ther chldren before the move and snce we also had qute a vared age range of household heads. Households are also sgnfcantly more lkely to have receved servces from ther chldren before the move, whereas we see the opposte pattern n the past 12 months. 7 In the past households were sgnfcantly more lkely to receve goods from frends and after mgraton households seem to receve more fnancal transfers from frends, compared to other relatves (not sgnfcant). So far, the descrptve statstcs do not show a clear network change or change n the transfer mx. Table 3 below shows the transfer frequency from dfferent types of kn. There are no sgnfcant dfferences n the frequency of fnancal transfers receved from dfferent kn members (except for servces) for both before and after mgraton. It s noteworthy however that the average number of fnancal transfers has ncreased from 0.34 to 0.6 transfers receved per relatve. There are also no sgnfcant dfferences for good transfers. However, t s nterestng that the average good transfer receved from chldren after mgraton (2.56 goods per chld) s much hgher than before (0.7). Table 3. Transfer frequency from dfferent types of kn Type of kn the hh receves transfers from Parents & parents n law Chldren Sblngs Relatves Frends Total Frequency fnancal transfer before mgraton Frequency fnancal transfer n past 12 months Frequency goods transfer before mgraton Frequency goods transfer n past 12 months Frequency servces transfer from before mgraton * 4.79*** Frequency servces transfer n past 12 months 8.81* 12.89*** *** Number of observatons We excluded relatves from the before mgraton analyss that were part of the same household as the current household head n the past so that the extremely hgh transfers that tend to be exchanged wthn the same household do not bas our results. 12

13 Stars ndcate whether the mean for each group s sgnfcantly dfferent from the total mean (* sgnfcant at 10%; ** sgnfcant at 5%; *** sgnfcant at 1%) For servces we see that both before and after mgraton other relatves are the least mportant gvers of servces. Before mgraton households receved sgnfcantly more servces from sblngs and after mgraton households receved sgnfcantly more servces from parents and chldren. Whle servces reman by far the most frequent transfer receved, a lower average number of servces are exchanged after mgraton (6.65 down from 9.11 servces per relatve). 3.3 Methodology We want to test the determnants of nter-household transfers and also analyse the mpact of mgraton on transfer patterns. For ths we consder frequency of recevng monetary, goods, and servce before mgraton and n the last 12 months before the survey was admnstered,.e. after mgraton 8. We pool the data from before and after mgraton, accountng for when the transfer takes place wth the mgraton dummy. To acheve ths we use the same varables for before and after mgraton. When applcable, the varable s adjusted to the perod before mgraton (e.g. age, number of chldren etc.). As the transfers occur wthn a defned lmt of tme, and the probabltes of consecutve transfers are not dependent on each other, we assume that the dstrbuton of transfers frequences follows the Posson dstrbuton. Consequently, the count rate would be calculated as: μ = E ( y ) = exp( x β ) (1) where, μ s the expected value of the model dependent on a vectors of covarates, β s a vector of estmated coeffcents, and x ncludes characterstcs of recevng household and sendng relatve. The probablty of observng a specfc count s: Pr( Y y e = y ) =, y = 1,2,3,... n (2) y! μ μ th where, for the count, y s the count. 8 For our analyss we only consder the recept of monetary, goods, or servce transfers as we are prmarly nterested n the household factors drvng such transfers both before and after mgraton, and our survey focuses prmarly on the characterstcs of the ntervewed mgrant households (less nformaton s collected on the selected relatves). Gvng of transfers, reproduced n Table 9 of Annex 4, gves smlar results, ndcatng that gvng and recevng follow the same patterns after mgraton. 13

14 However, our data show some partculartes that do not satsfy ths dstrbuton. We notce over-dsperson (varance s greater than mean), and also suspect an excess of zero values. We suspect that ths excess s a result of two man reasons: 1. Random heterogenety n frequences of receved transfers. In other words, households face the same probablty of recevng zero or any other frequency of transfers, but some households receve more zero or low count transfers, and others receve more hgh count transfers due to dosyncratc factors or a random bas. 2. Some households are systematcally not recevng transfers because of ther characterstcs. For example, respondents may have had lmted contact wth ther relatves n the last 12 months before the move. The standard Posson model therefore does not satsfy the features of our data. In order to nvestgate what drves the over-dsperson n our data, we extensvely compare dfferent count models. We compare the negatve bnomal regresson model (NBRM) to the zero nflated Posson (ZIP) and zero nflated negatve bnomal regresson (ZINBR) whch use a two stage approach. In the frst stage zero and non-zero outcomes are modelled, and n the second stage the remanng counts are modelled accordng to the standard Posson (ZIP) or to the negatve bnomal (ZINBR). Techncal detals of both these models are dscussed n Appendx 1. We calculate and compare the predcted values of NBRM, ZIP and ZINBR models n Annex 3. Further tests, partally reproduced n Annex 3, confrm that a smple Posson model s napproprate n ths context, havng far less accurate predctons than the other models dscussed. For all types of transfers, the ZIP model performs better than the standard Posson, but the predctons are less accurate than NBRM and ZINB. Ths ndcates that transfers suffer mostly from an dosyncratc and random bas rather than nflated zeros. In fact, NBRM and ZINB perform smlarly n predctng the probablty of counts, provdng less evdence on the nflated zero dstorton. We therefore choose to dscuss the results of NBRM as the model that explans the hdden heterogenety n the transfers counts best. For comparatve purposes, the results for all combned transfers usng NBRM and ZINB are reproduced n Table 8 n Annex 4. In fact the results from ZINB regressons for separate transfers are very close to the NBRM results. 9 The NBRM accounts for heterogenety among count outcomes. The predcted count probablty s: 9 The results of estmated ZINB models show, as we suspected (see reasons explaned n the methodology secton), that we may have some addtonal zeros added because of not beng n the same dstrct or because of havng an extended famly. However, the mprovement to the overall predcted values s not essental and 14

15 Γ( y + φ) φ Pr( Y = y ) = y, y 1,2,3,... n Γ( φ)! μ + φ μ + φ φ μ y = (3) where, the varance n the predcted counts s ncreased through a parameter 1 φ accountng for the suspected (over)dsperson (see also Freese and Long, 2001). In order to check how the support from dfferent members of the network has changed before and after mgraton we estmate NBRM models separately for before and after mgraton. Dfferences between coeffcents are then checked for sgnfcance usng seemngly unrelated estmaton (see also Weese, 2000). Whle we have qute a vared range of control varables, our survey does not provde us wth nformaton on household ncome or wealth n the past. We are aware that these knd of economc ndcators are mportant n explanng dfferences n transfer patterns, therefore we have controlled for t usng the present ncome as a proxy for past ncomes. The results are gven n Annex Emprcal Results We use two types of analyses n order to answer whether transfer patterns between extended famly members have changed as a result of the move. We frst analyse the openended qualtatve ntervews and draw frst conclusons from the respondents opnons. We then analyse the quanttatve data usng an econometrc analyss comparng the results to the hypotheses and conclusons from the qualtatve analyss. 4.1 Qualtatve analyss The open-ended questons are frst coded nto groups wth smlar responses for the 19 open-ended questons that we asked. We count how often respondents answered n a smlar way and draw conclusons here based on the frequency of certan answers. Annex 2 gves an overvew of the questons asked, codng and number of observatons for each type of response. Even f famles are separated by physcal dstance, many clam that ther relatonshp was not negatvely affected by ths. Many of the ntervewed households clamed that they meet ther famles more frequently than before (8 households). Half of the ntervewed households (13) also clamed that ther relatonshp to other famly members dd not change, statstcal tests show that both models are comparable. ZINB results for monetary, goods and servce transfers are avalable on request from authors. 15

16 wth about the same number of households ctng an mprovement or a worsenng of ther relatonshps. Whle some famles talked about relatonshps and lves havng become more dstant and separate, other respondent explan how the separaton tself has made them closer: My father often goes to vst them. He has a lot of nostalga. Yes my relatonshp wth them ddn t change. The dstance can t change the affecton we have for each other. Many households also feel much closer to ther famles because they shared the experence of movng. Most famles moved together wth ther nuclear, extended famly or even the whole vllage (10 households say ths explctly). Ths means that ther whole soldarty network s replcated n the cty. For example one household head explaned: All our neghbours are blood-related; t s the same bg famly All our neghbours here were neghbours there. Another household told a smlar story: The vllage of K., around 16 houses, has moved together to ths place. The entre block belongs to the S. famly. The strongest relatons we keep wth our neghbourhood, the S. famles. We are all brothers or cousns up to the fourth degree. We have very good relatons. There are about an equal number of households that clam that they have more/ fewer frends or contacts wth neghbours. Many households are thus stll exchangng wth the same people. Whle famly relatonshps thus often remaned close, the type of transfers exchanged between household members changed. Despte the hgh unemployment whch almost all respondents name as ther greatest problem, n general households benefted fnancally from the move (see also Hagen-Zanker & Azzarr, 2008). We see that fnancal transfers are becomng more mportant. Ths allows them to gve and receve more fnancal transfers (3 out of 5 households say they receve more fnancal transfers). At the same tme less help s needed, than n an agrcultural settng (4 out of 5 households say that they receve less servces). Many respondents ponted out ths shft from servces to fnancal transfers: To be realstc, f I would have to help everyone I would have to gve up my day of work, so the help s more lmted to monetary terms and not physcal anymore. At that tme you needed some help to work the land. Now you need more fnancal help. Yes wth money now and n the past wth work. 16

17 One respondent even declared that fnancal soldarty replaces socal soldarty to some extent: Economc relatons are better now. Affectve relatonshps are less good. When you get a bt rcher you grow apart a bt. The exchange of goods exchange of goods remans n between fnancal and servce transfers. We see that certan knds of good transfers,.e. food products, have become less mportant. Ths s because households now grow and collect less food than n rural areas and are therefore less able to gve food products, as these respondents explan: Here we buy all thngs n shops. There s no reason to ask your neghbour for somethng because the shop s there. Before t was dfferent, we exchanged more goods. We help each other less because now we don t own agrcultural land, so we have fewer products to help each other. Yes, there [referrng to vllage of orgn] the people can help more than here because they have cows, grow vegetables etc. Even though mgraton seem to have some small effects on the relatves that households choose to exchange transfer wth, a preferences for known relatves reman mostly unchallenged. Furthermore fnancal transfers are now more mportant than n the past. 4.2 Econometrc results Table 4 below gves the results from the NBRM for fnancal, goods and servces receved. Table 8 n Annex 4 gves the regresson results for all transfers combned. We pool the data from before and after mgraton, accountng for when the transfer takes place wth the mgraton dummy. To acheve ths we use the same varables for before and after mgraton. The tests at the bottom of Table 4, and n Annex 3 measure whether the NBRM model s the approprate model to use n ths context. The results n Annex 3 show what the actual and predcted mean count for all transfers s for each of the models and the dfference (how much the predcton dverges from the actual count). The Pearson test s a ch-squared test of ndependence and also ndcates how close the predcted count s to the actual count. We see that generally the NBRM model s one of the models that predcts the best. In Table 4, the lkelhood rato Chbar squared statstc allows us to see f the NBRM should be used nstead of standard Posson. The very low values of the probablty suggest over-dsperson, and therefore the use of NBRM s approprate. 17

18 Our varable of nterest transfer after mgraton, whch s a dummy varable that s one for the observatons after mgraton, s hghly sgnfcant for all transfers combned (see Table 8) and the separate transfers. Below we dscuss the dfferent types of transfers. Table 4. Results from NBRM: Frequency of recevng transfer Fnancal transfers Good transfers Servce transfers Coef. st. error Coef. st. error Coef. st. error Man regresson Transfer after mgraton 1.01*** *** *** 0.28 Relatve parent ** * 0.6 Relatve chld *** Relatve sblng * * 0.42 Relatve other *** 0.45 Age hhh (now/ before mgraton) -0.03** * Gender hh head 1.35** Educaton years hhh ** * 0.05 Hhh s relgon Muslm 1.00* ** Hhh s orgn Central * 0.5 Hhh s orgn North-Central Hhh s orgn Mountan Hh extended famly (now/ before mgraton) ** ** 0.28 Number of chldren hh (now/ before mgraton) *** 0.13 Years snce mgraton -0.06* ** Age relatve/ frend (now/ before mgraton) Gender relatve/ frend -1.30*** Educaton years relatve/ frend ** 0.04 Hh & relatve/ frend same relgon Hh & relatve/ frend lve n same dstrct (now/ before mgraton) 1.15*** *** 0.29 Constant * 1.51 Ln alpha 2.18*** *** *** 0.07 Number of observatons Log pseudo lkelhood P- value Ch Pseudo R LR Chbar P-value Chbar Note: Frequency of transfers refers to the number of tmes the transfer has been receved n the past 12 months/ before mgraton Transfer after mgraton s a dummy varable that s one for the observatons for the perod after mgraton Base for relatves (frends), relgon (all other relgons), household orgn (Coast) * sgnfcant at 10%; ** sgnfcant at 5%; *** sgnfcant at 1% 18

19 For recevng fnancal transfers, the varable of nterest transfer after mgraton has a strong sgnfcant effect, ndcatng that fnancal transfers have become more frequent after mgraton and confrmng the qualtatve analyss and Hypothess 1. Ths means that for a gven transfer partner and all other parameters beng equal, fnancal transfers are receved 0.3 more frequently by an average household after mgraton. 10 Fgure 2.1 shows the predcted frequences of fnancal transfers by age, for those transfers before and for those transfers after mgraton. The fgure confrms that fnancal transfers are more frequent after mgraton, at all ages. The dfference s especally large for younger household heads, who seem to be gettng more frequent fnancal transfers on average. Fgure 2. Predcted frequency of recevng transfers by age, for transfers before and after mgraton Pred. freq. FINANCIAL transf Pred. freq. GOOD transfer Age of hhh Transfer after mgraton Transfer before mgraton Age of hhh Transfer after mgraton Transfer before mgraton 2.1 Fnancal transfers 2.2 Good transfers Pred. freq. SERVICE transf Pred. freq. ALL transf Age of hhh Transfer after mgraton Transfer before mgraton Age of hhh Transfer after mgraton Transfer before mgraton 2.3 Servce transfers 2.4 All transfers Source: Own complaton The relatve varables show that frends gve money more frequently than parents, chldren, or other relatves, but less frequently than sblngs. However, ths effect s not sgnfcant for any of the relatves. 10 Margnal effects are not reproduced here and can be requested from the authors. 19

20 The dummy varable, gender of household head, has a postve effect on the transfers receved (female headed households receve more frequently) and gender of relatve has a negatve effect (women relatves gves less frequently). Ths does not necessarly show that women tend to gve less frequently, but rather that transfers may be explaned by the partcular stuaton of the households. Most of the female headed households happen to be n fnancal dffcultes ether because of the loss of the man breadwnner (.e. wdow headed households) or are n vulnerable stuaton due to the nformal and unstable labour market. 11 Households that moved before 1997 seem to receve monetary transfers less frequently than others. Ths can be explaned by the relatve success that these households have n fnancal terms due to more stable and better pad jobs (see Hagen-Zanker & Azzarr, 2008). Most other control varables are sgnfcant and the coeffcents have the expected sgns. Comng to goods, the varable of nterest transfer after mgraton s hghly sgnfcant and negatve. More specfcally, for a gven transfer partner and all other parameters beng equal, an average household after mgraton receves 1.9 less frequent good transfers. Based on the nformal ntervews t appears that ths pattern s drven by changes n the nature of goods that are exchanged. Before mgraton, the goods that were exchanged conssted manly of food and agrcultural products, whch are exchanged repeatedly. After mgraton, food s exchanged less frequently as people grow less of t n per-urban areas. However, people now exchange gfts on specal occasons, lke brthdays, maybe due to changng cultural practces and more fnancal wealth from mgraton. These knds of transfers take place non-frequently. Fgure 2.2 shows the predcted frequency of good transfers by age, for those transfers before and for those transfers after mgraton. The fgure shows very clearly that good transfers are lower at all ages after mgraton. Interestngly, the dfference n the predcted frequency between before and after mgraton s lower for older household heads. Lookng at the relatves that gve goods to the household we see that famly relatves are generally more mportant gvers of goods than frends (not sgnfcant for Relatve other ). The varable Educaton years of household head has a postve and sgnfcant effect showng that the most educated (and therefore those wth hgher chance of success n the labour market) receve goods from ther kn members more frequently. Extended famly households receve goods less frequently snce they have stronger lnks wth persons wthn ther own household (the survey only measures nter-households transfers). 11 Albanan socety preserves patrarchal norms where the men are always declared as the head of the household, and therefore male headed households make up for most of our sample. 20

21 Fnally, for servce transfers, the man varable of nterest transfer after mgraton s strongly sgnfcant and negatve. Ths means that for a gven transfer partner and all other parameters beng equal, there are 5.2 fewer servce transfers receved by a gven household after mgraton. The results that less goods and servces and more fnancal transfers are receved by households confrm Hypothess 1. These results are not surprsng gven our qualtatve ntervews: Relatves that are often also nternal or nternatonal mgrants are now much more able to gve fnancally due to better-pad employment and have less tme to spend on other transfers (such as servces) due to ncreased dstances and a dfferent employment structure. Fgure 2.3 shows the predcted frequency of servce transfers by age, for those transfers before and for those transfers after mgraton. It shows clearly that servce transfers were hgher before mgraton, at all ages. We see a slght decrease n the dfference between transfers before mgraton and transfer after mgraton at hgher ages, but to a much lesser extent than for fnancal transfers and goods. Ths mght be explaned by the fact that servce transfers are probably much less affected by behavoural changes and that lvng close by (whch we control for n the regresson) affects the transfer of servces much more. Comng to relatves, we agan see that all relatves (except chldren) are sgnfcantly less mportant than frends n terms of frequency of servce transfers. Agan we suspect ths to be a consequence of mgraton and we confrm ths by runnng models separately for before and after mgraton (see dscusson below). Educaton of the household head agan has a postve effect on frequency of servces (confrmng the same trend we notced for goods). The number of chldren also has a postve effect suggestng that most of servces exchanged are also related to chld mndng actvtes. As expected lvng n the same dstrct has a strong postve effect. Ths confrms prevous studes (e.g. Mulder & van der Meer, 2009) that hghlght the mportance of geographcal proxmty for recevng servce support. The other varables have the expected sgns and are generally sgnfcant. Of course transfers are not mutually exclusve; therefore we also nclude a NBRM regresson that measures the probablty of havng a certan frequency of transfers ncludng a combnaton of transfers. 12 The results are ncluded n Table 10 and strongly confrm our prevous fndngs. The ncreased monetary transfers after mgraton have been superseded by the decrease n goods and servces, therefore the overall effect of mgraton s the declne n 12 The frequency of separate transfers (fnancal, goods and servces) are summed to calculate the total number of transfers receved. 21

22 the combnaton of transfers (Fgure 2.4). Ths s an nterestng result. Apart from the above arguments explanng the declne of both goods and servces, we can also attrbute ths to the ncreasng value placed on ndvdualty and ndependence after mgraton, a comment that was often brought up by respondents n the qualtatve ntervew stage. Frends transfer more frequently than parents, sblngs (not sgnfcant) or other relatves, but less than chldren. We suspect that the mgraton has played a role n ths (see Hypothess 2), and therefore nvestgate ths further. Table 5 gves dfferences n coeffcents for relatves as compared to frends estmated n separate NBRMs for before and after mgraton and measures whether ths dfference s sgnfcant. 13 Control varables used are the same as n Table 4. Table 5. Dfferences n coeffcents from separate NBRM (before and after mgraton) Fnancal Goods Servces All transfers Dfference of coeffcents (after - before) Relatve Parent Relatve Chld Relatve Sblng Relatve Other ** *** 2.59* *** *** -1.57*** -3.43*** ** Note: The complete results are reproduced n Table 10, Annex 4. * sgnfcant at 10%; ** sgnfcant at 5%; *** sgnfcant at 1% For fnancal transfers we see that after mgraton sblngs and other relatves have become relatvely less mportant (negatve and sgnfcant dfference n coeffcents) compared to frends. The same holds for parents (though dfference s not sgnfcant). However, transfers from chldren have not declned n frequency, even though we have to treat ths result wth cauton as chldren have a low number of non-zero observatons (see Annex 1). The results are further confrmed for good transfers, where the postve and sgnfcant dfference of coeffcents for chldren shows that they are becomng ncreasngly more mportant after mgraton. On the other hand, the role of other members of knshp s superseded by frends (however, results are not sgnfcant). The same trend s also confrmed for servce transfers where most of are sgnfcant whle the sgns only change for the non-sgnfcant chldren. The effects are stronger for these 13 The results are estmated usng seemngly unrelated estmaton procedure (Weese, 2000). See Table 10, Annex 4 for extended results of NBRM models. 22

23 transfers gven ther partcular characterstcs (physcal dstance s essental n delverng frequent servces to relatves). Generally, all the above results confrm that mgraton has partally shfted transfers more towards partcular members of knshp. Chldren and frends become ncreasngly mportant after mgraton, especally for servces, and the effects are not always sgnfcant but consstent. The fndngs ndcate that some change n the network takes place after mgraton, thus confrmng Hypothess 2. An addtonal explanatory varable that s lkely to affect transfers receved s ncome or wealth of the household. As explaned above, we do not nclude ths control varable n our man model, as we do not know the household s ncome before nternal mgraton. However, to measure the effect of ncome and to safeguard that our results are not strongly affected by ths omsson, we control for wealth by usng current per capta ncome (see Table 7 n Annex 4). Frstly, the sgns, statstcal sgnfcance and sze of the noteworthy regressors are not affected much by controllng for ncome. Ths strengthens our prevous results. Secondly, ncome has the expected negatve effect on good and fnancal, good and servce transfers receved (but not sgnfcant), whch shows that rcher households receve fewer transfers. 5. Conclusons Ths paper s based on a unque survey amongst nternal mgrant households n perurban Trana, Albana conducted n Aprl The nformalty of the settlements complcated samplng desgn and a random sample selecton, whch may affect the strength of these conclusons. Internal mgraton to per-urban areas of major ctes s a wde-spread phenomenon n the country. Ths movement s often characterzed by whole famly relocaton. We are partcularly nterested n how the change of locaton through nternal mgraton has affected the relance on famly and non-famly members of knshp and the patterns of transfers. For ths we look at three man transfers (fnancal, goods, and servces) and nvestgate the changes n recevng patterns both at the current moment and before mgraton. By explotng both a quanttatve survey and addtonal qualtatve ntervews, we show that mgraton has affected the mx between the transfers that households receve, towards more frequent fnancal transfers (Hypothess 1) and has also had some effect on the composton of the famly network on whch they rely upon (Hypothess 2). The frst hypothess relates to the effect of mgraton on the mx of transfers, lookng at the ntensty of recevng a certan transfer. Mgraton seems to have a postve effect on the 23