Japan's Real GDP. The Output Gap and the Tankan Composite Indicator
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1 Japan's Real GDP Chart tril. yen Source: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts." Chart The Output Gap and the Tankan Composite Indicator % reversed, DI ("excessive" -"insufficient"), % points Output gap Forecast "Tankan" composite indicator (right scale) Note: The output gap is estimated by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan. Figures for the Tankan composite indicator are weighted averages of the production capacity DI and employment conditions DI. The fiscal 9- averages of capital and labor shares in "National Accounts" are used as the weight. Sources: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts"; Bank of Japan, "Tankan, Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan, etc.
2 y/y rate, % Consumer Price Index Chart CPI (all items less fresh food) CPI (all items less food and energy) Note: Excluding the effects of the consumption tax hike. Figures for /Q are those of July-August averages. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Consumer Price Index." Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations y/y rate, %. Chart... to years ahead (Consensus Forecasts) to years ahead (ESP Forecast). 9 Notes:. Figures are forecasts made every January, April, July, and October. Those up through April are forecasts made every April and October.. Figures are forecasts made every June and December. The effects of the consumption tax hikes are excluded. Sources: Consensus Economics Inc., "Consensus Forecasts"; Japan Center for Economic Research, "ESP Forecast."
3 Chart Private Consumption, Exports, and Business Fixed Investment tril. yen Pi Private consumption tril. yen Business fixed investment (right scale) Exports (right scale) Source: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts." Chart Economic Activity of Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Firms 9 = = Index of mining and manufacturing activity Index of nonmanufacturing activity (right scale) Note: The index of nonmanufacturing activity is calculated as the weighted average of the index of tertiary industry activity and the index of construction industry activity. Figures for /Q are those for July. Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Indices of All Industry Activity."
4 Chart Ratios of Current Profits to Sales of Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Firms % % Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing (right scale) Source: Ministry of Finance, "Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry." Employment Conditions DI Chart reversed, DI Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Insufficient Excessive Source: Bank of Japan, "Tankan, Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan."
5 Breakdown of Number of Employees Chart 9 Part-time employees Full-time employees Note: Figures for /Q are those of July-August averages. Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Monthly Labour Survey." Employee Income Number of regular employees Total cash earnings Employee income Chart Note: In this chart, Q = March-May, Q = June-August, Q = September-November, Q = December-February. Employee income is calculated as the "number of employees" (Labour Force Survey) times "total cash earnings" (Monthly Labour Survey). Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Monthly Labour Survey"; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey."
6 Labor Force Participation Rate Chart 9 Labor force participation rate Estimated trend 9 Note: The estimated trend is the weighted average of trends in labor force participation rates by gender and age in Chart. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey." Labor Force Participation Rates by Gender and Age Chart (- years) (- years) ( years and over) % % % Male % % % 9 9% % % % 9 % % % % 9 Female % % % % % 9 % % % % % 9 % % % % % 9 Note: The blue thin lines are the labor force participation rates. The red bold lines are the trends calculated using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey."
7 Chart Potential Growth and Medium- to Long-Term Inflation Expectations Potential growth rate (per capita) Medium- to long-term inflation expectations ( to years ahead, right scale) Notes:. Figures for inflation expectations are based on the results of the Consensus Forecasts, a survey conducted on private sector forecasters.. The potential growth rate is estimated by the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan. Sources: Consensus Economics Inc., "Consensus Forecasts"; Cabinet Office, "National Accounts," etc. Chart Long-Term Interest Rates, Stock Prices, and Corporate Profits Japan % = 9 United States % = 9 9 Long-term interest rates Stock prices (right scale) Corporate profits (right scale) Note: Long-term interest rates are -year government bond yields. Stock prices of Japan and United States are the TOPIX and S&P, respectively. Corporate profits of Japan are from "Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly," and those of United States are from SNA statistics. Market data include those up through October,. Sources: Ministry of Finance, "Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly"; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, "National Income and Product Accounts"; Bloomberg. 9 9
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