Recent Economic Developments

Transcription

1 Recent Economic Developments February 6, 19 Cabinet Office Government of Japan Contact for inquiries: Directorate General for Economic Research

2 <Assessments of the current state of the Japanese economy> November The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. December The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. () January The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. () 1

3 <Assessments of the current state of the Japanese economy> November December January Private consumption Private consumption is picking up. Business investment Business investment is increasing. Exports Exports are almost flat. Exports are in a weak tone recently. ( ) Industrial production Industrial production is increasing moderately. Corporate profits Corporate profits are improving. Firms judgments on business conditions Firms' judgments on current business conditions are almost flat. The employment situation The employment situation is improving steadily. Prices Consumer prices are rising at a slower tempo recently. Consumer prices are flat recently. Note: denotes downward revision. 2

4 <Short-term prospects> November The economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the risks including the effects of situations over trade issues on the world economy, the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets. December The economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the effects of situations over trade issues on the world economy, the uncertainty in overseas economies and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets. January The economy is expected to continue recovering, supported by the effects of the policies, while employment and income situation is improving. However, attention should be given to the effects of situations over trade issues on the world economy, the uncertainty in overseas economies including the prospect of the Chinese economy and the effects of fluctuations in the financial and capital markets. 3

5 (January) <Policy stance> The Government will make its utmost efforts to ensure the economy overcomes deflation and achieve economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation simultaneously, in addition to make effort toward the reconstruction and revitalization from the Great East Japan Earthquake and the restoration and reconstruction from the 16 Kumamoto Earthquake. To this end, the Government steadily implements the "Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 18", the "Growth Strategy 18" and so on. Moreover, in order to establish the social security system oriented to all generations under which people of all generations can live at ease and work, the Government will promote comprehensive reform of the system including the labor system. Futhermore, looking ahead to the consumption tax rate hike planned for October 1, 19, the Government will take all possible measures towards economic and fiscal management. The Government will implement the FY18 first supplementary budget swiftly and steadily, and work for early passage of the FY18 second supplementary budget, the FY19 budget including the temporal and special measures and the related bills. The Government continuously pursues to expand the economic virtuous cycles which cover local areas, SMEs and small-scale businesses, through directing growing corporate profits towards investment, wage increase and further improvement in the employment situation. The Government presented the "Fiscal 18 Economic Outlook and Basic Stance for Economic and Fiscal Management " (January 28th, Cabinet decision). The Government expects the Bank of Japan to achieve the price stability target of two percent in light of economic activity and prices. 4

6 The recovery has continued for 74 s ( ), and becomes the longest expansion in history. The length of the economic expansion period is officially determined by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), based on further accumulation of data and the discussion of experts % Izanagi boom Nominal and Real GDP growth rate Bubble boom Nominal GDP Real GDP 14 th cycle The current recovery period million people Increase in the number of employed persons in each economic recovery period 3.96 Bubble boom (1986.Ⅳ~1991.Ⅰ).97 14th cycle (2.Ⅰ~8.Ⅰ) 3.75 The current recovery period (12.Ⅳ~) GDP growth rate in each economic recovery period (ann., %) The current recovery period Period Nominal Real 12.12~ (74 s ) th cycle 2.2~8.2 (73 s) th cycle (Izanagi boom) 11 th cycle (Bubble boom) ~197.7 (57 s) ~ (51 s) The length of the economic expansion period is officially determined by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), based on further accumulation of data and the discussion of experts. Source: Cabinet Office. 4 3 trillion yen 17.1 Bubble boom (1986.Ⅳ~1991.Ⅰ) Increase in corporate profits in each economic recovery period th cycle (2.Ⅰ~8.Ⅰ) 35.1 The current recovery period (12.Ⅳ~) Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications; Ministry of Finance. 5

7 -Employment situation- As the employment situation steadily improves, more women and elderly people participate in the labor market. Unemployment rate and active job openings-to-applicants ratio Women s employment rate and childcare s.a., ratio s.a., % Active job openings-to-applicants ratio [Highest level since January 1974] % 17(Other women) 12 5%pt (Women with children under six) Active job openings-to-applicants ratio (Regular employees) %pt 12 25~29 3~34 35~39 4~44 age %,%pt Employment rate by age Unemployment rate [Lowest level since August 1993] to 17 6~64 65~69 7~74 75~79 8~84 85~ age Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Labour Force Survey, Employment Status Survey ; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Employment Referrals for General Workers. 6

8 -Private Consumption- Private Consumption is picking up. Households with two earners tend to increase, and their consumption on education, cooked meals and eating out has increased. 1 s.a., 11= Synthetic consumption index (Real) 12 Households with two earners of working-age generation are increasing million household Households with one earner Households with two earners Increase in consumption when a one-earner couple becomes dual-earning yen, ly average 6, 5, 2 3MA (3 s moving average) 4, 3, 2, , education food culture transportation & recreation eating out Sources: Cabinet Office; Keio University; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications., 7

9 Consumer prices- s.a., 15= Core CPI (less fresh food) Consumer prices are flat as a whole in recent s, though prices in personal services and eating out have risen. CPI (Consumer Price Index) Core-core CPI (less fresh food and energy) Items with strong price growth contribution to change from the previous year in Core-core CPI, % Personal services (Charges for package tours to overseas, Hotel charges, etc ) CPI CPI (excluding impact of a consumption tax increase) y/y, % change Core-core CPI (less fresh food and energy) Eating out Items with slower price growth contribution to change from the previous year in Core-core CPI, % Foods CPI Core CPI (less fresh food) Durable goods Note: Personal services exclude mobile phone charges. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. 8

10 - Exports - Exports are in a weak tone in recent s mainly due to IT-related goods. Exports to China are weaker and machine tools orders have decreased Exports volume index by region s.a., 15 =, 3MA December Total Asia U.S. EU MoM(3MA) +1.1%.4% +2.% +4.% Asia Total U.S. EU Exports volume index for China compared with December 15, 3MA, % for China (total) IT-related goods Other Exports volume index by goods compared with December 15, 3MA, % Other Total IT-related goods Automotive related goods Capital goods Machine tools orders from China billion yen y/y, % Order Amount y/y Sources: Ministry of Finance; Japan Machine Tool Builders Association. 9

11 References

12 s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA Housing for sale Total Housing Construction Housing construction starts s.a., ann., thousand units, 3MA Housing for rent Owner-occupied housing Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism s.a., 15 =, 3MA Industrial Production Production by industry IIP (Dec.18) MoM(3MA) +.6% Production machinery Transport equipment s.a., 15 =, 3MA Forecast Public Investment Amount of public construction completed s.a., tril. yen, 3MA Electronic parts and devices Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. 11