BUILDING COUNTRY STRATEGIES FOR THE SDGS -

Transcription

1 BUILDING COUNTRY STRATEGIES FOR THE SDGS - MULTIDIMENSIONAL COUNTRY REVIEWS Jan Rielaender, Head of Multidimensional Country Reviews, OECD Development Centre Paris, 12 February 2016

2 Outline The OECD Development Centre What is new with the SDGs? Why Multidimensionality? What are the Challenges to development countries face? The Multidimensional Country Review Process

3 THE DEVELOPMENT CENTRE

4 The OECD Development Centre The OECD Development Centre helps policy makers in OECD and non-oecd member countries identify effective policy by: Acting as a bridge between OECD and partner economies Producing multidisciplinary analysis on key development issues Providing an informal platform for policy dialogue and mutual learning between OECD and non- OECD countries

5 OECD Development Centre Membership: 26 OECD + 24 EMDE

6 WHAT IS NEW WITH THE SDGS? WHY MULTIDIMENSIONALITY?

7 Which country is this? A lower middle income country 5% average GDP growth since 1990 A primary enrolment rate of 100% since % healthcare coverage of the population 3% fiscal deficit Good reformer in Doing Business Tunisia before the Arab Spring

8 Our members request for multidimensionality? Brought to us as a challenge by our member countries: Need to move towards understanding development as a system of interrelated dependencies Need for advice on strategy, not only sector policies Need to identify targets and policies that reflect national context 8

9 From goals centred on individuals to Development as a system The MDGs: Reduce poverty Provide better health services Make food available to all Provide more schools and teachers The SDGs: Well- Being Sustain ability Equity Growth 9

10 Poverty headcount GDP per employed person Employmentto-population Underweight children Primary enrolment Gender parity (education) Under 5 mortality Maternal mortality HIV prevalence Malaria cases Tuberculosis incidence Improved water source Outcomes of the MDGs were weakly correlated Correlation between annualised progress in key MDG indicators (2000- latest, correlations significant at 5% of better reported) MDG 1 MDG 2 MDG 3 MDG 4 MDG 5 MDG 6 MDG 7 Poverty headcount 1.00 GDP per employed person Employment-to-population Underweight children Primary enrolment Gender parity (education) Under 5 mortality Maternal mortality HIV prevalence Malaria cases Tuberculosis incidence Improved water source Source: Author s calculations based on WDI and MDG databases 10

11 The SDGs are multidimensional Source: LeBlanc, 2015, Towards Integration at Last? The SDGs as a Network of Targets, UNDESA Working Paper No. 141

12 Priorities differ between societies countries need strategies Domain weightings from the Better Life Index: OECD vs non-oecd counties

13 WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES TO DEVELOPMENT COUNTRIES FACE?

14 Sectoral Productivity as % of Average Productivity Huge sectoral productivity gaps make structural transformation a challenge Mining (min) Utilities (pu) Finance (fire) Transport (tsc) Manufacturing (man) Construction (con) Other services (cspsgs) Trade (wrt) Agriculture (agr) Share of Total Employment (%)

15 The job challenge

16 Contrasting demographic challenges Young, fast-growing: 60% of world labour force increase in Africa 2/3 of the 20m entering labour markets each year live in rural areas Between 2010 and 2025: +330m youths in SSA economies Rapid ageing, at lower incomes (Central Asia, E.Asia) Lower demographic dividend Slower productivity growth Challenges of breaking above middle-income Cote d Ivoire, 2015 East Asia, 2005 and 2020 Source: World Population Prospects, 2012

17 The middle income trap example Peru Decomposition of labour productivity in Peru Estimated Total Factor Productivity Base 100= Labour productivity gap decomposition Total Factor Productivity Physical Capital Human Capital % Traditional with human capital adjusted for years of schooling Traditional with human capital adjusted for years of schooling and quality of education Source: based on Penn World Tables, Barro and Lee database on education, Hanushek and Woessmann (2009) database and OECD PISA.

18 Wheel of Well-Being (Kazakhstan) 19

19 THE MULTIDIMENSIONAL COUNTRY REVIEW PROCESS

20 Multidimensional Country Reviews 1. Identify key constraints to development 2. Develop policy recommendations 3. From Paper to Practice Phase I (6 months) Phase II (6 months) Phase III (6 months) - Visioning and gap analysis - Benchmarking - Capability constraints analysis - In-depth analysis and policy recommendations by experts and peers on key constraint - Focus on stakeholder participation - Governmental Learning - Action Plan - Scorecard for policy monitoring

21 PHASE 1 INITIAL ASSESSMENT

22 How do we go about identifying constraints? Development = sustainable improvements in well-being + the country s vision The tree of development: resource flows and capabilities How do you create sustainable GDP growth? How do you ensure unrelated well-being outcomes? Decomposition guides causality analysis Productivity Public services

23 Capabilities The tree of multidimensional development Well-Being Consumption Possibilities Housing and Infrastructure Subjective Well-being Work Health Education and Skills Environmental Quality Empowerment and Civic Engagement Stability Cohesion

24 The capabilities for sustainably delivering well-being

25 Example drivers of inequality in Uruguay Constraints to development can be defined as a proximate cause of underperformance in a development outcome of interest. This definition supposes a causal model of determination of the outcomes of interest. Income inequality Labour income Non-labour income Educational attainment Returns to skills Socioeconomic status Infrastructure (quality) Taxes and Transfers 26

26 The How s Life Well-being Framework 27

27 Well-being and Development? 28

28 Wheel of Well-Being (Kazakhstan) 29

29 Vision and Gap Analysis Cote d Ivoire Où doit être la Côte d'ivoire en 2020? Où est la Côte d'ivoire aujourd hui?

30 Visioning workshops Côte d Ivoire Kazakhstan Peru Côte d Ivoire, Septembre 2014 Kazakhstan, visioning exercise Kazakhstan, December 2015 Peru, February 2015

31 Kazakhstan example of education decomposition Education Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) Pupil-teacher ratio, primary PISA math score (mean score) 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1,50-2,00-2,50-3,00 Public spending on education, total (% of GDP) School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) School enrollment, secondary (% gross) School enrollment, primary (% gross)

32 MDCRs can aid SDG implementation as each component relates to the goals MDCRs Wellbeing Components : Consumption possibilities : SDGs Work Housing and infrastructure Education and Skills Health Vulnerability and equity Social Connections Empowerment Life evaluation Environment Other Analytical Components of MDCRs: Macro-economic stability Productive capabilities Endowments Accessible and efficient finance Effective state Investment Innovation

33 PHASE II IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

34 Example Outputs: Achieving emergence for Côte D Ivoire

35 L accès, la compétitivité et la soutenabilité sont les piliers d une infrastructure performante 36

36 Le système éducatif contribuera à l'émergence en formant la main d'œuvre d aujourd hui et de demain 37

37 Un système fiscal moderne et adapté à l économie ivoirienne est indispensable à la l émergence économique 38

38 FINANCIAL TIMES Because we live in Financial Times Monday 18 May Since 1802 GLOBAL GROWTH SLOW DOWN AFFECTS OIL DEMAND Global growth slow down affects oil producing countries revenues The world s oil producers are increasingly feeling the impact of the global growth slum, as oil and commodity revenues are slashed. Global growth projections a decade ago were overly optimistic. Many countries expected a slowdown in global growth, but not to this level. This had an impact on investment and domestic diversification strategies, noted Christopher Watkins from the International Monetary Fund.

39 THE SUN SHINE WORLD NEWS AND SPORTS WORLD EXCLUSIVES NEW SILK ROAD POLICY EXTENDS TO CULTURE CHINA AND KAZAKHSTAN TO ORGANISE CULTURAL EXCHANGE FESTIVAL Beijing, Sunday 17 May 2030 The economic rapprochement between China and the Central Asian Republics has been well documented in recent years. Economic cooperation has generated significant investment in infrastructure such as road and railway, most notably in Kazakhstan, as China consolidates its New Silk Road strategy. Today, China announced it would be co-organizing a cultural exchange festival with Kazakhstan, including performing arts and a book festival. As we consolidate our relationship it is important for the people of China to learn about Kazakhstani culture, said a representative from the Ministry of Culture.

40 EL PERUANO THE WORLD S FAVOURITE NEWSPAPER - Since 1825 INDIA SAYS: MORE RESOURCES PLEASE! RISE OF THE BRIICS AND INDIAN ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SHOWS NO SIGN OF SLOWDOWN Lima, 29 October 2030 India became Peru's largest buyer of natural resources yesterday. The historic event was marked by both heads of state at a special ceremony in Lima. The Peruvian premier indicated a wish to continue such a fruitful cooperation between the two countries. 'India has been pursuing a number of successful industrialization policies over the last 15 years and these have been rewarding. India's rise has been impressive', noted Andrea Fernandez, analyst at the Lima-based Instituto Peruano de Economia.

41 PHASE III FROM PAPER TO PRACTICE

42 Governmental Learning

43 Scorecard: Well-Being Objective and Expected Results Indicator Level in 2014 Level in 2018 Emerging Level Objective: Increase the level of well-being Satisfaction with living conditions : scale from 0 ( not satisfied ) to 10 (very satisfied) 2,1 (2013) Consumption possibilities are incresaed Per capita income ( PPP constant international USD ) 3,101 4,540 5,009 Poverty is reduced Ratio of population living in poverty according to the national poverty line (% of population) 46% 35% 32% Safety is enhanced Access to improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 21.9% (2012) 37% 45% Life expectancy at birth (years) 51 (2013) The health status of the population is improved Physicians (per persons) 2 (2010) 7 10 Housing conditions are improved In the city or area where you live, are you satisfied with the availability of adequate housing? ( % of respondents satisfied) 47% (2013) 49% 50% 44

44 Scorecard: Well-Being Objective and Expected Results Indicator Level in 2014 Level in 2018 Emerging Level Level of vulnerable employment is reduced Percentage of people in vulnerable unemployment 76% (2002) 68.0% 64% School enrollment, primary (% gross) 77% (2013) 104% 111% Access to education at all levels is increased School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 39% (2013) 66% 80% Quality of road transport infrastructure is improved Economic growth is environmentally sustainable Security level of the population increases Violence is reduced Are you satisfied with the roads and highways? ( % Of respondents being satisfied) CO2 emissions (kg per $ PPA in 2011 GDP) Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city or area where you live? ( % of respondents satisfied ) Global Peace Index (score on a scale of 1 high peace to 5 low peace ) 28% (2013) 0,12 (2011) 46% 55% % 57% 60%

45 Scorecard: Improving financing for individuals and firms Objective and Expected Results Indicator Level in 2014 Level in 2018 Emerging Level Objective: To improve the financing of companies and individuals Credit risk is reduced and better assessed (RA1) The operation of the insurance system is improved (RA2) Bank Credit (% GDP) 20% 27% 30% Population covered by a credit reporting agency ( % of adults 3.0% 14.3% 20.0% Share of non-performing loans (% of gross loans ) 10% 9% 8% Recovery rate ( cents on the dollar ) Volume of long-term deposits ( % of deposits ) 8% 11% 12% National savings are mobilized and their maturity is extended (RA3) Population with savings at a financial institution (% of adults over 15 years old) 9% 13% 15% Financial inclusion is strengthened through new banking solutions ( RA4 ) ; Individuals' confidence in the banking system is increased ( RA5 ) Population with an account (% population over 15 years old) Population with a mobile account (% of adults over 15 years old) 34% 45% 50% 24% 35% 40% Alternative financing solutions to bank loans exist ( RA6 ) Market capitalization of listed companies ( % of GDP) 29% (2012) 34% 37% 46

46 Several countries are currently undertaking MDCRs Morocco Senegal

47 Example findings MDCR of Kazakhstan (Phase I) Diagnostics: Well-being and growth have increased significantly since 2000 Job quality, housing, environmental, and health indicators remain below benchmark levels Corruption and perceptions of corruption are pervasive Key Constraints: Natural-resourcedependency exposes the economy to external risk Concentration of economic clout in the state and large private actors Fragile and underdeveloped financial sector Pervasive corruption Limited implementation capacity Skills mismatch Ineffective environmental regulation

48 MDCR of Peru

49 THANK YOU