Replacement Heifers: Raise em, Buy em, or Just Sale em

Transcription

1 Replacement Heifers: Raise em, Buy em, or Just Sale em Stan Bevers, AFM Professor & Ext. Economist Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service Vernon, Texas Reproductive Management Section Texas A&M Extension Beef Cattle Short Course Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service Texas A&M University

2 3 Things We Will Cover About Replacement Heifer Values What Does It Cost to Raise Them Yourself? What is the Current Market Value? What are They Really Worth?

3 Start with the Easiest Current Market Value Check the market reports Do they fit your current system? Why are they being sold? Stocking rate adjustment Attitude Late breeder Private Treaty Sales

4 Texas Weekly Summary Week Ending July 26,

5 3 Things We Will Cover About Replacement Heifer Values What Does It Cost to Raise Them Yourself? 1,650-2,300 per head What are They Really Worth?

6 Now for the Most Difficult What Does It Cost to Raise Your Own Have to define some things Accumulate the expenses from conception of the heifer calf to her becoming a productive female Cost to produce a weaned heifer on your ranch This is the figure you start with To her being a productive female Bred positive Has a first calf So, a group of heifer calves are born on your place. You identify a group to be potential replacement females in your herd. You grow them to breeding age. You turn the bulls in. Later, you preg check them; sell the opens, watch the rest have their first calf. You then watch them raise that calf (as an immature mother) and hopefully wean her first calf.

7 Raising Your Own Real Life Example Large ranch (3,000 plus cows) that has built their inventory system and accounting system to keep track of specific pieces of their operation, including the cost to raise their own replacement females. Keep approximately heifers each year. Very efficient operation, not in Texas, spring calving. Calve as two year olds Accumulate expense (adjusted for any sells of cull heifers) from their conception to her having her first calf. At this point, she is placed on the depreciation schedule as a fixed asset to be depreciated. Two opportunities for sales: open heifer and/or dry heifer

8 Raising Your Own Real Life Example Potential Heifer Calf Weaned (Oct 1) (654 head) (650 head) (689 head) (600 head) Accumulated Expenses to EOY Transfer to Balance Sheet as Investment in Growing Breeding Stock January 1, 20XX (654 head) (650 head) (689 head) (600 head)

9 Raising Your Own Real Life Example Sych the heifers in May 60 day breeding season; June through July Ultrasound in October Sell open heifers from October to EOY Accumulate all expense from previous year, current year, and adjust (lower) expenses by the cull revenue.

10 Raising Your Own Real Life Example January 1, 20XX (654 head) (650 head) (689 head) (600 head) Current Year Cull Sale Revenue Current Year Accumulated Expenses (153 head) (121 head) (71 head) Remaining Replacement Heifers are Carried to Year 2 as Pregnant Replacement Heifers December 31, 20XX Accumulated Net Expense 1, (501 head) 1, (529 head) (618 head)

11 Raising Your Own Real Life Example Year 2 Pregnant Replacement Heifers To calve in March through April Sell Dry Heifers after April Accumulate Expense from January 1 to Weaning the first calf. She is now considered a fully functional productive female and can be considered a fixed breeding asset on the depreciation schedule.

12 Raising Your Own Real Life Example January 1, 20XX Accumulated Net Expense Current Year Cull Sale Revenue Current Year Accumulated Expenses October 31, 20XX Accumulated Net Expense , (501 head) (51 head) 1, (529 head) (57 head) , (450 head) 1, (472 head) (618 head)

13 Raising Your Own Real Life Example - Summary Potential Heifer Calf Weaned (Oct 1) Accumulated Net Expense to Pregnant RH Accumulated Net Expense to First Calf (654 head) 1, (501 head) 1, (450 head) (650 head) 1, (529 head) 1, (472 head) (689 head) (618 head) (600 head)

14 Raising Your Own Real Life Example - Summary Number 1 consideration: Not everyone can raise calves as cheaply as this ranch. Probably need to add 400/head of weaned calf for many ranches in Texas. Number 2 consideration: How good are you at getting them pregnant? Number 3 consideration: This consideration is often overlooked in heifer development. You have a teenage mother who may not want or have the maternal experience to raise a calf after she has gotten pregnant.

15 3 Things We Will Cover About Replacement Heifer Values What Does It Cost to Raise Them Yourself? Current Example: 1,160-1,410 (or more?) 1,650-2,300 per head What are They Really Worth?

16 Now for the Most Variable What is She Really Worth Today as a Replacement Heifer Simple Equations Difficult and Risky Assumptions Initial Cost of the Investment Annual Income (positive or negative) from the investment Salvage Value at the end of the useful life of the investment Collectively, is she a good investment?

17 What Does a Replacement Heifers Do? PY 1 PY 2 PY 3 PY 4 PY 5 PY 6 PY 7 PY 8 Cull Value (Salvage) Did she have a calf annually? How big was the calf? What did I spent on her annually? What was the calf worth? What is her cull value?

18 Difficult & Risky Assumptions to Make Productivity Level Weaning Percentage SW SPA average = 83.0 Weaning Weights SW SPA Average = 520 Steers = 524 Heifers = 509 Costs to Run a Cow Annually SW SPA Average = (Using 819 average) Future Calf Market Prices FAPRI, USDA, or Mine

19 Price Projections FAPRI & USDA Projection s are for OKC Feeder Steers FAPRI USDA Mine

20 Now, Reverse the Process PY 1 PY 2 PY 3 PY 4 PY 5 PY 6 PY 7 PY 8 Cull Value (Salvage) Net Present Value: Initial Investment plus the Sum of the Flow of Discounted NI s equals today s value of Replacement Females. Keep In Mind: Tomorrow s is not worth today s

21 An Illustration: Buying a Heavy Bred First Calf Heifer Now Cull Value (1, =1,187) Price: W: 93% NI: 452 Price: W: 78.0% DNI: 258 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 284 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 199 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 137 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 73 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 30 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 51

22 An Illustration: Buying a Heavy Bred First Calf Heifer Now 2, Cull Value (1, =1,187) Price: W: 93% NI: 452 Price: W: 78.0% DNI: 258 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 284 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 199 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 137 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 73 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 30 Price: W: 83.0% DNI: 51

23 What Does the 2,301Mean? Given our Assumptions, your long-term investment analysis projects exactly 0.00 over the projected time period on your long-term investment. Pay more than 2,301(given our assumptions) you lose money on your long-term investment Pay less than 2,301 (given our assumptions), you make money on your long-term investment

24 3 Things We Will Cover About Replacement Heifer Values What Does It Cost to Raise Them Yourself? Current Example: 1,160-1,410 (or more?) 1,650-2,300 per head Given Dangerous & Risky Assumptions: 2,301 per head What are They Really Worth?

25 Replacement Heifer Values Current Market Values 1,650 to 2,300 per head Raising them yourself: 1,160 to 1,410 But probably closer to 1,560 to 1,910 per head But, What Are They Really Worth 2,301 per head Given our dangerous and risky assumptions.

26 Replacement Heifer Values The market is always right given the invisible, collective assumptions that the market (buyers collectively) is using. A fourth value that is influencing these values is the value of commercial heifers destined for the beef market. Current value: 1.96 to 2.05, or 1,470 to 1,538 per head.

27 Replacement Heifer Values What Does It Cost to Raise Them Yourself? Current Example: 1,160-1,410 (or more?) 1,650-2,300 per head Given Dangerous & Risky Assumptions: 2,301 per head What are They Really Worth? Commercial Heifers destined for the Beef Market: 1,470-1,538

28 Replacement Heifer Values No easy answers! Every rancher could (and probably should) have a different answer from his neighbor. Margins between the functional use of each heifer is very close. Obviously, the risk is in the unknown. What does the future hold for prices, demand, and weather.

29 Questions/Comments Stan Bevers Texas AgriLife Extension Service ext