The UK Economic and Fiscal Database

Transcription

1 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database Dr Tim Morgan Global Head of Research 2012 edition

2 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database contents About this publication 3 Introduction 5 Prices, incomes & employment from 1996 to Economy from 1996 to Budget summary from to Debt (public and private individual) from to Public spending from to Government revenue from to List of tables by category 38 About the author 40 Please address all editorial enquiries to ukefdb@tullettprebon.com The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 1

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4 About this publication The UK Economic and Fiscal Database Structure Forecasts All forecasts set out in the tables are either official forecasts or are calculated by combining official forecast data. The database contains no Tullett Prebon forecasts. Sources The Office for National Statistics The Tullett Prebon UK Economic & Fiscal Database is designed to provide an impartial contribution to public debate on UK economic and fiscal issues. It presents key data in a consistent and readilyaccessible format. Though an abundance of official data is available, accessing it can prove both time-consuming and baffling. The data series include prices and inflation, budget summaries, taxation, government spending, and public and private debt. In most instances, data is presented both at current and at constant values. The data may be used without restriction, though we request that attribution is given to Tullett Prebon in any published use of this material. The database is divided into the following broad categories, accessible via tabs or links to and from the Home page: Prices, incomes and employment including CPI, RPI, the GDP deflator, individual price series, price indices for many common items, property prices and price/income multiples, weekly incomes, population, employment and unemployment. The economy including analyses of growth, consumption and gross value added. Budget overview summarising public expenditures, government revenues and the annual fiscal balance. Public and individual debt including annual changes, redemptions, interest paid and average interest rates for public debt, plus levels of, and changes in, private individuals secured and unsecured debt. Presentation Typically, tables present historic data in annual amounts or annual averages running from 1996 to 2011 (or from to ). In many instances, data is also shown at constant (2011 or ) values as well as in current money. In all such instances, data is converted to constant values using the broad-basis GDP deflator. Annual changes are sometimes shown, as are values indexed to 2000 or to Where available, forecast data is presented, typically extending to 2016 or to The Bank of England HM Treasury The Department of Energy and Climate Change BP Statistical Review of World Energy* Lloyds Banking Group** Data from the Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0. Adapted from data from the Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0. Public spending broken out by principal categories. Tax revenue showing how much revenue is sourced from each broad category of tax. * Crude oil prices ** Halifax property price data The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 3

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6 Introduction The UK Economic and Fiscal Database Few would dispute that the United Kingdom faces very major economic challenges. If progress is to be made, it is vital that there is informed debate involving politicians, analysts, the media and, above all, the general public. Where matters of economics, business and government are concerned, an informed debate is impossible unless those taking part have ready access to information that is consistent, accurate and relevant. Our intention with The Tullett Prebon UK Economic and Fiscal Database is to contribute to informed debate by supplying such information to anyone interested in these issues. The database is available to anyone for free download from our website, and is written in Microsoft Excel format so that users can copy, link and paste it into their own spreadsheets. The database is provided as a public service, our only request being that attribution is given where information from it is used in published form. There is no shortage of data in the United Kingdom. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) alone makes vast amounts of information available. So, too, do government departments such as H.M. Treasury, the Bank of England, the Debt Management Office (DMO), the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). The problem, even for those familiar with such statistics, lies in finding what you are looking for, and in being sure that what you have found is really what you think it is. For ease of access, the database is divided into six sections. In Prices, incomes and employment, you will find measures of overall inflation, trends in important items such as food, rent and fuel, and information about wages and pensions. The Economy section provides information about output and growth, and breakdowns of the economy by income and by industry, The Budget section shows, in overall terms, how much government receives in tax and how much it spends on public services. Spending and Revenues break out government expenditures and income so that you can see, in greater detail, where government funds come from, and how they are spent. This year, the Debt section has been expanded to show the debts owed by individuals as well as the debt owed on our behalf by the government. Generally, information is shown in up to five different ways. Whilst data at current values shows how much money was earned or spent at the time, data at constant values uses the broad-basis GDP deflator to adjust the figures so that inflation is excluded. For example, the government spent 343bn in the fiscal year, but that was equivalent to 442bn at prices. We also show annual percentage changes for example, the average price of consumer durables increased by 5.6% in Data is sometimes indexed, generally so that 2000 is equal to 100. The average gas bill rose from 100 in 2000 to 254 in 1011 an increase of 154% over that period whereas a 2011 value of 144 shows that food prices increased by 44% between those dates. Finally, percentage contributions reveal, for example, that the government received 26% of its revenue from income tax in , and allocated 18% of its spending to health. Generally speaking, the database covers the period beginning in 1996 (or fiscal year ), with 2011 (and ) being the most recent periods for which historic information is available. Many database tables include forecasts, typically running four or five years into the future, but we cannot emphasise too strongly that these are based on official estimates. There are no Tullett Prebon forecasts anywhere in the database. Some government departments (such as H.M. Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility) supply forecasts for items such as inflation, economic growth, government revenues, public expenditures, debt and unemployment. In some cases, our forecasts combine this information, so that future public spending is expressed at constant values by combining the official forecasts for expenditures and inflation. We created this database as a public service, but have found it extremely useful in our research. We hope that you will find it just as helpful. Dr Tim Morgan The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 5

7 Prices, incomes & employment From 1996 to 2016 Principal inflationary measures Official forecasts Calendar years GDP deflator (2011 = 100) GDP deflator annual change +3.6% +2.7% +2.0% +1.9% +0.6% +1.4% +2.5% +2.4% +2.5% +2.2% +3.2% +2.3% +3.1% +1.7% +2.9% +2.3% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% RPI annual change +2.4% +3.1% +3.4% +1.5% +3.0% +1.8% +1.7% +2.9% +3.0% +2.8% +3.2% +4.3% +4.0% -0.5% +4.6% +5.2% +3.2% +2.3% +2.5% +3.6% +4.0% RPI indexed: 2000 = Consumer Price Index (CPI)* CPI annual change +2.4% +1.8% +1.6% +1.3% +0.9% +1.2% +1.3% +1.4% +1.3% +2.0% +2.3% +2.3% +3.6% +2.1% +3.3% +4.5% +2.8% +1.9% +1.9% +2.0% +2.0% CPI indexed: 2000 = *2005 = 100 Sources: Bank of England, Office for National Statistics Principal inflationary measures Calculated using official forecasts Fiscal years GDP deflator ( = 100) GDP deflator annual change +3.7% +2.7% +1.4% +2.0% +0.4% +1.8% +2.6% +2.1% +2.9% +2.0% +2.9% +2.9% +2.8% +1.6% +3.0% +2.2% +2.7% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% Sources: Bank of England, Office for National Statistics 6 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

8 Selected price changes Official forecasts Annual change CPI +2.4% +1.8% +1.6% +1.3% +0.9% +1.2% +1.3% +1.4% +1.3% +2.0% +2.3% +2.3% +3.6% +2.1% +3.3% +4.5% +2.8% +1.9% +1.9% +2.0% +2.0% Consumer durables +0.8% +0.2% -1.2% -3.1% -3.8% -2.8% -3.0% -2.1% -2.1% -2.5% -1.4% -0.7% -1.8% -1.0% +4.1% +5.6% Food +3.2% +0.1% +1.3% +0.3% -0.3% +3.3% +0.7% +1.3% +0.6% +1.2% +2.1% +4.6% +9.3% +5.3% +3.1% +5.9% Rent +4.5% +3.4% +3.1% +3.0% +3.3% +3.5% +2.6% +1.5% +2.2% +3.4% +2.9% +3.3% +3.6% +2.0% +1.4% +2.5% Council tax & rates +6.8% +7.0% +8.1% +7.0% +6.2% +6.3% +7.5% +10.9% +7.4% +4.5% +4.5% +4.2% +3.7% +2.9% +2.0% +0.5% Water +5.3% +4.5% +5.6% +4.6% -6.2% +0.6% +2.4% +3.8% +5.2% +9.9% +6.8% +6.3% +6.5% +5.1% +1.1% +3.4% Electricity -0.5% -4.8% -4.6% -1.3% -2.0% -0.9% +0.5% +1.0% +5.9% +10.7% +21.7% +8.0% +15.6% +4.5% -2.5% +7.2% Gas +0.1% -1.0% -3.4% -0.6% -2.5% +2.7% +6.3% +1.8% +7.3% +14.8% +31.9% +7.7% +19.8% +13.7% -5.9% +10.6% Source: Office for National Statistics Selected price indices 2000= CPI Consumer durables Food Rent Council tax & rates Water Electricity Gas Source: Office for National Statistics The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 7

9 Prices, incomes & employment continued... Selected exchange rates Official forecasts 1 = (annual average) US dollar $1.56 $1.64 $1.66 $1.62 $1.52 $1.44 $1.50 $1.64 $1.83 $1.82 $1.84 $2.00 $1.85 $1.57 $1.55 $1.60 $1.59 $1.60 $1.59 $1.58 $1.58 Euro n/a n/a n/a Source: Office for National Statistics Selected energy prices Official forecasts Annual average (except petrol) Brent crude oil ($/bbl) $20.67 $19.09 $12.72 $17.97 $28.50 $24.44 $25.02 $28.83 $38.27 $54.52 $65.14 $72.39 $97.26 $61.67 $79.50 $ $ $ $ $99.00 $95.00 Brent crude oil ( /bbl) Annual electricity bill* Change per year -0.7% -4.0% -6.0% -1.5% -2.7% -2.7% -0.4% +0.4% +2.8% +10.9% +18.6% +11.8% +15.1% +3.0% -2.9% +8.5% Indexed, 2000 = Annual gas bill* Change per year +0.9% -0.6% -4.0% -3.2% -3.3% -0.7% +5.8% +3.2% +4.1% +15.9% +22.8% +13.1% +16.6% +13.3% -3.8% +10.0% Indexed, 2000 = Petrol price, /litre** Change per year +5.6% +13.0% +6.8% +7.1% +6.2% +1.1% -7.7% +2.5% +1.3% +7.3% +8.3% +0.1% +16.7% -15.6% +27.0% +13.8% Indexed, 2000 = *Based on standard credit terms **Based on January price of unleaded fuel Source: Calculated using data from Office for National Statistics, Department of Energy and Climate Change, and BP Statistical Review of World Energy 8 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

10 Residential property prices at current values 000s Halifax annual average Average earnings* Price/earnings multiple 3.2x 3.1x 3.1x 3.3x 3.2x 3.6x 4.3x 4.8x 5.2x 5.3x 5.5x 5.7x 4.5x 4.7x 4.5x 4.5x *Average male full-time earnings Source: Lloyds Banking Group Residential property prices at 2011 values 000s Halifax annual average Average earnings* *Average male full-time earnings Source: Calculated using data from Lloyds Banking Group Residential property prices at 2011 values, indexed 2000 = Halifax annual average Average earnings* *Average male full-time earnings Source: Calculated using data from Lloyds Banking Group The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 9

11 Prices, incomes & employment continued... Average weekly earnings at current values per week Whole economy Private sector Public sector ex-financial services Public sector including financial services Public versus private -1.8% -1.7% -0.9% +1.0% +1.0% +1.9% +0.4% -1.6% -1.5% +2.2% +2.6% +1.5% Source: ONS. Includes regular and bonus pay. Average weekly earnings at current values, annual change percent Whole economy +5.1% +3.2% +3.2% +4.4% +4.6% +4.7% +4.9% +3.5% -0.0% +2.2% +2.4% Private sector +5.0% +3.0% +2.8% +4.4% +4.4% +5.1% +5.3% +3.4% -0.9% +2.0% +2.5% Public sector ex-financial services +5.1% +3.9% +4.8% +4.3% +5.3% +3.6% +3.3% +3.5% +2.8% +2.3% +1.5% Source: ONS. Includes regular and bonus pay. Average weekly earnings at current values, indexed 2000 = Whole economy Private sector Public sector ex-financial services Source: ONS. Includes regular and bonus pay. 10 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

12 Average weekly earnings at 2011 values per week Whole economy Private sector Public sector ex-financial services Source: ONS. Includes regular and bonus pay. Average weekly earnings at 2011 values, annual change % Whole economy +3.6% +0.6% +0.9% +1.9% +2.3% +1.4% +2.6% +0.4% -1.7% -0.6% +0.0% Private sector +3.5% +0.5% +0.4% +1.8% +2.2% +1.8% +3.0% +0.3% -2.6% -0.8% +0.1% Public sector ex-financial services +3.6% +1.4% +2.4% +1.8% +3.1% +0.3% +1.0% +0.4% +1.1% -0.5% -0.8% Source: ONS. Includes regular and bonus pay. Average weekly earnings at 2011 values, indexed 2000 = Whole economy Private sector Public sector ex-financial services Source: ONS. Includes regular and bonus pay. The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 11

13 Prices, incomes & employment continued... Population, employment and unemployment Official forecasts Millions Population* of which: Aged 16 and over** Employed** Unemployed** Economically inactive** Claimants** Unemployment rate*** 7.8% 6.5% 6.1% 5.8% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.7% 5.2% 5.5% 5.2% 6.4% 7.8% 7.9% 8.4% *Mid-year estimate **Q4 ***Unemployed as % economically active population Source: ONS State pensions Millions Single person, nominal As % average earnings 17.4% 16.8% 16.5% 16.4% 15.9% 16.1% 16.0% 15.9% 16.0% 15.9% 15.8% 15.9% 15.8% 16.2% 16.3% 17.0% Single person, real Sources: current values, and percentages of average earnings, from DWP abstract of statistics. Real equivalent converted to values using GDP deflator 12 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

14 Economy From 1996 to 2016 Economic summary for calendar years Official forecasts bn GDP at current values ,020 1,069 1,137 1,200 1,263 1,333 1,412 1,441 1,402 1,467 1,516 1,560 1,631 1,717 1,813 1,915 Nominal growth in GDP +6.6% +6.0% +5.6% +5.3% +4.9% +4.6% +4.8% +6.4% +5.6% +5.2% +5.6% +5.9% +2.0% -2.7% +4.6% +3.4% +2.9% +4.6% +5.3% +5.6% +5.6% GDP deflator index (2011 = 100) GDP deflator annual change +3.6% +2.7% +2.0% +1.9% +0.6% +1.4% +2.5% +2.4% +2.5% +2.2% +3.2% +2.3% +3.1% +1.7% +2.9% +2.3% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% GDP at 2011 values 1,100 1,136 1,176 1,215 1,267 1,306 1,334 1,387 1,428 1,471 1,504 1,558 1,542 1,476 1,501 1,516 1,522 1,552 1,594 1,642 1,693 Real growth in GDP +2.9% +3.2% +3.6% +3.3% +4.3% +3.1% +2.2% +3.9% +3.0% +3.0% +2.3% +3.6% -1.1% -4.3% +1.7% +1.0% +0.4% +2.0% +2.7% +3.0% +3.0% Sources: Historic data from Bank of England & H.M. Treasury, forecasts from OBR Economic summary for fiscal years Official forecasts bn GDP at current values ,032 1,092 1,156 1,215 1,274 1,347 1,426 1,418 1,407 1,475 1,521 1,576 1,652 1,740 1,839 1,941 Nominal growth in GDP +6.4% +6.3% +5.4% +6.3% +4.7% +4.3% +5.8% +5.9% +5.1% +4.9% +5.7% +5.9% -0.6% -0.8% +4.9% +3.1% +3.6% +4.8% +5.3% +5.7% +5.5% GDP deflator index (2011 = 100) GDP deflator annual change +3.7% +2.7% +1.4% +2.0% +0.4% +1.8% +2.6% +2.1% +2.9% +2.0% +2.9% +2.9% +2.8% +1.6% +3.0% +2.2% +2.7% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% +2.5% GDP at 2011 values 1,103 1,142 1,186 1,235 1,289 1,320 1,361 1,411 1,442 1,482 1,522 1,567 1,516 1,480 1,508 1,521 1,535 1,569 1,613 1,663 1,712 Real growth in GDP +2.7% +3.5% +3.9% +4.1% +4.3% +2.4% +3.1% +3.7% +2.1% +2.8% +2.7% +3.0% -3.3% -2.4% +1.9% +0.9% +0.9% +2.3% +2.8% +3.1% +3.0% Sources: calculated using historic data from Bank of England & H.M. Treasury and forecasts from OBR The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 13

15 Economy continued... GDP, expenditure basis at current prices bn Household consumption NPI* consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Inventories Net acquisitions of valuables Domestic expenditure , , , , , , , , , , ,539.0 Exports Final expenditure 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,031.7 Imports Statistical discrepancy 1.1 GDP , , , , , , , , , , ,516.2 *Non-Profit Institutions Source: Office for National Statistics 14 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

16 GDP, expenditure basis at 2011 prices bn Household consumption NPI* consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Inventories Net acquisitions of valuables Domestic expenditure 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,539.0 Exports Final expenditure 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,031.7 Imports Statistical discrepancy 1.1 GDP 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,516.2 *Non-Profit Institutions Source: Calculated using data from Office for National Statistics The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 15

17 Economy continued... GDP, expenditure basis at 2011 prices, indexed 2000 = Household consumption NPI* consumption Government consumption Gross fixed capital formation Domestic expenditure Exports Final expenditure Imports GDP *Non-Profit Institutions Source: Calculated using data from Office for National Statistics 16 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

18 GDP, expenditure basis at 2011 prices, annual real changes Household consumption +3.5% +4.2% +4.3% +4.9% +3.3% +2.1% +2.9% +2.5% +2.8% +0.9% +3.0% -1.4% -3.4% +2.1% +1.0% NPI* consumption +4.3% +5.5% +3.3% +5.4% +5.2% +2.6% +2.4% +3.0% +3.4% +1.9% +3.6% +1.0% -2.1% +1.9% +2.9% Government consumption -1.4% +2.1% +6.2% +6.6% +5.4% +6.5% +6.9% +5.3% +4.6% +3.0% +1.2% +3.7% +2.2% -0.7% -1.1% Gross fixed capital formation +3.7% +10.5% +1.5% +2.6% +1.3% +2.6% +1.1% +4.6% +2.4% +4.9% +7.7% -6.1% -15.2% +1.8% -3.7% Domestic expenditure +3.0% +4.9% +4.2% +4.7% +3.5% +2.6% +3.5% +3.5% +3.0% +2.1% +3.6% -1.4% -5.1% +2.4% +0.4% Exports +0.5% -3.9% +1.5% +10.6% +1.5% -1.6% +2.3% +1.7% +8.8% +10.5% -4.3% +9.6% -7.4% +7.7% +7.5% Final expenditure +2.4% +3.0% +3.6% +5.9% +3.1% +1.7% +3.2% +3.1% +4.2% +3.8% +1.9% +0.9% -5.6% +3.6% +2.0% Imports -0.4% +0.8% +4.7% +11.7% +3.1% +0.2% +0.8% +3.6% +8.4% +9.1% -3.5% +7.4% -9.7% +9.7% +5.3% GDP +3.2% +3.6% +3.3% +4.3% +3.1% +2.2% +3.9% +3.0% +3.0% +2.3% +3.6% -1.1% -4.3% +1.7% +1.0% *Non-Profit Institutions Source: Calculated using data from Office for National Statistics The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 17

19 Economy continued... GVA at current prices on SIC 2007 Gross Value Added in bn Agriculture, forestry & fishing Oil, gas & mining Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Wholesale, retail & transport Hotels & restaurants Communication Financial intermediation Real estate Public administration & defence Education Health & social services All other Gross Value Added , , , , , , , , VAT on products duties & taxes on products subsidies on products GDP , , , , , , , , , ,466.6 Statistical discrepancy Source: Office for National Statistics 18 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

20 GVA at current prices on SIC 2003 Gross Value Added in bn Agriculture, forestry & fishing Oil & gas Other mining & quarrying Manufacturing Electricity, gas & water Construction Wholesale & retail Hotels & restaurants Transport & storage Communication Financial intermediation Real estate Public administration & defence Education Health & social services All other Gross Value Added , , , , , , ,255.7 Source: Office for National Statistics The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 19

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22 Budget summary From to Budget summary at current values Official forecasts bn Revenue Expenditures Surplus/(deficit) Source: H.M. Treasury Budget summary at constant values Calculated using official forecasts bn Revenue Expenditures Surplus/(deficit) GDP deflator Source: Calculated using data from H.M. Treasury Budget summary as % GDP Official forecasts bn Revenue 37% 38% 38% 39% 39% 38% 37% 37% 38% 39% 39% 39% 37% 37% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% Expenditures 40% 39% 37% 37% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 41% 41% 41% 44% 48% 47% 46% 44% 44% 43% 41% 39% Surplus/(deficit) -3.4% -0.7% 0.5% 1.7% 1.8% 0.0% -2.3% -3.0% -3.3% -2.9% -2.3% -2.4% -6.6% -11.1% -9.6% -8.3% -5.9% -6.0% -4.4% -2.9% -1.1% Source: H.M. Treasury The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 21

23 Budget summary continued... Budget summary at current values Calculated using official forecasts = Revenue Expenditures Source: Calculated using data from H.M. Treasury Budget summary, changes at constant values Calculated using official forecasts bn Revenue +6.4% +4.5% +5.0% +6.0% -0.0% -0.8% +4.4% +4.3% +5.4% +3.6% +2.6% -5.2% -5.4% +4.2% +1.3% +1.0% +2.7% +3.2% +2.5% +3.7% Expenditures -0.8% +1.4% +1.5% +5.7% +4.9% +5.5% +6.1% +4.9% +4.4% +2.0% +3.0% +5.2% +4.6% +0.3% -1.5% -4.4% +2.8% -0.6% -1.0% -0.8% Source: Calculated using data from H.M. Treasury 22 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

24 Debt (public and private individual) From to Public debt at current values Official forecasts bn Public debt ,023 1,159 1,272 1,365 1,437 1,479 Treaty debt ,002 1,129 1,278 1,403 1,518 1,613 1,681 1,720 Source: H.M. Treasury & Office for National Statistics Public debt as % GDP Official forecasts % Public debt 44% 42% 39% 36% 31% 30% 30% 33% 35% 36% 37% 37% 45% 54% 61% 67% 74% 77% 78% 78% 76% Treaty debt 51% 48% 45% 42% 39% 37% 37% 39% 40% 42% 43% 43% 56% 71% 77% 84% 89% 92% 93% 91% 89% Nominal GDP ,032 1,092 1,156 1,215 1,274 1,347 1,426 1,418 1,407 1,475 1,521 1,576 1,652 1,740 1,839 1,941 Source: H.M. Treasury & Office for National Statistics Public debt at values Calculated using official forecasts bn Public debt ,023 1,129 1,208 1,265 1,299 1,305 Treaty debt ,054 1,154 1,278 1,366 1,442 1,495 1,520 1,517 Source: Calculated using data from H.M. Treasury and Office for National Statistics The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 23

25 Debt (public and private individual) continued... Changes in public debt at current values Calculated using official forecasts bn Opening debt ,023 1,159 1,272 1,365 1,437 Annual deficit/(surplus) Redemptions Other changes Changes during the year Closing debt ,023 1,159 1,272 1,365 1,437 1,479 Source: Calculated using data from H.M. Treasury, Office for National Statistics and Debt Management Office Interest on public debt at current values Calculated using official forecasts bn Average debt ,091 1,216 1,319 Interest paid Average interest rate 8.5% 8.4% 7.3% 8.2% 7.2% 6.6% 6.3% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 6.0% 5.4% 4.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% Interest as % public expenditure 9.2% 8.9% 7.4% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 6.2% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 7.3% Source: Calculated using data from H.M. Treasury and Office for National Statistics 24 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

26 Private (individual) debt at year-end, current values for fiscal years bn Secured ,103 1,200 1,227 1,238 1,241 1,250 Unsecured Total ,098 1,201 1,317 1,430 1,459 1,460 1,453 1,457 Source: Bank of England Changes in private debt, current values for fiscal years bn Secured Unsecured Total Source: Bank of England Private (individual) debt at year-end, current values for calendar years bn Secured ,077 1,186 1,225 1,234 1,238 1,245 Unsecured Total ,074 1,176 1,290 1,407 1,458 1,461 1,452 1,452 Source: Bank of England The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 25

27 Debt (public and private individual) continued... Changes in private debt, current values for calendar years bn Secured Unsecured Total Source: Bank of England Changes in aggregate debt, current values for fiscal years bn Government (deficit) Private (individuals) Total Changes in aggregate debt, current values for fiscal years As % GDP Government (deficit) +0.7% -0.4% -1.7% -1.8% +0.0% +2.3% +2.9% +3.2% +2.9% +2.3% +2.4% +6.8% +11.1% +9.5% +8.3% Private (individuals) +4.1% +4.9% +5.8% +5.6% +7.4% +9.5% +10.4% +9.2% +8.1% +8.6% +8.0% +2.0% +0.1% -0.5% +0.3% Total +4.8% +4.4% +4.1% +3.7% +7.4% +11.8% +13.4% +12.4% +11.0% +10.9% +10.4% +8.8% +11.2% +9.1% +8.6% 26 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

28 Public spending From to Public spending at current values Official forecasts bn Health DfID Protected spending Pensions Education Defence Welfare Protection Transport General government All other Unprotected spending Spending before interest Interest Total spending Memo: GGFCE* Interest Other spending Total Spending *General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Source: H.M. Treasury The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 27

29 Public spending continued... Public spending at values Calculated using official forecasts bn Health DfID Protected spending Pensions Education Defence Welfare Protection Transport General government All other Unprotected spending Spending before interest Interest Total spending Memo: GGFCE* Interest Other spending Total Spending *General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury 28 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

30 Public spending at values, indexed Calculated using official forecasts = Health DfID Protected spending Pensions Education Defence Welfare Protection Transport General government All other Unprotected spending Spending before interest Interest Total spending Memo: GGFCE* Interest Other spending Total Spending *General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 29

31 Public spending continued... Public spending at values, real percentage changes Calculated using official forecasts % Health +3.4% +9.1% +8.7% +7.3% +10.8% +7.6% +5.9% +2.7% +5.0% +4.7% +5.7% -0.4% -0.1% -1.3% +0.9% -0.0% DfID +17.6% +16.2% -32.2% -2.6% +18.2% -0.0% +17.1% -2.8% +6.3% +3.5% +12.2% +10.8% +17.4% -11.4% +18.2% -0.2% Protected spending +4.3% +9.5% +5.7% +6.9% +11.1% +7.3% +6.4% +2.5% +5.1% +4.7% +6.0% +0.1% +0.8% -1.9% +1.8% -0.0% Pensions +4.2% +11.3% +4.7% -0.6% +0.3% +2.7% +2.0% +1.5% +4.0% +5.8% +5.1% +1.6% +3.6% +3.5% +1.7% +1.3% Education +3.1% +8.2% +8.1% +4.3% +9.2% +3.7% +4.9% +1.8% +4.1% +3.4% +4.9% -0.7% +0.8% -6.6% -1.3% -0.1% Defence +2.0% +7.1% -7.1% +3.3% +5.8% +0.2% +3.3% +1.1% +2.0% +5.9% +2.2% +2.0% +1.5% -10.2% +0.5% -3.5% Welfare +5.3% -2.7% +0.9% +7.8% +10.5% +2.5% +2.5% -0.5% +1.6% +6.0% +11.1% -0.3% -0.9% -3.3% -3.4% -0.9% Protection +0.2% +10.0% +11.3% +3.0% +6.1% +5.7% +0.8% +0.5% +1.1% +4.7% -0.7% -4.3% -3.0% -3.2% -3.6% -2.1% Transport +1.4% +4.1% +20.6% +27.6% +7.9% -4.6% +4.1% +13.8% +0.1% -1.3% +7.4% -2.0% -4.3% -1.3% +0.1% +2.2% General government +6.7% -11.6% +29.8% -2.6% +3.1% +14.1% +12.5% +0.2% -2.2% +10.6% -1.6% -4.4% -1.6% -8.3% -3.0% -3.0% All other -1.7% +3.6% +19.5% +19.1% +0.5% +12.9% +6.7% +3.3% +0.9% +9.2% +0.9% -9.2% -22.5% -19.1% +40.7% -11.8% Unprotected spending +3.0% +5.1% +6.8% +6.1% +5.2% +4.4% +3.8% +1.8% +2.3% +5.8% +4.7% -1.6% -2.8% -4.8% +3.2% -1.9% Spending before interest +3.2% +5.9% +6.6% +6.3% +6.2% +4.9% +4.3% +1.9% +2.8% +5.5% +5.0% -1.3% -2.1% -4.2% +3.0% -1.5% Interest -15.4% +3.9% -16.7% -7.8% +4.0% +5.0% +5.7% +4.3% +6.2% -1.7% -1.9% +34.5% +8.4% -8.0% +0.4% +12.6% Total spending +1.5% +5.7% +4.9% +5.5% +6.1% +4.9% +4.4% +2.0% +3.0% +5.2% +4.6% +0.3% -1.5% -4.4% +2.8% -0.6% -1.0% -0.8% Memo: GGFCE* +5.9% +7.4% +5.0% +6.7% +6.5% +5.1% +4.9% +2.1% +1.6% +3.2% +2.1% -0.6% Interest -15.4% +3.9% -16.7% -7.8% +4.0% +5.0% +5.7% +4.3% +6.2% -1.7% -1.9% +34.5% +8.4% -8.0% +0.4% Other spending +0.2% +4.0% +8.6% +5.7% +5.9% +4.6% +3.6% +1.7% +4.3% +8.3% +8.2% -2.1% -3.0% -8.8% +8.2% Total Spending +1.5% +5.7% +4.9% +5.5% +6.1% +4.9% +4.4% +2.0% +3.0% +5.2% +4.6% +0.3% -1.5% -4.4% +2.8% *General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury 30 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

32 Public spending percentage shares Calculated using official forecasts % Health 12.8% 16.8% 14.2% 14.5% 14.9% 15.4% 15.7% 16.4% 16.8% 17.1% 17.2% 17.6% 17.5% 17.7% 17.5% 17.8% 18.4% 18.0% 18.1% DfID 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% Protected spending 13.8% 17.7% 15.1% 15.5% 16.1% 16.2% 16.4% 17.2% 17.6% 17.9% 18.0% 18.4% 18.3% 18.5% 18.5% 18.9% 19.4% 19.2% 19.3% Pensions 15.6% 16.2% 18.7% 19.2% 20.2% 20.1% 19.0% 17.9% 17.6% 17.2% 17.1% 17.3% 17.4% 17.4% 17.7% 18.6% 20.1% 19.9% 20.3% Education 11.8% 12.1% 12.3% 12.4% 12.7% 13.1% 13.0% 13.4% 13.2% 13.3% 13.3% 13.4% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.1% 12.6% 12.6% Defence 8.0% 7.6% 8.1% 8.1% 8.2% 7.3% 7.1% 7.1% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2% 6.1% Welfare 17.6% 16.2% 16.6% 17.2% 15.9% 15.2% 15.6% 16.2% 15.9% 15.6% 15.2% 15.0% 15.1% 16.0% 15.9% 16.0% 16.2% 15.3% 15.2% Protection 4.6% 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% 5.5% 5.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5% Transport 1.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% General government 1.6% 1.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% All other 14.1% 11.0% 9.7% 9.4% 9.2% 10.5% 11.9% 11.3% 12.1% 12.4% 12.5% 12.3% 12.8% 12.3% 11.1% 8.8% 7.4% 10.2% 9.0% Unprotected spending 75.1% 73.1% 76.0% 77.1% 76.7% 78.0% 78.6% 77.9% 77.5% 77.1% 76.9% 76.4% 76.8% 76.9% 75.3% 74.3% 74.0% 74.4% 73.4% Spending before interest 88.9% 90.8% 91.1% 92.6% 92.7% 94.2% 95.0% 95.1% 95.1% 95.0% 94.9% 94.7% 95.1% 95.4% 93.8% 93.2% 93.4% 93.6% 92.7% Interest 11.1% 9.2% 8.9% 7.4% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 6.2% 6.8% 6.6% 6.4% 7.3% Total spending 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Memo: GGFCE* 47.1% 47.0% 48.2% 50.2% 51.0% 51.0% 51.6% 51.8% 52.0% 52.2% 52.3% 51.6% 50.6% 49.4% 48.9% Interest 11.1% 9.2% 8.9% 7.4% 7.3% 5.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 6.2% Other spending 41.7% 43.8% 43.0% 42.4% 41.7% 43.2% 43.3% 43.2% 43.1% 42.8% 42.6% 43.2% 44.5% 46.0% 44.9% Total Spending 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% *General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 31

33 32 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

34 Government revenue From to Government revenue at current values Official forecasts bn Income tax* National Insurance Corporation tax* VAT** Fuel duties Vehicle excise duties Business rates Council tax Tobacco duties Alcohol duties Other receipts Interest & dividends Miscellaneous income*** Total revenue *Net of tax credits **Net of refunds ** Includes air passenger duty, aggregates levy, insurance premium tax, landfill tax and climate change levy Source: H.M. Treasury The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 33

35 Government revenue continued... Government revenue at constant values Official forecasts bn Income tax* National Insurance Corporation tax* VAT** Fuel duties Vehicle excise duties Business rates Council tax Tobacco duties Alcohol duties Other receipts Interest & dividends Miscellaneous income*** Total revenue *Net of tax credits **Net of refunds ** Includes air passenger duty, aggregates levy, insurance premium tax, landfill tax and climate change levy Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury 34 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

36 Government revenue at constant values, real percentage changes Official forecasts % Income tax* +11% +5% +13% +1% -1% +2% +5% +4% +7% -0% -2% -6% +1% -2% -1% +4% +6% +4% +5% National Insurance +6% +0% +7% +2% -0% +10% +5% +7% -1% +12% -6% -2% -2% +2% +1% +3% +3% +4% +4% Corporation tax* -3% +12% -6% -3% -10% -5% +14% +24% +3% +2% -9% -19% +14% -1% +1% -3% +0% -2% +5% VAT** +2% +6% +3% +2% +1% +7% +3% -2% +3% +1% -5% +6% +14% +10% +1% +1% +1% +1% +1% Fuel duties +10% +2% +0% -5% -2% +1% -1% -2% -2% +3% -4% +5% +1% -4% -1% +0% +0% +2% +1% Vehicle excise duties +3% +0% -11% -4% +7% +2% -5% +4% -1% +3% +1% -2% +1% -2% -1% -4% -2% -2% -2% Business rates +1% +1% +9% +2% +0% -3% -1% +4% +3% -1% +4% +1% -2% +2% +4% +4% +1% -1% +3% Council tax +8% +5% +9% +6% +6% +10% +4% +4% +1% +2% +2% +2% -1% -1% -2% +3% +1% +1% +2% Tobacco duties -4% -32% +33% +1% +1% -2% -3% -3% -2% -3% -1% +6% +0% +2% +0% -2% -1% -0% +0% Alcohol duties +2% +8% +1% +4% +2% +2% +1% -3% -0% +1% -0% +7% +0% +3% +3% +0% +1% +4% +3% Total revenue -3% +1% +8% -9% +8% -8% +13% +12% +6% -2% -3% -14% +3% -12% +3% +1% +1% +1% +2% *Net of tax credits **Net of refunds ** Includes air passenger duty, aggregates levy, insurance premium tax, landfill tax and climate change levy Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 35

37 Government revenue continued... Government revenue at constant values, indexed Official forecasts = Income tax* National Insurance Corporation tax* VAT** Fuel duties Vehicle excise duties Business rates Council tax Tobacco duties Alcohol duties Total revenue *Net of tax credits **Net of refunds ** Includes air passenger duty, aggregates levy, insurance premium tax, landfill tax and climate change levy Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury 36 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

38 Government revenue percentage contributions Official forecasts % of total Income tax* 24% 26% 26% 27% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 28% 27% 28% 28% 27% 26% 25% 26% 27% 27% 27% National Insurance 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17% 17% 18% 17% 18% 18% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% Corporation tax* 10% 9% 10% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% VAT** 16% 16% 16% 15% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 17% 18% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 18% Fuel duties 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% Vehicle excise duties 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Business rates 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Council tax 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Tobacco duties 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% Alcohol duties 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Gross operating surplus 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% Dividends & interest 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Other 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% Total revenue 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% *Net of tax credits **Net of refunds Source: Calculated using data sourced from H.M. Treasury The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 37

39 List of tables By category 1 Price and inflation data Principal inflationary measures, calendar years Principal inflationary measures, fiscal years Selected price changes, annual Selected price indices, 2000= Selected exchange rates Selected energy prices Residential property prices at current values Residential property prices at 2011 values Residential property prices at 2011 values, indexed Average weekly earnings at current values Average weekly earnings at current values, annual change Average weekly earnings at current values, indexed Average weekly earnings at 2011 values Average weekly earnings at 2011 values, annual change Average weekly earnings at 2011 values, indexed Population, employment and unemployment State pensions 12 2 Summary of the economy Economic summary for calendar years Economic summary for fiscal years GDP, expenditure basis at current prices GDP, expenditure basis at 2011 prices GDP, expenditure basis at 2011 prices, indexed GDP, expenditure basis at 2011 prices, annual changes Gross Value Added at current prices on SIC Gross Value Added at current prices on SIC Budget Summary Budget summary at current values Budget summary at constant values Budget summary as % GDP Budget summary at constant values, indexed Budget summary, changes at constant values The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition

40 4 Debt (public and private individual) Public debt at current values Public debt as % GDP Public debt at values Changes in public debt at current values Interest on public debt at current values Private (individual) debt at year-end, current values for fiscal years Changes in private debt, current values for fiscal years Private (individual) debt at year-end, current values for calendar years Changes in private debt, current values for calendar years Changes in aggregate debt, current values for fiscal years, bn Changes in aggregate debt, current values for fiscal years, as % GDP 26 6 The public finances: taxes and other revenues Government revenue at current values Government revenue at constant values Government revenue at constant values, real percentage changes Government revenue at constant values, indexed Government revenue percentage contributions 37 5 The public finances: expenditures Public spending at current values Public spending at values Public spending at values, indexed Public spending at values, real percentage changes Public spending percentage shares 31 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition 39

41 About the author Dr Tim Morgan Tullett Prebon s Strategy Insights research programme, under the direction of Dr Tim Morgan, seeks to stimulate debate on critical issues that confront us today in the wake of the recent financial crisis. At the heart of the research programme is a recognition that all prior assumptions, including the supposed inevitability of globalisation, are now open to question. You can view an archive of his research here. Tim read history and political philosophy at Emmanuel College, Cambridge before joining stockbrokers Wood Mackenzie as a trainee in He moved to Montagu Loebl Stanley the following year, shortly thereafter assuming responsibility for the firm s oil and gas research. In 1985, he joined the stockbroking subsidiary of Exco, which became part of Banque Indosuez in After a short period with a boutique broker, he established an energy sector research consultancy in During this period he developed the value-based VVM analysis system. Between 1995 and 2006, Tim was consultant energy analyst at stockbrokers Collins Stewart. He joined Shore Capital Group, again as a consultant energy analyst, in May 2007, but, in February 2009, was invited to formalise a role that he had been carrying out for some time that of economic and market strategist. Since September 2009, Tim has been Global Head of Research at Tullett Prebon plc. Though his research has covered a wide range of issues including global economic prospects, geopolitics, fiscal sustainability and inter-generational resource transfers, his main focus is on the new discipline of Exponential Energy Economics (EEE). This new philosophy argues that the global economy consists of a series of population, economic and financial exponentials made possible only by exponential access to surplus energy, and addresses the issue of what might happen if the energy exponential were to continue to weaken. This issue is to be explored in more detail in his forthcoming book, provisionally entitled Life After Growth. Tim s extra-curricular interests focus on defence issues, the environment, music and community involvement. He has a particular interest in warships, has published a book on the subject, and has relished time spent at sea with the Royal Navy, believing that few experiences can equal taking off from an aircraft carrier or participating in amphibious exercises with the Royal Marine Commandos. 40 The UK Economic and Fiscal Database 2012 edition