Interest Rates Research

Transcription

1 Interest Rates Research Prepared for the Money Advice Service August 2014 The Nursery Research and Planning Ltd Wardour St, London W1F 0TA Tel: +44 (0)

2 Methodology Awareness of interest rates Financial situation Actions taken to cover extra payments 5. Summary

3 Methodology 3

4 Methodology How Online survey 5 minute interview Who Nationally representative sample recruited from Research Now access panel 3,007 interviews in total Fixed rate mortgage ending in next 18 months (1,172) Variable rate and not changing in 12 months (1,270) Variable rate and changing in next 12 months (565) When Fieldwork conducted 22nd 28th July

5 Sample Profile Count 3007 % 100% Gender Male Female Age % 62% 1 Region East of England East Midlands London (Central) London (Outer) North East North West Northern Ireland Scotland South East (excl London) South West Wales West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber % 2% 1 Mortgage Type Variable, no change in 12m Variable, change in next 12m End of Fixed within 18m % 1 3 Social grade ABC1 C2DE % 5

6 Awareness of interest rates 6

7 Nearly everyone knows the monthly amount they are paying for their mortgage Aware of monthly payment amount % 2% 3% Yes No Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q9. Do you know the amount of your monthly payment on your current mortgage? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 7

8 Over a quarter don t know what interest rate their mortgage is on Aware of mortgage interest rate 72% 70% 7 73% Yes No 2 30% 2 2 Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q8. Do you know what interest rate you are on for your mortgage? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 8

9 Females are less likely to be aware of their mortgage interest rate along with those who live in the north and who are classified as C2DE Aware of mortgage interest rate 72% % 63% 7 7 Yes No 2 32% Female North Midlands South ABC1 22% Male 3 3 Gender Region C2DE Social grade Q8. Do you know what interest rate you are on for your mortgage? Base varies 9

10 Awareness is also lower among the less affluent and those who claim to be living slightly/ well beyond their Aware of mortgage interest rate 72% 6 73% % 60% 5 Yes No 2 3 < 40k 2 40k to 59k Income 21% 60k+ 22% 30% Well within Slightly within 40% 4 Slightly beyond Well beyond Financial situation Q8. Do you know what interest rate you are on for your mortgage? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 10

11 The vast majority claim to be aware that interest rates could rise, though those with fixed rate are slightly less aware Awareness that interest rates may rise 92% Yes No Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q10 Are you aware that interest rates may rise in the following months? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 11

12 Younger people are less likely to be aware of a rise in interest rates, along with those who are struggling financially Awareness that interest rates may rise 6 92% 8 93% % 90% Yes No 32% Age Well within Slightly within Slightly beyond Well beyond Financial situation Q10 Are you aware that interest rates may rise in the following months? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 12

13 Most people have looked at interest rates since 2009, particularly those who are looking to change more imminently Looked at interest rates since % Yes No 20% 22% 13% 21% Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q6. Have you looked at your interest rates for whatever purpose since 2009? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 13

14 Females and C2DE s are less likely to have looked at interest rates since 2009 Looked at interest rates since % 7 83% 82% 72% Yes No 20% 1 22% 1 Male Female ABC1 Gender 2 C2DE Social grade Q6. Have you looked at your interest rates for whatever purpose since 2009? Base varies 14

15 Those who are living beyond their are also less likely to have looked at interest rates Looked at interest rates since % 7 82% Yes No 20% 2 < 40k k to 59k 60k+ Income 2 22% Well within Slightly within Slightly beyond 3 Well beyond Financial situation Q6. Have you looked at your interest rates for whatever purpose since 2009? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 15

16 41% have looked into the impact of a 1% rate rise Calculated impact of 1% rise 41% 5 40% 60% 4 53% 3 61% Yes No Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q16a. Have you calculated what an increase of 1% on the interest rate of your mortgage would mean for you? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 16

17 .. Females, C2DE s and those who are less comfortable financially are less likely to have looked into this Calculated impact of 1% rise 41% % Male 43% 5 Female ABC1 Gender 3 6 C2DE Social grade % % % 4 62% 72% 6 51% < 40k 40k to 60k+ 59k Well Slightly Slightly Well within within beyond beyond Income Financial situation Yes No Q16a. Have you calculated what an increase of 1% on the interest rate of your mortgage would mean for you? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 17

18 Around a third have investigated the impact of a 2% rise Calculated impact of 2% rise % % 33% 6 Yes No Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q16b. Have you calculated what an increase of 2% on the interest rate of your mortgage would mean for you? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 18

19 Again, females and those living slightly or well beyond their are less likely to have calculated the impact of a 2% rise Calculated impact of 2% rise % 41% 71% 60% Male 5 Female Gender Well within 31% 6 22% % Yes No Slightly within Slightly Well beyond beyond Financial situation Q16b. Have you calculated what an increase of 2% on the interest rate of your mortgage would mean for you? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 19

20 Only a quarter have looked at the potential impact of a 3% rate rise Calculated impact of 3% rise % 2 7 Yes No Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q16c. Have you calculated what an increase of 3% on the interest rate of your mortgage would mean for you? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 20

21 Financial situation 21

22 The vast majority of people think they are living within their, though 13% appear to be struggling Lifestyle 40% Well within your Slightly within your 4 1% 51% 50% 43% 11% 1% Variable, no change in 12m 1 1% Variable, change in next 12m Slightly beyond your Well beyond your 13% 1% Fixed, ending within 18m Q20. Do you consider your Financial situation is Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 22

23 Most people admit to being financially stretched when they got their mortgage How stretched financially when got mortgage 31% 52% Not stretched at all Stretched a little Stretched a lot Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q7. How stretched financially were you when you got your mortgage? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 23

24 It is females, those aged and those earning under 40K who are more likely to have been financially stretched when they got a mortgage How stretched financially when got mortgage 31% 52% 3 51% 2 53% Male Female 23% 33% % 52% 23% % < 40k Gender Age 30% k to 59k 60k+ Not stretched at all Stretched a little Stretched a lot Income Q7. How stretched financially were you when you got your mortgage? Base varies 24

25 Under half claim to have a contingency in place should rates rise Contingency plan in place % Yes No % 5 Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q18. Do you have a contingency plan in place for when interest rates raise? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 25

26 Females, those aged and those earning under 40K are less likely to have a contingency plan in place Contingency plan in place 4 40% 4 42% 3 42% 53% 4 5 Yes 5 51% Male 60% Female Gender Age 55+ < 40k 5 40k to 59k No 4 60k+ Income Q18. Do you have a contingency plan in place for when interest rates raise? Base varies 26

27 The vast majority claim that the change in interest rates will affect their finances, most think it will hit their disposable income Impact on finances if interest rates increase 23% % % 13% 1 1 Variable, no change in 12m Variable, change in next 12m Fixed, ending within 18m It will not affect me as I have other sources of income I will have to cut back in other areas My disposable income will decrease This will have a big impact on my finances Q11. Which one of the following statements best describes the impact on your finances if interest rates increase? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 27

28 Females, along with the younger age groups are more likely to think they ll be affected Impact on finances if interest rates increase 1 13% 23% It will not affect me as I have other sources of income 23% 2 I will have to cut back in other areas 4 My disposable income will decrease This will have a big impact on my finances % 41% % Male Female Gender Age Q11. Which one of the following statements best describes the impact on your finances if interest rates increase? Base varies 28

29 As expected, those who earn less and are living well beyond their are more likely to agree the rise will impact their finances Impact on finances if interest rates increase 23% 11% % % 1 I will have to cut back in other areas % My disposable income will decrease 31% 22% < 40k 53% It will not affect me as I have other sources of income 40k to 59k 60k+ Well within Income Slightly within Slightly beyond This will have a big impact on Well beyond my finances Financial situation Q11. Which one of the following statements best describes the impact on your finances if interest rates increase? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 29

30 Nearly half claim that they would struggle with payment increases of up to, and around, 100. People on a fixed mortgage are less able to cover rises in payments Point at which an increase would be difficult to cover 11% 13% Over 1,000 Over % 11% Over % 20% 23% 2 Over 150 Over 100 Over 70 11% Variable, no change in 12m Variable, change in next 12m Fixed, ending within 18m Over 50 Up to 50 Q12. If your monthly mortgage payments increase as a consequence of interest rates rise at what point would an increase become difficult to cover? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 30

31 Females, younger age groups and those living in the north and midlands say they are more likely to struggle with payment increases up to, and around, 100 Point at which an increase would be difficult to cover % % 11% 23% 22% 11% 11% 23% 2 22% 11% 11% Male Female Gender % 11% 21% % 1 20% 1 Over 1,000 Over 500 Over Over 150 Over % Over 70 Over 50 Midlands South 11% North Age Up to 50 Region Q12. If your monthly mortgage payments increase as a consequence of interest rates rise at what point would an increase become difficult to cover? Base varies 31

32 For those who live well beyond their, 8 would struggle with payments up to, and around, 100 Point at which an increase would be difficult to cover 2% 13% 1 11% 1 23% % 1 < 40k 13% 2 3% 40k to 59k Income 0% 1 Over 200 Over % 2 22% 2 13% 3% 2% 60k+ Over 1,000 Over 500 1% Over % 1 1 Well within Slightly within Slightly beyond 52% Over 70 Over 50 Up to 50 Well beyond Financial situation Q12. If your monthly mortgage payments increase as a consequence of interest rates rise at what point would an increase become difficult to cover? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 32

33 If payments increased by 200, a substantial proportion of people would be struggling within the first few months Length of time could cope with increase of 200 per month A year or more 41% 3 33% 50% 7-12 months 1 13% 5-6 months months 21% 0-2 months 1 13% 1 1 Variable, no change in 12m Variable, change in next 12m Fixed, ending within 18m Q13. How long could you cope with paying the mortgage if it increased by 200 per month as a result of an interest rates rise? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 33

34 Women, younger people and those living slightly beyond their would struggle most with a 200 increase Length of time could cope with increase of 200 per month 41% % 43% 4 51% 60% 1 11% % Male 11% Female Gender 11% 13% 13% Age A year or more 7-12 months 5-6 months % 13% 1 21% 23% 11% % 3-4 months 13% 0-2 months Well Slightly Slightly Well within within beyond beyond Financial situation Q13. How long could you cope with paying the mortgage if it increased by 200 per month as a result of an interest rates rise? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 34

35 Over half claim it would be difficult to cover additional payments of 200, whilst 1 would not be able to cover the payments at all Ability to cover payment increase of % 2 2 Easy to cover Hard to cover % 13% 5 63% I would not be able to cover the extra payment 1 Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q17. If your monthly payments rose by 200 would you find it Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 35

36 Females are more likely to say they d not be able to cope or would find it difficult with a 200 increase, along with those who are younger and living in the North/ Midlands Ability to cover payment increase of % 1 62% 5 53% 22% % Female % 3 Male Gender Age 1 1 I would not be able to cover the extra payment 5 61% North Midlands Hard to cover 3 Easy to cover South Region Q17. If your monthly payments rose by 200 would you find it Base varies 36

37 A quarter of C2DE s and those under 40K say they would be able to cover the extra payment and 52% of those living beyond their say they couldn t cope Ability to cover payment increase of % 2 62% 31% 6 50% 4 Easy to cover 2 1 ABC1 Hard to cover 6 52% 52% 42% I would not be able to cover the extra payment % C2DE Social grade < 40k 40k to 59k Income 60k+ Well within Slightly within Slightly beyond 0% Well beyond Financial situation Q17. If your monthly payments rose by 200 would you find it Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 37

38 Actions taken to cover extra payments 38

39 A quarter of those who are looking to change their variable mortgage or are on a fixed rate mortgage have spoken to a lender or broker Whether spoken to lender/broker in last 3 months 1 82% % 7 7 Yes No Variable, Variable, Fixed, no change in 12m change in next 12m ending within 18m Q15. Have you spoken to your lender or a broker in the last 3 months to review your mortgage situation? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 39

40 Those who are younger and living in the south are more likely to have spoken to a lender/ broker in the past 3 months Whether spoken to lender/broker in last 3 months 82% % 8 82% 7 No Yes % North Midlands South Age Region Q15. Have you spoken to your lender or a broker in the last 3 months to review your mortgage situation? Base varies 40

41 Over half would adjust their lifestyle to cover a rise in mortgage rates. Around a fifth would struggle to find the money Sources of money to cover increase in payments Variable, no change in 12m Variable, change in next 12m Fixed, ending within 18m Change life habits/cut back From savings I would start to budget when the interest rate rise announcement is made 33% 33% 32% 33% I will find an extra job 1 1 Ask for help from friends & family Take away my voluntary contribution to a pension Put it on my credit card 3% Pay day loan 2% 1% 2% 2% Other I would really struggle to find the extra money % 22% Q14. Where would you find the money to cover the increase in your repayments? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 41

42 Nearly a quarter of females say they d struggle to find extra money to cover a payments increase. Younger age groups say they d struggle and those living in the North and Midlands Sources of money to cover increase in payments Male Female Change life habits/cut back 5 52% % From savings % % 3 I would start to budget when the interest rate rise announcement is made 33% 32% 3 30% 3 33% 33% 3 31% I will find an extra job % 1 1 Ask for help from friends & family 1 Take away my voluntary contribution to a pension 3% Put it on my credit card 3% Pay day loan 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% Other I would really struggle to find the extra money 1 23% 21% 20% 21% 22% 1 North Midlands South Q14. Where would you find the money to cover the increase in your repayments? Base varies 42

43 Those who are living slightly beyond their indicate they are less likely to take action to curb costs than those living slightly within their Sources of money to cover increase in payments Well within Slightly within Slightly beyond Well beyond Change life habits/cut back 5 50% 63% 53% 2 From savings 3 41% 33% 21% I would start to budget when the interest rate rise announcement is made 33% I will find an extra job Ask for help from friends & family 13% Take away my voluntary contribution to a pension Put it on my credit card 3% Pay day loan 2% 2% 2% 2% Other I would really struggle to find the extra money 1 21% 3 60% Q14. Where would you find the money to cover the increase in your repayments? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 43

44 Cutting back on everyday luxuries and leisure activities is a popular of cover extra payments. Only 32% would shop around for cheaper suppliers Actions to meet monthly re-payments if rates rise Variable, no change in 12m Variable, change in next 12m Fixed, ending within 18m Make cut backs at home Cutting back on going out (restaurants, cinema, pubs) Just living within my Using my savings See if I can find a cheaper provider for my essential bills Giving up holidays Delaying essential repairs/work on my household Giving up my gym/club membership 5 50% 4 32% 32% % % % 5 50% 41% 3 40% 33% 2 13% 5 53% 4 32% 3 32% 2 13% Cutting back or taking away my voluntary contribution to my pension 11% Selling my car or other valuable items (gold/silver etc.) Change my travel arrangement to work Revising my childcare options 3% 3% 2% 2% Renting out my property and move back with friends and family 3% 2% 3% Other 11% Q19. Which of the following actions will you take to meet your monthly re-payment if interest rates rise? Base: All respondents (3,007), Variable not changing in 12m (1,270), Variable changing in 12m (565), Fixed rate ending in 18m (1,172) 44

45 Those aged 54 years and under would be more likely to make cut backs at home and cut back on going out Actions to meet monthly re-payments if rates rise Make cut backs at home Cutting back on going out (restaurants, cinema, pubs) Just living within my Using my savings See if I can find a cheaper provider for my essential bills Giving up holidays Delaying essential repairs/work on my household Giving up my gym/club membership Cutting back or taking away my voluntary contribution to my pension Selling my car or other valuable items (gold/silver etc.) Change my travel arrangement to work Revising my childcare options Renting out my property and move back with friends and family Other Male Female % % 50% 51% 5 51% 40% 4 32% % 43% % 41% 3 32% % 32% % % 2 23% 2 23% % 1 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% *% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1 Q19. Which of the following actions will you take to meet your monthly re-payment if interest rates rise? Base varies 45

46 Most people would take some action to curb their spending regardless of their financial status, though those who are slightly within or beyond their are the most likely to make cutbacks Actions to meet monthly re-payments if rates rise Make cut backs at home Cutting back on going out (restaurants, cinema, pubs) Just living within my Using my savings See if I can find a cheaper provider for my essential bills Giving up holidays 5 43% 63% Slightly beyond 62% 50% 43% % 4 32% % % % Delaying essential repairs/work on my household 2 30% 3 2 Giving up my gym/club membership Cutting back or taking away my voluntary contribution to my pension Selling my car or other valuable items (gold/silver etc.) Change my travel arrangement to work Revising my childcare options Renting out my property and move back with friends and family Other 11% 3% 3% 2% 3% 0% 3% 3% 3% 20% Well within Slightly within Well beyond 4 Q19. Which of the following actions will you take to meet your monthly re-payment if interest rates rise? Base varies (well beyond has low base size of 25) 46

47 Summary of findings

48 Summary Almost everyone is aware of the monthly amount they are paying for their mortgage, however, 2 do not know what interest rate their mortgage is on Awareness is lower among females with 3 admitting they do not know their mortgage interest rate. It is also lower among those living in the north (32%), C2DE s (3), those on a salary of less than 40K (3) and those who say they re living well beyond their (4) Overall, the majority of people (92%) know that interest rates could rise although some groups of people are less aware than others of those aged years and 32% of those who say they re living well beyond their admit they are unaware of a potential rise in interest rates When it comes to calculating the impact of an increase in interest rates, 41% have looked into an impact of a 1% rate rise, 3 have investigated a 2% rise and 2 a 3% rise However, again, it is females and those belonging to a lower socio-economic group who are less likely to have looked into a rise in interest rates. When it comes to calculating a 1% rise, 6 of females and 6 of those earning under 40K say they have not looked into this and 6 of those living beyond their have not investigated this 48

49 Summary 8 claim an increase in rates would impact their finances, but only 4 say that they have a contingency plan in place should interest rates increase 60% of females, 5 of year olds and 6 of those earning less than 40K admit to not having a contingency plan, making them more vulnerable to any increases in interest rates Nearly half (4) of mortgage holders claim that they would struggle with payment increases up to, and around 100. If monthly payments rose to 200, 72% say they would find payments difficult to cover The key groups that would struggle are females, younger people, those living in the north and midlands, C2DE s, those on a lower salary and people with fixed rate mortgages Overall, 1 have of mortgage holders have contacted their mortgage provider or broker in the last 3 months to review their mortgage terms. This falls to only amongst those who are on a variable rate but not looking to change, but rises to 2 of those who are on a variable or fixed rate and looking to change in the near future Mortgage reviews were most prominent amongst year olds and people based in the south. 49

50 Summary If interest rates do rise, 5 felt that they would need to change their lifestyle in order to cover the extra costs. 1 claim that they would struggle to find the money and would have to take more urgent steps like an extra job (1), credit card () and payday load (2%). The groups who were most likely to struggle included women (23% vs of men), year olds (20% vs for 55+ year olds), and the North and Midlands (21% and 22% respectively vs. 1 in the south) Those who are living beyond their are more likely to struggle with further cutbacks and lifestyle changes and have less resources to dip in compared to whose living within their. Spending on everyday luxuries are the most likely to be hit if the interest rate rises 5 would make cutbacks at home and 50% claim they would cutback on going out These everyday cutbacks would be strongest amongst year olds Only 32% would shop around for cheaper suppliers for essential bills More extreme measures include: cutting back on pension contributions (), selling a car or valuables () and renting out their property (3%) year olds ae more likely to take these actions than other age groups 50

51 Conclusions The results show a troubling pattern Awareness and planning for rising interest rates is weakest amongst those who are most vulnerable people on lower incomes and living beyond their Engaging with these people is a priority, but also likely to be very challenging, as they show less willingness or ability to make cutbacks and lifestyle changes. Women also show consistently lower levels of awareness and planning compared to men The reasons behind this require further investigation But it suggests that women may need to be approached in a slightly different way to men, in terms of media and messaging Conversely, awareness and planning for an interest rate rise is relatively high amongst people with high incomes and those based in the south where payment rises are likely to sharpest. Indicating that communications need to be focused on other regions, where people may perceive the impact on payments to be lower 51

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