Wealth in Canada: Recent Developments in Micro and Macro Measurement. Catherine Van Rompaey (Statistics Canada)
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1 Wealth in Canada: Recent Developments in Micro and Macro Measurement Catherine Van Rompaey (Statistics Canada) Presented and Discussed by Thomas Crossley (Essex and IFS) 34th IARIW General Conference August 22,2016 Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
2 Introduction Overview Overview This paper provides: a retrospective on macro household wealth measurement in Canada a retrospective on micro household wealth measurement in Canada a description of efforts on micro-macro linkage, and particularly new distributional tables some illustrative results. Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
3 Introduction Motivation Motivation Household wealth is a key policy concern in Canada adequacy of the pension system effects of real estate bubbles sustainability of rising consumer debt. Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
4 Macro retrospective The Household Sector in the National Balance Sheet Accounts Statistics Canada has had a long program of developing household sector balance sheets 1997 integrated sector accounts 2000s improved frequency, valuation of some tradeable securities 2010 pension satellite account (covers entire retirement system) 2011 new finanancial indicators (household debt to gdp, debt service ratio, more) alignment with SNA remaining assets moved to market valuation 2012 NPISH broken out 2015 Acturarial valuation of pensions Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
5 Macro retrospective The Household Sector in the National Balance Sheet Accounts Future plans include: From-whom-to-whom detail in FA richer understaning of exposure 2000s improved frequency, valuation of some tradeable securities Interest and Dividends Matrix coherence Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
6 Micro restrospective Micro data on household wealth Occasional asset and debt modules in the Survey of Consumer Finance, Survey of Financial Security 1999,2005,2012 varying sample size (9,00-23,000) wealthy areas over-sampled detail on pension and pension wealth (npv) gave more comprehensive picture response rate around % 70 Permanent funding secured in 2015 for a triennial survey, starting with 2016 Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
7 Planned Household Distribution Tables Household distribution tables Work under way to develop annual household wealth distribution tables, linked to NA (NBSA). Part of a larger macro-micro linkage project to estimate distribution of NA income, consumption and saving of household sector addresses Stiglitz, Sen, Fitoussi recommendations Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
8 Planned Household Distribution Tables Estimation of distributional information Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
9 Planned Household Distribution Tables SFS aligns well with NBSA Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
10 Planned Household Distribution Tables Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M) Statistics Canada s microsimulation tool data base combines tax return data, UE claimant histories, survey data on income, consumption 300,000 composite individuals (100,000 households), non-condential, statistically representative data base available as a pubic-use microdata file static accounting model computes taxes and transfers Key idea: SPSD/M database ideal starting point for integrated distributions of macro income, consumption, saving, wealth. Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
11 Planned Household Distribution Tables Strategy Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
12 Preliminary results Illustrative Findings (1) Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
13 Preliminary results Illustrative Findings (2) Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
14 Conclusions Conclusions Stay tuned. (Public release: end of 2017) Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
15 Comments Comments and Questions Canadian record on wealth measurement impressive (especially macro) SFS funding is excellent news micro-macro linkage plans too Net worth share of top quintile looks low (Table 1.1)? How does the SFS do so well (response rate, coverage)? how does it do on the tail? (Vermuelen type analysis?) Scaling micro-data to macro-totals how much? why? (understanding matters) It would be nice to know more about the matching/imputation in the SPSD/M for some things you might do with microdata, it really matters. Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
16 Comments Imputation concerns Crossley on Van Rompaey Wealth in Canada August 22, / 16
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