HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

Transcription

1 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted for Telemundo by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from October 25 through October 30, A total of 625 registered Hispanic voters were interviewed statewide by telephone in Florida. All stated they were likely to vote in the November election. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect Hispanic voter registration by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all Hispanic voters in Florida were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. 1

2 STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? GOVERNOR RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Andrew Gillum 45% 28% 20% 7% Ron DeSantis 38% 32% 21% 9% SENATE Bill Nelson 46% 34% 14% 6% Rick Scott 39% 37% 21% 3% Donald Trump 38% 47% 15% - 2

3 QUESTION: If the 2018 election for Florida s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Bill Nelson, the Democrat, or Rick Scott, the Republican? NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED STATE 54% 39% 7% REGION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 46% 47% 7% Central Florida 71% 23% 6% Tampa Bay 58% 34% 8% SEX NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED Men 48% 45% 7% Women 59% 36% 5% AGE NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED <50 58% 34% 8% % 44% 7% HISPANIC ORIGIN NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED Cuban 29% 65% 6% Puerto Rican 61% 33% 6% Other 72% 20% 8% PARTY REGISTRATION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED Democrat 96% 2% 2% Republican 1% 95% 4% Independent 47% 37% 16% 3

4 QUESTION: If the 2018 election for governor were held today, would you vote for: - Andrew Gillum Democrat - Ron DeSantis Republican - One of the other candidates GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED STATE 51% 40% 2% 7% REGION GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 47% 46% 2% 5% Central Florida 61% 28% 2% 9% Tampa Bay 55% 34% 1% 10% SEX GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED Men 46% 44% 1% 9% Women 53% 37% 3% 7% AGE GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED <50 54% 34% 3% 9% % 45% 1% 6% HISPANIC ORIGIN GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED Cuban 30% 64% 1% 5% Puerto Rican 61% 28% 2% 9% Other 64% 26% 2% 8% PARTY REGISTRATION GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED Democrat 88% 6% 1% 5% Republican 2% 93% 1% 4% Independent 45% 35% 3% 17% 4

5 QUESTION: Which one of the following do you feel is the most important issue facing the country today? (ORDER ROTATED) ALL CUBAN PUERTO RICAN OTHER Healthcare 24% 20% 29% 26% The Economy & Jobs 21% 25% 19% 19% Immigration 15% 14% 16% 16% National Security & Foreign Policy Issues 8% 9% 9% 6% Guns Rights & Gun Control 6% 5% 5% 8% Social issues, such as Abortion & Same Sex Marriage 5% 6% 6% 4% Taxes, Government Spending & the National Debt 4% 6% 2% 4% Russian Collusion & Removing Trump from office 4% 3% 2% 5% Environment/Climate Change 3% 3% 3% 3% Supreme Court Appointments 2% 2% 2% 1% Other (NOT READ) 3% 3% 2% 3% Not Sure (NOT READ) 5% 4% 5% 5% 5

6 QUESTION: In general, do you feel things in the country are on the right track or are they on the wrong track? RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE STATE 44% 46% 10% REGION RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE Southeast Florida 47% 44% 9% Central Florida 37% 50% 13% Tampa Bay 45% 45% 10% SEX RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE Men 54% 38% 8% Women 35% 53% 12% AGE RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE <50 38% 51% 11% % 41% 9% HISPANIC ORIGIN RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE Cuban-American 60% 33% 7% Puerto Rican 27% 56% 17% Other 38% 53% 9% PARTY REGISTRATION RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE Democrat 14% 73% 13% Republican 85% 10% 5% Independent 47% 43% 10% 6

7 QUESTION: Compared to a year ago, would you say you are more confident about the economy, less confident about the economy, or do you feel about the same? MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE STATE 38% 23% 37% 2% REGION MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE Southeast Florida 43% 18% 37% 2% Central Florida 28% 33% 37% 2% Tampa Bay 36% 25% 38% 1% SEX MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE Men 42% 18% 39% 1% Women 35% 27% 35% 3% AGE MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE <50 35% 25% 39% 1% % 21% 35% 3% HISPANIC ORIGIN MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE Cuban 62% 12% 24% 2% Puerto Rican 28% 22% 49% 1% Other 22% 33% 43% 2% PARTY REGISTRATION MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE Democrat 9% 38% 51% 2% Republican 79% 3% 15% 2% Independent 39% 21% 37% 3% 7

8 QUESTION: To date, do you feel you have or have not benefitted from the new law which cuts income tax rates, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act? YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE STATE 30% 53% 17% REGION YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE Southeast Florida 35% 48% 17% Central Florida 24% 58% 18% Tampa Bay 21% 63% 16% SEX YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE Men 35% 49% 16% Women 26% 57% 17% AGE YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE <50 23% 58% 19% % 48% 15% HISPANIC ORIGIN YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE Cuban 53% 31% 16% Puerto Rican 13% 72% 15% Other 18% 63% 19% PARTY REGISTRATION YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE Democrat 7% 76% 17% Republican 66% 18% 16% Independent 27% 56% 17% 8

9 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose having a national health plan, which some call Medicare for All, in which all Americans would get their insurance from a single government plan? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED STATE 78% 15% 7% REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 74% 18% 8% Central Florida 83% 12% 5% Tampa Bay 84% 9% 7% SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Men 74% 20% 6% Women 81% 11% 8% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 82% 13% 5% % 17% 9% HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Cuban 70% 22% 6% Puerto Rican 82% 12% 7% Other 83% 10% 7% PARTY IDENTIFICATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Democrat 85% 8% 7% Republican 65% 26% 9% Independent 79% 15% 6% 9

10 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose the repeal and elimination of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED STATE 49% 43% 8% REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 54% 37% 9% Central Florida 39% 56% 5% Tampa Bay 45% 46% 9% SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Men 55% 39% 6% Women 44% 46% 10% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 45% 46% 9% % 40% 7% HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Cuban 60% 27% 13% Puerto Rican 38% 57% 5% Other 45% 50% 5% PARTY IDENTIFICATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Democrat 34% 62% 4% Republican 67% 17% 16% Independent 50% 43% 7% 10

11 QUESTION: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the Trump administration s handling of U.S. immigration policy? APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STATE 38% 51% 11% REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Southeast Florida 44% 46% 10% Central Florida 24% 62% 14% Tampa Bay 36% 55% 9% SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Men 43% 47% 10% Women 34% 54% 12% AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE <50 36% 53% 11% % 49% 11% HISPANIC ORIGIN APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Cuban 50% 36% 14% Puerto Rican 27% 62% 11% Other 33% 59% 8% PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE Democrat 10% 81% 9% Republican 85% 6% 9% Independent 33% 53% 14% 11

12 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose extending the DACA program, which allows people whose parents came to the U.S. illegally when they were children to remain in the country? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED STATE 88% 7% 5% REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 88% 8% 4% Central Florida 89% 6% 5% Tampa Bay 84% 5% 11% SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Men 87% 9% 4% Women 89% 6% 5% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 91% 5% 4% % 8% 5% HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Cuban 83% 9% 8% Puerto Rican 87% 7% 6% Other 93% 5% 2% PARTY IDENTIFICATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Democrat 97% 3% - Republican 78% 11% 11% Independent 85% 9% 6% 12

13 QUESTION: Do you feel the Trump administration should or should not reverse the end of temporary protected status of immigrants, generally known as TPS? SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE STATE 56% 21% 23% REGION SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Southeast Florida 52% 23% 25% Central Florida 63% 16% 21% Tampa Bay 58% 23% 19% SEX SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Men 50% 23% 27% Women 61% 20% 19% AGE SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE <50 59% 20% 21% % 22% 25% HISPANIC ORIGIN SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Cuban 41% 29% 30% Puerto Rican 62% 17% 21% Other 66% 16% 18% PARTY REGISTRATION SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Democrat 66% 17% 17% Republican 41% 29% 30% Independent 56% 19% 25% 13

14 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that includes a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, including TPS recipients? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED STATE 78% 13% 9% REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 75% 15% 10% Central Florida 82% 10% 8% Tampa Bay 83% 11% 6% SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Men 74% 17% 9% Women 81% 10% 9% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 80% 10% 10% % 15% 9% HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Cuban 65% 20% 15% Puerto Rican 89% 6% 5% Other 84% 10% 6% PARTY IDENTIFICATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Democrat 97% 1% 2% Republican 62% 24% 14% Independent 68% 19% 13% 14

15 QUESTION: Do you feel the Trump administration should or should not deny the Green Card to legal immigrants if they received government assistance, such as Food Stamps, Section 8 housing or Medicaid? SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE STATE 17% 70% 13% REGION SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Southeast Florida 19% 67% 14% Central Florida 11% 80% 9% Tampa Bay 20% 65% 15% SEX SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Men 21% 69% 10% Women 14% 71% 15% AGE SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE <50 13% 75% 12% % 65% 14% HISPANIC ORIGIN SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Cuban 23% 60% 17% Puerto Rican 14% 77% 9% Other 13% 76% 11% PARTY REGISTRATION SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE Democrat 9% 85% 6% Republican 25% 58% 17% Independent 22% 60% 18% 15

16 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose an extension of federal assistance for Puerto Ricans who settled in Florida after Hurricane Maria hit the island? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED STATE 79% 15% 6% REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 77% 18% 5% Central Florida 84% 10% 6% Tampa Bay 81% 11% 8% SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Men 78% 20% 2% Women 80% 11% 9% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 83% 12% 5% % 18% 6% HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Cuban 74% 23% 3% Puerto Rican 83% 11% 6% Other 81% 10% 9% PARTY IDENTIFICATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Democrat 87% 8% 5% Republican 71% 26% 3% Independent 76% 15% 9% 16

17 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose making Puerto Rico the 51st state? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED STATE 74% 14% 12% REGION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Southeast Florida 70% 17% 13% Central Florida 83% 9% 8% Tampa Bay 73% 11% 16% SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Men 72% 17% 11% Women 75% 12% 13% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 74% 14% 12% % 14% 12% HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Cuban 64% 20% 16% Puerto Rican 83% 6% 11% Other 78% 13% 9% PARTY IDENTIFICATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED Democrat 81% 6% 13% Republican 67% 22% 11% Independent 71% 18% 11% 17

18 DEMOGRAPHICS PARTY REGISTRATION: Democrat 263 (42%) Republican 183 (29%) Independent or Other 179 (29%) AGE: (21%) (27%) (28%) (23%) Refused 5 (1%) HISPANIC ORIGIN: Cuban 229 (37%) Puerto Rican 128 (20%) Other 268 (43%) SEX: Male 290 (46%) Female 335 (54%) REGION: North Florida 30 (5%) Central Florida 140 (22%) Tampa Bay 80 (13%) Southwest Florida 30 (5%) Southeast Florida 345 (55%) 18