Economic Indicators AUGUST (Includes data available as of September 4, 2009)

Transcription

1 th Congress, st Session Economic Indicators AUGUST (Includes data available as of ember 4, ) Prepared for the Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisers UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON :

2 JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE (Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.) CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York, Chair CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York, Vice Chairman HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York BARON P. HILL, Indiana LORETTA SANCHEZ, California ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryl VIC SNYDER, Arkansas KEVIN BRADY, Texas RON PAUL, Texas MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D., Texas JOHN CAMPBELL, California SENATE EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., Pennsylvania JIM WEBB, Virginia SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas JIM DEMINT, South Carolina JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah NAN GIBSON, Executive Director CHRISTINA D. ROMER, Chair AUSTAN D. GOOLSBEE, Member CECILIA E. ROUSE, Member [PUBLIC LAW 0 8ST CONGRESS; CHAPTER 37 ST SESSION] JOINT RESOLUTION [S.J. Res. 55] To print the monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators Resolved by the Senate House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That the Joint Economic Committee be authorized to issue a monthly publication entitled Economic Indicators, that a sufficient quantity be printed to furnish one copy to each Member of Congress; the Secretary the Sergeant at Arms of the Senate; the Clerk, Sergeant at Arms, Doorkeeper of the House of Representatives; two copies to the libraries of the Senate House, the Congressional Library; seven hundred copies to the Joint Economic Committee; the required numbers of copies to the Superintendent of Documents for distribution to depository libraries; that the Superintendent of Documents be authorized to have copies printed for sale to the public. Approved June 3, 949. Charts prepared under the direction of the Printing Procurement Branch, Office of the Secretary, Department of Commerce. Economic Indicators, published monthly, is available at $50 a single copy ($70 foreign), or by subscription at $580 per year ($8.0 for foreign mailing) from: SUPERINTENDENT OF DOCUMENTS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON, D.C. 040 For sale by the U.S. Government Printing Office Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC Also available on the internet at the following address:

3 TOTAL OUTPUT, INCOME, AND SPENDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT In the second quarter of, according to revised estimates, currentdollar gross domestic product (GDP) fell percent (annual rate), real GDP (GDP in chained dollars) fell percent, the chained price index was unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 5,00 4,800 4,400 4,000 3,600 3,00,800,400,000,600,00 0,800 0,400 0,000 9,600 9,00 y ' / y BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AN JUAL RATES 5,00 4,800 GDP IN CURRENT DOLLARS y y y P^INCHA NED () DOLLARS y 4,400 4,000 3,600 3,00,800,400,000,600,00 0,800 0,400 0,000 9,600 9,00 8,800 i i i i i i i i j i I I i i i I 8,800 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billion of current dollars; quarterly d ata at seasonally adjusted annual rates]...9,...9,...,...,...,...,...,...,...4,...4, : I...,..., I...., rv : I...,..., I....4, IV...4, : I...4,...4, I....4, rv : I...4, r Gross domestic product ,95.5 0,86. 0,64,4.,867, , ,077 4,44.4 3,8 3,347 3,45 3,6.5 3,795 3,997. 4,79.9 4, , ,497 4, ,347 4,78 4,43 Personal consumption expenditures 6,34 6, ,48 7,439. 7,80 8,85. 8,89 9,3 9,86.4 0,9.9 9,48. 9,66 9,39 9,484. 9, ,76.5 9,865 0,09. 0,095. 0,94.7 0,0. 0,009 9, ,996,64.5,77,66.9,647,79.7,968,7,3,88.5,36.,336.5,35.,33,86.5,67.,30,3.9 7,4,64,4,0.,689.9,558 Exports imports of services Net exports Exports 989,09,07.7,00,0,80.,305.,47,655.9,83.,4,456,476,538.,564.9,60.,685.,77,803,90.5,93.,706.,509,49 Imports,5.4,475,398.7,430.,545.,798.9,07,40,369.7,538.9,89,37.4,8.7,5.5,94,36.9,383,47,548.,640.,670.5,96.7,887.9,830,63,7,846.4,983,,3,369.9,58.4,676.5,88,474.5,50.5,533,555.,94,657.4,700.9,748,808.4,877.,94.4,905.9,879,96 Government consumption expenditures gross investment , , ,004,808.4,03,069.5,08,4,06.7,37 Federal National defense Gross private domestic investment Nondefense State local,076,54.9,34.7,30,646,408.,493,586.7,699,800 3,7.5 4,9.,8.7,69.4,65,689,709.5, ,8, ,833.,47,77,789 GDP less exports of services plus imports of services. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Final sales of domestic product 9,9 9, ,34.5 0,63,5 7,80.,798, ,339 4,058 4,476. 3,7.5 3,75.4 3,38 3,579. 3,78.5 3,97 4,48 4,38 4,38.,807 4,58 4,39 4,305 4,3 Gross domestic purchases 9,65 0,33 0,657.,069.5,646,486.4,493 4,68. 4,79.4 5,49. 3,959 4,9. 4,58 4,35 4,55 4,7 4,878 5,040,038 5,36.4 5,30 4,39 4, ,48.9 Addendum: Gross national product 9,38 9, ,69.4,0,959,5 3,47 4,93 4,583 3, ,54 3,68 3, ,073 4,878 4,5 4,544.9,807 4, ,454 4,77.9,789

4 .. : I. I rv : I. I rv : I. I rv : I. Gross domestic product 0,779,6,347.,55,840.7,63,638.4,976. 3,54. 3,3,95.9,96.5, , , ,0 3,3. 3,39. 3, ,45 3,34 3,4.9,95.4,89.5 7,40.9 7,608. 7,83.9 8,0 8,47 8,53 8,89 9,07 9,33.9 9,90.9 8,986 9,035 9, ,8 9,65. 9,9.5 9,335 9,363 9,349 9,35 9,67.7 9,95 9,09. 9,86.7 REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Billions of chained () dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Gross private domestic investment,00.9,38.5,8,80.,9,6,347,453.9,544,569.7,44.9,450,466,474.5,489,530,565,59,598.9,604.4,579.,496.,3,83 Personal consumption expenditures Nonresidential fixed investment Residential fixed investment Exports imports of services Net exports GDP less exports of services plus imports of services. NOTE. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained () dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chaineddollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates.,094,88,,099.,6,,305.,4,546.,69,388,4.,44.,47,485.9,504,569.9,6,6,670.4,655.,568,434.5,46.4,450.9,639.9,593,648,70.7,90,07,5.,93,,,44.9,70.5,68.,90,88.,08,88,74,46.5,34.4,038.9,8,748 Government consumption expenditures gross investment,056.,097,78,79,330.5,36,369.9,,443.,58.,397.,399.,40,409.4,409.5,435.4,458.9,468.7,484.7,506.9,536,54,57., , ,0.5 Federal Change in private inventories Exports Imports National defense Nondefense , State local,36,68.4,45,500,499.7,98.,493,507.,536.7,54,496,506,50,55,56.5,536.5,540 30,54.9,546,547,007,53,546.9 Final sales of domestic product 0,75.7,67.5,39.7,54,84,90,36,588.4,507. 3,34 3,3,85,89, , ,79,5403 3,38. 3,36 3,45,5473 3,9 3,055 3,067.7 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. CHAINED PRICE INDEXES FOR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT [Index numbers, = 00; quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Gross domestic purchases,4.,68.4,85.7,07.7,499.7,8,95,493 3, ,90 3,80. 3, , ,7 3,07 3,805 3,887 3, ,95 3,96.4 3, ,798 3,60 3, Addendum: Gross national product 0,8.,67.5,68,404,606.9,8,98.,95,5 3,046. 3,36 3,44,496 3, ,05. 3,9.5 3,60.5 3,75.9 3,45.5 3,563 3,55.4 3,53 3,7 3,40.5 3,303., : I... Ill rv : I...5. Ill rv : I...7. Ill rv : I...9. IP Gross domestic product Personal consumption expenditures Goods Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Services Gross private domestic investment Nonresidential fixed Residential fixed Exports imports of services Exports Imports Government consumption expenditures gross investment Federal National defense Nondefense State local

5 : I I...0. IV I... I IV... : I... I...5. IV I...6. I IV... : I... GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND RELATED PRICE MEASURES: INDEXES AND PERCENT CHANGES Index numbers, = 00 Gross domestic product (GDP) Real GDP (chaintype quantity index) GDP chaintype price index GDP implicit price deflator [Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted] Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) PCE (chaintype price index) PCE less food energy price index GDP (current dollars) Percent change from preceding period Gross domestic product (GDP) Real GDP (chaintype quantity index) GDP chaintype price index GDP implicit price deflator Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) PCE (chaintype price index) NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS GROSS VALUE ADDED AND PRICE, COSTS, AND PROFITS...4,...5,...5,...,..., : I...,..., I IV..., I I..., IV : I...,..., I IV..., : I r UP Gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (billions of dollars) Current dollars 4, ,79.4 5,5.5 5, ,50 5, ,30 6,740 6,970. 6,97.5 6,69.5 6,668. 6,8 6,85 6,909 6,988 6, ,03 6, , ,04 6,934. 6,703 6,6 Chained () dollars 5,4.5 5, ,604 5,69 5, , ,30 6, , , ,505. 6,480 6,567. 6,593 6, ,649 6,64.9 6,75.5 6,664 6,735 6,7 6,579 6,78 6,37. [Quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Estimates for nonfinancial corporate business for earlier periods are based on the Stard Industrial Classification (SIC); later estimates are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The implicit price deflator for gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business divided by 00. Price per unit of real gross value added of nonfinancial corporate business (dollars) Compensation of employees (unit labor cost) Unit nonlabor cost Consumption of fixed capital Taxes on production imports Net interest miscellaneous payments PCE less food energy price index Corporate profits with inventory valuation capital consumption adjustments s Less subsidies plus business current transfer payments. 4 Unit profits from current production. 5 With inventory valuation capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Taxes on corporate income Profits after tax

6 NATIONAL INCOME [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] National income Compensation of employees Farm Proprietors' income Nonfarm Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment Corporate profits with inventory valuation capital consumption adjustments Profits with inventory valuation adjustment without capital consumption adjustment Profits before tax Inventory valuation adjustment Capital consumption adjustment Net interest miscellaneous payments Taxes on production imports Less: Subsidies Business current transfer payments Current surplus of government enterprises...,...,...9,...9, 8,358 8, ,85. 9, ,840. 0,53,73,0,448.,635. 5, ,788 5,979 6,0 6,38 6,69 7,065 7,477 7, , ,05.9,03,056.9, ,46.9,456.,608,54.7, ,95.,05,784.7,056.94, ,9.4,640.,8,774, ,08.7, : I... Ill... rv... : I... Ill... IV... : I... Ill... IV... : I' IP...,838.,965.9,09,7.9,53.9,4.,48,635.4,66.5,664.4,78,433.9,08.9,6.9 7,35 7,49.9 7,484. 7,650 7,757. 7,89.7 7,869 7,979 8,07.5 8,03 8,069. 8,030 7,85 7, , ,098.5,04,0,08.4,057.5,060,055.7,05,057.9,06.5,065.,044.5, ,590.9,597,655.,589,535.4,594.9,537. 7,9794,459.7,40,454,3,8,50,78.9,77.4,0,76,535.4,594.9,73,05,057.9,463,99,37,379. 6,89,655.,589,7,747,808,758.,783.,60,59,576,060.,46.5, ,000.7,05,05.,03,04,04.5,050,058.5,037,08, With inventory valuation capital consumption adjustments. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES [Billions of chained () dollars, except as noted; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] personal consumption expenditures durable Durable Motor vehicles parts Goods nondurable Nondurable Gasoline other energy services Services Housing utilities Health care Food beverages purchased for offpremises consumption Household consumption expenditures Financial services insurance Addendum: Personal consumption expenditures excluding food energy Retail sales of new passenger cars light trucks (millions of units) : I Ill IV : I Ill rv : I Ill rv : I r 7,40.9 7,608. 7,83.9 8,0 8,47 8,53 8,89 9,07 9,33.9 9,90.9 8,986 9,035 9, ,8 9,65. 9,9.5 9,335 9,363 9,349 9,35 9,67.7 9,95 9,09. 9,86.7,395,5,600.9,706,89.9,955 3, ,73.9 3,7 3,06 3,45.7 3,50 3,76.4 3,.5 3,53.9 3,55.4 3,80 3,304 3,6. 3,57 3,93 3,0.4 3,9 3, ,05,05.5,50.4,99.9,46,4,39.4,5.,67.9,8,89.9,05,,9,75.7,39,076,087., ,660.9,74.7,745,780.,845,904,968.4,03,074,057,00,0,04.5,054.7,070,066.,076,086,070.,08.4,05.5,06.,035.5, Includes other items, not shown separately. Food consists of food beverages purchased for offpremises consumption; food services, which include purchased meals beverages, are not classified as food. NOTE. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained () dollar , ,3, ,85 5,093 5,8.7 5,38. 5,48.4 5,577 5,745. 5, ,040 6,083. 5, ,94 5, ,0.7 6,036. 6, , ,087. 6,09.5 6,07 6, ,076 6, , ,97 5,8 5,09 5,99 5,359 5,5 5,664 5,796. 5,87 5,68. 5,65. 5,67.4 5, , ,055.55,8 5,804 5, ,805. 5,806 5,87. 5,8, ,4 5,8.75,46,480.,5,58,66.7, ,598.9,67,67 3,.5,69,630.,634 6.,643,647,64,656,656.9, ,6,08.5,35.4,0 5,99,4,6,36,340,63,375,64,598.9, ,335,347.7,365.,630.,37,377,387, ,0.,4,434, ,0.5,08.56, ,94.9 7,4 7,40 5,5,58 5, ,6 8,3 7,837 7,868 5,94 8,00 8, ,036.5,7 8, ,77. 8, , ,0765, estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chaineddollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

7 SOURCES OF PERSONAL INCOME Personal income rose $3 billion (annual rate) in July following a decrease of $3 billion in June. Wages salaries rose $8.9 billion in July following a decrease of $. billion in June. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,000,000,000 0,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 ' " >" i v T TOTAL PERSON _, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 3,000 ',000,000 0,000 9,000 ' 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4D SALARY DISBU 5,000 4,000 OTHER INCOME 4,000 3,000 3,000,000 FERSONALCURRE NT RANSFER RECEI TS. / _. ^,000,400,400 _.. " "" 800 I f t i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i i I i i t i i I I I I! I M I I I! I I I! I I I I I I I < I I I I I I Mill Mil! SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]...,...9,...9, : July Aug Oet Nov Dee : Jan r Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June r Julyp personal income 7,90 8, ,883 9,060. 9,378. 9,937. 0,485.9,68.,894.,38,54,98.4,306,68.,35,96,038,937.,88,99,087,953,957.4 Compensation of employees, received ,788 5,979 6,0 6,367 6, ,060 7, ,86 8,04 8,057 8,08 8,067 8,07 8,058. 8,0 7,86 7, ,756 7,737. 7,7 7,70.7 7,7 4,460 4,87.7 4,95 4,997 5,39 5,45.7 5, , , ,557 6,580 6,565. 6,566 6,550. 6,5 6,36 6,30 6,60 6,4.4 6,34.5 6, 6, With inventory valuation capital consumption adjustments. With capital consumption adjustment. s Consists mainly of social insurance benefits to persons. Wage salary disbursements Supplements to wages salaries ,07.,,8,8,359. 6,068.9,453,496,499.,50,50,505,507.9,507.,500.9,497.4,495.7,495,496.9,497.,499 Proprietors' income Farm , Nonfarm , ,056.9,05,068,065.,06.,056,043,03,09.,00., ,000.7,008.5 Rental income of persons , Personal income receipts on assets,46, ,309,3,408.5,54,89.7,0,994.4, ,5,006.5,975,956.5,0338,89,845,797.,794,79.5,788,008.5 Personal interest income ,7.5,056.94,308,38.,38.,337,308, ,6,4,5,34,4,5,49.5 Personal dividend income ,7 5. Personal current transfer receipts 3,46,08,88.,8.,34.7,45.5,508,605,78,875.9, ,87,890.,05634,043, ,979.7,06.,068.4,36.,3.9,0 Less: Contributions for government social insurance, domestic Note. For information on the effects of the American Recovery Reinvestment Act of on personal income data, see Personal Income Outlays: July, release dated August 8,. Note. Revisions include changes to series affected by revised wage salary estimates for :I. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

8 DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME According to revised estimates, per capita disposable personal income in chained () dollars rose at an annual rate of percent in the second quarter of. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE] BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE),500 9,500 DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 38,000 PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 36,000 34,000 CHAINED () DOLLARS 3,000 30,000 _. ' CURRENT DOLLARS 8,000. 6,000 ^ 4,000 DOLLARS' (RATIO SCALE) 38,000 36,000 34,000 3,000 30,000 8,000 6,000 4,000,000! ' [! i i S!! I l i l l l,000 Personal income Less: Personal current taxes Equals: Disposable personal income Less: Personal outlays Equals: Personal saving Disposable personal income in billions of chained () dollars Per capita disposable personal income Current dollars Chained () dollars Per capita personal consumption expenditures Current dollars Chained () dollars Percent change in real per capita disposable personal income Saving as percent of disposable personal income Population, including Armed Forces overseas (thouss) Billions of dollars Dollars Percent 7,90 8, ,883 9,060. 9,378. 9,937. 0,485.9,68.,894.,38,07.5,3,34,050.4,000,047,08,35,490.9,43 6,803 7,37. 7, , ,377 8, ,77 9,95.7 0,403. 0, , ,4. 7,44 7,77.5 8,088 8, ,49 9, ,4 0, , , ,6.5 8,360. 8,637. 8, ,55. 9,77 9, ,860 9,9 4,356 5,945 6,809 7,806 8, ,338 30, ,478 35,486 7,805 8,899 9^303 9,984 30,454 3,09 3,338 30,36 3,679 3,546,707 4,86 5,058 5,86 6,843 93,3 96,0 3,98 3,566 33,64 5,93 6,940 7,389 7,849 8,369 9,087 96,0 30,364 30,868 30, ,4 3, ,38 8,43 85,94 88,055 90,79 9,08 96,036 98,80 30, ,59 Seasonally adjusted annual rates : I Ill... IV... : I Ill... IV... : I Ill... IV... :!< r...,06.7,0,336.9,504,706.9,8,945,00,4,9,86,3,95,986,3.5,340.,354,39,459.5,48,500.7,5,53,36.,437,434,87, ,705. 9,863 9,98.5 0,. 0,47.4 0,34.7 0,445 0, ,60.4 0, ,849 0,799. 0, ,90 9,49 9,68. 9, , ,038 0,58. 0,75 0,45 0,484. 0,59 0,63 0, ,36 0, ,533 9,67 9,66.5 9,788 9,830. 9,84 9, ,886. 8,86.9 0,059 9,838 9,90.4 9,96.4 0,09 3,596 33,056 33,367 33,708 34,085 34,30 34,574 34,98 34,960 0,59 35, ,633 35,59 30,7530 3, ,75 3,673 3,697 3,664 3,76 3,64 3,379 33,075 3,70 305,60 3,633 3,65 30,75 3,054 39,98 3,67 300,6 3,398 3,656 33,08 33,6 33,5 33,5 3,75 3,63 3,576 30,8 30,78 30,386 30,609 30,88 30,835 30,90 30,97 30,806 30,747 30,399 30,087 30,07 9,937 6,8.4, , ^8 5 97,743 98,399 99,75 99, ,644 30,33 30,08 30, ,498 30, ,87 305,60 306,45 306,87 Includes personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments (nonmortgage), personal current transfer payments. Annual data are averages of quarterly data, which are averages for the period. Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of the Census).

9 FARM INCOME According to the revised forecast for, gross farm income is forecast at $334 billion, net farm income at $5 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE] GROSS FARM INCOME BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) NET FARM INCOME A ~~ / / i / "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Income of farm operators from farming Gross farm income Cash marketing receipts Livestock products Crops Value of inventory changes 3 Direct Government payments 4 Production expenses Net farm income r r r : I I IV...5. :!< r Ir IVr : I r r Ir IVr r r Cash marketing receipts, Government payments, value of changes in inventories, other farm related cash income, nonmoney income produced by farms including imputed rent of operator residences. Crop receipts include proceeds received from commodities placed under Commodity Credit Corporation loans. s Physical changes in beginning ending year inventories of crop livestock commodities valued at weighted average market prices during the period. 4 Includes only Government payments made directly to farmers. NOTE. Data for are forecasts. Source: Department of Agriculture.

10 CORPORATE PROFITS In the second quarter of, according to preliminary estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $4.4 billion (annual rate) profits after tax rose $7 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS,000,900,800,700,600,500,400,300,00,00, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES PROFITS BEFORE TAX / 4.A / PROFITS AFTER TAX ' _ " / A i ' / t J r y / JDISTRIBUTEC J ) PROFITS V. FAXES ON ropp tpate IN^^^P I I / M / W I V V i i i i i i i BILLIONS OF DOLLARS,000,900,800 / I l l ",700,600,500,400,300,00,00, SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COUNCILOFECONOMICADViSERS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Profits (before tax) with inventory valuation adjustment 3 Domestic industries Nonfinancial Retail Profits before tax Taxes Financial Manufacturing Utilities Wholesale corporate income Profits after tax Net dividends Undistributed profits Inventory valuation adjustment : : : I... I IV I. I IV I... I. rv. I. p ,95.,609.5,784.7,730.4,44.5,78.9,77.4,8,76,705.4,779.,73,704.,5,463,5,99,37, ,370,57,38,047,535,56.,57,488,4,467.9,36,77,00,096, ,0.9, ,079.9, ,068.5,048,37,065,039, See p. 4 for profits with inventory valuation capital consumption adjustments. Includes rest of the world, not shown separately. s Includes industries not shown separately , ,640.,8,774.4,46,85,89,865.,790.7,747,808,758.,783.,60,59, ,46.5, ,349.5,3,70,354,344.7,865,330,78., ,35,97,76, , r Note: Data by industry beginning 998 are based on the 997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

11 REAL GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT In the second quarter of, according to revised estimates, nonresidential fixed investment in chained () dollars fell $37 billion (annual rate) residential investment fell $3. billion. There was a decrease of $59. billion in inventories following a decrease of $3.9 billion in the first quarter. BILLIONS OF CHAINED () DOLLARS,400,00,000,800,600,400,00, J SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES ^ GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC S INVESTMENT y V NONRESIDEN TIAI IXED INVEST YtENT RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT CHANGE IN PRIVATE INVENTORIES " '" r v ^_. ^'^ ^ BILLIONS OF CHAINED () DOLLARS,400,00,000,800,600,400,00, ! i i i I I " 00 SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of chained () dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates]..... : I...,..., I. IV..., : I...,. I...., IV. : I...., I. IV..., : I..., n> Gross private domestic investment,844,970,83.9,807,87,058.,7,30.4,46.,989.4,64.7,6.,9,66,3,6,66.5,,08,06.5,990.7,857.7,558.5,45,78.,93,877,798.,856.,99.5,,7,6,08.4,00.,89.9,6,3,8,37.7,35,,079.,064,00.4,909,687.5,67.5 NOTE. See p. 0 for further detail on fixed investment by type. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained () dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chaineddollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates.,00.9,38.5,8,80.,9,6,347,453.9,544,569.7,44.9,450,466,474.5,489,530,565,59,598.9,604.4,579.,496.,3,83 Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment software ,069,097,068,060.7,066,07,079,078.,095.,0,59,.9,097.7, Residential Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Change in private inventories Nonfarm

12 REAL PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT BY TYPE [Billions of chained () dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Nonresidential Equipment software Residential Structures fixed investment Information processing equipment software nonresidential Structures Computers peripheral equipment Other Software Industrial equipment Transportation equipment Other equipment Single family residential Equipment : I I IV : I I IV I I IV : I IP,78.,93,877,798.,856.,99.5,,7,6,08.4,00.,89.9,6,3,8,37.7,35,,079.,064,00.4,909,687.5,67.5,00.9,38.5,8,80.,9,6,347,453.9,544,569.7,44.9,450,466,474.5,489,530,565,59,598.9,604.4,579.,496.,3, ,069,097,068,060.7,066,07,079,078.,095.,0,3,.9,097.7, For details on this component, see Survey of Current Business, Tables 5, 5. for growth rates, 5. for contributions, 5 for quantity indexes. Includes other items, not shown separately , NOTE. Because of the formula used for calculating real GDP, the chained () dollar estimates for the detailed components do not add to the chaineddollar value of GDP or to any intermediate aggregates. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis BUSINESS INVESTMENT [Billions of dollars] Capital expenditures By industry capital expenditures by industry Forestry, fishing agricultural services Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation warehousing Information Finance insurance Real tate rental leasing Professional, scientific, technical services Health care social assistance Other For companies without em ploy For companies with employees , ,..., ,047,6, ,04.,44,309.9, ,089.9, ,06.5,7., , Includes the following industries: Management of companies enterprises; administrative support waste management; educational services; arts, entertainment, recreation; accommodation food services; other services (except public administration). Also includes an item for structure equipment expenditures serving multiple industry categories. NOTE. Data from Annual Capital Expenditures. Industry data are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Data shown in this table are capital expenditures for both new used structures equipment. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 0

13 EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE In August, employment fell by 39,000 unemployment rose by 466,000. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 58 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MILLIONS OF PERSONS CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT 4 38 "V... f ' 6 UNEMPLOYMENT 8 4 LLLLLLLLLLL I I I I I I I I I I I I [ n I I I I I I I I I [ I I I I I 6 YEARS OF AGE AND OVER SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Thouss of persons 6 years of age ove r, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted except as noted by NSA] Civilian employment Unemployment Percent Civilian noninstitutional population (NSA) Civilian labor force Men 0 years over Women 0 years over Both S6XSS 69 years Men 0 years over Women 0 years over Both SSXSS 69 years Not in labor force Labor force participation rate Employment/ population ratio Unemployment rate...7, : Aug Oet Nov Dee : Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 07,753,577 5,09 7,570,68 3,357 6,08 8,85 3,867 33, ,737 34,360 34,6 34,88 35,035 34,739 34,93 35,086 35,7 35,45 35,655 35,870 36,087 39,368 4,583 43,734 44,863 46,50 47,40 49,30 5,48 53,4 54,87 54,83 54,6 54,878 54,60 54,447 53,76 54,4 54,048 54,73 55,08 54,96 54,504 54,577 33,488 36,89 36,933 36,485 37,736 39,5 4,730 44,47 46,047 45,36 45,73 45,09 44,657 44,44 43,338 4,099 4,748 40,887 4,007 40,570 40,96 40,04 39,649 67,76 69,634 69,776 69,734 70,45 7,57 73,050 74,43 75,337 74,750 45,737 74,503 74,9 74,045 73,85 7,63 7,93 7,655 7,678 7,593 7,387 7,39 7,04 58,55 60,067 60,47 60,40 6,40 6,773 6,70 63,834 64,799 65,039 65,003 65,008 64,975 64,90 64,860 6, , ,8 64,6 63,895 63,80 63,789 63,66,6 6,89 6,740 6^33 5,99 5,907 5,978 6,6 5,9 4,973 5,533 5,58 5,390 5,96 5,94 5,88 5,84 5,083 7,403 5,08 4,999 4,933 4,783 5,880 5, ^378 8,774 8,49 7,59 7,00 7,078 8,94 9,550 9,59 0,,0456,08 7,636,47 3,6 3,74 80,37 4,79 4,46,6408,433,376 3,040 3^896 4,09 3,79 3,39, 3,59 4,97 4,57 4,889 5,088 5,90 5,74 5,97 6,394 6,93 7,403 7,80 7,904 7,76 8,07,85,35,599 3,8 3,34 3,50 3,03,75,78 3,34 3,66,367 3,75 3,85 4,03 4,86 4,646 4,88 4,9 5,7 5,49 5,96 5,6,6,08,6,53,5,08,86,9,0,85,36,36,408,335,363,359,47,40,398,49,576,54,640 68,385 69,994 7,359 7,707 74,658 75,956 76,76 77,387 78,743 79,50 79,84 79,739 79,734 80,08 80,588 8,03 80,699 8,038 80,54 80,37 80,79 8,366 8, Civilian labor force (or employment) as percent of civilian noninstitutional population; unemployment as percent of civilian labor force. Not strictly comparable with earlier data. NOTE. Beginning January data reflect revised population controls are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See Employment Earnings for details on breaks in series. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

14 SELECTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES In August, the unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent in July. PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 30 PERCENT (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 'SEE FOOTNOTE TABLE BELOW, HSPAN!C OR LATINO ETHNICITY. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] By sex age Unemployment rate (percent of civilian labor force in group) By race or ethnicity By selected groups All civilian workers Men 0 years over Women 0 years over Both sexes 69 years White Asian (NSA) Black or African American Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Married men, spouse present Women who maintain families (NSA) Fulltime workers Parttime workers : Aug Oct.... Nov... Dec : Jan...7. Feb.... Mar... Apr... May...9. June...9. July...9. Aug Beginning in, persons who selected this race group only. Prior to, persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race. Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. NOTE. Data relate to persons age 6 years over. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15 SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS In August, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks, for 56 weeks, for 7 weeks over fell; the percentage for 54 weeks rose. The mean duration of unemployment fell to 4.9 weeks the median duration fell to 5.4 weeks. PERCENT DISTRIBUTION 70 PERCENT DISTRIBUTION 70 REASON FOR UNEMPLOYMENT J r REENTRANT 30 0 JOB LEAVE, J RS NEW ENTRANTS mi iln in Illlll niiiliiin lllllllllll "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED BEGINNING JANUARY 994, JOB LOSERS AND PERSONS WHO COMPLETED TEMPORARY JOBS. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [Monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Less than 5 weeks Duration of unemployment Percent distribution 54 weeks 56 weeks 7 weeks over Number of weeks Unemployment (thouss) Average (mean) Median Job losers Reason for unemployment: percent distribution Job leavers Reentrants New entrants State programs Insured unemployment Initial claims Insured unemployment, all regular programs (unadjusted) Weekly average, thouss...5,...,...,...7,...7, : Aug...9,...9, Oct...., Nov..., Dec...., : Jan..., Feb..., Mar..., Apr..., May...4, June...4, July...4, Aug...4, 5,880 5,69 6,80 8,378 8,774 8,49 7,59 7,00 7,078 8,94 9,550 9,59 0, 0,476,08,66,467 3,6 3,74 4,5 4,79 4,46 4, , , , , , ,88,0,974 3,585 3,53,950,66,476,57 3,306 3,460 3,60 3,8 4,5 4,430 4,670 5,085 5,686 6,97 6,747 6,73 6, r 558 p57,9,4 3,007 3,69 3,569,995,706,58,60 3,343 3,79 3,64,980 3,89 4,778 5,375 6,098 6,95 r 6,076 r 6,33 6,53 5,647 Beginning January 994, job losers persons who completed temporary jobs. Includes State (50 States, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Virgin Isls), exservicemen (UCX), Federal (UCFE). Also includes Federal State extended benefit programs. Does not include Railroad (RR) program, Federal supplemental compensation or Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs. NOTE. Data relate to persons age 6 years over (except for insured unemployment initial claims). Source: Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Training Administration). 3

16 NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT nonagricultural employment as measured by the payroll survey fell by 6,000 in August. MILLIONS OF PERSONS 40 r. 30 LNONAGRIC ESTABLISHMENTS 0. 0 ERVICEPROVI INDUSTRIES l "> MILLIONS OF PERSONS (ENLARGED SCALE) '' 0 SERVICEPROVIDING GOVERNMENT LESS RETAIL TRADE AND GOVERNMENT MANUFACTURING i S i j I i s i i i i i j i i 0 0 (j j () GOODSPRODUCING INDU >TRIES il!! niihini _ " M CONSTRUCTION 'SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR...8,...,...0,...,...6, : Aug Oet Nov Dee : Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July r Augp 8,993 3,785 3,86 30,34 9,999 3,435 33,703 36,086 37,598 37,066 37,053 36,73 36,35 35,755 35,074 34,333 33,65 33,000 3,48 3,78 3,75 3,439 3,3 Goodsproducing industries 4,465 4,649,03,557,86,88,90,53,33,49,35,47,063 0,84 0,53 0,7 9,83 9,50 9,53 9,04 8,89 8,707 8,57 6,545 6,787 6,86 6, ,976 7,336 7,69 7,630 7,5 7,7 7,3 7,066 6,939 6,84 6,706 6,593 6,470 6,367 6,30 6,3 6,58 6,093 [Thouss of wage salary workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] nonagricultural employment Construction Manufacturing 7,3 7,63, 5,59 4,50, ,6 4,55 3,879 3,43 3,387 36,73,063 3,08,90,540,468,96,46,0,877,834,77 04,58 07,36 07,95 07,784 08,83 09,553,53 3,556 5,366 5,646 5,70 5,485 5,89 4,94 4,54 4,06 3,80 3,480 3,8 3,37,886,73,65 Trade, transportation, utilities 3 Retail trade 5,77,865 5,983, 7, 7 5,53 65,39 7,86 8,30,5 6,354 6,57 6,57 6,005 5,843 5,735 5,605 5, ,367 5,308 5,58 5,73 5,45 Data from the establishment survey. Includes all full parttime wage salary workers in nonagricultural establishments who received pay for any part of the pay period that includes the th of the month. Excludes proprietors, selfemployed persons, unpaid family workers, private household workers. Data from the household survey shown on p. include those workers also count persons as employed when they are not at work because of industrial disputes, bad weather, etc., even if they are not paid for the time off. In the series shown here, persons who work at more than one job are counted each time they appear on a payroll, in contrast to the series shown on p. where persons are counted only once as employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force. See Employment Earnings for details. 4,970 5,80 5,39 5,05 4,97 5,058 5,80 5,353 5,50 5,6 5,335 5, ,6 5,038 4,99 4,934 4,87 4,840 4,8 4,79 4,748 4,739 3,49 7,630 3,69,9865 6,588 3, ,438 3,03,997,990,986,98 6,005,940,94 7,898,905,884,858,845,83,8 Serviceproviding industries Information Finan 7, ,497 7,977 5,533 8,53 8,38 7,630 8,46 8,4 8,5 8,088,543 9,080 7,954 7,898 7,857 7,8 7,784 7,75 7,734 7,706 activi ties Professional business services 5, ,764 3,766 5,987 6,394 6,954 7,86 7,94 7,778 7,77 7,675 3, 7,488 7,356,5 7,09 3,480 9,753 6,756 6,655 6,6 6,600 Education health services 4,798 5,09 65,5,9,58,730,73 7,86 8 8,855 8,950 8,957 8,98 9,044 9,080 7,059 9,38 9,58 9,75 9,5 9,48 9,69 7,8 Leisure hospitality,543,86 8,764 3,766 66,73,730,86 3,0 3,47 3,459 3,454 3,48 3,395 3,344 3,304 3,68 9,836 3,0 3,68 3,95 3,76 3,77 65,46 Other services 0,307 5,68 5,58 5, ,409 5,395 5,438 5,494 5,58 5,530 5,53 5,535 5,509 5,477 5,46 5,449 5,46 5,40 5,46 5,40 5,4 5,46 Government 0,307 0,790,8,53,583,6,804,974,8,500,556,535,539 3,783,53,540,547,543 6,876,605,533,505,487 Federal,769,865,764,766,76,730,73,73,734,764,768,77,775,783,778,793,796,808,876,860,87,86,8 Includes natural resources mining, not shown separately. s Includes wholesale trade, transportation warehousing, utilities, not shown separately. NOTE. Data classified by industry based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). For details see Employment Earnings. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4

17 AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS, HOURLY EARNINGS, AND WEEKLY EARNINGS PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL INDUSTRIES [For production or nonsupervisory workers; monthly data seasonally adjusted] : July Aug Oet Nov Dee : Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r... July r Augp private nonagricultural Average weekly hours Manufacturing Overtime Average gross hourly earnings private nonagricultural Current dollars $ dollars $ Manufacturing $ Also includes other private industry groups shown on p. 4. Current dollar earnings divided by the consumer price index for urban wage earners clerical workers (CPIW) (on a 98 = 00 base). private nonagricultural Current dollars $ dollars $ Average gross weekly earnings $ Current dollars Manufacturing Construction $ Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retail trade $ Percent change from a year earlier, total private nonagricultural Current dollars dollars EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX PRIVATE INDUSTRY Index (December = 00) Percent change from compensation Wages salaries Benefits compensation 3 months earlier Wages salaries Benefits compensation months earlier Wages salaries Benefits Not seasonally adjusted : D ec : Dec.... : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec Seasonally adjusted Not seasonally adjusted : Mar...0. Dec.... : Mar...5. Dec : Mar June...7. Dec : Mar Employer costs for employee benefits. NOTE. The employment cost index is a measure of the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations industries. Data exclude farm household workers. Data beginning are based on the North American Industry Classification (NAICS); data prior to are based on the Stard Industrial Classification (SIC). For details on industry classification other details see Employment Cost Index, release dated April 8,. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5

18 PRODUCTIVITY AND RELATED DATA, BUSINESS SECTOR Output per hour of all persons Business sector Nonfarm business sector Business sector Output Nonfarm business sector Business sector Hours of all persons Nonfarm business sector Compensation per hour 3 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Real compensation per hour 4 Business sector Nonfarm business sector Indexes, 99 = 00; quarterly data seasonally adjusted Business sector Unit labor costs Nonfarm business sector Implicit price deflator 5 Business sector Nonfarm business sector r r r r r r r r r r : I'. r I : I'. r I : P. I : P I IV : P Percent change; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates r r r r r r r r r r : : : : : P. I IV P. I IV P. I IV P. I IV P _ Output refers to real gross domestic product originating in the sector. Hours of all persons engaged in the sector, including hours of proprietors unpaid family workers. Estimates based primarily on establishment data. s Wages salaries of employees plus employers' contributions for social insurance private benefit plans. Also includes an estimate of wages, salaries, supplemental payments for the selfemployed. 4 Hourly compensation divided by the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI U) for recent quarters. The trend from 978 is based on the consumer price index research series (CPIURS). 5 Current dollar gross domestic output divided by the output index. NOTE. Data relate to all persons engaged in the sector. Percent changes are from preceding period are based on original data; they therefore may differ slightly from percent changes based on indexes shown here. Data based on GDP data released on July 3,. Data reflect the benchmark revision of the national income product accounts released on July 3,. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6

19 PRODUCTION AND BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production capacity utilization rose in July. INDEX, = 00 (RATIO SCALE) 40 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION </" ! Mill: MANUFACTURING y in HI DURABLE! i i UTILITIES AND MINING T ^_ "' ^TOTAL 3NDURABLE UTILITIES A / «/ MINING ^ 7 ^ ~ A'A, V INDEX, = 00 (RATIO SCALE) 80 FINAL PRODUCTS > "' BUSINESS EQUIPMENT DEFENSE ^ND 30 SPACE EQUI 0 / ry ^ ^ PERCENT J v "" CONSUME! GOODS,»,». CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (TOTAL INDUSTRY) V ^hs ^ V K I nmlnih i, M l l ll i 'SEE FOOTNOTE TABLE BELOW SEA5ONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Monthly data seasonally adjusted] industrial production r Index, = 00 Percent change From preceding month From year earlier Industry production indexes, = 00 Manufacturing Durable Nondurable Other (non NAICS) Mining Utilities Capacity utilization rate (output as percent of capacity) industry manufacturing : July Aug Oct Nov Dec.... : Jan Feb r Mar r Apr r Mayr June r Julyp industry total manufacturing series include manufacturing as defined in the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) plus those industries logging newspaper, periodical, book directorypublishing that have traditionally been included in manufacturing. Percent changes based on unrounded indexes NOTE. Data based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) except series as defined in footnote. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 7

20 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MAJOR MARKET GROUPS AND SELECTED MANUFACTURES [ = 00; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Products nonindustrial supplies Materials Final products Nonindustrial supplies Consumer Durable Nondurable Equipment Business equipment Defense space equipment Construction supplies Business supplies Energy : July Aug. Oet. Nov. Dee : Jan.. Feb r. Mar r Apr r. May r June r Julyp Includes other items, not shown separately. [ = 00; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Primary metals Iron steel products Fabricated metal products Machinery Computer electronic products Selected hightechnology Transportation equipment Motor vehicles parts Apparel Printing support Chemical Food : July. Aug... Oet.. Nov.. Dee : Jan.. Feb r. Mar r Apr r. May r June r Julyp Computers peripheral equipment, communications equipment, semiconductors related electronic components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 8

21 NEW CONSTRUCTION Billions of dollars; monthly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] New housing Lodging Nonresidential Commercial (including farm) new construction expenditures Manufacturing Federal State local , , : July Aug. Oet.. Nov. Dee.,070.,066.,08.,064.,037, : Jan Feb Mar Apr May r June r JULYP Includes residential improvements, not shown separately. Includes health care, educational, communication, power, among other categories not shown separately. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. NEW PRIVATE HOUSING AND VACANCY RATES [Thouss of units or houses, except as noted] New private housing units Units started, by type of structure unit 4 units 5 units or more Units authorized Units completed New private houses Houses sold Houses for sale at end of period Vacancy rate for rental housing units (percent) 3...,...,...,...,...,,640.9,568.7,60,704.9,847.7,955,068,800.9, ,30,30.9,73,358,499,60.5,75,465.4, ,66,59,636.7,747.7,889. 4,070.,55,838.9, ,303.9, ,570,648.4,678.7,84.9,9,979.4,50, ,086,03,83, Seasonally adjusted annual rates : July , , Oct , Nov Dec , : Jan Feb Mar May r June r Julyp ,089,08,48,055,084, r r ^6 Derived; seasonally adjusted monthly data for 4 units are no longer published. Seasonally adjusted. s Revised series. Quarterly data entered in last month of quarter. 4 Based on 0,000 permitissuing places. Based on 9,000 places, the total for is,05. thous units. NOTE. Beginning, units authorized are for 0,000 permitissuing places. For other data shown, units authorized are for 9,000 places. Beginning, housing starts, completions, sales are not directly comparable with earlier data due to new estimation methods. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 9

22 BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES Manufacturing Trade In June, according to current estimates, manufacturing trade sales rose. percent inventories fell $6.9 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales fell 0. percent in July. Retail food services sales also fell 0. percent. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE),700,600,500 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) RETAIL INVENTORIES N,400,300 r VANUFACTURING AND 400 RETAIL AND FOOD,00 350,00,000 v_/ < N ' MANUFACTURING > AND TRADE SALES 300 RETAIL S/UES RATIO 0 INVENTORYSALES RATIO.70 Mill I! him y Illllllllll PFTill V MAS i IFAITI s^r, I A ND TRADE / rj^ v ^ ~y iiinhmi iiniliiiii iniiiiiim A Illllllllll SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Millions of dollars, except ratios; seasonally adjusted, except as noted] Manufacturing sale R Wholesale Retail Sales Inventories 3 Inventorysales ratio 4 Sales Inventories 3 Inventory sales ratio 4 Sales Inventories 3 Inventory sales ratio 4 Retail food services sales...4,...8,...53,...93,...,..., : June r July r Aug..., Oct...., Nov..., Dec 786, ,35 88,65 83,74 853,596 93,39,000,368,064,87,0,96,36,984,90,57,90,67,66,9,38,586,095,637,036,85,000,60,38,98,98,0,0,85,4,33,48,38,40,05,307,060,39,9,447,00,455,97,496,70,505,48,507,36,500,86,49,3,477,56,455,97 34, ,597 34,546 3,096 36,94 46,857 74,70 97,95 33, ,87 375, ,96 39, ,40 378,65 36, ,65 35,67 90,38 309,46 97,97 30,89 307,64 337,983 36,45 39,9 46,63 49,57 439,95 44,45 443,937 44,58 438,49 434,986 49, ,046 34, ,644 6,94 7,3 89,58 307^80 3,46 33,90 39, , , ,73 38,469 37,98 309,74 98, , , ,775 0,89 43,37 46,37 47, , ,44, ,03 500,48 500, , ,3 484,44 6, , ,797 74,58 8,3 88,845 30,64 30,56 340, ,84 369, ,74 376, ,37 37,9 366, , , ,438 : Jan Feb...987, Mar...969, Apr Mayr Junep Julyp 998,08 987, , ,89 967, ,38,438,63,48,398,400,55,38,79,365,34,348, ,73 38,49 30,73 30,74 3, ,9 45,95 48,539 4,09 405, , , ,9 304,889 30, ,7 30,595 r 304, , , , ,50 460,035 45,03 447, , ,8 339,8 338, ,873 r 34,497 34,309 See page for manufacturing. Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. s Seasonally adjusted, end of period. 4 Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 0

23 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS In July, manufacturers' new unfilled orders rose, inventories fell, while shipments were vitually unchanged. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) SHIPMEN TOTAL DURABLE GOODS, < BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) INVENTO 500 / 460 ^ TOTAL DURABLE GOODS i~ " ;? m N n h ill m m NONDURABLE GOODS... BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) NEW ORDtKb. >> /. / Illlllll IN "" / TOTAL ABLE GOODS X t~ "^V 40 RATIO m M MllllMMI INVENTORYSHIPMENTS RATIO f N M M r ( hmi SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Manufacturers' shipments Durable Nondurable Manufacturers' inventories Durable Nondurable Manufacturers' new orders Durable Capital industries, nondefense Manufacturers' unfilled orders Manufacturers' inventory shipments ratio 3 Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, except as noted....30,...34,...59,...48,...43, : July...46, Aug...445,...43, Oct....45, Nov...88, Dec....75, : Jan...66, Feb...64, Mar...58, Apr...56, May...53, June r Julyp 335,99 350,75 330,875 36,7 334,66 359,08 395,73 48,330 43,43 43,99 46, ,455 43,49 45, ,98 375, , , , , ,45 359,98 359,749 93,895 97,807 8,0 76,968 78,549 88,7 0,070 3,408 3,57 07,80 7,549 08,339 08,40 0,9 9,77 89,90 79,433 77,83 74,47 73,80 68,483 69,836 73,56 4,096 5,908 49,674 49,59 56,067 70,359 93,03 04,93 09,85 4,8 44,830 37,6 3,5 4,78 96,56 86,070 86,933 86,648 83,656 83,50 84,94 90,09 86, ,65 48,673 48,3 43,33 408, ,697 47,860 5, ,664 54, ,070 56,78 558,96 554,990 55,53 54, ,850 58,90 5,66 56,545 5,55 506, ,3 96, ,77 67,89 60,58 46,963 65,070 83, ,94 77, , ,85 339, ,78 34,68 34,59 343, , ,64 39,460 35,404 3,576 36,667 33,748 67,07 74,946 60,84 6,55 6,34 75,67 89,6 5, ,907 98,58,885 3,748 8,568 3,8 09,994 98,58 96,5 93,756 93,0 9,4 90,939 90,03 89,375 39, ,789 3,746 36,809, ,9 354,69 395,40 0, ,907 4, , ,0 49,86 403,35 377,03 358,8 346,0 348,460 34, , ,66 90,03 355,466 87,674 93,88 73,07 67, ,304 84,6 83,598 4,87 7,746 05,6 8,63 3, ,034 88,534 8,047 7,74 59,87 6,8 58,79 60,50 6, ,685 89,3 64,39 69,78 58,46 5,87 5,894 56,094 65,770 7,75 74, ,498 68,694 67,93 63,487 60,40 53,964 48,637 70, ,69 49,08 53,099 53,04 57, , ,445 54,349 46, 477, ,343 57, , ,97 800,360 6,993 86,59 88,5 80^67 8, , , , ,69 749,08 746, , , Annual data are averages of monthly not seasonally adjusted figures; monthly data are seasonally adjusted totals for month. Shipments are the same as sales. Seasonally adjusted, end of period. s Annual data are averages of seasonally adjusted monthly ratios. NOTE. Manufacturers' nondurable new orders (not shown) are the same as nondurable shipments. Also, there are no unfilled nondurable orders; data shown for total unfilled orders are durable unfilled orders. durable shipments inventories include data on semiconductors; new unfilled orders do not. Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

24 PRICES PRODUCER PRICES The producer price index for all finished fell 0.9 percent in July. Prices of finished consumer foods fell.5 percent, while prices of other finished consumer fell 0.9 percent. Capital equipment prices fell 0. percent. INDEX, 98 = 00 (RATIO SCALE) 0 INDEX, 98 = 00 (RATIO SCALE) SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF LABOR [98 = 00; monthly data seasonally adjusted] Finished Intermediate materials Crude materials finished Consumer foods Finished excluding consumer foods Consumer Durable Nondurable Capital equip ment finished consumer Foods feeds Other Foodstuffs feedstuffs Other : : July Aug. Oet.. Nov. Dee. Jan. Peb.. Mar r Apr.. May June July Intermediate materials for food manufacturing feeds. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

25 CONSUMER PRICES ALL URBAN CONSUMERS In July, the consumer price index for all urban consumers was virtually unchanged; it fell 0. percent not seasonally adjusted. The index was. percent below its yearearlier level. INDEX, 9884 =00 (RATIO SCALE) 30 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDEX, 9884 = 00 (RATIO SCALE) CONSUMER PRICES^LL ITEMS js r i S~ 00 /I I,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, i,,,,, COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISE [9884 = 00, except as noted; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted] All items Housing Transportation Not seasonally adjusted (NSA) Seasonally adjusted Food Shelter Rent of primary residence Owners' equivalent rent (/8 = 00) Motor fuel Medical care Fuels utilities Apparel Energy All items less food energy : July Aug Oet Nov Dee : Jan... Feb Mar Apr May June July Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc. motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc. excluded beginning 983. s Relative importance, December. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3

26 CHANGES IN PRODUCER PRICES FOR FINISHED GOODS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] finished Change from preceding period Consumer Excluding foods Capital equipment Change from 3 months earlier, annual rate finished Consumer Excluding foods Capital equipment Change from 6 months earlier, annual rate finished Consumer Excluding foods Capital equipment Change from year earlier, total finished NSA Change, Dec. to Dec., NSA Change, month to month : July Aug.. Oct... Nov.. Dec.. : Jan. Feb... Mar r Apr.. May.. June July r r r r r Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. CHANGES IN CONSUMER PRICES ALL URBAN CONSUMERS [Percent change from preceding period; monthly data seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] All items Housing Shelter Rent of primary residence Owners' equivalent rent Transportation New cars Motor fuel Fuels utilities Apparel Medical care Energy All items less food energy From previous quarter 3 Addendum: All items, percent change (annual rate) From 3 months earlier months earlier From year earlier NSA Change, December to December, NSA _ Change, month to month : July Aug Oct.. Nov Dec : Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July _ !o.... _ _ Includes items not shown separately. Household fuels gas (piped), electricity, fuel oil, etc. motor fuel. Motor oil, coolant, etc., excluded beginning 983. s Quarterly changes are shown in the last month of the quarter. Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 4

27 PRICES RECEIVED AND PAID BY FARMERS In August, prices received by farmers fell 3 percent prices paid by farmers were unchanged. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) INDEX, 9909= 00 (RATIO SCALE) / RATIO 40 / A If t j () iiiniiiiii ^, > ^~ I r r^ PRICES PAID INDEX, 9909=00 (RATIO SCALE) I I I I I I I! E! i! I I! M j iii [ i I r ^ RATIO RATIO I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ' I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l i i l I I I I I I I 60 'RATIO OF INDEX OF PRICES RECEIVED TO INDEX OF PRICES PAID. SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE COUNCILOFECONOMICADVISERS [9909 = 00; not seasonally adjusted] Prices received by farmers Prices paid by farmers All farm products Crops Livestock products All commodities, services, interest, taxes, wage rates Production items, interest, taxes, wage rates Production items Ratio : Aug Oct Nov Dec : Jan Feb Mar Aprr Mayr June r Julyr Augp Includes items not shown separately. Percentage ratio of index of prices received by farmers to index of prices taxes, wage rates. NOTE. The official indexes are published on a 904 base as required by law. The in dexes have been converted to a 9909 = 00 base to facilitate comparison with other indexes. Source: Department of Agriculture. paid, interest, 5

28 MONEY, CREDIT, AND SECURITY MARKETS MONEY STOCK AND DEBT MEASURES In July, M fell. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 9,00 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO SCALE) 9,00 8,400,.' 8,400 7,600 6,800 6,000 5,00 '~ "" x M _ 7,600 6,800 6,000 5,00 4,400 4,400 3,600 3,600 3,00 3,00,800,800,400,400,000,000,600 Ml,600,00 _,00 M It I m ll ll 0O7 [Averages of daily figures, except debt endofperiod basis; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] M M Debt Percent change Sum of currency, dem deposits, travelers checks, other checkable deposits (OCDs) M plus retail MMMF balances, savings deposits (including MMDAs), small time deposits Debt of domestic nonfinancial sectors From year or 6 months earlier M M From previous period 3 Debt : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : Dec : July Aug Oet. Nov Dec : Jan Feb r Mar r Apr r May r June July,,087.7,8,0.4,306,376.4,37,365,37,595,409,39,45.5,474.7,5,595,576,559,563,593,597,650, ,635 4,97. 5,4 5, ,07.7 6,4 6,674. 7,033 7, ,5 7,75.7 7,698. 7,808 7,97 7,980 8,5 8,35.9 8,63 8, ,8 8, ,370 8,349. 7,305 8,80 9,37 0,77,438.46,4 6, ,6. 3, ,580 33, ,580 33, Quarterly data; shown in last month of quarter. Endofyear data are for fourth quarter. Consists of outsting credit market debt of the U.S. Government, State local governments, private nonfinancial sectors; data from flow of funds accounts. Annual changes are from December to December monthly changes are from 6 months earlier at a simple annual rate. s Annual changes are from fourth quarter to fourth quarter. Quarterly changes are from previous quarter at an annual rate. NOTE. The Federal Reserve previously announced that the M3 monetary aggregate most of its components would no longer be published. Institutional money market mutual funds will continue to be published as a memorum item in the H release, the component on largedenomination time deposits will be published in other Federal Reserve Board releases. For details, see H release of March 3,. See p. 7 for components. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 6

29 COMPONENTS OF MONEY STOCK [Averages of daily figures; billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted] : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dec r... : July Aug Oet Nov Dec r... : Jan Feb r... Mar r... Apr r May r... June r... July Currency Nonbank travelers checks De m deposits Other checkable deposits (OCDs) At commercial banks Savings deposits including money market deposit accounts (MMDAs). Smalldenomination deposits are those issued in amounts of less than $00,000. s Institutional money funds are not part of nonm M. At thrift institutions ,739.5,878,309,77 3,6 3, ,60 3,69 3, ,0. 4,03 4, ,03.5 4, ,06 4, ,9. 4,37 4,34 4, ,47.7 4,50 Savings deposits At commercial banks,88.4,44,738,060.,337.9,63.,773.9, ,04 3, ,30.9 3,6.5 3,70 3,50 3,47.5 3, ,500. 3,567. 3,533. 3,65.4 3,64 3,666 At thrift institutions , , , Smalldenomination time deposits 955., ,67,4,378,9.9,44, ,360,378,369,355.4,34,30,300,80,53 At commercial banks , ,080.,3,06.9,07.9, NOTE. See Note, p. 6. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System , Retail money funds ,078.4,06,056.,055.,090.5,080.,078.4,075.,057.5,34,05, At thrift institutions Institutional money funds ,9. 0,9.,080, ,899,385,59,80.9,45.5,7,3.5,385,47 4,9,49,30,538.4,5.,507 AGGREGATE RESERVES AND MONETARY BASE [Averages of daily figures ; millions of dollars; seasonally adjusted, except as noted by NSA] Adjusted for changes in reserve requirements Borrowings from the Federal Reserve (NSA) Reserves of depository institutions Other borrowings from the Federal Reserve Nonborrowed 3 Required Excess (NSA) Monetary base 4 Term auction credit Primary Primary dealer other brokerdealer credit 5 Assetbacked commerical paper money market mutual fund liquidity facility Credit extended to American International Group, Inc. Adjustment 6 : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : July...44, Aug...45,..., Oct....5, Nov...9, Dee : Jan Feb Mar Apr May June r July 4,83 38,77 4,44 40,400 4,757 46,55 45,39 43,338 43,59 8,034 44,93 45,458 0,767 35, ,939 8, , ,97 779,95 88,553 90,9 809,09 795,569 4,86 38,507 4,376 40,30 4,7 46,489 44,970 43,47 8,088 67,468,370,60 87,338 33,8 88,846 67,468 94,909 8,475 67,840 33, , ,97 48,608 40,889 37,39 39,799 38,39 4,70 44,643 43,38 4,475 4,749 53,635 4,376 43,486 4,73 47,594 50,90 53,635 60,7 57,485 55,39 57,76 57,9 57,64 6,56,94,35,643,008,047,909,90,863, ,398,97,97 60,054 67, , , ,33 643,486 74,63 84, ,00 75, , ,84 584,98 635,557 68,69 70,40 759,07 786,976 8,6 8,4,65,70 838,367 84,98 905,64,30,95,433,496,65,70,703,4,557,49,643,40,749,79,770,77,680,630,666,38 Data are prorated averages of biweekly (maintenance period) averages of daily figures. Reserves monetary base incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or "breaks," associated with changes in reserve requirements. Seasonally adjusted breakadjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves. s Seasonally adjusted breakadjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings of depository institutions from the Federal Reserve ,43 653,565 65,664 68,078 90,05 648,39 698, , ,6 58, , ,94 55, ,7 366,96,63 438,37 50,000 50,000 49,84 44, , ,37 403,53 438,8 477, , ,970 36,8 55, ,787 88,45 5,04 7,980 3,63 77,047 95,839 88,45 63,496 65,463 6,53 47,34 40,4 37,30 34,366 47, ,473 4,953 60,655 47,63 33,06 6,50 0,9 0, ,0 3,877 7,457 7,009 3,0 7,745 3,533 7,857 4,67 3,347 8,89 6,30 47,06,87 77,047 78,070 47,06 38,690 38,44 43,38 45,057 44,95 43,057 43,08 4 Includes secondary seasonal, other credit extensions, not shown separately. 5 Includes credit extended through the Primary Dealer Credit Facility credit extended to other brokerdealers. 6 Discontinued after January 8,. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

30 BANK CREDIT AT ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS commercial bank loans leases fell.5 percent in July; commercial industrial loans fell percent. BILLIO 0,000 9,000 8,000 6,000. H 5,000 4,000 S OF DOLIARS (RATIO SCALE) ALL COMMfcKCIAL BANKS " "H _ ~ ^ TOTAL u LOANS AND L EASES I, ^ " BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (RATIO ^ SCALE),000 0,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 3,000,000,000 U.S. TREASURY AND AGENCY SECURITIES,600,00 y, OTHER SECURITIES 400 f ~l ill I I I i I I I I I l l Ill in i i i i i 400 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted Securities in bank credit Loans leases in bank credit bank credit securities U.S. Treasury agency securities loans leases 3 Other securities Commercial industrial loans 4 Real estate loans Revolving home equity loans Commercial loans Consumer loans 5 Other loans leases 5 : Dec....4, : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dee : Dec...., : Dec....7, : Dec...., : Dec...., : Dec....9, : July...9, Aug...9,...9, Oct. Nov...9, Dec....9, : Jan...9, Feb....9, Mar r Apr r Mayr June r July...9, 4,60. 5,046. 5, 5, ,06.5 6, ,6.5 8, ,830 9,38 9,06 9,04.4 9,58. 9,49.9 9,360 9,38 9,97.7 9,36.5 9,95 9,63 9, , ,68.9,48.,9,38,53.,637,79.,87,96,069.,06,055.9,040,08,96.5,6.,06,,34.,65,77.5,03,5.7, ,05,07,66.9,58.4,0,4,40,35,36.7,54,,5,40,69,59,7,6,64.5,300., ,46. 3,854 3,893,054 4, , ,434. 6,077 6,76.7 7,54.9 6, ,973 7,076 7,95.4 7,34.4 7,54.9 7,8 7,8.5 7,30 7,086 7,4 7,09 6, ,08, ,0,8,46.,68,567,57,588,644,638,68,60.5,586,56,543,56.,50,487,458.7,636.7,755.4,005,0.9,548.,96 3,355 3,587 3,80. 3,6 3,6 3,660 3,87. 3,89.7 3,80. 3,80 3,88.4 3, ,88 3, , ,078,67,455.,588,7,664,666.4,673,76.,70,7,60.53,77,563,87,73.,7,706, Data are prorated averages of Wednesday values for domestically chartered commercial banks, branches agencies of foreign banks, New York State investment companies (through ember 996), Edge Act agreement corporations. Data are adjusted for breaks caused by reclassifications of assets liabilities. Includes securities held in trading accounts, heldtomaturity, availableforsale. Excludes all nonsecurity trading assets, such as derivatives with a positive fair value or loans held in trading accounts. 8 s Excludes unearned income. Includes the allowance for loan lease losses. Excludes Federal funds sold to, reverse repurchase agreements (RPs) with, loans to commercial banks in the United States. Includes all loans held in trading accounts under a fair value option. 4 Includes closedend residential loans, not shown separately. 5 Includes other items, not shown separately. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

31 SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS, NONFARM NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Sources Uses External (N et increase in liabilities Funds raised in markets Discrep TIQI nal net raised Net new equity issues Credit market instruments Securities mortgages Loans shortterm paper Other Capital expenditures 3 Increase in financial assets (sources less uses)..., ,...,..., : I...,..., I...., IV..., : I..., I..., IV..., : Ip,78, ,537.5,06,9.5,58,578.4,335,94,90.4,5,797,757,55,06, ,086,047,064.,08,03,065,06.7,0,008.7,088.,8, , , 54,306.,6.,5.4, , , ,65.4,5,85.4, ,833, ,608,879,77.5,09.5,58,7,,087.,048.4,740.9,70.4,574,304, ,059.4,047,066.9,009.,04,083,05,066.7,0,065.7, , , ,08,068.7, Profits before tax (book) less taxes on corporate income, less net dividends, plus capital consumption allowance (consumption of fixed capital plus capital consumption adjustment), foreign earnings retained abroad, inventory valuation adjustment, net capital transfers. Includes trade payables, taxes payable, miscellaneous liabilities (foreign direct investment in the U.S., pension fund contributions payable, other). s Nonresidential fixed investment plus residential fixed investment, inventory change with inventory valuation adjustment, nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. CONSUMER CREDIT [Billions of dollars; seasonally adjusted] Consumer credit outsting (end of period) Revolving Nonrevolving Revolving Net change in consumer credit outsting Nonrevolving : : : : : : : : : : Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec,53,77.7,867.,970.7,076.4,9.7,90.9,384,59., ,03,5.4,9,308,39,460.7,5,579, : June July Aug Oct Nov Dec,573,58.4,574.9,579.,574,565.5, ,608.,609.5,60.4,605.7,60,600.5, : Jan Feb Mar Apr May,56,55.5,535,58.4,5, ,607,607.,599,59,590, Change based on data in billions of dollars as shown here. For yearend data, change from preceding yearend; for monthly data, change from preceding month. Includes automobile loans all other loans not included in revolving credit, such as loans for mobile homes, education, boats, trailers, or vacations. These loans may be secured or unsecured. NOTE. Effective October 7, data beginning 977 include student loans extended by the Federal Government by SLM Holding Corporation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 9

32 INTEREST RATES AND BOND YIELDS Interest rates were mixed in August. PERCENT PER ANNUM PERCENT PER ANNUM CORPORATE Aaa BONDS t (MnnnKi / fv^ /"' FEDERALFUNDS / A'" / v " v A TREASURY BILLS ^ / [ i i i M f i i i n i M i I! N If I I I I ll ff^rrtri SOURCE. SEE TABLE BELOW [Percent per annum] 3month bills (at auction) U.S. Treasury security yields 3year0year Constant maturities 30year 30year Highgrade municipal bonds (Stard & Poor's) 3 Corporate Aaa bonds (Moody s) Discount window (N.Y. F.R. Bank) 45 Primary credit Discount rate Prime rate charged by banks 5 Federal funds rate 6 Newhome mortgage yields (FHFB) : Aug Oct. Nov Dec : Jan. Feb. Mar Apr. May. June July. Aug Week ended: Aup : High bill rate at auction, issue date within period, bankdiscount basis. Data are stop yields from uniformprice auctions. Yields on actively traded issues adjusted to constant maturities. s Weekly data are Wednesday figures. 4 Discount window borrowing for primary credit discount rate (adjustment credit). The rate for primary credit replaced the rate for adjustment credit. 5 Average effective rate for year; rate in effect at end of month or week Daily effective rate; weighted average of rates on brokered trades. 7 Effective rate (in the primary market) on conventional mortgages, reflecting fees charges as well as contract rate assumed, on the average, repayment at end of 0 years. Discount rate (adjustment credit) series was discontinued after January 8,. Series for 30year constant maturity was discontinued on February 8,, reintroduced on February 9,. Sources: Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Housing Finance Board, Moody's Investors Service, Stard & Poor's.

33 COMMON STOCK PRICES AND YIELDS Stock stock prices rose in August. INDEX, DEC. 3,=5,000 (RATIO SCALE),000 0,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 A V L jt V r A r CJOAAPOSITE STOCK (NYSE) 'RICE INDEX 7 /VS INDEX, DEC. 3,=5,000 (RATIO SCALE),000 0,000 k A / V 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 iii PERCENT PERCENT I I I SOURCES: NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE AND STANDARD AND POOR'S COUNCILOF ECONOMIC ADVISERS : Aug. Oet.. Nov. Dee. : Jan.. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Week ended: : Aug Composite 6,546 6, , ,6 7,3490 8, ,648 8,0368 8,360 7, ,309 5,573 5, , ,05.4 4, ,3389 5,8 5,9854 6, , ,5389 6,499 6, ,557.9 New York Stock Exchange indexes 3 (December 3, = 5,000) Financial 5,580 6,8 7,380 8, ,39 6,788 6, ,59 4,734 3,7796 3, ,337.4,84,6335 3,37 3, ,94.9 4,0006 4,6460 4,595. 4,60.5 4,5759 4,7774 4,647.5 Energy 5, ,956 9,3774, , ,58.4 3,774,56 9,55.7 9,67 9,363 9, ,7854 8,66 8, ,8486 0,894 9,7659 0,95.9 0,355 0, , ,50 0,059 Average of daily closing prices. Includes all the stocks (nearly,850) listed on the NYSE. s Effective January 9,, the NYSE relaunched the composite index with changes in methodology, definitions, based on Dec. 3, = 5,000. Effective January 8, new indexes for Financial, Energy, Health Care were introduced by the NYSE. Previous indexes shown for Industrial, Transportation, Utility, Finance were discontinued. 4 Includes 30 stocks. Common stock prices Health Care 5,887 5,940 6, ,6856 7,9 6,7.9 6,68.9 6,365 5,433 5, ,0903 5,56 5, ,596 4,77.7 5, ,4 5,40. 5, ,6378 5, , ,894 5,733. Dow Jones industrial average 4 0,4648 0, ,89 9,6.43 8,999 0,379 0,5477,4087 3,69.98,5,530.75,8 9,76.7 8, , , , , ,99 8,3987 8,590 8, ,3756 9,30 9,33 9,979 9,5438 9,3749 Stard & Poor's composite index (94 43 = 0) 5,373,47., ,305,07,30.46,477.9,04,8.47, ,009.7,00, ,08,006 Nasdaq composite index (Feb. 5, 97 = 00) 6,78.5 3,7837,0350,539.73,647.7, ,6,578.47,65,8.47,7,730,540,559,537.0,485.98,433,64.5,768,86.99,8734,997,997.8,004,99,97,043, Common stock yields (percent) 7 Dividendprice ratio Earningsprice ratio Includes 500 stocks. 6 Includes about 3,000 stocks. 7 Stard & Poor's series. Dividendprice ratios based on Wednesday closing prices. Earningsprice ratios based on prices at end of quarter. Sources: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones & Company, Inc., Stard & Poor's, Nasdaq Stock Market

34 FEDERAL FINANCE FEDERAL RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND DEBT In the tenth month of fiscal, there was a deficit of $,67 billion, compared with a deficit of $388 billion a year earlier. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,00 RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,00 3,000,800,600,400,00,000,800,600 OUTLAYS' BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,00 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,000,800,600,400,00,000,800, SURPLUS OR DEFICIT () ,00,600, FISCAL YEARS 'INCLUDES ONBUDGET AND OFFBUDGET ITEMS. 5OURCE5; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFFCE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET 800,00,600,000 [Billions of dollars] Fiscal year or period Receipts Outlays Surplus or deficit Receipts Onbudget Outlays Surplus or deficit Receipts Offbudget Outlays Surplus or deficit Federal debt (end of period) Gross Federal Held by the public (estimates) r 00 (estimates) r,09,54.5,58.7,35.9,45,579.4,7,87,05.5,99.4,85,78.5,880,53.9,407,568.,54,07,64.4,38,409.5,46.9,55.9,560,60,65,70,789.,86,0.,60.,9,47,655.4,78.9,98 3,653 3, ,579, ,000.9,085.7,87.4,306.,38,544.9,483.9,338.,58.7,345.5,576.4,798.9,93,866,4,60,9,4,8.5,7.,59.7,90.7,306.,38,3,458.5,56.4,655.5,797.,9,070,3,75,508. 3,3 3, ,7, ,00 4,35 4,643 4,90 5,8.5 5,369. 5,478. 5,605 5,68.7 5, ,98.4 6,760 7, ,905 8,45.4 8, ,985, 4,087, ,48.4 3,433. 3, ,734. 3,77 3,7. 3, ,39 3, ,9 4,95.5 4,59 4,89 5,035. 5,80 7,855 9,574.7 Cumulative total, first 0 months: Fiscal year. Fiscal year.,094.4,740.,48 3, ,67,5,87,5.5, , ,547.4,63 5, ,36. Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. NOTE. Data for fiscal fiscal 00 are from MidSession Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 00, issued August 5,. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 00, issued May,. Sources: Department of the Treasury Office of Management Budget. 3

35 FEDERAL RECEIPTS BY SOURCE AND OUTLAYS BY FUNCTION In the tenth month of fiscal, receipts were $35 billion lower than a year earlier outlays were $54. billion higher. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS,400 RECEIPTS, n " SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RtTIRLMtNl RbCblPlb INCOME TAXES. rzr Tm OTHER RECEIPTS'' ^ _ BILLIONS OF DOLLARS,400,00, ,400 fl OUTLAYS 3,00 3,000,800,600,400 _,00,000,800,600,400 " NONDEFENSE / _ 3,00 3,000,800,600,400,00,000,800,600, NATIONAL DEFENSE _ T~ I I l NCLUDES ONBUDGET AND OFFBUDGET ITEMS. SOURCES: DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY AND OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET FISCAL YEARS 00 l I [Billions of dollars] Onbudget offbudget receipts Onbudget offbudget outlays Fiscal year or period Individual income taxes poration income taxes Social insurance retirement receipts National defense Department of Defense, military International affairs Income security Social security Net inter ,09,54.5,58.7,35.9,45,579.4,7, ,38,409.5,46.9,55.9,56,60,65, (estimates) r 00 (estimates) r,05.5,004.5, ,85 858, , , ,407,043.9,568.,6,54,45.7,07 90,64.4, ,789.,86,0.,60.,9,47,655.4,78.9,98 3,653 3, Cumulative total, first 0 months: Fiscal year Fiscal year,094.4, ,48 3, Data from current issue Monthly Treasury Statement. Data for Department of Defense, military, include a small amount classified as international affairs, not included in national defense. NOTE. Data for fiscal fiscal 00 are from MidSession Review, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 00, issued August 5,. Other data (except as noted) are from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 00, issued May,. Sources: Department of the Treasury Office of Management Budget. 33

36 FEDERAL SECTOR, NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS BASIS In the second quarter of, according to revised estimates, Federal current receipts fell $36 billion (annual rate), while Federal current expenditures rose $89 billion. BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,000 3,600 3,00,800,400,000,600, ,00 rrrrrr: S ^ _^«SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATES CURRENT EXPENDITURES, ' < CURRENT NET FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SAVING s "X v"' BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4,000 3,600 / 3,00,800,400,000,600, ,00,600 E i i i i i i!,600 CALENDAR YEARS SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE [Billions of dollars; quarterly data at seasonally adjusted annual rates] Calendar year:...,...,...,...,..., : I...,..., I...., IV..., : I...,..., I...., IV..., : I...,..., I...., IV..., : I r IF,895,057.,00,859,885.,03.9,90.,54.5,660,475,473,50,547.4,575.,640.,660.,659.9,68,590.7,37.,489.5,447,5,4.7, , , ,38,558,647.,4,57,54,58,59,638,65,644,65.7,546,3,435.,38,9.5,46.5 Federal Government current receipts Current tax receipts Personal current taxes ,049.9,68.,0.5,03.,034.7,053.9,088,36,57,77,00,95 98,0., Taxes on production imports Taxes on corporate income Includes taxes from the rest of the world, not shown separately. Includes a subtraction for wage accruals less disbursements, not shown separately. Income receipts on assets Current transfer receipts , ,979,.,6.5,39,573.,78,897. 3,7,68.,7,76,738.,8,88,98.7, ,0 3,69 3,55. 3, 3,0 3,509 Federal Government current expenditures ,047.4,40 5, ,49,587.,688,840,55,588.9,60,60,666.,67,694.,7,759.5,904.5,89,869.5,98., Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Contributions for government social insurance Current surplus of government enterprises Consumption expenditures Current transfer payments Interest payments Subsidies Net Federal Government saving ,

37 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMER PRICES MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES Industrial production ( = 00; seasonally adjusted) Consumer prices (9884=00; NSA) United States Japan Italy United Kingdom United States Japan Germany Germany United Kingdom r 97.4 r r 00. r 00 r 0 r 0 r : June r July Aug r. r Oct r.. Nov r. Dec r : Jan r. Feb r. Mar r. Apr r. May r Junep Julyp Data relate to all urban consumers. NOTE. See Note, p. 7, for information on U.S. industrial production series. Source: National sources as reported by Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis International Trade Administration, Office of Trade Industry Information) Council of Economic Advisers. U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES [Billions of dollars; monthly data seasonally adjusted] BOP Goods: Exports (f.a s. value)good c, Census basis ensus basis (by enduse category) Foods, feeds, beverages Industrial supplies materials Capital except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts engines Consumer (nonfood) except automotive BOP, Census basis Goods: Imports (customs value) c ensus basis (by enduse category ) Foods, feeds, beverages Industrial supplies materials Services (BOP basis) Goods, asis Balance of trade (exports minus imports) oods BOP basis Capital except automotive Automotive vehicles, parts engines Consumer (nonfood) except automotive Exports Imports Services Goods : June July Aug Oet.. Nov Dec.. : Jan.. Feb.. Mar Apr.. May Junep ,05,38.4, ,06,48., ,6.7,48,68,64.9,478,68,863.,969.4, ,04,8,,6.4,57.,469.7,67,853.9,957, includes "other" exports or imports, not shown separately. NOTE. BOP refers to balance of payments on international transactions basis. BOP data shown here are consistent with figures shown on pp Source: Department of Commerce (Bureau of the Census Bureau of Economic Analysis). 35