Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D.

Transcription

1 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute Division of Innovation and Applied Research Towson University October 19, 2017

2 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product 2006Q1-2017Q2, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted $19,000 $17,000 $15,000 Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars $13,000 $11,000 $9,000 $7,000 $5,000 $3,000 $1,000 -$1,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investment Net exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

3 140 Length and Average GDP Growth of the Five Longest Post-WWII Expansions 6.0% % % Months of Recovery % % % % 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% Average Growth % Q1-1969Q4 1982Q4-1990Q3 1991Q1-2001Q1 2001Q4-2007Q4 2009Q2-present 0.0% Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: BEA, National Bureau for Economic Research

4 Projected US Demographics By Age Annual Percent Change, % 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% Percent Change 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% -0.50% Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: US Census Bureau

5 GOP Tax Framework Personal Exemption Estate Tax Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax Alternative Minimum Tax Most itemized deductions Three tax brackets 12%, 25%, 35% Increases Child Tax Credit Doubles the standard deduction 25% maximum tax rate on family-owned businesses 20% corporate tax rate Repatriation of overseas assets Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: GOP Tax Framework Plan, Business Insider

6 Who Will Head the Fed? Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Wikimedia

7 Exchange Rate, Euro and British Pound Value in Dollars, January September 2017 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 Value in Dollars $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $ Pound Euro Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: FRED

8 The New Brexit: Catalonian Secession Catalonia as a Proportion of Spain, 2015 Economy 18.9% Catalonia Rest of Spain Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: Catalonia Government, Google, Wikimedia

9 Pyongyang Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: NASA

10 Top 10 Oil Producing Countries Barrels Per Day Russia Saudi Arabia United States Iraq China Canada Iran UAE Kuwait Brazil 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 Barrels Per Day Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: CIA World Factbook

11 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: MarketWatch photo illustration/bloomberg

12 $12,000 $11,500 U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures 2006Q1-2017Q2, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars 2017Q2: $11.8 trillion, 3.3 percent 7.0% 5.0% Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars $11,000 $10,500 $10, % 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% Percent Change from Preceding Period $9, % $9,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II % Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Personal consumption expenditures Percent change from preceding period Source: BEA

13 18.0% U.S. Unemployment and Underemployment Jan Sep % 14.0% 12.0% Percentage 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Unemployment Underemployment Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 40% Percentage of Homes in Negative Equity 2011Q1-2017Q1 35% 30% Percent of Homes 25% 20% 15% 2017 Q1: MD: 14.6 percent 10% 5% 2017 Q1: USA: 10.4 percent 0% 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 USA Maryland Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Zillow

15 $160 $140 Crude Oil Price per Barrel Jan Sep Maximum gas prices (June 2008): $4.05/gal $120 Price per Barrel $100 $80 $60 Current (Sep 2017) crude oil price: $49.88/barrel $40 $20 Current gas prices (Sept 2017): $2.38/gal $ Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: AAA, Energy Information Administration, RESI

16 $60,000 $58,000 U.S. Real Median Household Income , 2016 Dollars 1999: $58, : $59,039 $56, Dollars $54,000 $52,000 $50,000 $48, Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, U.S. Census

17 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 1948: 96.6% Labor Force Participation Rate of Prime-Age Males/Females vs. the U.S. Population Jan Sep Aug 2017: 88.4% Aug 2017: 75.2% Participation Rate 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 1948: 34.9% 40.0% 30.0% Total U.S. Males Females Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BLS

18 68.0% U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Annual Averages 67.0% 66.0% Participation Rate 65.0% Missing workers, 2017: 5.9 million 64.0% 63.0% 62.0% Actual Rate Pre-recession Rate Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BLS

19 80% Internet Access in the U.S , Percent of Homes with Community Type 70% 60% Percent of Homes 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Suburban Rural Urban Division of Innovation and Applied Research, Towson University Source: Pew Research

20 2017: Retail Apocalypse Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Company Websites

21 25.00% All Retail Sales vs Electronic and Mail-Order Sales Percent Change from Previous Year, % Percent Change from Previous Year 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % All Retail Trade Sales Electronic and Mail Order Sales Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: US Census Bureau

22 5.00% US vs MD Retail Establishments Percent Change from Previous Year 4.00% 3.00% Percent Change From Previous Year 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% -3.00% -4.00% US MD Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BLS

23 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: NBBJ/Sean Airhart

24 $3,000 U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment 2006Q1-2017Q2, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars 2017Q2: $2.9 trillion; 3.9 percent 40.0% $2, % $2, % Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars $2,400 $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1, % 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Percent Change from Preceding Period $1, % $1, % $1,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II % Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Gross private domestic investment Percent change from preceding period Source: BEA

25 $150 Change in U.S. Real Private Inventories 2006Q1-2017Q2, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars $ Q2: $5.5 billion $50 Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars $0 -$50 -$100 -$150 -$200 -$ Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: FRED

26 $1,200 Amazon Stock Adjusted Closing Prices vs. S&P 500 May 1997-September 2017, 2017 Dollars $3,000 $1,000 $2,500 Amazon Adjusted Closing Price $800 $600 $400 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 S&P 500 Adjusted Closing Price $200 $500 $ $0 Amazon S&P 500 Division of Innovation and Applied Research, Towson University Sources: BLS, Yahoo Finance

27 $305,000 $285,000 Manufacturers' New Orders of Durable Goods, Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Dollars, Jan Aug % increase from June to July 2014 attributed to surge in civilian aircraft purchases Value of Durable Good Orders (In Millions) $265,000 $245,000 $225,000 $205,000 $185,000 $165,000 $145,000 $125, Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: FRED, The Wall Street Journal

28 U.S. Privately-Owned Housing Starts Seasonally Adjusted, Units in Thousands, Jan Aug ,500 2,000 Number of Housing Starts, in thousands 1,500 1, Current (August 2017) level Year Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: FRED, U.S. Census Bureau

29 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

30 $3,150 U.S. Government Spending 2006Q1-2017Q2, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars 10.0% $3, % Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars $3,050 $3,000 $2,950 $2,900 $2,850 $2, Q2: $2.9 trillion, -0.6 percent 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Percent change from preceding period $2, % $2, % $2,650 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II % Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Percent change from preceding period Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BEA

31 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Amazon Investor Relations

32 $0 U.S. Net Exports 2006Q1-2017Q2, Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 30.0% Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars -$100 -$200 -$300 -$400 -$500 -$600 -$700 -$ Q2: -$614 billion 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% Percent Change from Preceding Period in Exports or Imports -$ % Net exports of goods and services Percent change from preceding period in Exports Percent change from preceding period in Imports Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BEA

33 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: WBAL

34 $340,000 Maryland Real Gross State Product Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars, 2006Q1-2017Q1 2017Q1: $338 billion, 0.5 percent 2.0% $330, % Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars $320,000 $310,000 $300,000 $290, % 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Percent Change from Preceding Period $280, % $270,000 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I % MD RGSP Percent Change from Preceding Period Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BEA

35 U.S. vs MD Unemployment Jan Aug % 10.0% 8.0% Percentage 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Year US Unemployment MD Unemployment Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BLS, FRED

36 12.0% Unemployment Rate for Counties in Central Maryland Annual Average, % 8.0% Unemployment Rate 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Anne Arundel Baltimore County Baltimore City Harford Howard Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BLS

37 $45,000 Government Spending in Maryland: State Budget Expenditures FY2005-FY2018, Millions of 2017 Dollars $43,000 $41,000 Millions of 2017 Dollars $39,000 $37,000 $35,000 $33,000 $31,000 $29,000 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 Revenues Expenditures Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Sources: MD Department of Budget and Management, BLS, RESI

38 Current Maryland Employment by Sector In thousands, August 2017 Government Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Mining, Logging, and Construction Financial Activities Other Services Finance and Insurance Transportation and Utilities Educational Services Wholesale Trade Durable Goods Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Non-Durable Goods Management of Companies and Enterprises Thousands of Jobs Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: BLS

39 Current Job Openings by Occupation Group Maryland, September 2017 Computer and Mathematical Occupations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations Management Occupations Office and Administrative Support Sales and Related Occupations Architecture and Engineering Business and Financial Operations Food Preparation and Serving Transportation and Material Moving Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Healthcare Support Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Education, Training, and Library Production Occupations Protective Service Personal Care and Service Life, Physical, and Social Science Construction and Extraction Community and Social Services Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Legal Occupations Military Farming, Fishing, and Forestry ,712 3,245 2,972 2,874 2,822 2,128 1,855 1,610 1,594 1,555 1,481 5,435 5,265 7,690 7,060 9,578 11,622 13,544 18, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Job Openings Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange 20,061

40 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research

41 3.0% Forecasted Private Nonfarm Employment Maryland, ,300, % 3,200,000 3,100,000 Percent Change 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 Private Nonfarm Employment 2,700, % 2,600, % ,500,000 Private Nonfarm Employment Percent Change Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: REMI PI+, RESI

42 Forecasted Total New Job Openings in Maryland by Region Annual Average, , ,124 74,175 14,059 8,703 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

43 Forecasted Employment Growth by Sector Annual Average, Maryland Health Care and Social Assistance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Construction Other Services, except Public Administration Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Waste Management Services Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Educational Services; Private Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises Finance and Insurance Forestry, Fishing, and Related Activities Mining Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Information Utilities Manufacturing Government -3, ,070 2,144 1,857 1,741 1,256 1, ,013 9,574-6,000-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Average Annual Change in Number of Jobs Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

44 Forecasted Employment Growth in Maryland by Region Healthcare Industry, Average Annual Growth, % 1.9% 2.3% 2.0% 2.2% Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

45 Forecasted Employment Growth By Occupation Group Annual Average, Maryland Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Personal Care and Service Computer and Mathematical Food Preparation and Serving Related Construction and Extraction Business and Financial Operations Sales and Related Management Education, Training, and Library Transportation and Material Moving Community and Social Service Architecture and Engineering Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Legal Life, Physical, and Social Science Office and Administrative Support Protective Service Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Production ,275 2,238 2,013 1,782 1,541 1,489 1,275 1,163 1,122 3, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Average Annual Change in Number of Jobs Source: RESI

46 Forecasted Employment Growth in Maryland by Region Computer and Mathematical Occupations, Average Annual Growth, % 1.5% 1.9% 1.1% 1.5% Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

47 Top 10 Occupations by Job Openings, Job Zone Annual Average, Maryland Management Analysts 974 Lawyers 597 Instructional Coordinators 473 Medical and Health Services Managers 431 Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 425 Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors 349 Pharmacists 346 Health Diagnosing and Treating Practitioners, All Other 332 Physical Therapists 228 Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School ,000 Job Openings Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

48 Bottom 10 Occupations by Job Openings, Job Zone Annual Average, Maryland Mathematicians 4 Orthotists and Prosthetists 4 Soil and Plant Scientists 4 Materials Scientists 4 Political Scientists 4 Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators 4 Home Economics Teachers, Postsecondary 4 Historians 3 Animal Scientists 2 Sociologists Job Openings Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

49 Top 10 Occupations by Job Openings, Job Zone Annual Average, Maryland General and Operations Managers 1,887 Accountants and Auditors 1,721 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 1,467 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 1,227 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 1,053 Recreation Workers 886 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 784 Social and Human Service Assistants 591 Computer Systems Analysts 564 Human Resources Specialists ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 Job Openings Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

50 Bottom 10 Occupations by Job Openings, Job Zone Annual Average, Maryland Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes 12 Marine Engineers and Naval Architects 12 Actuaries 11 Buyers and Purchasing Agents, Farm Products 9 Fish and Game Wardens 6 Food Scientists and Technologists 6 Emergency Management Directors 5 Foresters 2 Hydrologists 2 Geological and Petroleum Technicians Job Openings Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

51 Top 10 Occupations by Job Openings, Job Zone Annual Average, Maryland Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 4,882 Registered Nurses 3,112 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 2,869 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 2,401 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 1,886 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1,784 Teacher Assistants 1,424 Medical Assistants 1,346 Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors 1,054 Business Operations Specialists, All Other ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Job Openings Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

52 Bottom 10 Occupations by Job Openings, Job Zone Annual Average, Maryland Camera and Photographic Equipment Repairers 8 Occupational Health and Safety Technicians 7 Forest and Conservation Technicians 6 Electronic Home Entertainment Equipment Installers and Repairers 6 Motorcycle Mechanics 6 Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers 5 Power Distributors and Dispatchers 4 Hearing Aid Specialists 4 Boilermakers 4 Electronic Equipment Installers and Repairers, Motor Vehicles Job Openings Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: RESI

53 THANK YOU Learn More About RESI s Projects and Services TUinnovates.com Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research