CEMA Business Barometer. Public excerpt November 2018

Transcription

1 CEMA Business Barometer Public excerpt November 2018

2 What is the CEMA Business Barometer? A monthly survey within the European agricultural machinery industry (started in 2008) Coverage of all major sectors from tractors to municipal equipment Target group: 140 senior managers from 9 (CEMA) countries Implementation: online survey Questionnaire available in five languages Executed by VDMA for CEMA Subjects of the survey: current and future business situation situation of order intake development of turnover turnover expectation per country production plans employment plans special topics, e.g. delivery times Deadlines: starting ca. 5th each month, closure: ca. 13th 14 November 2018 Page 2 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

3 Business climate keeps deteriorating from high level Executive summary of the survey in November The business climate index of the agricultural machinery industry in Europe has continued to decline as a consequence of a more cautious outlook. While the evaluation of the current business is continuing on high level, the industry is becoming increasingly uncertain with regard to the future. The volume of new orders received to date corresponds to a production period of 2,9 months, which is still the same high level as one year ago. However, only a minority of 23% expects the order intake to further increase. For the last month of October, the industry reports a further turnover increase from the European market. At the same time, the share of companies with a decline of incoming orders from Europe also increased. Within Europe, France has been repeatedly confirmed as the market with the greatest prospects. Poland, on the other hand, has continued to lose confidence. Together with the Netherlands, the Scandinavian and the CIS countries, it belongs now to the markets for which a majority of survey participants expect turnover decreases. 14 November 2018 Page 3 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

4 Business Climate Index Development CEMA Business Climate Index (CBI) -Total CBI Present Situation Future Expectation CBI = geometric mean of 1) evaluation of the current business situation and 2) turnover expectation; Index scale from -100 to +100; positive index for 1) = majority of respondents evaluates the current situation as favourable and vice versa; positive index for 2) = majority of respondents expects for the next six months an increasing turnover and vice versa (respectively compared to the previous year s level) Source: CEMA Business Barometer 14 November 2018 Page 4 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

5 Business Climate Illustration of Business Cycle Balance Upswing Growth Expectation for the coming 6 months November Recession Downswing Evaluation of current business Balance Source: CEMA Business Barometer, each value as an average of the last two months 14 November 2018 Page 5 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

6 Business Climate Current Evaluation and Expectations Question: We consider our current business to be. Question: We expect our overall turnover within the next 6 months to % 80% 11% 13% 12% very unfavourable 14% 17% 20% decrease unfavourable 60% 48% 44% 46% satisfying 43% 45% 46% remain unchanged 40% good 20% 35% 37% 37% very good 42% 38% 33% grow 0% 5% 6% 4% Source: CEMA Business Barometer 14 November 2018 Page 6 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

7 Employment Question: Our plans regarding the workforce Regular employees Temporary employees reduce 4% increase 14% reduce 15% increase 10% keep unchanged 82% keep unchanged 75% Source: CEMA Business Barometer November November 2018 Page 7 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org