CEMA Business Barometer. Public excerpt October 2016

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "CEMA Business Barometer. Public excerpt October 2016"

Alban Harrington
5 years ago
Views:

1 CEMA Business Barometer Public excerpt October 2016

2 What is the CEMA Business Barometer? A monthly survey within the European agricultural machinery industry (started in 2008) Coverage of all major sectors from tractors to municipal equipment Target group: 140 senior managers from 9 (CEMA) countries Implementation: online survey Questionnaire available in five languages Executed by VDMA for CEMA Subjects of the survey: current and future business situation situation of order intake development of turnover turnover expectation per country production plans employment plans special topics, e.g. delivery times Deadlines: starting ca. 5th each month, closure: ca. 13th XX 13 October Month 200X 2016 Page 2 Presentation Contact: title Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

3 Business climate remains in the deep negative Executive summary of the survey in October The general business climate index remains nearly unchanged in the deep negative. The ongoing recession is increasingly gnawing at the capacity of the companies. The impact on the workforce is stronger than ever before. In the meanwhile, 58% of the survey participants report that their company is planning to reduce its temporary staff. A wide majority expects turnover decreases from most European markets. The expectations for outside Europe are similarly poor. The downward trend in France has further solidified. The deteriorated expectations have been heavily confirmed by the French companies: 53% state their last month s order intake on the domestic market to be more than 20% below the level of last year. After a long period of the so called Loi Macron, the general investment need seems to be exhausted (see last survey). In addition, comes now a strong decline in the wheat harvest, and lower prices for winegrowers and cattle breeders. Astonishing is the extremely strong improvement in the expectations for the CIS countries. This might especially hold for the Ukraine and only be seen by companies that are not affected by import restrictions to Russia. Also remarkable is the further recovery of the UK, which is mainly a result of the enthusiastic expectations of companies that are producing locally in the country their expectations for the next six months (57% turnover to grow, 43% order intake to grow) are even better than the expectations of companies located in Spain. As foreseeable, the depreciation of the pound is having a positive effect on the export of agricultural goods and thus agricultural income. The impact on the import of machines is of course less attractive. 13 October 2016 Page 3 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

4 Business Climate Index Development CEMA Business Climate Index (CBI) CBI Present Situation Future Expectation Source: CEMA Business Barometer Index = sum of 1) evaluation of the current business situation and 2) turnover expectation, scale from -100 to October 2016 Page 4 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

5 Expectation for the coming 6 months Business Climate Illustration of Business Cycle Balance Upswing 2009 Boom Oct 2016 October Recession Downswing Evaluation of current business Balance 13 October 2016 Page 5 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

6 Business Climate Current Evaluation and Expectations Question: We consider our current business to be. Question: We expect our overall turnover within the next 6 months to % 80% 60% 10% 47% 14% 16% 48% 49% very unfavourable unfavourable 51% 48% 49% decrease satisfying remain unchanged 40% 20% 34% 29% 24% good 38% 34% 33% grow 0% 9% 7% 11% very good 11% 18% 18% Source: CEMA Business Barometer 13 October 2016 Page 6 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

7 Employment Question: Our plans regarding the workforce Regular employees Temporary employees reduce 24% increase 6% increase 4% reduce 58% keep unchanged 38% keep unchanged 70% Source: CEMA Business Barometer October October 2016 Page 7 Contact: Philip.Nonnenmacher@vdma.org

CEMA Business Barometer. Public excerpt November 2018

CEMA Business Barometer. Public excerpt November 2018 CEMA Business Barometer Public excerpt November 2018 What is the CEMA Business Barometer? A monthly survey within the European agricultural machinery industry (started in 2008) Coverage of all major sectors