Peru Outlook Third quarter July 2017
|
|
- Godwin Fisher
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Peru Outlook Third quarter 2017 July 2017
2 Summary 1 We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending 2 Fiscal policy: the institutional framework for reconstruction increases the probability that the fiscal boost will take place in Financial markets: low risk premiums for domestic assets. We expect a degree of correction going forward 4 Inflation will continue to fall over the coming months, and could hit the floor of the target range in the first quarter of Monetary policy: a favourable backdrop for the Central Bank to implement a more aggressive stimulus 6 Risks: (i) abroad, related to slower growth in China; and (ii) domestically, delays in reconstruction and infrastructure projects 2
3 Peru Economic Outlook 3Q 2017 Contents 1. Economic activity 2. Financial markets 3. Inflation 4. Monetary policy 5. Risks
4 Peru Economic Outlook 3Q Economic activity
5 Economic activity remained weak in the second quarter GDP (% YoY change) Hangover from "El Niño Costero" Delays in infrastructure projects Weak public investment Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17* Increased political noise *Estimated Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 5
6 Economic activity remained weak in the second quarter: i) after-effects of El Niño Costero weather phenomenon Trade and Services (% YoY change) Construction (% YoY change) 6.0 Services Commerce Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17* -9.2 Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17* *Estimated Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research *Estimated Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 6
7 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Peru Economic Outlook 3Q 2017 Economic activity remained weak in the second quarter: ii) delays in infrastructure projects Lima Metro line 2 (million Peruvian soles) S/ S/ % of 2017 budget (S/. 2000) Delays in approval of engineering studies Monthly average: Monthly 102 average: Delays in compulsory land purchases Source: MEF SIAF. 7
8 Economic activity remained weak in the second quarter: iii) weak public investment Public investment* (% YoY change) Total: -8% - National Gov: 13% - Regional Gov: -10% - Local Gov: -3% Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Investment spending has not taken off... l due to slow execution of infrastructure projectsl *General Government Source: MEF - SIAF. 8
9 Economic activity remained weak in the second quarter: iv) increased political noise Peru: political tension index* (average for last 10 days) The persistent political noise throughout the year is one of the factors behind confidence indicators remaining low The Odebrecht case Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 * Up to 22 June 2017 Source: BBVA Research 9
10 ...which has impacted confidence indicators Business confidence (points) Private investment (YoY % change) Optimistic Pessimistic Q1-15 Q4-15 Q3-16 Q2-17* Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Q4-16 Q2-17* Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research *Estimated Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 10
11 ...which has impacted confidence indicators Consumer confidence (points) Private consumption (YoY % change) Optimistic Pessimistic Q1-15 Q4-15 Q3-16 Q2-17* 0 Q1-13 Q4-13 Q3-14 Q2-15 Q1-16 Q4-16 Q2-17* Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research *Estimated Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 11
12 Against this backdrop, the labour market shows no sign of improvement New jobs* (thousands of jobs) 160 Underemployment rate* (% of economically active population in work) 37% % % 80 34% % 20 0 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 32% Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 % YoY change Dec.14 Dec.15 Dec.16 May.17 Busy EAP - Lima* Peru Employment - Urban** * Greater Lima area. This figure is the difference in the economically active population in work between two similar months in two consecutive years Source: INEI *Greater Lima area. ** Formal employment Source: INEI and MTPE 12
13 Going forward, our baseline scenario considers On the external side Growth in global activity will consolidate at over 3% in 2017 and Natural and cultural The resources FED will continue normalising monetary conditions in an orderly fashion, as announced. The terms of trade will recover in 2017, but will correct downwards in 2018, remaining stable going forward On the domestic side Confidence indices will remain mostly unchanged. The Natural institutional and design of the cultural Reconstruction resources Authority increases the probability that the spending will take place. Fiscal consolidation will be more gradual than announced by the Government. Improvements in execution of infrastructure projects from Work for the Pan-American Games will also have a positive impact. 1 13
14 On the external front: (i) global growth will consolidate at over 3% USA EUROZONE CHINA Growth forecasts for China and the Eurozone have been revised upwards LATIN AMERICA Compared to three months ago Up WORLD Unchanged Down Source: BBVA Research. Latin America comprises: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela 14
15 On the external front: (ii) The FED continues to adjust its monetary policy FED interest rate (%) Projection FED: monetary base (US$ trillion) Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-12 Dec-14 Dec-16 Dec Source: Bloomberg and BBVA Research Source: Bloomberg 15
16 On the external front: (iii) terms of trade will recover in 2017, but correct downwards in 2018 Terms of trade (2007 = 100) Price of copper (US$/Lb.) 110 Projection 3.77 Projection Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research Source: Bloomberg and BBVA Research 16
17 On the domestic front: (i) business confidence will remain at current levels Business confidence and private investment (points and % YoY change) Private investment Business Confidence (t-2) Private Investment (right axis) Optimistic Year % YoY change Pessimistic Q1-10 Q4-11 Q3-13 Q2-15 Q1-17 Q Source: Apoyo Consultoría and BBVA Research 17
18 On the domestic front: (ii) The institutional design of the Reconstruction Authority increases the probability that the spending will take place Institutional design Fast track mechanisms Executive president with the rank of a minister. Simplified tendering Foreign suppliers Simple governance. Structure defined by the allocation of resources. Fast track mechanisms. Administration facilities 1 Agreements with international bodies 1. All necessary administrative procedures for implementation of the Comprehensive Plan will be free of charge and completed in a maximum of 7 working days, being considered approved in the event of "administrative silence". 2. People living in high risk zones that cannot be mitigated must surrender their properties to access the benefits under the Plan. Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru Works for taxes High risk zones 2 18
19 On the domestic front: (iii) fiscal consolidation will be more gradual than announced by the government Fiscal result (% of GDP) Gross public debt (% of GDP) BBVA MEF Projection 60 Projection Maximum Limit Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 19
20 On the domestic front: iv) improvements in execution of infrastructure projects from Infrastructure projects: contribution to GDP growth* (percentage points) Line 2 Line 2 Gas Pipeline 1.2 The contribution of projects to economic growth will be boosted by the start of the gas pipeline in *Lima Metro line 2, Majes Siguas, Chavimochic, the Talara refinery and expansion of the Jorge Chávez airport, the gas pipeline and Chinchero Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 20
21 In this context, we forecast that GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2017 and 3.9% in 2018 GDP (% YoY change) Reconstruction Infrastructure Gas pipeline In line with potential GDP Avg. Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 21
22 Peru: GDP growth by sector GDP by sector (% YoY change) Agriculture Fishing Mining and fuel Metals Fuel Manufacturing Based on raw materials Non-primary Electricity and water Construction Commerce Other services Global GDP Primary sectors Non-primary sectors Due A catch to the of 4.3 re-opening million metric of oil pipeline tons is projected in the North for the of Peru year Progress on infrastructure projects (Line 2) and reconstruction works Source: BBVA Research 22
23 Peru: GDP growth from expenditure side GDP from expenditure point of view (% YoY change) Domestic Demand a. Private Consumption b. Public Consumption c. Gross Domestic Investment Gross Fixed Investment Private Public Public spending up due to reconstruction, taking fiscal deficit to Progress with 2.9% of GDP infrastructure projects (Line 2) and reconstruction works 2. Exports GDP Imports % YoY change Private Expenditures without Inventories Public Expenditures Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 23
24 Growth could accelerate if large projects currently in the pipeline are awarded rapidly and work starts quickly Mining USD million Quellaveco (USD ) Reconstructio n. Rebound following Niño Costero Transport USD 8500 million Line 3 (USD 5600)* Mina Justa (USD 1500) Toromocho expansion (USD 1300) Pukaqaqa (USD 480) Magistral (USD 300) Outer ring road (USD 2050)* Longitudinal de la Sierra highway stretch 4* (USD 460) Huancayo Huancavelica railway* (USD 200) Salaverry port terminal* (USD 220) *To be put out to tender. Source: Apoyo Consultoría and Proinversión. 24
25 Peru Economic Outlook 3Q Financial markets
26 Risk premiums remain low, with increasing appetite for local financial assets Peru: 5 year CDS (basis points) Non-residents holdings of Sovereign Bonds (billion) 35 Total balance: 73 billion Non-residents' holdings: 43% Total balance: 52 billion Non-residents' holdings: 34% Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 0 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Source: Bloomberg Source: MEF 26
27 We expect a correction going forwards Peru: Sovereign bond yield curve (%) Peru: Sovereign bond yield 2023 (%) Dec-16 Var. Now vs. (in bps) : 31-Mar-17 Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Dec Average? December 31, 2017 March 31, 2016 July 7, Dec-12 Sep-13 Jun-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Sep-16 Jun-17 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 27
28 Exchange rate: we forecast a gradual depreciation of the local currency Exchange rate (PEN/USD) Depreciation of the PEN due to reduction in the spread of rates (FED monetary adjustment while additional cuts in Peru's policy rate) Projection The increase in the exchange rate will be softened by the trade balance: exports will continue to grow over the rest of the year Dec-11 Feb-13 Apr-14 Jun-15 Aug-16 Oct-17 Dec-18 Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 28
29 Peru Economic Outlook 3Q Inflation
30 Inflation has returned to the target range: prices for various foodstuffs affected by El Niño Costero have normalised Prices of foodstuffs affected by El Niño Costero* (% YoY change) Inflation expectations (% YoY change) Upper limit of the target rate, 3% Target Range Feb-15 Sep-15 Apr-16 Nov-16 Jun-17 Food and Energy Total Without food and energy Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 One year ahead Tow years ahead *Includes foodstuffs such as poultry, vegetables, legumes, fruit and sugar. Source: INEI, Central Bank of Peru and BBVA Research Source: INEI, Central Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 30
31 Going forward, lack of inflationary and exchange rate pressures will see inflation moving down and closing the year around 2% Domestic demand* (% YoY change, accumulated, last 4 quarters) 9.3 Projection Inflation (% YoY change in CPI) Fiscal Stimulus Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 *Inventories not included. Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research Source: INEI, Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 31
32 Peru Economic Outlook 3Q Monetary policy rate
33 We expect a more aggressive monetary stimulus, consistent with the macro environment Monetary policy reference rate (%) 7 6 Projection Inflation within the target range, anchored inflation expectations and weakness of demand will lead the Central Bank to cut its policy rate twice more this year (by 25 bp each time), and once more in 1Q Ref erence rate Real interest rate expost Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru and BBVA Research 33
34 Peru Economic Outlook 3Q 2017 Risks
35 Peru: risks to output growth forecasts in 2017/18 External Marked slowdown in China s economy More aggressive adjustment by the FED More delays in construction of major infrastructure projects Domestic Falling confidence Frictions in rapid execution of reconstruction expenditure Source: BBVA Research 35
36 Peru Outlook Third quarter 2017 July 2017
37 Appendix Peru Economic Outlook 3Q 2017
38 Macroeconomic forecasts for 2017 and 2018 Main macroeconomic variables GDP YoY Domestic Demand YoY Inflation (% a/a, fdp) Exchange Rate (vs. USD, fdp) Interest Rate (%, fdp) Private Consumption (% a/a) Public Consumption(% a/a) Gross Fixed Investment (% a/a) Fiscal Outcome (% GDP) Current Account (% GDP) Source: Central Reserve Bank of Peru, INEI (National Statistics and IT Institute), MEF and BBVA Research 38
39 Examples of successful reconstruction experiences Country/year Entity Comments Mexico 1985 (Mexico City earthquake) Renovación Habitacional Popular (RHP) A new agency formed by personnel from ministries with no previous experience of reconstruction. Planning of construction of multi-family homes. Adequately funded, built 48 thousand homes. Colombia 1999 (Armenia earthquake) Fondo para la Reconstrucción Económica y Social del Eje Cafetalero (FOREC) A new entity with functional and regulatory independence. A Directorate comprising central and local government and the private sector. Rapid assessment of damage. Planning of actions to offset risks. Adequate funding. Use of sub-national government capacity for land administration. Decentralised implementation based on NGOs and, to a lesser extent, local government. Iran (Bam earthquake) Steering Committee Work group based on line ministries. Free to establish reconstruction policies, which included redesign of the areas affected and implementation by the national housing body. Source: Central Bank of Peru Inflation report (June 2017). Box 1. Extraordinary reconstruction measures following disasters (page 62). 39
Peru Economic Outlook Second quarter April 2017
Peru Economic Outlook Second quarter 2017 April 2017 Main messages 1. World growth continues apace, accompanied by a certain clarification regarding US policy. Overall, global risk remains a concern. 2.
More informationPeru Economic Outlook First Quarter January 2018
First Quarter 218 January 218 Summary 1 We have revised our economic growth projection for 218 downwards from 3.9% to 3.5%, due to the increased uncertainty associated with the political noise 2 An important
More informationPeru Economic Outlook. 1 st QUARTER 2018 PERU UNIT
Peru Economic Outlook 1 st QUARTER 2018 PERU UNIT Contents 1. Summary 3 2. Global growth reaffirms 5 3. Peru: we have revised our growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 downwards 7 4. Fiscal policy: the major
More informationLatin America Outlook. 2nd QUARTER 2017
Latin America Outlook 2nd QUARTER Latin America Outlook 2Q17 Main messages 1. Global growth keeps increasing, and uncertainty about US policies starts to fade. Nevertheless, global risks remain. 2. The
More informationPeru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru. March 2015
Peru s fundamentals and economic outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2015 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments and prospects 3.
More informationPeru Economic Outlook. 4th QUARTER 2017 PERU UNIT
Peru Economic Outlook 4th QUARTER 2017 PERU UNIT Contents 1. Summary 3 2. The positive global environment is strengthening 5 3. Peru: growth will accelerate in 2018, in line with fiscal stimulus and favourable
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationPeru Economic Outlook
Peru Economic Outlook 1 ST QUARTER 2017 PERU UNIT 01 Our output growth forecast for 2017 has been reduced from 4,1% to 3,5% due to the delay in the execution of infrastructure works 02 Appreciation pressures
More informationLatin America: the shadow of China
Latin America: the shadow of China Juan Ruiz BBVA Research Chief Economist for South America Latin America Outlook Second Quarter Madrid, 13 May Latin America Outlook / May Key messages 1 2 3 4 5 The global
More informationMonetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability
Monetary Policy: A Key Driver for Long Term Macroeconomic Stability Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru March 2016 Agenda 1. Peru s growth is based on strong fundamentals 2. Recent economic developments
More informationPeru: Revised Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework
Peru: Revised Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework 2017-2019 Executive Summary The Revised Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework (Revised MMF) presents the government s official projections, and was approved
More informationPeru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook
Peru s Fundamentals and Economic Outlook Julio Velarde Governor Central Bank of Peru October 2016 Content 1. Slow Global Recovery 5. Gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus 2. Reversal in Peru s external
More informationLatin America Outlook 2Q18
BBVA Research - Latin America Outlook 2Q18 / 1 Latin America Outlook 2Q18 April Key messages Global growth remains robust., although uncertainty is increasing. US fiscal stimulus may underpin progress
More informationPeru Economic Outlook 4Q18
Peru Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 1 Peru Economic Outlook 4Q18 Projections with information at 1 October Key messages Peru Economic Outlook 4Q18 / Growth in activity moderated in the past few months. Mining
More informationSituación España 1T16. 1 st QUARTER. Situación. Españ. Economic Outlook. Latin America
Situación España 1T16 Situación 1 st QUARTER Españ Economic Outlook Latin America Latam outlook / February The global economy will continue to grow. but more slowly and with more risks. Uncertainty about
More informationPERU Preserving Sustained Growth and Macroeconomic Stability. Mr. Alfredo Thorne Minister of Economy and Finance May/June 2017 InPerú
PERU Preserving Sustained Growth and Macroeconomic Stability Mr. Alfredo Thorne Minister of Economy and Finance May/June 017 InPerú Two adverse shocks The recovery path in 017 A Growth Strategy for the
More informationINFLATION REPORT. March Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts
INFLATION REPORT March 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2017 March 2016 International environment Public Monetary
More informationPeru Economic Outlook
Peru Economic Outlook Fourth quarter 2018 Peru Unit Contents 1. Summary 3 2. The global economy: growth is slowing down slightly while risks are intensifying 6 3. Peru: we have maintained our growth forecasts
More informationMexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018
Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco March 2015 Overview International Global growth on the rise. U.S. interest rates will soon follow U.S. economic fundamentals remain solid. Rates are
More informationInstitutional Investor Presentation
Institutional Investor Presentation República Oriental del Uruguay Ministry of Economy and Finance October 218 1 Congress, National Assembly Strong Institutions and Social Cohesion 2 Uruguay remains a
More informationEconomic Perspectives on Peru and the Region. Julio Velarde President Central Bank of Peru. December 6, 2018
Economic Perspectives on Peru and the Region ulio Velarde President Central Bank of Peru December 6, 2018 Since the 90s, Peru s growth rate was higher than the regional and world average. verage GDP growth
More informationEurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for January 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 January 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch January 2018 Eurozone: Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19 Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a broadly stable
More informationColombia Ecomomic Outlook. 3 rd QUARTER 2017 COLOMBIA UNIT
Colombia Ecomomic Outlook 3 rd QUARTER 2017 COLOMBIA UNIT Contents 1. Editorial 3 2. The positive global environment is trending toward stabilisation 4 3. Colombia is continuing to feel the effects of
More informationLATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q2016 OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA. 4th QUARTER 2016
LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q OUTLOOK LATIN AMERICA 4th QUARTER LATIN AMERICA OUTLOOK 4Q Main messages The global economy is heading for a slow recovery. Global GDP growth will improve slightly from the second
More informationInflation Report. July September 2012
July September 1 November 7, 1 1 Outline 1 External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico 3 Monetary Policy and Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks External Conditions The growth rate
More informationGLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH. July 2017
GLOBAL OUTLOOK ECONOMIC WATCH July 2017 Positive global outlook, with projections revised across areas The global outlook remains positive. Our BBVA-GAIN model estimates global GDP growth at 1% QoQ in,
More informationMacro Research Economic outlook
Macro Research Economic outlook Macroeconomic Research Itaú Unibanco April 2017 Roadmap Global Economy The global outlook remains favorable Global growth positive momentum continues, with a synchronized
More informationEarnings Conference Call First Quarter 2018
Earnings Conference Call First Quarter 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
More informationEconomic Outlook. Macro Research Itaú Unibanco
Economic Outlook Macro Research Itaú Unibanco June, 2013 Agenda Economia Global Heterogeneous growth: U.S. growing faster, Europe in recession. Deceleration in the emerging economies. The Fed signals a
More information3. Peru: we have revised our growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 downwards
3. Peru: we have revised our growth forecasts for 218 and 219 downwards During the third quarter of 217 the economy continued to show signs of improvement, favoured by a recovery in domestic demand and
More informationEarnings Conference Call Third Quarter 2018
Earnings Conference Call Third Quarter 2018 In the News External Environment: changes compared to the last Conference Call Tailwinds Robust formal labor market: Hard data (payrolls, social security contributions)
More informationConvención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013
Citi Equity Capital Markets October 29, 2013 Convención de Finanzas y Mercado de Capitales 2013 1 1. Global Markets 2 Price Performance (%) GDP Growth (%) Global Environment at Inflection Point Developed
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY December 2018
4% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND December 1 2 Consumer prices (1) At the end of 1, inflation is expected to be close to 4%, which corresponds to the Bank of Russia s target 2 Inflation indicators, % YoY
More informationPeru: Capital Market and Infrastructure Themes
Latin America Capital Markets Origination August, 214 Peru: Capital Market and Infrastructure Themes John Greenwood Peru Market Themes Macroeconomic Stability and Growth 1 2 Macro Fundamentals Micro Fundamentals
More informationChina Economic Outlook 2013
China Economic Outlook 2 Key Developments in Brief - Mild recovery of GDP growth: +8 8.5% - Construction and consumption as main drivers - Inflationary pressure to increase: +3% - Tight labor market and
More informationCHINA S RESPONSES TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
CHINA S RESPONSES TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS Yiping Huang Seminar at the Crawford School of Economics and Government, ANU, March 1, 29 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS Three unique factors contributed to the current
More informationMexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy
Mexico s Macroeconomic Outlook and Monetary Policy Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Washington, DC, 13 October 2017 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.15 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy rebounded in the second quarter of 2007, growing at an annual rate of 3.4% Q/Q (+1.8% Y/Y), according to the GDP advance estimates
More informationLatin American Economic Outlook 4Q18
BBVA Research - Latin American Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 1 Latin American Economic Outlook 4Q18 October Summary (I) The global environment remains positive, although growth is moderating in emerging economies
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2014
April June August 1, 1 Outline 1 Monetary Policy External Conditions 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks Monetary Policy Conduction Monetary policy has focused
More informationQuarterly Report. October December 2014
October December February 18, 2015 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 4 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 Recent Evolution of Inflation
More informationAn Uneven Recovery. Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department
International Monetary Fund November 1, 2018 An Uneven Recovery Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean A Presentation by Western Hemisphere Department I. Key Messages II. Global Crosscurrents III.
More information1. Macroeconomic Highlights
1. Macroeconomic Highlights ht Macroeconomic Highlights Resilient growth over the last 2 years, despite the global economic slowdown Banking industry robust with high level of CAR and low NPLN. In 2008
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationEurope Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
More informationLatin America Outlook 3Q18
BBVA Research - Latin America Outlook 3Q18 / 1 Latin America Outlook 3Q18 July Key messages Global growth remains robust, but risks also increase. Robust growth in the US on the back of fiscal stimulus.
More informationMexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook?
Mexican Q1 economic data: a reality shock, or there is still a brighter outlook? Rafael Amiel, Director Latin America Economics IHS Global Insight Julio 2013 Mexico becomes fashionable again Mexico Makes
More informationMexico: Dealing with international financial uncertainty. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2015 Contents 1 Moderate economic growth 2 Waiting for the liftoff 3 Taming inflation 2 Since 2014, Mexico s economic recovery
More informationThe Argentine economy in the new political and international environment. MIGUEL A. KIGUEL econviews
The Argentine economy in the new political and international environment MIGUEL A. KIGUEL econviews October 2009 1 Outline The international environment is helping Argentina once again The domestic financial
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY February 2019
% RUSSIA S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND February 19 Consumer prices In January 19, annual inflation held at the lower bound of the Bank of Russia expectations (.% YoY). Faster growth of food prices to.% (vs.7%
More informationMonthly Rolling Economic Electronic Presentation August 2017
CHILE AT A GLANCE Monthly Rolling Economic Electronic Presentation August 2017 CURRENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE GDP GROWTH (% over same quarter previous year) 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 QIV 2014 QI 2015 QII 2015
More informationQuarterly Report. April June 2015
April June August 12, 1 1 Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks April-June 2 Monetary Policy Conduction in
More informationGlobal Economic Watch
BBVA Research Global Economic Watch July 2018 / 1 Global Economic Watch July 2018 Steady global growth, but risks intensify Our BBVA-GAIN model projects that global growth could remain slightly above 1%
More informationQuarterly Report. July September 2014
July September November 19, Outline 1 2 Monetary Policy External Conditions 3 4 5 Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks 2 Monetary Policy Conduction By constitutional
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY Bank of Russia September 218 2 Annual inflation is returning to 4% faster than expected. Acceleration of food prices drove CPI to +3.1% YoY in August Contributions
More informationIndonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist
Indonesia Economic Quarterly Launch Jakarta, March 18, 214 Jim Brumby Sector Manager and Lead Economist MARCH 214 IEQ: INVESTMENT IN FLUX Fixed investment: subdued, and risks Risks to fiscal space needed
More information2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW
2017 FIRST QUARTER ECONOMIC REVIEW MAY 2017 0 P a g e Overview The performance of the economy in the first quarter of 2017 was on a positive trajectory with annual growth projected to be about 3.9 % from
More informationZambia s Economic Outlook
Zambia s Economic Outlook F R A N C I S C H I P I M O D I R E C T O R E C O N O M I C S B A N K O F Z A M B I A Z A M B I A I N V E S T M E N T C O N F E R E N C E N O V E M B E R 4, 2 0 1 5 L O N D O
More informationMonetary Policy under Fed Normalization and Other Challenges
Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* Santander Latin America Day London, June 28 th, 2018 */ The opinions and views expressed in this document are the sole responsibility of the author
More informationRUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES. Bank of Russia.
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES Bank of Russia July 218 < -1% -1-9% -9-8% -8-7% -7-6% -6-5% -5-4% -4-3% -3-2% -2-1% -1 % 1% 1 2% 2 3% 3 4% 4 5% 5 6% 6 7% 7 8% 8 9% 9 1% 1 11% 11
More informationINFLATION REPORT December 2013 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts
INFLATION REPORT December 2013 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2013-2015 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2013-2015 December 2013 International
More informationOlivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
More informationRecent Economic Developments
REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA Recent Economic Developments January, 2010 Published by Investors Relations Unit Republic of Indonesia Address Bank Indonesia International Directorate Investor Relations Unit Sjafruddin
More informationPERU. 1. General trends
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2015 1 PERU 1. General trends Peru s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.4% in 2014, compared with 5.8% in 2013. This slowdown was due mainly to the
More informationExternal Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good?
External Factors, Macro Policies and Growth in LAC: Is Performance that Good? Alejandro Izquierdo IADB Emerging Powers in Global Governance Conference Paris, July 6, 2007 (based on work with Ernesto Talvi)
More informationPeru Outlook Fourth quarter October 2017
Peru Outlook Fourth quarter 17 October 17 Peru Outlook 4Q 17 Summary 1 The economic outlook is improving in the second half of the year. The Peruvian economy will grow at around.5% YoY in the second half
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationPERU. 1. General trends
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2018 1 PERU 1. General trends In 2017, the growth rate of the Peruvian economy slowed to 2.5% from the previous year s 4.0%, as consumption cooled, export
More informationMonetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis: The Case of Colombia Hernando Vargas Banco de la República Colombia March, 2009 Contents I. The state of the Colombian economy
More informationMexico s monetary policy and economic outlook. Manuel Sánchez
Manuel Sánchez United States Mexico Chamber of Commerce, Los Angeles, CA, November 15, 2013 Monetary policy and economic outlook themes Output slowdown and signs of an incipient rebound More stringent
More informationMANAGEMENT S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
MANAGEMENT S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS The following discussion contains an analysis of our financial condition and results of operations for the nine months
More informationSPAIN Economic Outlook with view on the real estate sector
SPAIN Economic Outlook with view on the real estate sector GRI 2017 JORGE SICILIA, CHIEF ECONOMIST BBVA GROUP Main messages The world economy continues to improve, albeit within an environment in which
More informationQuarterly Report April June 2017 August 30th, 2017
Quarterly Report April June August th, Outline 1 Monetary Policy and Inflation External Conditions Evolution of the Mexican Economy Forecasts and Final Remarks Quarterly Report April - June 1 Conduction
More informationBTMU Focus Latin America Colombia: macroeconomic performance Mexico: (1Q 2015)
BTMU Focus Latin America Colombia: macroeconomic performance Mexico: (1Q 1) MUFG UNION BANK Economic Research (New York) Hongrui Zhang Latin America Economist hozhang@us.mufg.jp +1(1)7-7 July 7, 1 Contents
More informationOrlando J. Ferreres & Associates A R G E N T I N A. Economic Situation and Perspectives. Comité Mixto Empresarios Argentino-Japonés
Orlando J. Ferreres & Associates A R G E N T I N A Economic Situation and Perspectives Comité Mixto Empresarios Argentino-Japonés Buenos Aires, December 5 th 2014 1 CONTENTS World Economy Argentina: Scenarios
More informationAndean Region Fixed Income Weekly June 1 st 2017
Andean Region Fixed Income Weekly June 1 st 2017 What s inside Colombia... P.2 Market View.... P.2 Colombia s Topic of the Week... P.3 Indicative Prices... P.3 Peru... P.4 Market View.... P.4 Peru s Topic
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationMPC MARKET PERCEPTIONS SURVEY - MARCH
MPC MARKET PERCEPTIONS SURVEY - MARCH 2018 1 CONTENTS BACKGROUND......4 SURVEY METHODOLOGY......4 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SURVEY.........4 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS....5 EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS...6 PRIVATE SECTOR
More informationPERU. 1. General trends
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2017 1 PERU 1. General trends Peru s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.9% in 2016, compared with 3.3% the previous year, primarily on higher production
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. February 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch February 2018 Eurozone: Strong growth continues in 1Q18, but confidence seems to peak GDP growth moderated slightly in, but there was an upward revision to previous quarters. Available
More informationConfronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Coordinators
Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America: What is the Outlook? Policy Trade-offs May for 20, Unprecedented 2009 - Maison Times: Confronting de l Amérique the Global Crisis Latine, America, ParisIADB,
More informationThe President s Report to the Board of Directors
The President s Report to the Board of Directors April 4, 214 Current Economic Developments - April 4, 214 Data released since your last Directors' meeting show the economy was a bit stronger in the fourth
More informationEconomic Outlook January, 2012
Economic Outlook January, 2012 Summary Global economy Low global growth scenario, tail risks have become smaller. Risks (Debt Ceiling, elections in Italy, growth in Europe). Brazil Activity shows signs
More informationО КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY. December Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors
О КЛЮЧЕВОЙ СТАВКЕ RUSSIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND CHALLENGES TO MONETARY POLICY Bank of Russia Presentation for Investors December 16 USD per barrel RUB / USD 2 Oil Eхporters Production-cut Agreements Support
More informationThe Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies
The Outlook for Asian & Australian Economies Asian economies maintain stable growth led by domestic demand although growth pace slows down slightly AKI FUKUCHI, YOKO HAGIWARA ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE TOKYO
More informationEarnings Conference Call Fourth Quarter & Full-year Results 2017
Earnings Conference Call Fourth Quarter & Full-year Results 2017 Sob 2020 Sob 2023 Sob 2024 Sob 2026 Sob 2028 Sob 2031 Sob 2032 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Zinc Copper Gold Macroeconomic
More informationSantander s Economic Report
Inicio Santander s Economic Report Research Second quarter 2016 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK > In US, better prospects for employment and activity, coupled with a rise in inflation, portend an imminent rise
More informationRepublic of Panama Fiscal Performance Third Quarter 2016
Republic of Panama Fiscal Performance Third Quarter 2016 Dulcidio De La Guardia Minister of Economy and Finance Iván Zarak Vice Minister of Economy Eyda Varela de Chinchilla Vice Minister of Finance January
More informationThe Future of Mexican Monetary Policy
The Future of Mexican Monetary Policy Mr. Javier Guzmán Calafell, Deputy Governor, Banco de México* XP Securities Mexico Summit Mexico City, 2 March 2017 */ The views expressed herein are strictly personal.
More informationQuarterly Report. July-September 2015
July-September November 0, 1 1 Outline 1 Monetary Policy External Conditions Economic Activity in Mexico Inflation Determinants Forecasts and Balance of Risks July September Monetary Policy Conduction
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. April 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch April 2018 Eurozone: solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch / 2 Confidence has weakened in 1Q18 since the
More informationINFLAT N REPORT. Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts December 2016 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU
INFLAT N REPORT December 2016 Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2018 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU INFLATION REPORT: Recent trends and macroeconomic forecasts 2016-2018 December 2016 International
More informationWeekly Macroeconomic Review
16/10/2012 Weekly Macroeconomic Review Expectations derived from the capital market Our forecast Inflation in the coming months Inflation through September 2013 CPI (average annual rate) Inflation through
More informationTrade Balance (LHS) Exports (RHS) Imports (RHS)
14,000 RM Million % change y-o-y 50.0 12,000 40.0 10,000 30.0 8,000 20.0 6,000 10.0 4,000 0.0 2,000 (10.0) 0 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16
More informationEarnings Conference Call Fourth Quarter & Full-year 2018
Earnings Conference Call Fourth Quarter & Full-year 2018 In the News External Environment: most relevant topics for 4Q18 and 2018 Tailwinds Headwinds Political Environment 4Q18 Growth expected to situate
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Assuring growth over the medium term Andrew Burns DEC Prospects Group January 213 1 Despite better financial conditions, stronger growth remains elusive More than 4 years after
More informationEconomic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member
Economic Outlook In the Shoes of an FOMC Member This material must be read in conjunction with the disclosure statement. 9 April 2018 PRESENTED BY: MARKUS SCHOMER Chief Economist PineBridge Investments
More informationINVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN
INVESTMENT MARKET UPDATE UBC FACULTY PENSION PLAN MIKE LESLIE, FACULTY PENSION PLAN NEIL WATSON, LEITH WHEELER FEBRUARY 12, 2014 Presenters Mike Leslie Executive Director, Investments Faculty Pension Plan
More information