Budget Forecast to

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Lee Norton
5 years ago
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1 Budget Forecast to February 13, 2012 Second Draft 1

2 Benefits of a Budget Forecast Recognize enrollment trends and the budgetary and facility impact Understand revenue trends including the property tax impact Understand expenditure trends Realize the future impact of current fiscal decisions Explore the outcomes of different data scenarios Steps in the Budget Forecast Use enrollment projections to predict future enrollment scenarios Estimate revenue cap increases based on enrollment scenarios Estimate expenditure increases Analyze the outcomes and plan accordingly Assumptions Made Current school finance system continues (revenue caps) Enrollment projections scenarios are close to actual Salary costs increase at 2%, health/dental at 7% Non-personnel costs do not increase except transportation and utilities 0 FTE added in 12-13, all other years add 1 FTE for every 20 additional students (not applicable) Revenue cap increase is $50/student for , and then $100/student for future years Savings from staff retirements is not included Data is less accurate as years progress The value of this forecast beyond is questionable, considering the volatility of school finance 2

3 Enrollment History Waunakee Community School District Grade EC K K TOTAL ELEM TOTAL INTER TOTAL MIDDLE TOTAL HIGH TOTAL Enrollment History is from the Third Friday in September Count (Residents plus Open Enrollment-In) Enrollment Increase New Students % (adjusted for Sprouts) % % % % (adjusted for 4K) Five year average is 1.62% Enrollment Increase is calculated by removing the 12 th grade students, adding in K students, and adding in 30 students in 7 th grade. The difference between years is the increase in new students. 3

4 Revenue Cap Increase History REVENUE CAP INCREASE 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 2,524,424 2,107,555 1,592,645 1,697, ,000-1,000,000-1,124,848-1,500, Please note that the year included an additional $300,000 due to the 2005 K-8 referendum. 4

5 Revenue Sources Waunakee Community School District 3% 4% 2% 2% 42% 47% Property Taxes State - General State - Categorical Federal Grants Open Enrollment Other Revenue Sources History - % Revenue State General Property Taxes State Categorical Federal Grants Open Enrollment Other TOTAL

6 Expenses Waunakee Community School District 5% 1% 2% 3% 3% 5% 81% Salaries/Benefits Maintenance/Utilities Transportation Building Budgets District Wide Budgets Special Education 4K Program Expense History - % Expense Salaries/ Benefits (% special ed) (% regular ed) 82 (18) (82) 82 (18) (82) 81 (19) (81) 83 (18) (82) 81 (19) (81) Maintenance/ Utilities Transportation Building Budgets District Wide Special Education 4 yr. old K TOTAL

7 Future Debt Service Payments Fund 38 FISCAL YEAR AMOUNT DUE , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TOTAL DUE $1,306, Future Debt Service Payments Fund 39 FISCAL YEAR AMOUNT DUE ,646, ,804, ,952, ,086, ,095, ,086, ,090, ,085, ,090, ,090, ,089, ,110, ,112, ,966, ,306, , , ,369, ,388, (24,259) TOTAL DUE $74,695,779 7

8 Enrollment Numbers No Growth Grade EC K K TOTAL ELEM TOTAL INTER TOTAL MIDDLE TOTAL HIGH TOTAL Assumptions Made 4K classes estimated at 220 K classes estimated at students enroll in 7 th grade from private schools No student growth 8

9 Scenario A: Aggressive Student Growth Planning Grade EC K K TOTAL ELEM TOTAL INTER TOTAL MIDDLE TOTAL HIGH TOTAL NEW NEW TOTAL Assumptions Made 4K classes estimated at 220 K classes estimated at students enroll in 7 th grade from private schools Student growth at 1.6% of grand total 9

10 Scenario B: Moderate Student Growth Planning Grade EC K K TOTAL ELEM TOTAL INTER TOTAL MIDDLE TOTAL HIGH TOTAL NEW NEW TOTAL Assumptions Made 4K classes estimated at 220 K classes estimated at students enroll in 7 th grade from private schools Student growth at 1% of grand total 10

11 Scenario C: Conservative Student Growth Planning Grade EC K K TOTAL ELEM TOTAL INTER TOTAL MIDDLE TOTAL HIGH TOTAL NEW NEW TOTAL Assumptions Made 4K classes estimated at 220 K classes estimated at students enroll in 7 th grade from private schools Student growth at 0% of grand total 11

12 Economic Factors Waunakee Community School District New housing starts were lower in 2010 and 2011 than the recent past Interest rates are still low from historical standards, but loan requirements have increased from the recent past Real estate sales are increasing with a lower average dollar amount The unemployment rate remains historically high Overall economy was in an economic recession between December 2007 and June of 2009 New developments may not begin until economic recovery (2013?) The Dane County Distressed Property Index reaches all-time high in July of 2011 Analysis Scenario A is unlikely Scenario B is optimistic given current economy Scenario C is conservative, but may be the best planning model 12

13 Conservative Student Growth Planning REVENUE CAP PROJECTIONS 700, , , , , , , , , , , REVENUEE CAP PROJECTIONS A revenue cap increas se of $50/student is includedd for 12-13, with an increase off $100/studentt included for future years Revenue cap projections beyond are not reliable at this time 13

14 Conservative Student Growth Planning BUDGET PLANNING PROJECTIONS 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500, , ,454 1,481,155 2,333,806 2,000,000 2,500, The above projections identify the difference between total revenues and expenses according to the Robert Baird financial planning model The above projections assume a 2% increase in salary and a 7% increase in health insurance 14

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5 Year Budget Forecast

5 Year Budget Forecast Ashwaubenon School District February 13, 2017 5-Year Budget Forecast Assumptions Declining resident enrollment trend for 4 years and a slight increase in year 5 (Cohort Survival