The Euro Area Crisis and Ireland. Philip R. Lane! April 6th 2011! Policy Institute!
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1 The Euro Area Crisis and Ireland Philip R. Lane! April 6th 2011! Policy Institute!
2 Outline! Review/Analysis of Irish boom-bust-recovery cycle! European-level developments! Outstanding issues!
3 Relative GDP (Ireland vs Euro16; 1998=100)! Red line is real GDP; Blue line is nominal GDP. Output divergence amplified! by divergence in GDP deflator. Sizeable crash since 2007.!
4 Real Economy Developments!
5 Employment! Hard to overstate scale of employment miracle near doubling of! employment (1990 to 2007); 15 percent decline since then (exit to! unemployment but also emigration, back to school and family duties)!
6 Net Immigration (% population)! Very big surge in immigration in late 1990s/early 2000s [initially, returning! Irish, then Eastern Europeans], cumulative over 10 percent of population.! Partial reversal since onset of crisis.!
7 Investment! Investment stable but then surged 2003 to 2007 to 30% of GDP! (mostly construction). Then massive collapse to 10% of GDP in 2010 (mostly! construction). Note: in addition to housing/offices, also a big surge in public! investment (about 5% of GDP).!
8 TFP! TFP driven by FDI in 1990s; Negative since 2001 with switch to construction! and public sector activities and away from export sector!
9 Shares in Total Employment! Construction on left scale; non-market (public) services on right scale. Figure! Illustrates major shift in economic activity to construction and public sector. Not! shown: impact of construction boom on ancillary sectors (financial services; retail)!
10 CA/GDP! Current account small until 2003, then grew rapidly to Still, peak deficit at 5.5! percent of GDP much smaller than in other periphery countries. Also, has closed! quite rapidly.!
11 Real Exchange Rate! (European Commission RER indices.) Blue line shows that Ireland had! a sizeable cumulative real appreciation against rest of euro area, which has now! slightly reversed. Red line shows much bigger movement, since Ireland trades a lot! with UK and US, so that external value of euro matters a lot.!
12 Financial Sector!
13 Private Credit! Private credit started to grow in mid-1990s but accelerated from 2003.! Construction firms (developers) and households the main sectors.!
14 Banks: Net Foreign Liabilities (% GDP)! From 2003, increased reliance on external funding (inter-bank; bond issuance).! Sudden stop in 2008 (replaced by ECB liquidity).!
15 10-Year Bond Spread! Spread low pre-crisis. Jumped in early 2009 but stable until April 2010.! Subsequent upward spiral.!
16 Fiscal Variables!
17 Debt/GDP! Debt/GDP plummeted during the good years (net debt at 11% of GDP in! 2007). Increase during crisis: partly, collapse in denominator; partly large deficits! and partly bank bailout costs.!
18 Deficit/GDP! Pre-crisis: small surpluses but mostly close to zero, such that not a big! buffer to deal with fiscal impact of the crisis deficit has 20 percent! add on in relation to bank bailout costs.!
19 Government Expenditure and Revenue! Ratios fell in 1990s (rapid GDP growth outpaced public sector) but grew during! 2000s (ie public spending grew more quickly than GDP so very rapid expansion! in public spending indeed). During crash, revenue has declined more quickly than! GDP (revenue over-reliant on construction sector). Expenditure during crisis has bee flat in cash terms but increasing as a ratio to GDP. (2010 spike due to bank bailout! costs.)!
20 The Crisis!
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33 European Developments! Economic governance: crisis avoidance tools! EFSF/ESM: crisis management tools! Ø Role of European Commission! Ø Role of national governments! Ø Role of ECB!
34 Economic Governance! Banking stability! Fiscal stability! Competitiveness : labour markets; retirement; product markets!
35 Banking Stability! Macro-prudential regulations! European-level oversight (ESRB, EBA, etc)! Resolution regimes! Ideal: pan-european banks! Ex-ante burden sharing / common bank fund! New approach to senior bank bonds?!!
36 Fiscal Stability! Na#onal fiscal frameworks: fiscal responsibility law; independent fiscal council Wider no#on of cyclicality - current account imbalances; sectoral imbalances; asset prices Post- crisis debt reduc#on plans Eurobonds? Fiscal transfer union? Common bank fund?
37 Crisis Management! EFSF: ! ESM: 2013 onwards! Ø Underpinned by capital contributions! Ø Restructure debt before bailout! Ø ESM loans senior to private creditors! Ø Impact on current creditors!
38 Terms of Ireland s EFSF loan! Troika plan requires Ireland to re-enter bond market in 2012! Resolution of uncertainty?! State-contingent repayment plan: in line with GDP/GNP performance (level of interest payment; time schedule)! International financial diplomacy! Domestic challenge: implement fiscal austerity plan!
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