Economic state of the union, EuroMemo Engelbert Stockhammer Kingston University
|
|
|
- Chester Greene
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Economic state of the union, EuroMemo 2013 Engelbert Stockhammer Kingston University
2 structure Economic developments Background: export-led growth and debt-led growth Growth, trade imbalances, ages and unemployment House prices, household debt, banks Economic policy More fiscal straightjacket Cyprus Outlook: Europe s divided working class
3 Background: neoliberal growth models
4 Neoliberal growth models & the crisis Rising inequality and fall in wage share stagnation of domestic demand 2 growth models in response: debt-led and export-led growth international imbalances In Europe: debt-led growth supported by EMU and FSAP debt-led Export-led Center US, UK Germany, Austria, Japan Periphery Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain China
5 The build up of the crisis Financial deregulation External internal Temporary relaxtion of BoP constraint Stagnant domestic. demand 2 growth models Neoliberalism Asset + housing price bubble debt-driven consumption Export orientation Polarization of income distribution CA deficit Capital inflows CA surplus Capital outflows
6 Increase in household debt (% of GDP) Increase in HH debt (in % GDP) 2000/08 Germany USA 26 Netherlands 32.8 United Kingdom 28.1 Austria 7.9 Ireland 62.7 Greece 35.5 France 15.8 Spain 33.8 Portugal 27.4 Source: Eurostat, except USA: FoF
7 International imbalances at the outset of the crisis current account (%GDP) 2007 Germany 7,9 United Kingdom -2,7 Austria 3,6 United States -5,2 Netherlands 8,7 Greece -14,5 Japan 4,8 Ireland -5,3 China 5,2 Spain -10 Portugal -9,4 Italy -2,4
8 building up of imbalances (in Europe: German wage suppression + financial bubbles in the South) Crisis Debt-led economies Recession + stagnation due to debt overhang Export-led economies Short sharp recession with strong recovery USA Some counter-cyclical fiscal policy QE (for private sector as well as for public sector) interest rates on govt bonds low stagnation/weak recovery Europe Fiscal straightjacket Hesitant QE: ECB does not play lender of last resort (LOLR) for govts North Weak recovery South Debt deflation Sovereign debt crisis
9 Recent economic developments
10 GDP and NX real gdp NX Country Country European Union (28 countries) -1.3% -0.1% European Union (28 countries) Euro area (12 countries) -2.1% -0.4% Euro area (12 countries) Germany 2.9% 0.4% Germany Ireland -2.9% 1.1% Ireland Greece -23.3% -4.2% Greece Spain -6.4% -1.5% Spain France 0.0% -0.1% France Italy -7.1% -1.3% Italy Czech Republic -2.0% -0.4% Czech Republic Hungary -5.4% 0.2% Hungary Poland 13.6% 1.1% Poland Romania -3.5% 1.6% Romania United Kingdom -0.5% 0.6% United Kingdom
11 The costs of rebalancing Stockhammer & Sotiropoulos (2012) GIIPS had average NX of -8.4% (GDP) in given standard macro relations, what is the output decline required to balance NX? Estimate panel of EU12 countries NX-equation: NX = f(y, ULC) Phillips curve: ULC = f(u, PM) Okun s Law: U = f( Y) Finding: need -23% (recession sample) to -47% (full sample) GDP
12 Public debt budget deficit public debt Country Country Euro area (12 countries) Euro area (12 countries) Germany Germany Ireland Ireland Greece Greece Spain Spain France France Italy Italy Czech Republic Czech Republic Hungary Hungary Poland Poland Romania Romania United Kingdom United Kingdom
13 Sovereign yields remain high for South, but seem to be declining
14 Unemployment and wage unemployment rate real wages Country Country European Union (27 countries) European Union (27 countries) -0.6% 0.3% Euro area (12) Germany Germany 2.9% 0.8% Ireland Ireland -3.5% -1.0% Greece Greece -22.1% -6.2% Spain Spain -6.9% -0.3% France France 2.0% -0.3% Italy Italy -2.4% -0.4% Czech Republic Czech Republic 4.7% -0.4% Hungary Hungary -8.7% -3.1% Poland Poland 2.0% 1.2% Romania Romania -6.8% 1.7% United Kingdom United Kingdom -3.2% 0.6%
15 Housing, credit, banks
16
17 Property prices: Spain (-30%), Germany, Ireland (-50%) 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 Germany Spain 140,0 120,0 100,0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0 0,0 Ireland: property prices (-50% since 2007)
18
19
20 Fragile banks RAC typically 4-12% what does this mean for equity/ total assets? Banks are extremely leveraged That boost profits in boom And losses in crises Deutsche Bank, consolidated group, 2013Q1, bn Assets 2033 RAC 325 Total Shareholder Equity 56 capital ratio (RAC) 17% capital ratio (total assets) 3%
21 QE
22 ECB Monthly Bulletin June 2010, p. 38
23 Europe s Lehmann moment on 6-7 May tensions in the sovereign debt markets of some euro area countries spread to other segments of the financial markets. Volatility in the financial markets increased sharply and liquidity conditions deteriorated significantly not only in sovereign bond markets, but also and to a critical degree in the money markets. Transactions within the interbank market declined rapidly and uncertainty among banks about counterparties creditworthiness increased. (ECB Monthly Bulletin June 2010, 41) heightened concerns about the probability of default of some European financial institutions. Indeed, the probability of a simultaneous default of two or more euro area large and complex banking groups, (...) rose sharply on 7 May, reaching values higher than in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. ECB Monthly Bulletin June 2010, Sovereign debt crisis = (private) banking crisis
24 Gov t debt, money and banks CBs (LOLR) are contested between private (financial) interests and gov ts ECB is reluctantly playing LOLR for private sector... and even more reluctantly for public sector EMU has removed LOLR from nation states Turned what would have been an exchange rate crisis into a sovereign debt crisis (similar to debt in foreign currency ) Crisis has illustrated how closely linked the state and the (national) financial sectors are A sovereign debt crisis is also a crisis of private banking sector Role of gov t bonds in banks balance sheet A banking crisis public debt European neoliberalism wants to strangulate the nation states, but hasn t built a European one.
25 Wrapping up & policy
26 Is the worst over, or is the next crisis around the corner? On the surface it looks like stabilisation, but with divergence across Europe No disaster (yet) Mild recession in North Positive growth in Ireland, no collapse in Spain, growth in Baltics Some countries left to rot (Greece, Cyprus) Financial market pressures have eased Rebalancing is taking place (trade imbalances, house prices; but not household debt) In the South a social roll back: falling wages and high unemployment, attack on welfare state Possible sources of instability Fragile banks Fragile sovereign debt in Spain, Italy High levels of household debt
27 Economic policy 6pack, 2pack, TSCG, Eu Semester: more austerity (for South) & constitutional ESM Banking union: not quite Supervision Rescue fund Cyprus ordo-liberalism (when it s about someone else s money) Bail in and tax on deposits >10k Cyprus had a huge (8.5 x GDP) financial sector
28 Thinking about rebalancing strategies in the Euro area How to deal with cost differentials How to deal with debt Bankruptcy Restructuring / Bail in Bail out Bail out + QE Adjustment in trade deficit countries: deflationary Adjustment in trade surplus countries: Inflationary
29 Europe s divided workers North: export-led growth (stable industry); before crisis: erosion of welfare state + rising inequality; recovery after recession South: debt-led growth: bubble + deindustrialisation; before crisis: consolidation of welfare state; crisis -> depression + attack on welfare state East: dependent catching up (subordination to German production networks) with some debt-led elements (rising household debt from low levels), moderate deindustrialisation with upgrading (productivity and wage growth); crisis: varied experience
30 Policy implications So what does this mean for progressive political strategies in Europe? Recognition: national working classes face different economic circumstances Either unity has to be create politically or develop national progressive strategies Demands to could create political unity ( Proletarians of Europe, unite! ) European system of minimum wages Inflationary adjustment in reaction to debt and to cost imbalances. (High wage growth in surplus countries Wealth taxes
31 appendix
32 Manufacturing as % of value added South (4) North (3) East (8)
33 Social expenditures as % GDP 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 East North South 5,0 0,
34 Wage dispersion in Germany and Spain 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 Germany Spain 0,1 0
OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
The Outlook for the European and the German Economy
The Outlook for the European and the German Economy Annual Economic Forum of the German American Chamber of Commerce Chicago January 26, 2012 Joachim Scheide, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Once
Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia
Irish Economy and Growth Legal Framework for Growth and Jobs High Level Workshop, Sofia Diarmaid Smyth, Central Bank of Ireland 18 June 2015 Agenda 1 Background to Irish economic performance 2 Economic
Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015
Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by
The European Economic Crisis
The European Economic Crisis Patrick Leblond Teaching about the EU in the Classroom Centre for European Studies Carleton University, 25 November 2013 Outline Before the crisis European economic integration
Session 16. Review Session
Session 16. Review Session The long run [Fundamentals] Output, saving, and investment Money and inflation Economic growth Labor markets The short run [Business cycles] What are the causes business cycles?
Open Economy AS/AD: Applications
Open Economy AS/AD: Applications Econ 309 Martin Ellison UBC Agenda and References Trilemma Jones, chapter 20, section 7 Euro crisis Jones, chapter 20, section 8 Global imbalances Jones, chapter 29, section
Recovery in Europe The outcome of successful crisis policies?
Recovery in Europe The outcome of successful crisis policies? Discussion Catherine Mathieu, OFCE, Paris EUROPE AFTER THE CRISIS: WHERE IS THE ECONOMIC AND MONETARY UNION HEADED? Berlin, 12 June 2018 observatoire
The OECD Global Economic Outlook
The OECD Global Economic Outlook Nigel Pain OECD Economics Department Edinburgh, 11 July 2013 NCSL Symposium for Legislative Leaders 1 Overview Presentation structure Current situation and prospects. Global
ECB LTRO Dec Greece program
International Monetary Fund June 9, 212 Euro Area Crisis: Still in the Danger Zone */ Emil Stavrev Research Department ( */ Views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU
34 th Associates Meeting - Andorra, 25 May 2012 - Item 5: Evolution of economic governance in the EU Plan of the Presentation 1. Fiscal and economic coordination: how did it start? 2. Did it work? 3. Five
74 ECB THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE
Box 7 THE 2012 MACROECONOMIC IMBALANCE PROCEDURE This year s European Semester (i.e. the framework for EU policy coordination introduced in 2011) includes, for the first time, the implementation of the
The Turbulent EMS in the 1990s: What Lessons for Today? Professor of Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles Senior Fellow, Bruegel
The Turbulent in the 1990s: What Lessons for Today? André Sapir Professor of Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles Senior Fellow, Bruegel 2 The turbulent 1990s: the incompatible trio July 1990: Full
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce Contents Global and European economy UK economy Prospects for individuals and businesses Concluding remarks what next? Global and European
STAT/12/ October Household saving rate fell in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27. Household saving rate (seasonally adjusted)
STAT/12/152 30 October 2012 Quarterly Sector Accounts: second quarter of 2012 Household saving rate down to 12.9% in the euro area and stable at 11. in the EU27 Household real income per capita fell by
PMI and economic outlook
PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every
Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a protracted recession
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Olli REHN Vice-President of the European Commission and member of the Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a
The costs of internal devaluation in the EA
The costs of internal devaluation in the EA Engelbert Stockhammer Kingston University, UK. Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos The Open University Business School, UK. Presentation prepared for the 17th Conference
Governor of the Bank of Latvia
Lessons from Latvia s internal adjustment strategy Ilmārs Rimšēvičs Governor of the Bank of Latvia September 4, 2012 Presentation outline Overheating of Latvia s economy Expansionary consolidation Lessons
IZMIR UNIVERSITY of ECONOMICS
IZMIR UNIVERSITY of ECONOMICS Department of International Relations and the European Union TURKEY EU RELATIONS ( EU308) FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND TURKEY Prepared By: Büke OŞAFOĞLU
Is the Euro Crisis Over?
Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, Geneva 25 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did
Courthouse News Service
14/2009-30 January 2009 Sector Accounts: Third quarter of 2008 Household saving rate at 14.4% in the euro area and 10.7% in the EU27 Business investment rate at 23.5% in the euro area and 23.6% in the
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Christophe Frankel, CFO of EFSF ICMA Conference, Milan 24 May 2012
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis Christophe Frankel, CFO of EFSF ICMA Conference, Milan 24 May 2012 The reasons for sovereign debt crisis 1 Member States did not fully accept the political
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2000 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE IN EU-COUNTRIES 2 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years EU-15 Denmark Netherlands Great Britain Sweden Portugal Finland Austria Germany Ireland Luxembourg France Belgium Greece Spain
Restoring compe//veness: what has gone right, what has gone wrong?
Munich Economic Summit 2015 Compe//veness and Innova/on - May 2015 - Restoring compe//veness: what has gone right, what has gone wrong? Daniel Gros Munich, 21 May, 2015 Issue: Loss of compe//veness in
Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, CFA, PhD
, CFA, PhD Associate professor Romanian-American University Vice-president AAFBR Board member CFA Romania Bucharest, April 2011 1 Summary I. Some background II. Euro area imbalances III. Lessons IV. Conclusions
Economic and Financial Affairs Committee. The EMU: challenges and the way forward
Economic and Financial Affairs Committee The EMU: challenges and the way forward May 2013 1 1 Background (1) 2007-2008 U.S. sub-prime crisis: excessive risk-taking including opaque securitization & housing
Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for exits bailout,
PORTUGAL E O CAMINHO PARA O FUTURO: A BANCA E O SEU PAPEL
XV CONFERÊNCIA A CRISE EUROPEIA E AS REFORMAS NECESSÁRIAS PORTUGAL E O CAMINHO PARA O FUTURO: A BANCA E O SEU PAPEL FERNANDO FARIA DE OLIVEIRA AGENDA European Context: From the Actual Crisis to Growth
Bernard Connolly Europe Driver or Driven? EMU and the Lust for Crisis ACI Congress, May 30, 2008
Bernard Connolly Europe Driver or Driven? EMU and the Lust for Crisis ACI Congress, May 30, 2008 0 The information contained herein is being furnished for discussion purposes only and may be subject to
The economic crisis and the move towards new economic governance of the EU
The economic crisis and the move towards new economic governance of the EU Fritz Breuss JSPS EU-Japan Joint Seminar wiiw Rethinking Regional Integration in the Light of the Current Crisis: East Asia and
International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Jörg Decressin Deputy Director Research Department, IMF April 212 Towards Lasting Stability Global Economy Pulled Back from the Brink Policies Stepped
Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective
Euro area economic developments from monetary policy maker s perspective Member of Executive Board Structure of the presentation: 1. Where do we come from? ECB s monetary policy set up and main reactions
EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS
DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR INTERNAL POLICIES POLICY DEPARTMENT ON BUDGETARY AFFAIRS EU BUDGET AND NATIONAL BUDGETS 1999-2009 October 2010 INDEX Foreward 3 Table 1. EU and National budgets 1999-2009; EU-27
May 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 bn euro 3.8 bn euro deficit for EU27
108/2012-16 July 2012 May 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.9 3.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
Box 2 RECENT WIDENING IN EURO AREA SOVEREIGN BOND YIELD SPREADS This box looks at recent in euro area countries sovereign bond yield spreads and the potential roles played by credit and liquidity risk.
Kenneth Matziorinis McGill School of Continuing Studies Canbek Economic Consultants Inc. 19 th Annual Canadian Security Traders Conference
Kenneth Matziorinis McGill School of Continuing Studies Canbek Economic Consultants Inc. 19 th Annual Canadian Security Traders Conference Manoir Saint Sauveur, Saint Sauveur, Quebec August 16, 2012 Why
First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 bn euro bn euro deficit for EU27
27/2012-15 February 2012 First estimate for 2011 Euro area external trade deficit 7.7 152.8 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
Global Economic Prospects
Global Economic Prospects Back from the Brink? Andrew Burns World Bank Prospects Group April 12, 212 1 Amid some signs of improvement, global recovery remains fragile First quarter of 212 has been generally
Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Centre for Economic Performance 21st Birthday Lecture Series The State of the World Economy Olivier Blanchard Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, International Monetary Fund Lord
12. The European Balance of Payments Crisis. Recall: Macro Background: Interest rates, ten-year government bonds. Greece.
12. The European Balance of Payments Crisis Recall: Macro Background: 35 30 % Interest rates, ten-year government bonds Irrevocably fixed conversion rates Introduction of virtual euro Greece 25 20 Introduction
June 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28
127/2014-18 August 2014 June 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 16.8 bn 2.9 bn surplus for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q Irish Household Net Worth
Quarterly Financial Accounts Q4 2017 4 May 2018 Quarterly Financial Accounts Household net worth reaches new peak in Q4 2017 Household net worth rose by 2.1 per cent in Q4 2017. It now exceeds its pre-crisis
January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 bn euro 13.0 bn euro deficit for EU28
STAT/14/41 18 March 2014 January 2014 Euro area international trade in goods surplus 0.9 13.0 deficit for EU28 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA18) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
June 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 bn euro 0.4 bn euro surplus for EU27
121/2012-17 August 2012 June 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 14.9 0.4 surplus for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the world
MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA: THE EXPERIENCE OF SPAIN
MONETARY POLICY IN THE EURO AREA: THE EXPERIENCE OF SPAIN Óscar Arce Associate Director General Economics and Research 14 July 2017 XXVI International Financial Congress St. Petersburg ADG ECONOMICS AND
Capital Flows in the Euro Area: Some lessons from the last boom-bust cycle. Angel Gavilan, Martin Hillebrand December 2017
Capital Flows in the Euro Area: Some lessons from the last boom-bust cycle Angel Gavilan, Martin Hillebrand December 217 The last boom in capital flows was largely a global phenomenon Sum of current account
August 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 bn euro 12.6 bn euro deficit for EU27
146/2012-16 October 2012 August 2012 Euro area international trade in goods surplus of 6.6 12.6 deficit for EU27 The first estimate for the euro area 1 (EA17) trade in goods balance with the rest of the
Scenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 2016
17 March 2016 ECB-PUBLIC Scenario for the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority s EU-wide insurance stress test in 2016 Introduction In accordance with its mandate, the European Insurance
EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15 64 years)
EMPLOYMENT RATE 198 26 Employed/Working age population (15 64 years 8 % Finland 75 EU 15 EU 25 7 65 6 55 5 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4** 6** 14.4.25/SAK /TL Source: European Commission 1 UNEMPLOYMENT
What does Western Economic Crisis Mean for South Africa?
What does Western Economic Crisis Mean for South Africa? Seeraj Mohamed Corporate Strategy and Industrial Development Research Programme University of the Witwatersrand Context for Europe s Crisis Global
Regional Economic Outlook
E U R Advanced Europe Emerging Europe Regional Economic Outlook Spring 18 Key Messages Strong economic growth but lead indicators point to a peak Much lower wage growth in most of advanced Europe than
How Europe is Overcoming the Euro Crisis?
How Europe is Overcoming the Euro Crisis? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM University of Latvia, Riga 3 March 2014 Eight reasons for the sovereign debt crisis 1. Member States did not fully accept
: Monetary Economics and the European Union. Lecture 8. Instructor: Prof Robert Hill. The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II
320.326: Monetary Economics and the European Union Lecture 8 Instructor: Prof Robert Hill The Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union II De Grauwe Chapters 3, 4, 5 1 1. Countries in Trouble in the Eurozone
THE IMPACT OF THE PUBLIC DEBT STRUCTURE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER COUNTRIES ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DEBT OVERHANG
THE IMPACT OF THE PUBLIC DEBT STRUCTURE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION MEMBER COUNTRIES ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DEBT OVERHANG Robert Huterski, PhD Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń Faculty of Economic Sciences
The Great Depression, golden age, and global financial crisis
The Great Depression, golden age, and global financial crisis ECONOMICS Dr. Kumar Aniket Bartlett School of Construction & Project Management Lecture 17 CONTEXT Good policies and institutions can promote
EMPLOYMENT RATE Employed/Working age population (15-64 years)
1 EMPLOYMENT RATE 1980-2003 Employed/Working age population (15-64 years 80 % Finland (Com 75 70 65 60 EU-15 Finland (Stat. Fin. 55 50 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 9.9.2002/SAK /TL Source: European
Ending deflation in Japan vs. containing deflation in the euro area
Ending deflation in Japan vs. containing deflation in the euro area 2nd JEF-DGAP International Symposium Dr. Klaus Günter Deutsch Position Kundenlogo 3rd June 2014 Agenda 1 2 3 Abenomics Euro area adjustment
The Brussels Economic Forum
The Brussels Economic Forum What kind of policies should the new Member States apply to optimise their speed of convergence? Banco de Portugal VÍTOR CONSTÂNCIO Brussels, 23d of April 24 I. INTRODUCTION
THE EU S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PICKS UP MOMENTUM
THE EU S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PICKS UP MOMENTUM ECONOMIC SITUATION The EU economy saw a pick-up in growth momentum at the beginning of this year, boosted by strong business and consumer confidence. Output
Executive Summary. The Transatlantic Economy Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe
The Transatlantic Economy 2011 Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe Daniel S. Hamilton Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan and Joseph P. Quinlan Center
Global Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook. Jan 2010 Rhys Herbert
Global Economy & the Machine Tool Outlook Jan 21 Rhys Herbert rherbert@oxfordeconomics.com Which scenario do you favour? Short-term outlook (a) W -shaped cycle Growth initially boosted by inventory rebuild
EUROPA - Press Releases - Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax...of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000
DG TAXUD STAT/10/95 28 June 2010 Taxation trends in the European Union EU27 tax ratio fell to 39.3% of GDP in 2008 Steady decline in top corporate income tax rate since 2000 The overall tax-to-gdp ratio1
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks September 26, 2013 by Andrew Balls of PIMCO In the following interview, Andrew Balls, managing director and head of European portfolio
Fiscal union and the need for accurate macroeconomic statistics. Guntram Wolff, Bruegel Luxembourg 26 Jan 2016
Fiscal union and the need for accurate macroeconomic statistics Guntram Wolff, Bruegel Luxembourg 26 Jan 2016 Outline The euro area crisis The new institutional setup Importance of macroeconomic statistics
Consumer Credit. Introduction. June, the 6th (2013)
Consumer Credit in Europe at end-2012 Introduction Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has published its annual survey of the consumer credit market in 27 European Union countries (EU-27) for the sixth year
The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax in the Netherlands Íde Kearney, 13 th September 2018.
The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax in the Netherlands Íde Kearney, th September 08. This note reports estimates of the economic impact of introducing a carbon tax of 50 per ton of CO in the Netherlands.
2. European economy facing various problems as a microcosm of the world. Figure Changes in EU s real GDP growth by demand component
2. European economy facing various problems as a microcosm of the world (1) Current status of the European Economy (A) European Economy enters recession after the financial crisis occurs The economy of
Second estimate for the first quarter of 2010 EU27 current account deficit 34.8 bn euro 10.8 bn euro surplus on trade in services
109/2010-22 July 2010 Second estimate for the first quarter of 2010 EU27 current account deficit 34.8 bn euro 10.8 bn euro surplus on trade in According to the latest revisions 1, the EU27 2 external current
A Decade-Long Economic Crisis: Cyprus vs. Greece
A Decade-Long Economic Crisis: Cyprus vs. Greece Gikas Hardouvelis Professor of Finance & Economics University of Piraeus LSE SU Hellenic and Cypriot Societies Forum London, March 18, 17 TABLE OF CONTENTS
II. Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account deficits
II. Underlying domestic macroeconomic imbalances fuelled current account deficits Macroeconomic imbalances, including housing and credit bubbles, contributed to significant current account deficits in
World economy is walking a tight rope
World economy is walking a tight rope Wilfried Verstraete, Chairman of the Euler Hermes Board of Management Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist & Director of Economic Research Maxime Lemerle, Manager Macro
Session 11. Fiscal Policy
Session 11. Fiscal Policy Government size Budget balances Fiscal Policy over the business cycle Debt and sustainability Understanding Fiscal Policy: Government size Government size varies across countries.
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy
Chart pack to council for cooperation on macroprudential policy Contents List of charts... 3 Macro and macro-financial setting... 5 Swedish macroeconomic setting... 5 Foreign macroeconomic setting... Macro-financial
Session 12. The New Normal. Deflation and Zero Lower Bound.
Session 12. The New Normal. Deflation and Zero Lower Bound. Deflation and Interest Rates The Zero Lower Bound trap The Great Depression The Great Recession Deflation and the Zero Lower Bound Trap Deflation
Lecture 6: Money, finance and crisis in historical perspective
Economic History (Master PPD & APE, Paris School of Economics) Thomas Piketty Academic year 2015-2016 Lecture 6: Money, finance and crisis in historical perspective (check on line for updated versions)
TUC Statement on the HM Treasury Spring Statement : Time for action
TUC Statement on the HM Treasury Spring Statement : Time for action Time for action At the Autumn Budget the Chancellor looked to a future that will be full of change; full of new challenges and above
Negative Yields in the Eurozone: Rationale and Repercussions
The Invesco White Paper Series Invesco Fixed Income Negative Yields in the Eurozone: Rationale and Repercussions When in 1 the European Central Bank (ECB) introduced a negative deposit rate, this was not
DG TAXUD. STAT/11/100 1 July 2011
DG TAXUD STAT/11/100 1 July 2011 Taxation trends in the European Union Recession drove EU27 overall tax revenue down to 38.4% of GDP in 2009 Half of the Member States hiked the standard rate of VAT since
Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013
Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Greece Rising
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Klaus Regling, CEO of EFSF 40 th Economics Conference OeNB Vienna, 10 May 2012
Europe s Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis Klaus Regling, CEO of EFSF 40 th Economics Conference OeNB Vienna, 10 May 2012 Eight reasons for sovereign debt crisis Member States did not fully accept
Consumer credit market in Europe 2013 overview
Consumer credit market in Europe 2013 overview Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance published its annual survey of the consumer credit market in 28 European Union countries for seven years running. 9 July
Is the Euro Crisis Over?
Is the Euro Crisis Over? Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM Institute of International and European Affairs, Dublin 17 January 2014 Europe reacts to the euro crisis at national and EU level A comprehensive
What Governance for the Eurozone? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics
What Governance for the Eurozone? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics Outline of presentation Diagnosis od the Eurocrisis Design failures of Eurozone Redesigning the Eurozone: o Role of central bank
Growth in OECD Unit Labour Costs slows to 0.4% in the third quarter of 2016
Growth in OECD Unit Labour Costs slows to.4% in the third quarter of 26 Growth in unit labour costs (ULCs) in the OECD area slowed to.4% in the third quarter of 26 (compared with.6% in the previous quarter)
THE REFORM OF THE SPANISH POWER SYSTEM: TOWARDS FINANCIAL STABILITY AND REGULATORY CERTAINTY
THE REFORM OF THE SPANISH POWER SYSTEM: TOWARDS FINANCIAL STABILITY AND REGULATORY CERTAINTY 1. The starting point: evolution of system s costs and tariff deficit 2. The reform of the Spanish power system:
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011
Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain
European Banks Funding: recent trends and issues. Paolo Angelini Banca d Italia
European Banks Funding: recent trends and issues Paolo Angelini Banca d Italia New York, 27 September 2013 The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Italy
Turkey s Saving Deficit Issue From an Institutional Perspective
Turkey s Saving Deficit Issue From an Institutional Perspective Engin KURUN, Ph.D CEO, Ziraat Asset Management Oct. 25th, 2011 - Istanbul 1 PRESENTATION Household and Institutional Savings Institutional
Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy
Quarterly Report for the Greek Economy 3-2016 October 11 th, 2016 This presentation is supported by Various developments in the current period Positive developments: international tourism, low energy prices,
Ten years after the crisis: lessons learnt and forward risks for the Belgian economy and the financial sector
Ten years after the crisis: lessons learnt and forward risks for the Belgian economy and the financial sector Jean Hilgers Directeur Authors: De Prest, E. Deroose, M. Dresse, L. Schepens, Th. DS.18.9.374
Europe in crisis. George Gelauff. ECU 92 Lustrum Conference Utrecht. 23 February 2012
Europe in crisis George Gelauff ECU 92 Lustrum Conference Utrecht Menu Costs and benefits of Europe Banks and governments Monetary Union and debts Germany Conclusion 2 Europe in crisis Europe largest export
Previsions Macroeconòmiques. Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and June 2017
PM Previsions Macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy 2017 and 2018 June 2017 Previsions macroeconòmiques Macroeconomic scenario for the Catalan economy June 2017 ISSN: 2013-2182
Summary of the June 2010 Financial Stability RevieW
Summary of the June 21 Financial Stability RevieW The primary objective of the s Financial Stability Review (FSR) is to identify the main sources of risk to the stability of the euro area financial system
Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?
Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011
Second estimate for the third quarter of 2008 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in services
STAT/09/12 22 January 2009 Second estimate for the third quarter of 20 EU27 current account deficit 39.5 bn euro 19.3 bn euro surplus on trade in According to the latest revisions1, the EU272 external
Macroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession
Alphametrics (AM) Alphametrics Ltd Macroeconomic scenarios for skill demand and supply projections, including dealing with the recession Paper presented at Skillsnet technical workshop on: Forecasting
What is the global economic outlook?
The outlook What is the global economic outlook? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent United States.... Euro area. -. -.. Japan -.... Total OECD....
The Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth
The Irish Economic Update Very Robust Growth September 15 Oliver Mangan Chief Economist AIB April 13 aibeconomicresearch.com 1 Irish recovery gains very strong momentum Irish economy boomed from 1993 to
BUDGET DEFICIT AND PUBLIC DEBT THE GREAT CHALLENGES FOR THE EU MEMBER STATES
BUDGET DEFICIT AND PUBLIC DEBT THE GREAT CHALLENGES FOR THE EU MEMBER STATES PhD. Iulia LUPU Rezumat Criza financi -au deteriorat considerabil, atingând valori nemaiîntâlnite în ultima perioa privind datoria