Order of Engineers and Architects in Tripoli PENSION PLAN FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AS AT 31/12/2015

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1 21 June 2016 PENSION PLAN FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AS AT 31/12/2015 Actuary Report Prepared by: George Allam, CERA, ASA, ACA Samih Geha, FSA, FCA

2 Contact Details Dear Mr. Marius Beaini, We have the pleasure of enclosing a copy of the Actuarial Report documenting the modelling work as well as assumptions and results of the Performance Analysis as at 31/12/2015 in connection with the OEA s pension plan. Should you have any questions or require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact us. Our contact details are listed below. George Allam, CERA, ASA, ACA Phone / Fax : +961 (4) Mobile : +961 (76) georges.allam@actuscope.com.lb Berytech Technological Pole Mar Roukoz, Mkalles PO Box Riad El Solh Beirut Lebanon Samih Geha, FSA, FCA Phone / Fax : +961 (4) Mobile : +961 (70) samih.geha@actuscope.com.lb Berytech Technological Pole Mar Roukoz, Mkalles PO Box Riad El Solh Beirut Lebanon Contact Details 2

3 1 Table of Contents Section Contact Details Table of Contents List of Tables Executive Summary Objectives of the Report Findings and Conclusions Recommendation Base Pension Plan Additional End-Of-Service Plans Distribution and Use Uncertainty Introduction Plan Funding and Risks The Role of the Reserve The Steady-State Contribution Rate: an indicator of the Plan s financial situation Demographic Statistics Count of members Count of travelled members Distribution by age and residency Distribution by age and practice Distribution by Seniority in OEA Distribution by Seniority in the Pension Plan Retirement rate New Members Historical Financials Income Statement Deposits in Banks Projection Methodology Projected Cash Inflows and Outflows Projection Period Assumptions General Plan Parameters Demographic Assumptions Economic Assumptions Other Assumptions: the Retirement Rate Baseline Results Membership Contributions Benefits and other expenditures The Reserve Steady-State Contribution Rate Sensitivity of Results to Changes in Assumptions Sensitivity to Changes in Demographic Assumptions New Members per Month Growth Rate in New Members Annual Rate of Travelling Members Mortality Factor Sensitivity to Changes in Economic Assumptions Return On Assets Growth Rate in Average Annual Earnings per Member Growth Rate in Total Annual Permit Fees Monthly Pension Salary Amount Growth Rate in Monthly Pension Salary Sensitivity to Changes in the Minimum Retirement Rate Assumption Sensitivity to Changes in the Flat Contribution Growth Rate Assumption Additional End Of Service Program- Idafi Overview Page Table of Contents 3

4 12.2 Statistics Distribution by age and residency Distribution by seniority in the OEA Historical Financials Income Statement Deposits in Banks Parameters and Assumptions General Plan Parameters Demographic Assumptions Economic Assumptions Other Assumptions: the Retirement Rate Projections Results Membership Contributions Benefits and other expenditures The Reserve Additional End Of Service Program- Takmili Overview Statistics Distribution by age and residency Distribution by seniority in the OEA Historical Financials Income Statement Deposits in Banks Parameters and Assumptions General Plan Parameters Demographic Assumptions Economic Assumptions Other Assumptions: the Retirement Rate Projections Results Membership Contributions Benefits and other expenditures The Reserve END OF DOCUMENT Table of Contents 4

5 2 List of Tables Table Page Table 1: Baseline and Sensitivity Test Results... 8 Table 2: Count of Members Table 3: Count of Travelled Members Table 4: Distribution of Members by Age and Residency Table 5: Distribution of Members by Age and Practice Table 6: Distribution of Members by Seniority in OEA Table 7: Distribution of Members by Seniority in Pension Plan Table 8: Retirement Rate Table 9: New Members Rate Table 10: Number of University Students in Lebanon Table 11: Pension Fund Income Statement (k LBP) Table 12: Pension Fund Deposits in Banks (k LBP) Table 13: General Plan Parameters Sources of Income Table 14: General Plan Parameters Pension Benefits Table 15: Demographic Assumptions Table 16: Economic Assumptions Table 17: Average Retirement Rate in Past 23 Years Table 18: Permit Contribution Fees Base Pension Plan (LBP) Table 19: Projection of Count of Members Table 20: Pension Contributions Baseline Scenario (m LBP) Table 21: Pension Benefits and Other Expenditures - Baseline Scenario (m LBP) Table 22: Projection of the Reserve Baseline Scenario (m LBP) Table 23: Projection of the Reserve flat contribution increasing at 60k LBP every year (Scenario 11) (m LBP).. 29 Table 24: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Count of New Members per Month (m LBP) Table 25: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Growth Rate in New Members (m LBP) Table 26: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to the Rate on Members Travelling each Year (m LBP) Table 27: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Mortality Factor (m LBP) Table 28: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Return On Assets (m LBP) Table 29: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Growth Rate in Annual Earnings per Member (m LBP) Table 30: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Growth Rate in Total Permit Fees (m LBP) Table 31: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Monthly Pension Salary (m LBP) Table 32: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Growth Rate in the Monthly Pension Salary (m LBP) Table 33: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Minimum Retirement Rate (m LBP) Table 34: Projection of the Reserve Sensitivity to Growth Rate in Flat Contribution (m LBP) Table 35: Distribution of Members by Age and Residency Table 36: Distribution of Members by Seniority in OEA Table 37: End-Of-Service- Idafi Plan Income Statement (k LBP) Table 38: End-Of-Service- Idafi Plan Deposits in Banks (k LBP) Table 39: General Plan Parameters Sources of Income Table 40: General Plan Parameters Proposed Idafi -EOS Benefits Table 41: Demographic Assumptions Table 42: Economic Assumptions Table 43: Assumed Retirement Rate Table 44: Projection of Count of Members Table 45: Pension Contributions (m LBP) Table 46: End-Of-Service- Idafi Benefits and Other Expenditures (m LBP) Table 47: Projection of the Reserve Best Estimate Scenario (m LBP) Table 48: Projection of the Reserve Scenario with 0% growth rate in permit fees (m LBP) Table 49: Distribution of Members by Age and Residency Table 50: Distribution of Members by Seniority in OEA Table 51: End-Of-Service- Idafi Plan Income Statement (k LBP) List of Tables 5

6 Table 52: End-Of-Service- Idafi Plan Deposits in Banks (k LBP) Table 53: General Plan Parameters Sources of Income Table 54: General Plan Parameters Proposed Takmili -EOS Benefits Table 55: Demographic Assumptions Table 56: Economic Assumptions Table 57: Assumed Retirement Rate Table 58: Projection of Count of Members Table 59: End-Of-Service- Takmili Contributions (m LBP) Table 60: End-Of-Service- Takmili Benefits and Other Expenditures (m LBP) Table 61: Projection of the Reserve Best Estimate Scenario (m LBP) Table 62: Projection of the Reserve Scenario with 0% growth rate in permit fees (m LBP) List of Tables 6

7 3 Executive Summary 3.1 Objectives of the Report This Report has been prepared for the purpose of presenting the results of the actuarial valuation work performed on the pension regime of the Order of Engineers and Architects in Tripoli (referred to below as OEA or the Order ). This valuation report is prepared based on the analysis of the actual experience and performance of the pension plan as at 31 December 2015 and on specific assumptions which have been recently developed with regards to the retirement rate, demographic assumptions (e.g. the number of new members joining, percentage of married members, cancellation rate, mortality rates) and economic assumptions (e.g. return on assets, inflation rate, number of construction permits, average annual earnings per member and administrative expenditures). The ultimate purpose of this report is to assist the Order in the monitoring and decision-making processes related to the pension regime so as to maintain a good financial condition and ensure settlement of future obligations to members. We emphasize that the financial projections set out in this document relate to future periods and events and are based on assumptions, which may not remain valid for the whole of the relevant period. Consequently, they cannot be relied upon to the same extent as information derived from the audited financial statements for completed accounting periods. For these reasons, we express no opinion as to how closely the actual cash flows achieved will correspond to the projections nor do we take any responsibility for the achievement of the future results. This report has been prepared for the internal use of OEA. Our responsibility, liability and duty of care for any use of or reliance on this report are limited to the pension fund committee of the Order. The report must be read in its entirety; reading individual sections in isolation could be misleading. 3.2 Findings and Conclusions Assuming no change is being applied on the future annual growth rate of the Flat Contribution amount per member from its current level of 20k LBP (i.e. from 580k LBP in 2014 to 600k LBP in 2015), the Reserve, or pension fund value under the Baseline Scenario will become negative starting year The Reserve is very sensitive to three key parameters: i. the Retirement Rate, ii. the Growth Rate on the Permit Fees, and iii. the Growth Rate on the Flat Contribution amount per member. In our best estimate valuation, we kept the annual increase on the Flat Contribution at 20k LBP as is currently the case; separately we projected a long-term growth rate in construction Permit Fees at 10.0% per annum and a retirement rate starting at 23.0% per annum for retirement age 64 and decreasing with age, in line with the current observed experience. Based on these assumptions, contributions are greater than cash outflows until Starting from 2020, a portion of the investment income generated from the Reserve will have to be used to cover the shortfall between contributions and cash outflows. However, the investment amount is too small to generate sufficient additional income due to the annual expenditures being almost equal to the annual contributions paid. Consequently, the Reserve decreases over time and becomes negative starting year Executive Summary 7

8 The best estimate scenario is not robust enough in our opinion. For example, the growth rate in Permit Fees is very volatile and consequently highly uncertain. For that reason, we ran several sensitivity scenarios in order to show the magnitude of the impact on results from relative changes in key parameters as well as demographic and economic assumptions. Following is a short summary of the key results from this sensitivity test. Table 1: Baseline and Sensitivity Test Results Scenario Baseline Sc. 1 Sc. 2 Sc. 3 Sc. 4 Sc. 5 Sc. 6 Sc. 7 Sc. 8 Sc. 9 Sc. 10 Sc. 11 Sc. 12 Sc. 13 Assumption Demographic New members/month Growth Rate in New Members 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Annual Traveled Rate (% new members) 40% 40% 40% 30% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% Mortality Factor 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Economic Return On Asset 5.5% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 4.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Growth in Earnings 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 2.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% Growth in Rokhsa/Amtar Fees 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 5.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% Other Monthly Pension (LBP) 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,254,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 1,140,000 Pension Salary Annual Growth Amount (LBP) 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 20,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 Min. Retirement Rate 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 10.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Pension Contribution Annual Growth Amount 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 60,000 20,000 20,000 Order Contribution Annual fee (abroad) 450, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Pension Contribution Annual Growth Amount-Abroad ,000 Results (m LBP) R eserve in y ear ,615 46,346 39,931 38,063 35,919 34,041 39,023 38,038 25,552 63,697 24,783 72,553 44,521 42,122 R eserve in y ear 2040 (141,001) (84,082) (116,055) (146,786) (168,917) (149,455) (136,792) (148,140) (188,659) 147,166 (268,376) 216,495 (119,670) (110,817) R eserve in y ear 2055 (864,150) (709,702) (730,093) (890,579) (967,686) (872,604) (847,089) (905,107) (964,620) 209,859 (1,293,673) 369,187 (825,143) (768,118) R eserve in y ear 2075 (3,154,739) (3,061,387) (2,581,691) (3,548,902) (3,545,640) (3,163,192) (3,078,331) (3,487,682) (3,375,239) 334,973 (4,515,624) 492,744 (3,076,545) (2,834,695) R eserve in y ear 2090 (5,253,759) (5,716,126) (4,309,702) (6,578,315) (6,020,671) (5,262,213) (5,051,567) (6,731,155) (5,599,588) 2,034,664 (7,760,335) 2,371,718 (5,128,603) (4,576,408) Based on the above presented sensitivity results, mainly looking at Scenario 11 as compared to the Baseline Scenario, we conclude that the current level of contributions is insufficient to maintain a correct funding for the Pension Plan on the long-run. However, by increasing the Flat Contribution as suggested in Scenario 11, this problem can be overcome. Alternatively, the problem can be avoided by reducing the annual growth in the pension salary to just 20k LBP instead 60k LBP. 3.3 Recommendations Base Pension Plan Unless alternative sources of funding and/or increase in the Order s contribution share from its fund surplus is envisioned, we recommend that the regular Flat Contribution per member be increased at a minimum annual rate of 60k LBP as per the above Scenario 11 in order to avoid a possible negative reserve starting year We would refer to the Contribution in this case the Steady-State Contribution. Based on this assumption, contributions would stay greater than cash outflows until As from 2042, a portion of the investment income generated from the Reserve will have to be used to cover the shortfall between contributions and cash outflows. Consequently, the Reserve increases throughout the projection period, reaching 369b LBP in 2055 and 2,372b LBP in 2090 respectively. The ratio of the Reserve at the end of one year to the cash outflows for the following year is 2.83 in 2015 and will relatively stabilise between 1.4 and 4.6 after This ratio helps measure the relative size of the Reserve. In 2055 and 2075, the Reserve represents respectively, 2.3 and 1.6 times the cash outflows of the following year. This reflects the steady-state Contribution Rate, which leads to a certain stabilization of the ratio of reserves over outflows. Executive Summary 8

9 Alternatively, the Order can study the possibility to increase the variable Permit Fee per sqm., or reduce the monthly pension salary, so as to avoid a deficit in the pension fund and make it more resilient to possible future increases in the retirement rates, at least within a certain range. In addition, following the Order s wish to waive the annual Flat Pension Contribution-i.e. the current 600k LBP fee, our analysis showed that this waiver would not materially impact the performance of the Base Pension Plan and consequently see that such fee waiver is possible to implement. Finally, following best practices, it is recommended that another actuarial valuation of the Order s Pension regime be conducted as at year-end 2018 to follow up on the results of the present one, and assess actual vs. expected experience Additional End-Of-Service Plans It is worth noting that under the Base Pension plan, approximately 1,300 working members only contribute to the fund in form of annual Permit Fees while all existing plan members benefit from the pension salary at retirement. In addition to their contributions to the Base Pension plan, 629 (resp. 146) OEA members are contributing as well to the additional end-of-service Idafi (resp. Takmili ) program since year 2005 with contributions mainly coming in form of Permit Fees. On average, 24 (resp. 12) new members are joining this scheme every year. Based on our projections under section 12 (resp. 13) below, we recommend fixing the current additional monthly pension salary at 75% of the Base Plan salary-i.e. 900k LBP starting year 2016 and growing at a rate of 45k LBP each year. This amount can be revised in future years as more experience is built-up. 3.4 Distribution and Use This Report has been prepared for the sole use and benefit of OEA in Tripoli for the purpose described above. It is not intended, nor necessarily suitable, for any other purpose. No reliance should be placed on any advice not given in writing, or on draft versions of our figures, reports or letters. This Report and/or any associated correspondence may not be reproduced, distributed or communicated in whole or in part to any other person or be relied upon by any other person, except with the prior written consent of Actuscope. 3.5 Uncertainty In our opinion, we have employed techniques and assumptions that are appropriate, and we consider the estimates and the consequential conclusions presented herein to be reasonable, given the information that we have reviewed. Nevertheless, it should be noted that there are conceptually three primary components of uncertainty in reserves estimation: Model Uncertainty: the projection methods we have used to estimate future liabilities are statistical models. Each has certain underlying assumptions and hence their outputs contain bias. As future liability in reality do not necessarily conform to any particular statistical model, the modelling automatically introduces a degree of uncertainty. Parameter Uncertainty: we have parameterized the models we have used with reference to past experience, adjusted for our interpretation of the data and our expectations of what might happen in the future. Historical experience always contains some distortions, as well as random development; therefore, there will always be some degree of uncertainty regarding the appropriateness of the selected parameters or assumptions. Executive Summary 9

10 Process Uncertainty: whereas parameter uncertainty is all about using past data to select parameters and assumptions, process uncertainty is about the fact that the future outcome will itself be uncertain. Even if the parameter uncertainty were zero, there would still be a range of possible outcomes. As a result, any estimate of future liabilities or risk costs is subject to the inherent limitation on the estimator s ability to predict the aggregate course of future events. It should therefore be expected that the actual emergence of claims would vary, perhaps materially, from any estimate, especially if there were any extraordinary and unanticipated changes to the legal, social, or economic environment, which might affect the cost, frequency, or future reporting of claims. Executive Summary 10

11 4 Introduction The OEA pension regime is a Defined Benefit Plan (the Plan ) with a flat dollar benefit formula; i.e. the retirement benefit is not directly related to the length of service under the plan as long as the member meets the minimum eligibility requirements. The actuarial valuation serves to inform the Order of financial changes in the Plan. To do so, it presents a projection of the Plan s cash inflows and outflows and their effect on the reserve. It also evaluates the steady-state contribution rate. The data is updated and the demographic and economic assumptions are adjusted in accordance with any changes that have occurred within the Plan environment. Additional projections are also given so as to evaluate the sensitivity of the steady-state contribution rate to certain variations in the main elements that affect the results: demographic and economic assumptions, retirement behaviours, and the Plan s provisions. The actuarial report covers Plan funding and risks, the valuation methodology, the main assumptions made, the reserve results obtained and changes in the reserve based on the steady-state contribution rate, as well as sensitivity tests on those results. Introduction 11

12 5 Plan Funding and Risks This section briefly explains how the Plan is funded as well as the risks it faces. Our understanding is that the Order adopted a full capital funded 1 approach in contrast with a pure payas-you-go 2 funding scheme. This method of funding allows the constitution of a reserve in order to protect the Plan against economic fluctuations. Although the Plan is partially funded, which makes it possible to generate investment earnings, the main source of funding is still the contributions paid by the members. Changes in the Plan s funding are therefore mainly dependent on the number of contributing members, both existing and new expected to join in the future. The partially-funded approach therefore adds a particular dynamic to the assessment and management of Plan risks. Fluctuations in returns from the various investments have a much less significant impact on the Plan s financial situation than if the Plan were fully funded. Funding risks can also be palliated by the fact that the Plan s funding objectives are very long term. Demographic components are relatively predictable. Consequently, managing this risk is therefore easier compared with that of financial market yields. Changes in the economic and demographic environments create upward pressure on the contribution rate. In that context, it might be necessary to increase the contribution in the future in order to ensure stable, long-term funding and improving fairness between the generations of contributors. The statutory contribution rate will require adjusting if it is less than the steady-state contribution rate. 5.1 The Role of the Reserve The reserve was initially constituted in order to protect the Plan against economic fluctuations. However, the reserve does not constitute an actual margin for economic fluctuations or margin for adverse deviations, as it is an integral part of Plan funding. In other words, if the expected level of the reserve and yield do not meet minimum requirements, Plan funding will have to be adjusted by increasing the contribution rate. The actual yield for a partially-funded plan comes mainly from the return on its investments, and by extension, its investment policy. If the actual yield is less than that expected, losses are incurred and funding must be adjusted in order to restore balance to the plan. The constitution of the reserve allows: the diversification of Plan risk. Plan performance is not only the result of the income from contributions, but also the return for each financial asset category; possible increase in the anticipated Plan yield, leading to a decrease in the cost of Plan funding, in case a more diversified portfolio partially oriented towards equity securities; a contribution rate that is stable over time to be achieved. A higher reserve will make it possible, in particular, to reduce certain effects like the aging of the population. 1 In a fully funded plan, the aggregate contributions made throughout the active life of a group of members are used to pay all of that group s benefits. 2 In a pure pay-as-you-go funding scheme, the contributions of a given year are used to pay the benefits of the same year. Plan Funding and Risks 12

13 5.2 The Steady-State Contribution Rate: an indicator of the Plan s financial situation The steady-state contribution rate is used to determine the Plan s long-term funding stability. This indicator is the contribution rate for future years that would be required to maintain a constant ratio of the reserve to annual cash outflows over the long term. If the steady-state contribution rate was applied as of 2016, the additional cash inflows from contributions and investment income would increase the reserve at the same rate as cash outflows, and maintain a constant ratio of the reserve to annual cash outflows over the long term. It should be noted that the Plan s actuarial valuation is a best estimate. This means that no provision or margin is included to take into account unfavourable circumstances related to actuarial assumptions. If a provision or margin for adverse deviations were included, a favourable Plan experience in relation to the assumptions made would be much more likely. The actuarial valuation therefore calculates Plan costs using only a reasonable scenario based on best estimates when in reality, there is a wide range of possible results. For this reason, sensitivity tests on the results are carried out and presented below so that the effect of different variations in relation to the assumptions and other parameters of the valuation can be better assessed. The actuarial valuation prepared every three years is used to determine the Plan s financial situation and, consequently, any changes in various risk factors over time. It is recommended that the directors of the fund understand thoroughly the risks facing the Plan and the consequences those risks could have on current and future contributors and beneficiaries. The risks and methods for their management can be set out in detail in a long-term funding policy. The policy would also address the issues of intergenerational equity, investments, level of benefits and funding objectives, as risk management is closely linked to these elements. Plan Funding and Risks 13

14 6 Demographic Statistics 6.1 Count of members The aggregate number of pension fund members as at 31/12/2015 is estimated at 10,474 including those active, retired, cancelled and dead through the years. The below table shows the split of members and pensioners by status category in the past 6 years as well as the total from all past years. Table 2: Count of Members Year Active Retired Early- Dead Dead Pensioners Cancelled New Active Contributors Cancellation Contributors Members Retired Pensioners Dead Members Members (EOY) Rate (BOY) Members (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)=(1)-(2)- -(7)+(8) (10)=(7)/(1) , , % , , % , , % , , % , , % , ,075 8, % Total 7, ,474 8, % 6.2 Count of travelled members The below table shows the number of those members who travel abroad each year during the past 6 years to reside and work outside Lebanon but who continue their contributions to the pension fund. The ratio of travelled members each year to the number of newly joining members is also shown to be very close to 40% as used in our projections. Table 3: Count of Travelled Members Year New Members Travelled Members Travelled Members as % of New Joiners (1) (2) (3)=(2)/(1) % % % % % , % Total 3,801 1, % Demographic Statistics 14

15 6.3 Distribution by age and residency The below tables and graphs present the distribution of the existing OEA population of members by attained age-group and residency as at 31/12/2015. Table 4: Distribution of Members by Age and Residency Age Group Local Abroad Total (1) (2) (3)=(1)+(2) , , , , , Total 5,271 3,588 8, Distribution by age and practice The below tables and graphs present the distribution of the existing local OEA population of members by attained age-group and residency as at 31/12/2015. Table 5: Distribution of Members by Age and Practice Age Group Practicing Not Practicing Total (1) (2) (3)=(1)+(2) , Total 4,067 1,204 5,271 Demographic Statistics 15

16 6.5 Distribution by Seniority in OEA The below tables and graphs present the distribution of the existing OEA population by the number of years since joining the Order. Table 6: Distribution of Members by Seniority in OEA Age Group Local Abroad Total (1) (2) (3)=(1)+(2) 0-4 1,778 1,016 2, , , , , Total 5,271 3,588 8, Distribution by Seniority in the Pension Plan The below tables and graphs present the distribution of the existing OEA population by the number of years since joining the Pension Plan. Based on the data we received, the oldest pension plan start date goes back to Table 7: Distribution of Members by Seniority in Pension Plan Age Group Local Abroad Total (1) (2) (3)=(1)+(2) 0-4 1,778 1,016 2, , , , , Total 5,271 3,588 8,859 Demographic Statistics 16

17 6.7 Retirement rate The below table shows the derivation of the retirement rate by members attained age since not all members actually retire at age 64 but instead continue as active contributors until older ages. The below numbers are aggregates over the period from 1992 until Table 8: Retirement Rate Age Number of Members Group Eligible for Retirement Number of Actual Retires Retirement Rate (1) (2) (3)=(2)/(1) % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Demographic Statistics 17

18 6.8 New Members The number of new joining members each year for the past 23 years is reported in the below table. This was revolving lately in the range of 500 to 650 new members except in year 2015 whereby the number increased to 1,075 probably due to recent talks inside the OEA about implementing a colloquium examination as a requirement for joining the Order. Table 9: New Members Rate Age Number of New Group Members Growth Rate in New Members (1) (2)=(1) t /(1) t % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % , % Average 9.0% The average annual growth rate in new members is 9.0%. We see that this is a high rate which cannot be sustained over the long run. In fact, analysing data for the total number of university students in Lebanon, we get a much lower growth rate from year to year of 4.6% between years 2007 to Table 10: Number of University Students in Lebanon Year Count of Students Growth Rate ,364 (1) (2)=(1) t /(1) t , % , % , % , % Average 4.6% In addition, the population in Lebanon is estimated to grow at an average rate of less than 1.0% each year. Consequently, we projected a 2.0% long-term growth rate in new joiners to the pension plan. Demographic Statistics 18

19 7 Historical Financials 7.1 Income Statement We present in the below table useful financial income statement figures for the pension plan, mainly items constituting the revenues and expenses at end of each year since 2010 until 2015 as provided to us by the OEA. Table 11: Pension Fund Income Statement (k LBP) Revenues Annual Contribution Fees 2,203,920 2,550,230 2,872,557 3,203,460 3,571,194 4,716,700 Unsettled Fees Due 327, , , , , ,098 Share of the Pension Fund from Permit Fees (per sqm) 10, , , , , ,085 Share of the Pension Fund from Subscription Fees (30%) 167, , , , , ,600 Share of the Pension Fund from Contribution Fees (20%) 521, , , , , ,191 Share of the Pension Fund from Stamp Fees (70%) 73,055 96,110 98,259 95,164 93,238 97,356 Share of the Pension Fund from Unsettled Municipality Building Fees , Share of the Pension Fund from Municipality Building Fees 240, , , , , ,454 Pension Stamp Fees 30,310 34,344 29,228 22,917 27,170 30,044 Investment Return on Late Contributions 34,112 36,997 37,626 46,142 50,672 50,710 Investment Return from Banks 585, , , ,612 1,012,174 1,437,718 Real Estate Returns - Order Building 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 35,000 Real Estate Returns - Lycee Building previously 124, , , , ,513 Stock Investment Returns - 7, Various Revenues 302-1,884 2, Order Contribution from Annual Surplus 580, , ,000 1,060, , ,000 Total Revenues 4,936,009 6,143,948 7,596,695 8,359,729 8,311,790 10,232,469 Expenses Pension Benefits 3,314,574 3,993,373 4,518,967 5,193,057 5,791,326 7,015,378 Operating Expenses 20,914 27,553 27,103 39,179 30,727 82,422 Total Expenses 3,335,488 4,020,926 4,546,071 5,232,236 5,822,052 7,097,800 Surplus 1,600,520 2,123,022 3,050,624 3,127,493 2,489,738 3,134, Deposits in Banks We present in the below table the historical financial position of the investment deposits in Banks of the pension fund in the past 6 years as reported to us by the OEA. Table 12: Pension Fund Deposits in Banks (k LBP) Deposits in Banks 10,800,778 13,328,693 14,738,648 17,042,078 19,393,692 25,263,552 Historical Financials 19

20 8 Projection Methodology The valuation of a Pension Plan consists of projecting the cash inflows and outflows of coming years so as to estimate changes in the Reserve from year to year. Based on those changes, it is possible to determine whether the Plan s funding objectives have been met. As mentioned in the previous section, the Plan s funding objectives are based on long-term funding stability, the main indicator of which is the steady-state contribution rate. The latter is determined based on the long-term objective of a stable ratio of the reserve to annual cash outflows. 8.1 Projected Cash Inflows and Outflows The current valuation was based on an actuarial model for projecting demographic and economic factors so as to determine the level of future cash inflows and outflows of the Plan. The model requires a number of data, particularly data on the Plan s contributors and beneficiaries, as well as the establishment of several assumptions. The actuarial valuation was made in accordance with the provisions of the Plan. The method used projects the population of OEA on the basis of assumptions for new members joining the scheme every year, lapses and mortality. The projected population by age serves to determine both the population that contributes to the Plan and the population eligible for the Plan s various benefits. Contributions and investment income make up the Plan s cash inflows. For each year in the projection period, total contributions are determined based on current levels of fixed and variable contribution rates per member as communicated by OEA as well as assumptions about future contribution growth rates. Investment earnings are calculated on the basis of yield assumptions for the different asset categories of the Plan s investment policy. Cash outflows are made up of the benefits paid out and administration costs. Benefits are projected using assumptions based on the population s eligibility rates for the various benefits, the probability of the occurrence of an event giving entitlement to a pension. These parameters are projected using assumptions based mainly on Plan experience. Administration costs are projected on the basis of current expense levels assuming a certain future inflation rate. The assumptions and results presented in the following two sections make it possible to measure changes in the reserve based on the applied contribution level. It is thus possible to verify whether, based on the assumptions made, the contributions collected plus investment income are sufficient to fund cash outflows and ensure a sufficient reserve at the end of the projection period. 8.2 Projection Period To properly evaluate the Plan s future financial situation, cash inflows and outflows must be projected over a relatively long period in order to fully understand the extent of the demographic impact especially that a good number of the Plan s participants are getting closer or above the retirement age. The projection period selected for this actuarial valuation covers a 75-year period ending in The uncertainty associated with the projections in an actuarial valuation increases over time. As we delve further into the projection period, the number of contributors and the profile of earnings for future retirees depend more and more on the assumptions made. Furthermore, a small but recurring yearly fluctuation in the difference between cash inflows and outflows may significantly affect the level of the reserve accumulated over the long term. Projection Methodology 20

21 9 Assumptions The production of an actuarial valuation requires making assumptions on the demographic and economic environment as well as a certain number of assumptions specific to the Plan s experience. This section describes the main assumptions made for this valuation. Since the purpose of the actuarial valuation is to analyse the Plan s financial situation by forecasting the changes in the Plan s cash inflows and outflows until 2090, the assumptions must be made from a longterm perspective. Recent situations resulting from a specific set of circumstances must be taken into consideration, without assigning them undue importance. Several elements are taken into account in the elaboration of assumptions, including the Plan s experience, historical trends related to demographic, financial and economic factors, comparisons with the assumptions made by other plans at the national level. It is important to keep in mind that the actuarial valuation of the Plan is not an exercise in predicting or forecasting the future. The scenario used for the projection is based on the best estimates of actuaries. The assumptions are determined so as to be reasonable on an individual basis and coherent on an overall basis. Since many assumptions are interrelated, they must form a coherent whole that provides a rational projection over the long-term. An approach based on realistic estimates also means that the actuarial valuation of the Plan is not based on assumptions determined in a conservative or prudent manner. The choice of assumptions for the valuation of the Plan is not dictated by a funding policy that sets out the factors to be taken into account when valuing the cost of the Plan. There will be differences between the future reality and the assumptions made. These differences may have an upward or downward effect compared with the results of this actuarial valuation. They will therefore be analysed and taken into account in subsequent actuarial valuations. 9.1 General Plan Parameters We list in the below two tables key parameters related to the different sources of income and benefits payable under the Plan as they stand on 31/12/2015. Table 13: General Plan Parameters Sources of Income Income Parameters Value Comment Opening Reserve on 1/1/2016 (LBP) 25.9b Order Initial Subscription Fee (LBP) 1.5m 30% goes as pension fund subscription fee Order Subscription Fee Growth Rate 0.0% Order Contribution Annual Fee per Member (LBP) 85k 20% goes as pension fund contribution fee Order Contribution Annual Surplus Fee (Fixed) 870m 30% of annual surplus Fund from Order Order Contribution Annual Surplus - Growth Rate 2.0% Order Contribution Annual fee (% of member s earnings) 0.8% 20% goes as pension fund contribution fee Order Contribution Annual fee (flat if abroad) 450k 20% goes as pension fund contribution fee Pension Fund Annual Flat Contribution (LBP) Growth Rate in Pension Fund Annual Flat Contribution (LBP) Pension Contribution from Permit Fees (LBP/m 2 ) 600k 20k Area 3,000m 2 0 3,000<Area 6,000m ,000<Area 10,000m 2 1,000 Area>10,000m 2 1,500 Long-Term Growth in Permit Fees per year 10.0% Assumptions 21

22 Table 14: General Plan Parameters Pension Benefits Benefit Parameters Value Monthly Pension Salary in 2015 (LBP) Age 64 & Term = 25 years 1,140k Age 64 & 15 Term < 25 years Prorate Age 64 & Term < 15 years Nil Growth Rate in Monthly Pension Salary (LBP) 60k Annual Death benefits as % of full pension benefit Spouse 33.3% Children below age % Parents 8.3% 9.2 Demographic Assumptions A projection of the OEA population is the basis for determining the number of Plan contributors and beneficiaries. The projection uses the population to which is applied the mortality and lapse assumptions. The current population structure strongly influences the valuation s projections. The age distribution of the initial population shows a significant weight for the young population but with a relatively good number of members approaching or even having crossed the retirement age. The demographic projections are based on several assumptions summarized in the below table. Table 15: Demographic Assumptions Demographic Assumption Value Number of New Members Subscribing each Month 50 Growth Rate in New Members 2.0% % Married Members 65.0% % Married Members having Kids below % % Members with Parent Dependents 7.5% Annual Lapse Rate 0.65% Annual Travelled Rate (% new members) 40.0% Annual Rate for Early Retired 0.05% Mortality/Morbidity Incidence Rates RP_2014 SOA Table Mortality Factor 100.0% Any differences between these assumptions and the actual rates will have an effect on the exact distribution of the population by age. By projecting the population over a long period, it is possible to grasp the magnitude of the age structure upheavals. 9.3 Economic Assumptions The economic assumptions are related to changes in inflation rate, average annual earnings per member and the rate of return on investments. Economic assumptions are summarized in the below table. Table 16: Economic Assumptions Economic Assumption Value Return On Assets 5.5% Inflation rate 3.5% Average Annual Earnings (LBP) 28m Growth rate in Annual Earnings per Member 1.5% Operational Expenses 2015 (LBP) 82,422,054 OPEX Annual Growth Rate (inflation rate) 3.5% Assumptions 22

23 9.4 Other Assumptions: the Retirement Rate For the purposes of this valuation, the retirement rate is determined by cohort for the ages from 64 to 80. The rate is not the probability that a person will retire at a given age. Instead, it is the ratio between the number of persons who will become beneficiaries at a given age and the total number of eligible persons in the cohort. The retirement rate allows us to determine when retirement benefits become payable. The normal retirement age under the Plan is 64. Also, a person who decides for an early retirement would receive a reduced retirement pension based on a prorate formula. During year 2015, 47 members out of the 303 eligible got retired, or an aggregate rate of 15.5%. We show below the exact retirement rate by members attained age which was applied in our projections. Table 17: Average Retirement Rate in Past 23 Years Attained Count of Count of % Retired Age Members Retired % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 9.5 Other Assumptions: the Permit Contribution Fees We present in the below table the total pension contribution fees coming from the base pension fund share of all Permit Fees collected on each square meter of construction permit. this amount is seen to be reducing from year to year at an average annual rate of 10.8%. Table 18: Permit Contribution Fees Base Pension Plan (LBP) Permit Contribution Fees year Average Base Pension Plan 546,615, ,614, ,709, ,085, ,006, % -15.6% -41.0% -10.8% It is worth noting that the permit fees vary depending on the area size of each construction permit following the schedule presented in Table 13 above. Consequently, we tried to analyse the annual growth rate in permit fees by area category. However, the data received form the OEA was not reliable in order to conduct such analysis. Instead, we relied on our analysis of the individual permits per member as well as well as our judgement when setting the rate of progression of the permit fees. We believe that the permit fees related to the highest are size category (Area>10,000m 2 ) are reducing at a high pace over the future years while we assumed that the lower area band permit fees will grow at an annual rate of 10%. A sensitivity analysis is run over this assumption in order to show its impact on the reserve result. Assumptions 23

24 10 Baseline Results 10.1 Membership The number of active contributors increases continuously until the end of the projection period, rising from 8,875 in 2015 to 36,323 in 2055 and 83,918 in The number of active contributors is coming mainly from the progression of the exiting population at end 2015, the new members joining each year and those cancelled, retired or dead each year. The below Table shows the progression of the members count under the different categories mentioned. Table 19: Projection of Count of Members Year New Old-Age Early- Dead Dead Pensioner Traveled Cancelled Total Active Mem bers Total Active Members Members Retired Pensioneer Dead (EOY) without Travelled (EOY) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) t =(9) t - 1 +(1)-Δ(2)- -Δ(8) (10)=(7)+(9) , , ,875 5, , ,386 5, , ,918 5, , ,456 6, , ,996 6, ,729 1,012 11,538 6, ,930 1,259 14,347 8, ,247 1,560 17,370 10, , ,696 1,918 20,656 11, , ,255 2,339 24,181 13, ,068 1, , ,912 2,825 27,947 16, ,176 2, , ,732 3,382 31,989 18, ,296 2, , ,777 4,012 36,323 20, ,440 3, , ,284 4,697 41,154 22, ,584 3, , ,103 21,147 5,438 46,592 25, ,752 3, , ,266 24,378 6,247 52,658 28, ,932 3, , ,447 27,975 7,130 59,395 31, ,136 4, , ,646 31,938 8,099 66,799 34, ,352 4, , ,866 36,295 9,163 74,933 38, ,592 5, , ,109 41,132 10,332 83,918 42,786 Graph 1: Count of Plan Members * Note: For a better reading of the chart, cumulative counts are shown as bars with values reported on the right Y axis, while yearly movement counts are shown as lines with values reported on the left Y axis Baseline Results 24

25 10.2 Contributions Plan contributions are determined according to the number of contributors for the fixed part and to members contributory earnings and the contribution rate for the variable income. Thus, the demographic and economic assumptions described in the preceding sections allow us to determine the level of future contributions. The Table below shows that total contributions increase from 8.7b LBP in 2015 to 66.0b LBP in 2055 and to 348.6b LBP in Table 20: Pension Contributions Baseline Scenario (m LBP) Year Number of Active + Total Declared Contribution - Contribution - Contribution - Contribution - Order Contribution - Regular Variable Contribution - Order Contribution - Contribution - Contribution - Municipality Real Estate Order Contribution Total Travelled Contributors Income Regular Flat Fee Permit (Rokhsa) Plan Subscription Regular Flat Fee Fee (0.8 of income) Regular Flat Fee-travel Order Stamps Municipal Fee Pension Stamps Building Fees Returns from Annual Surplus Contributions (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)=(2) x 8 (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15)=(3)+ +(14) ,248 39,829 2, , ,463 58,224 5, , ,196 50,256 5, , ,953 54,013 6, , ,720 57,910 6, , ,492 61,921 7, , ,267 66,053 8, , ,277 88,985 11, ,061 15, , ,567 15, ,171 20, , ,776 20,635 1, , ,293 27, , ,370 26,563 1, , , ,427 34, , ,139 33,483 2, ,889 1, , ,576 43, , ,644 41,524 3, ,333 1, , ,740 53, , ,660 50,802 5, ,861 1, , ,921 66, , ,386 61,794 9, ,499 1, , ,121 81, , ,045 74,670 14, ,272 1, , , , , ,683 89,702 22, ,205 2, , , , , , ,144 36, ,329 2, , , , , , ,200 57, ,671 2, , , , ,228 1,159, ,199 92,036 1, ,274 3, , , , ,050 1,399, , ,027 1, ,193 3, , , ,613 Graph 2: Pension Contributions Baseline Scenario * Note: For a better reading of the chart, total yearly amounts are shown as bars with values reported on the right Y axis, while yearly amounts by contribution category are shown as lines with values reported on the left Y axis 10.3 Benefits and other expenditures The OEA Pension Plan provides financial protection in the event of retirement, death (surviving spouse s pension, orphan s pension and parents pension) and disability (disability pension, pension for a disabled person s child). Benefit amounts are projected using the assumptions described above. The projected number of beneficiaries for the period from 2016 to 2090 is shown in the section 10.1 by type of benefit. The number of people receiving a retirement pension is expected to increase in the near future as the number of members entitled for benefits is growing. Baseline Results 25