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1 MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD: A Path to a Sustainable State Budget Alaska State Chamber of Commerce Anchorage, Alaska January 7, 2015 Scott Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage
2 State Fiscal Plan -- Part 1
3 State Fiscal Plan -- Part 1
4 State Fiscal Plan -- Part 1
5 Overspending: Pass the Burden onto the Future ü Smaller Nest Egg ü Higher taxes on households and businesses ü Reduced public services ü Economic pneumonia rather than sniffle ü Disincentive to invest in Alaska resource development ü Smaller PF Dividend ü Attack on the Permanent Fund
6 How Much to Save? What is Sustainable? ü Even with higher prices and more production, future petroleum revenues will not keep growing fast enough to keep up with inflation and population. ü New oil will be more expensive to produce, so the taxable value per barrel will be less. ü New oil will increasingly come from Federal Land (NPRA, ANWR, OCS) where the ability to tax is limited and the state does not directly collect a royalty, so the taxable barrel will be less. ü Most of the market value of natural gas will be consumed in getting it to market, so the taxable value will be limited. ü Revenue growth potential from non-petroleum resources is extremely limited, even with state investments.
7 The Answer: MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD MANAGE OUR PETROLEUM WEALTH LIKE A DEPLETABLE ASSET 1. How much is it worth? 2. How can we invest it for maximum return? 3. How much can we spend each year without depleting the nest egg?
8 Petroleum Wealth of the Owner State TOTAL In the Bank $135 Billion $ 66 Billion In the Ground* $ 69 Billion Known Conventional Oil Other Oil and Gas $45 Billion $24 Billion * Estimated Net Present Value of Future Petroleum Revenues
9 Petroleum Wealth Invest for Maximum Return In the Bank Risk vs Return In the Ground Long Term, Comprehensive Approach
10 How Much Can We Spend Today: UGF Maximum Sustainable Yield NEST EGG $135 Billion Multiply: MSY Draw Rate 4% (5%-1%) Equals: MSY Draw Minus: PF Dividend Plus: Non-Petroleum GF Revenues Unrestricted General Fund Maximum Sustainable Yield (FY2016) $5.4 Billion =($135*4%) $ 1.4 Billion $.5 Billion $ 4.5 Billion =($ $.5)
11 How Much Can We Spend Today: UGF Maximum Sustainable Yield A spending level based on current and projected future revenue streams which, if adopted now, could be maintained consistently long into the future--adjusted for inflation and population growth.
12 Maximum Sustainable Yield
13 Maximum Sustainable Yield: Nest Egg Growth
14 Maximum Sustainable Yield: A Target to Guide Spending Answer to the Saving Question Sustainable and Fair to All Generations Not an Spending Cap Supplemental Revenues pay for Higher Spending Flexible, yet Stable Incorporates Uncertainty Encourages Investment
15 Maximum Sustainable Yield: Arguments Against Get More from Petroleum We Can t Predict the Future Something Will Save Us Budget Cuts Will Hurt the Economy Investing is Better Than Saving What Has the Future Ever Done for Me I ll Be Gone Soon
16 Maximum Sustainable Yield: Implementation Manage financial assets for maximum long term return and protection from overspending (ex. POMV) Proactively participate in management of petroleum in the ground for maximum long term return Establish monitoring system to track Nest Egg value, set MSY target, and track progress towards sustainability (HB 136) Gradually transition to UGF Maximum Sustainable Yield level
17 State Budget History 2.0% real 4.5% real
18 State Fiscal Plan -- Part 2
19 State Fiscal Plan -- Part 2 PERMANENT FUND (June 30, 2014) $51.2 Non-Spendable Balance $45 Contributions $37.9 Unrealized Gain $ 7.1 Assigned Balance $6.2 STATUTORY NET INCOME $3.53 Dividend $1.24 Inflation Proofing $.55 General fund $.03 Remainder $1.72
20 Business As Usual: The Nest Egg Vanishes
21 Maximum Sustainable Yield: Mechanics (FY 2016) NEST EGG Oil & Gas Revenue $2.1 $5.0 Financial Earnings 4% Draw $5.4 $5.4 Nest Egg Cash Flow $1.7 Saving & Reinvestment Total Maximum Sustainable Yield
22 Maximum Sustainable Yield: Disposition (FY 2016) Total Maximum Sustainable Yield $1.4 $4.0 $5.4 Permanent Fund Dividend General Fund $4.0 GF Non Petroleum Revenues $.5 $4.5 GENERAL FUND MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD
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