A Generational Perspective on Living Standards: Where We ve Been and Prospects for the Future

Transcription

1 A Generational Perspective on Living Standards: Where We ve Been and Prospects for the Future Neil Howe and Diana Elliott April 2, 2015 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference Washington, DC

2 Google Ngram Mentions of Phrase Economic Progress Mentions per Googlebook Sentences 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Year 1966 Peak Poll Finds Widespread Economic Anxiety 76% of Respondents in WSJ/NBC Poll Fear Their Children's Generation Will Have Fewer Opportunities An All- Time High (Aug 5, 2014) Googlebooks Ngram Viewer ( 2015

3 $120,000 Alternative Measures of U.S. Standard of Living, , in Constant 2013 $* Median Family Income to 2013 $95, Dollars $70,000 $45,000 $20,000 Sources: SCF, Fed Bulletin (2013 and earlier years); CPS, Table F-11, Census (2015)

4 $95,000 Real Median Family Income by Bracket, from 1885 to 1994 Birth Cohort* $75, dollars $55, $35, $15, ** of Family Householder * Families only, at exact date birth cohort coincides with age bracket; all series deflated to 2013 dollars with CPI-U-RS ** Trended from values for all 65+ before 1987 Source: CPS, Table F-11, Census (2015)

5 Lifecycle Income for Half Generations, in Constant 2013 $* $80,000 $70, Dollars $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Early G.I. ( ) Late G.I. ( ) Early Silent ( ) Late Silent ( ) Early Boomer ( ) Late Boomer ( ) Early Gen-X ( ) Late Gen-X ( ) Millennial ( ) Source: IPUMS-CPS ( )

6 Lifecycle Income for Half Generations, Normalized to 100 Point Scale, in Constant 2013 $* 2013 Dollars - Normalized to 100 Point Scale Early G.I. ( ) Late G.I. ( ) Early Silent ( ) Late Silent ( ) Early Boomer ( ) Late Boomer ( ) Early Gen-X ( ) Late Gen-X ( ) Millennial ( ) Source: IPUMS-CPS ( )

7 $120,000 $95,000 Alternative Measures of U.S. Standard of Living, , in Constant 2013 $* Median Family Income to 2013 Median Household Net Worth to Dollars $70,000 $45,000 $20,000 Sources: SCF, Fed Bulletin (2013 and earlier years); CPS, Table F-11, Census (2015)

8 Real Median Family Net Worth, by : 1983 to 2013* 1983 under age 34 age age age age age $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250, Dollars Source: Survey of Consumer Finances, Fed (2014 and earlier

9 Average Net Worth and Composition of Assets and Liabilities of the Middle 60 Percent of the Wealth Distribution by Select 10-Year Groupings: 1989 and 2013* 2013 Dollars $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 housing assets property assets (incl car) financial assets retirement assets liquid assets other assets credit card debt education debt property debt (incl car) housing debt $0 -$50, net worth -$100,000 Source: SCF (1989 and 2013)

10 140 Recent American Generations Lifecycle Income for Early and Late G.I.s, Normalized to 100 Point Scale, in Constant 2013 $* Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of Dollars - Normalized to 100 point scale 120 G.I. ( ) World War I Great Depression Roaring 20s World War II Silent 100 ( ) Great Depression Postwar High TODAY AGE World 90 War & IIOVER SAMPLE MEMBERS Boom ( ) Postwar High 27% Consciousness average John Kennedy 80 difference Ronald Reagan Revolution Walt Disney Late G.I. Gen X ( ) Judy Garland Consciousness Early G.I. Culture Wars John Wayne Revolution 90s Boom 60 Walter Cronkite Millennial ( ?) Culture Wars Financial Crisis 90s Boom War on Terror Source: IPUMS-CPS ( )

11 140 Recent American Generations Lifecycle Income for Early and Late Silent, Normalized to 100 Point Scale, in Constant 2013 $* Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of Dollars - Normalized to 100 point scale 120 Late Silent G.I. ( ) World War I Great Early Depression Silent Roaring 20s World War II Silent 100 ( ) Great Depression Postwar High World War II Boom ( ) Postwar High Consciousness 80 TODAY AGE 72 TO 89 Revolution SAMPLE MEMBERS Gen X ( ) John McCain Consciousness Culture Wars Colin Powell Revolution 90s Boom 60 Nancy Pelosi Millennial (1982- Martin 2004?) Luther King, Culture Jr. Wars Financial Crisis Elvis Presley 90s Boom War on Terror Sandra Day O Connor Source: IPUMS-CPS ( )

12 Recent Lifecycle Income American for Early and Generations Late Boomers, TODAY AGE 54 TO 71 Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of- Gini Coefficients 2013 Dollars - Normalized to 100 point scale 0.55 Gini Coefficients for Half Generations, by Average Normalized to 100 Point Scale, in Constant 2013 $* SAMPLE MEMBERS Late Boomer 120 Bill & Hillary Clinton 0.5 G.I. ( ) World George War & I Laura Bush Great Depression Roaring Mitt Romney 20s World War II 0.45 Donald Trump Silent 100 ( ) Great Oprah Depression Winfrey 0.4 World Steve War Jobs II Postwar High Boom 0.35 ( ) Postwar High Consciousness 80 Late Silent ( ) Revolution 0.3 Gen X ( ) Consciousness Culture Wars Revolution Early Boomer Early G.I. ( ) Late G.I. ( ) Early Silent ( ) Early Boomer ( ) Late Boomer ( ) Early Gen-X ( ) Late Gen-X ( ) Millennial 90s Boom ( ) Millennial ( ?) Culture Wars Financial Crisis 90s Boom War on Terror * All All series series deflated to to dollars with with CPI-U-RS Source: IPUMS-CPS ( )

13 140 Recent American Generations Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of Dollars - Normalized to 100 point scale 120 TODAY AGE 33 TO 53 Early Xer G.I. ( ) World War I Great Depression SAMPLE Roaring MEMBERS 20s World War II Barack Obama Silent % -18% ( ) Chris Christie Great Depression Postwar High -24% Sheryl Sandberg World War II Michael Jordan Boom ( ) Nicole Kidman Late Xer Postwar High-33% Consciousness 80 Kurt Cobain Revolution Gen X ( ) Consciousness Culture Wars 60 Lifecycle Change Income in Real for Median Early and Household Late Xers, Net Normalized Worth, to 100 Point by : Scale, 2007 in Constant to 2010* 2013 $* 0% -40% Under -40% Revolution 90s Boom -55% Millennial -60% ( ?) Culture Wars Financial Crisis 90s Boom War on Terror % * All series Source: deflated SCF, Fed to 2013 Bulletin dollars (2007 with and CPI-U-RS 2010) Source: IPUMS-CPS ( )

14 140 Recent American Generations Lifecycle Income for Millennials, Normalized to 100 Point Scale, in Constant 2013 $* Generation (Born) Childhood Era Coming-of Dollars - Normalized to 100 point scale 120 G.I. ( ) World War I Great Depression Roaring 20s World War II TODAY AGE 10 TO 32 Silent 100 ( ) Great Depression Postwar High SAMPLE World MEMBERS War II Boom 80 Mark Zuckerberg ( ) LeBron Postwar James High Miranda Cosgrove Consciousness Revolution Gen X Michelle Wie ( ) Lady Gaga Consciousness Culture Wars Christopher Revolution Paolini 90s Boom 60 Millennials Millennial ( ?) Culture Wars Financial Crisis 90s Boom War on Terror Source: IPUMS-CPS ( )

15 A Generational Perspective: Some Concluding Remarks The declining generational trend in median affluence is not a new development. Inequality is on the rise and this too started with late Boomers. The relative affluence of today s elderly is historically unprecedented. Generation X (in our opinion) is currently in the greatest danger. Millennials will be helped not just by their better macro timing, but also by a positive generational shift in their attitudes and behaviors. The American Dream is re-imagined by each generation.

16 A Generational Perspective on Living Standards: Where We ve Been and Prospects for the Future Neil Howe and Diana Elliott April 2, 2015 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference Washington, DC