South Consulting - 7th Review Report - Annex 1: Progress to a New Constitution (Situation Analysis Survey)

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1 Seattle University School of Law Seattle University School of Law Digital Commons VII. Academic and Civil Society Analysis The Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission of Kenya South Consulting - 7th Review Report - Annex 1: Progress to a New Constitution (Situation Analysis Survey) Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission Follow this and additional works at: Recommended Citation Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission, "South Consulting - 7th Review Report - Annex 1: Progress to a New Constitution (Situation Analysis Survey)" (2010). VII. Academic and Civil Society Analysis This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the The Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission of Kenya at Seattle University School of Law Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in VII. Academic and Civil Society Analysis by an authorized administrator of Seattle University School of Law Digital Commons. For more information, please contact coteconor@seattleu.edu.

2 The Kenya National Dialogue and Reconciliation Monitoring Project Annex II: Progress to a new constitution May 2010 Survey Poll Methodology Dates of polling May 22 nd May 28 th 2010 Sample Size 6017 respondents Sampling methodology Universe Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS Recently registered voters by IIEC Data collection methodology Sampling error Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level +/-1.6 with a 95% confidence level 1

3 Findings May 2010 How confident are you that the ICC will prosecute senior people who perpetrated post election? By Total Not aware of the prosecution process, DK, 5% Not confident, 29% Very confident, 2 Confident, 37% 2

4 Please tell me whether you think the electronic voter registration will guarantee free and fair elections in future elections. By Total RTA, 1% DK, 15% No, 1 Yes, 68% In your opinion does your ethnic community have a problem getting along with other communities in Kenya? By Total, Setting and Provinces North Eastern Western Rift Valley Nyanza Eastern Coast Central Nairobi Urban Rural Total 4% 9% 9% 9% 15% Base n=6017 (All respondents) 0% 5% 15% 20% 25% 30% 3

5 In the last two months, have you heard hate speech from leaders in your area? By Total and Province North Eastern 0% Western Rift Valley 7% Nyanza Eastern 5% 5% Coast Central 4% Nairobi 5% Total 0% 5% 15% 20% How confident are you that the ICC will prosecute senior people who perpetrated post election? By Setting and Provinces Rural Urban Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western North Eastern 25% 28% 29% 25% 34% 27% 3 19% 2 15% 37% 38% 39% 30% 3 41% 39% 35% % 29% 28% 37% 20% 24% % 21% 3% 1% 1% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% 4

6 What do you think should be done to the rest of the suspected perpetrators of post election violence? By Total, Setting and Provinces 80% 70% Try them in a special tribunal Take them to the TJRC Try them in Kenyan Courts Forgiveness to promote unity 60% 50% 40% 30% 50% % 35% 35% 34% 33% % 35% 51% 31% 43% 34% % 31% 4 33% 20% 0% 1 11% 9% 8% 8% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 1% 9% Total Rural Urban Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley 15% 3% Western 11% 1% North Eastern If a senior politician from your ethnic group is put on trial for perpetrating post election violence, how are members of your community likely to react? By Total Protest against the arrest/trial of the politician, 13% RTA, 1% DK, 7% Violently attack members of other community, Do nothing, 3 Support the trial, 41% 5

7 If a senior politician from your ethnic group is put on trial for perpetrating post election violence, how are members of your community likely to react? By Total Rural Urban Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanz a Rift Valley Weste rn North Easter n Support the trial 39% 45% 49% 43% 47% 50% 3 29% 45% 45% Do nothing 33% 29% 23% 38% 30% 31% 34% 29% 34% 37% Protest against the arrest/trial of the politician Violently attack members of other community 13% 1 17% 7% 17% 19% 7% 8% 3% 4% 13% 3% 5% DK 7% 3% 5% 9% 7% 8% 9% 7% RTA 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% Were you displaced from your farm during post election violence? By Total, Gender and Setting % who said 'Yes' Urban 15% Rural 1 Male 13% Base n=1441 (Rift Valley Only ) Female 1 Total 13% 0% 5% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 6

8 What happened to the land where you were displaced from? By Total and Settings 70% 60% 50% 47% 40% 37% 34% Total Rural Urban 30% 20% 0% 24% 24% 23% 21% 19% 14% 3% 3% Base n=1441 (Rift Valley Only ) 9% 7% 5% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 8% Apart from yourself, do you know anyone who was displaced from their land? By Total RTA, 1% DK, 4% Yes, 47% No, 49% Base n=1441 (Rift Valley Only) 7

9 Familiarity with the proposed Draft How much do you know about the draft constitution? Nothing, 13% A lot, Something, 25% A little, 51% 8

10 What are the sources of what you know about the constitution? Radio 58% Television 43% Friends/relatives Print media 3 31% Personally read draft Religious leaders Politicians 19% 17% 17% Internet Professional associations Employer 1% 5% How much would you say you know about the draft constitution? By Gender and Setting % indicating know a lot/something about the draft % indicating know a lot/something about the draft 43% 41% 28% 33% Male Female Urban Rural 9

11 How much would you say you know about the draft constitution? By Province % indicating Know a lot/something about the draft 45% 39% 38% 3 34% 33% 31% 21% Nairobi Nyanza Western Eastern Central Rift Valley Coast North Eastern Views on the draft 10

12 When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution? By Total Undecided, 19% Will not Vote, 4% Yes to approve, 57% No to reject, 20% Reasons why you would vote against the proposed constitution The abortion clause 55% Inclusion of Kadhi courts 37% The land clause 3 Little or no information on the draft Need further amendments Issues around Devolution It doesn't benefit the common man No confidence on the draft The Bill of Rights Religious leaders are against the draft 4% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Base: n=1141 (those will vote NO) 11

13 What do you think will make it difficult for the YES side of the draft to win in the referendum? By Total and Religion Total Muslims Christians Contentious clauses Party politics Poor understanding of draft Influence of religious leaders Voter turn out Poor campaign strategy Indecisiveness Presence of two drafts in circulation Nothing Don't know/rta 8% 5% 3% 4% 3% 1% 1% 1% 9% 2 21% 19% 21% 18% 19% 18% 18% 27% 27% 0% 5% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% What do you think will make it difficult for the YES side of the draft to win in the referendum? By Setting and Province Rural Urban Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Wester n North Eastern Contentious clauses 27% 27% 25% 2 23% 2 27% 33% 3 21% Indecisiveness 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% Poor campaign strategy 4% 3% 4% 5% 1% 3% 4% 3% 4% 5% Influence of religious leaders 9% % 11% 5% 1 8% Party politics 2 20% 20% 21% 13% 18% 21% 25% 25% 23% Poor understanding of draft 11% 8% 9% 11% 9% 13% 7% 17% Presence of two drafts in circulation 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% Voter turn out 5% 4% 5% 3% 7% 4% 7% 8% Don't know/rta 11% 7% 4% 9% 21% 1 4% 11% 3% 1 Nothing % 19% 25% 19% 25% 11% 14% 1 12

14 What do you think will make it difficult for the NO side of the draft to win in the referendum? By Total and Religion Total Muslims Christians Unclear campaign agenda and strategy Party politics Lack of funds for the campaigns by No team 8% Majority of Kenyans want a new constitution 8% 8% 7% Opponent is strong 4% 7% The No team leaders are not trusted by public 1% The No team spreading hate speech amongst 0% 1% 5% Nothing 4% 5% Don't know/rta 27% 27% 27% 21% 15% % 1 23% 33% 2 0% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% What do you think will make it difficult for the NO side of the draft to win in the referendum? By Setting and Provinces Rural Urban Nairob Centra Coast Easter Nyanz Rift Weste North i l n a Valley rn Easter n Party politics 21% 2 24% 20% 1 19% 21% 25% 21% 1 Unclear campaign agenda and strategy 27% 28% 29% 30% 2 18% 34% 27% 30% 31% Lack of funds for the campaigns by No % 8% 18% 1 21% 1 19% team Majority of Kenyans want a new 7% 8% 9% 4% 1 1 4% constitution Their red colour symbol is showing signs 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% of danger which is The No team leaders are not trusted by 1% 1% 3% 1% 4% public The No team spreading hate speech 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% amongst communities Opponent is strong 7% 7% 5% 8% 5% 7% Voter turn out 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% Lack of enough draft copies for people 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% to read on their own High number of illiterate people unable 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% to read the draft Don't know/rta 24% 20% 1 19% 34% 28% 20% 25% 18% 30% Nothing 4% 5% 5% 4% 8% 1% 3% 3% 1% 13

15 Views on the draft When a referendum is held in August this year, will you vote YES to approve or NO to reject the draft constitution? Undecided, 19% Will not Vote, 4% Yes to approve, 57% No to reject, 20% 14

16 Support for the draft by Provinces. 88% 7 Yes to approve No to reject Undecided Will not vote 65% 61% 58% 54% 41% 29% 39% 33% 8% 4% 0% 14% 7% 18% 11% 7% 21% 20% 19% 20% 1 14% 15% 1 9% 9% 11% 8% North Eastern Nyanza Western Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Rift Valley How confident are you that the TJRC will: By Total Very confident Not very confident I am not aware of the commission RTA Somewhat confident Not confident at all Don't know Identify those involved in past violations 17% % 5% 5% 1% Promote healing and reconciliation amongst Kenyans 20% 27% 2 21% 4% 4% 0% Investigate past abuses of office by public officials 17% 25% 24% 24% 5% 4% 1% Promote peace and national unity 25% 29% 20% 18% 4% 4% 0% Resolve past violations of human rights 2 30% 19% 21% 4% 4% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 15

17 How confident are you that the TJRC will: By Total Rural Urban Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Weste rn North Eastern Resolve past violations of human rights 34% 1 4% 7% 4% 9% 9% 1 7% 1% Promote peace and national unity Investigate past abuses of office by public officials Promote healing and reconciliation amongst Kenyans Identify those involved in past violations 3 18% 5% 7% 5% 9% 9% 13% 0% 28% 14% 3% 5% 3% 7% 7% 4% 1% 31% 1 5% 5% 7% 8% 11% 5% 1% 2 13% 3% 5% 3% 7% 8% 9% 5% 1% 16