CONTENTS. The National Outlook 3. Regional Economic Indicators 5. (Quarterly Focus) Volunteer Labor in Missouri

Transcription

1 The Center for Economic and Business Research S OUTHEAST MISSOURI BUSINESS INDICATORS Spring 2016 Volume 17 No. 1 CONTENTS The National Outlook 3 Regional Economic Indicators 5 (Quarterly Focus) Volunteer Labor in Missouri 10 E X ECUTIVE SUMMARY The national economy experienced weak GDP growth at an annualized rate of 0.8% during the first quarter of However, starting with the second quarter of 2016, economic growth should improve to a rate between 2.0% and 2.5% for the rest of The labor market continued to add jobs at an average rate of 200,000 new jobs per month. Currently, the national unemployment rate is 5%. Similar to the last few years, the inflation rate remained below 2% on an annual basis. Lower energy prices and a relatively strong value of the US dollar compared to other currencies have helped keep inflation low. As the effects of these two transitory factors diminish, the rate of inflation is expected to rise slightly over the next year. With the exception of the closing of Noranda s aluminum smelter in New Madrid, the economy of Southeast Missouri experienced growth during the first quarter of Compared to the first quarter of 2015, employment and retail sales rose by 2.1% and 0.8%, respectively. The current unemployment rate for the region stands at 5.5%. The most recent data on personal income suggested that income levels grew by 3.5% during the year

2 Southeast Missouri Business Indicators Center for Economic & Business Research Donald L. Harrison College of Business Dean of the Donald L. Harrison College of Business Dr. Gerald McDougall Associate Dean Dr. Gary Johnson Director, CEBR Dr. David Yaskewich For further information about the Center for Economic & Business Research and about southeast Missouri, visit the Center s website: Southeast Missouri Business Indicators is a quarterly publication of the Center for Economic & Business Research. It is devoted to disseminating and analyzing basic economic data for the region of Southeast Missouri. Permission is given to reproduce the contents of this publication, provided that proper attribution is given. The information contained in this newsletter comes from government sources and is generally believed to be accurate. Forecasts are meant to give an impression of future economic activity but are not intended to impart recommendations for investment purposes. All forecasts and commentary are the products of the Center for Economic & Business Research and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Southeast Missouri State University. cebr@semo.edu For information regarding the Donald L. Harrison College of Business, visit the College s website: 2

3 The National Outlook: Another First Quarter with Sluggish Growth, But Faster Growth is Expected This Year During the first quarter of 2016, the US economy experienced weak growth in production, solid improvements in the labor market, and low inflation. In the previous two years, the first quarter has been associated with relatively weak growth in real GDP compared to other periods of the year and the overall long-term trend in US growth. While the change in real GDP was -0.9% and +0.6% in the first quarters of 2014 and 2015, the economy grew by +2.0% to +2.5% each year. A similar scenario has been forecasted for The Bureau of Economic Analysis initially reported a first quarter estimate for real GDP growth at +0.5%, which was later revised up to +0.8%. The primary components of expenditures that contributed to growth in the first quarter were personal consumption, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. A factor contributing to gains in consumer spending and the housing market was a strong labor market, which is at or beyond full employment. However, areas of weakness included nonresidential fixed investment, inventory investment, and exports. Despite the unimpressive GDP estimate for the first quarter, the economy is expected to grow between +2.0% to +2.5% over the next 12 months. The national unemployment rate during the first quarter had an average value of 4.9%, which inched downward from the previous quarter. The health care, retail trade, and food services industries experienced significant gains in employment while the mining sector witnessed the largest decline. On average, the labor market created 200,000 new jobs in each month of 2016, which is consistent with the rate of job creation that occurred during the previous two years. Currently, the civilian labor force participation rate is a little below 63%, which remains lower than its normal rate prior to the Great Recession. Over the next year, the national labor market is expected to remain strong with the unemployment rate staying below 5%. The rate of inflation was subdued by low energy prices and remained below 2% during the first quarter. Over the last 12 months, the overall level of prices for all items, including food and energy, rose by a little over 1%. However, if food and energy items were excluded, core inflation was a little over 2.0%. Declines in energy prices offset some of the increases in other prices. While price increases were spread out broadly across most items in the Consumer Price Index, significant price increases were measured in the categories of shelter 3

4 and medical care. Another factor contributing to the low rate of inflation was the relatively strong value of the US dollar compared to foreign currencies. Forecasts for future rates of inflation are slightly higher due to expected growth in both energy prices and non-energy imports. Industrial production rose in January, but fell in February and March. Overall, there was a net decline in industrial production by 2.2% during the first quarter, which followed a 3.3% decline in the fourth quarter of Industries that experienced reductions in production included machinery manufacturing, apparel and leather manufacturing, mining, and electricity production. Forecasts over the next year predict a reversal in the declines in industrial production that were experienced in months. Overall industrial production is expected to grow by 1.9% over the next year. Compared to the end of 2015, construction activity on new housing units was somewhat flat. Housing starts during the first quarter were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.15 million. This rate of new home construction was 1% higher than the previous quarter and 16% higher than the first quarter of However, housing starts still remain low compared to the rates experienced during most of the 1990s and 2000s. The estimate for new building permits, which can be considered an indicator of future construction activity, declined slightly from 1.22 million to 1.14 million. Forecasts for housing starts over the next year show a little more optimism as they are expected to increase gradually in the presence of high employment and low interest rates. Interest rates remain at very low levels and are expected to stay low in the foreseeable future. During the first quarter, three-month Treasury bills had interest rates at 0.3%. Forecasts suggest that this interest rate will gradually rise from 0.3% to 0.8% over the next year. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25% to 0.50%. Later this year, the FOMC is expected to increase this target range to 0.5% to 0.75% at either its meeting on June 14th- 15th or July 26th-27th. As long as the annual rate of inflation remains below 2%, the FOMC is expected to keep the federal funds rate at historically low levels. 4

5 Regional Economic Data: Southeast Missouri Summary 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I Bollinger Employment 5,560 5,343 5,408 5,369 5,499 5,470 % Change from last quarter +4.7% 3.9% +1.2% 0.7% +2.4% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 5.3% 6.9% 5.8% 5.3% 4.4% 5.5% Personal Income $365,137 $358,213 $362,607 $365,784 $370,319 % Change over 12 months +6.2% +2.3% +2.2% +2.3% +1.4% Retail Sales $13,016 $12,856 $12,472 $13,589 $14,193 $12,711 Total over 12 months $50,797 $50,882 $51,031 $51,933 $53,110 $52,965 Butler Employment 17,945 17,924 18,310 17,796 18,344 18,162 % Change from last quarter +2.6% 0.1% +2.2% 2.8% +3.1% 1.0% Unemployment Rate 6.4% 7.2% 6.1% 6.2% 5.1% 5.9% Personal Income $1,463,497 $1,463,891 $1,482,113 $1,477,512 $1,504,864 % Change over 12 months 3.8% +2.7% +2.7% +2.4% +2.8% Retail Sales $157,310 $144,885 $152,510 $151,925 $159,767 $146,793 Total over 12 months $643,618 $649,757 $604,786 $606,629 $609,086 $610,995 Cape Girardeau Employment 39,603 39,118 39,552 38,933 39,756 39,921 % Change from last quarter +4.0% 1.2% +1.1% 1.6% +2.1% +0.4% Unemployment Rate 4.2% 4.8% 4.6% 4.3% 3.5% 4.2% Personal Income $3,054,022 $3,023,754 $3,053,597 $3,065,120 $3,101,238 % Change over 12 months +7.3% +2.8% +2.5% +1.7% +1.5% Retail Sales $365,600 $325,697 $339,419 $355,139 $393,653 $336,776 Total over 12 months $1,376,308 $1,386,010 $1,361,065 $1,385,855 $1,413,908 $1,424,987 Carter Employment 2,327 2,268 2,382 2,400 2,310 2,277 % Change from last quarter 1.3% 2.5% +5.0% +0.8% 3.8% 1.4% Unemployment Rate 7.5% 9.6% 7.5% 7.0% 5.8% 8.6% Personal Income $176,885 $177,354 $179,137 $180,158 $180,553 % Change over 12 months 1.9% +3.1% +2.1% +2.7% +2.1% Retail Sales $9,828 $9,052 $11,211 $11,903 $9,589 $8,900 Total over 12 months $41,348 $41,177 $41,783 $41,994 $41,755 $41,603 Crawford Employment 10,200 10,130 10,511 10,468 10,436 10,385 % Change from last quarter +1.5% 0.7% +3.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 6.4% 7.6% 6.3% 5.5% 4.8% 6.1% Personal Income $863,541 $863,654 $865,653 $872,292 $879,606 % Change over 12 months 0.9% +3.8% +3.9% +4.2% +3.6% Retail Sales $44,799 $40,384 $44,979 $51,002 $46,690 $40,764 Total over 12 months $184,449 $181,495 $180,216 $181,164 $183,055 $183,435 5 Note: Personal Income and Retail Sales are in thousands of dollars.

6 Regional Economic Data: Southeast Missouri Summary 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I Dent Employment 5,830 5,899 6,096 6,011 6,023 5,850 % Change from last quarter +0.2% +1.2% +3.3% 1.4% +0.2% 2.9% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 6.6% 5.9% 5.8% 5.1% 5.6% Personal Income $486,540 $486,960 $493,360 $497,232 $501,664 % Change over 12 months +2.1% +3.0% +3.2% +3.1% +3.1% Retail Sales $36,055 $33,837 $36,111 $36,094 $35,950 $33,884 Total over 12 months $142,547 $141,890 $141,978 $142,097 $141,992 $142,039 Dunklin Employment 12,192 12,249 12,373 12,015 12,542 12,401 % Change from last quarter +5.0% +0.5% +1.0% 2.9% +4.4% 1.1% Unemployment Rate 7.5% 9.2% 8.3% 7.7% 6.6% 8.5% Personal Income $1,091,917 $1,095,026 $1,104,916 $1,111,689 $1,125,806 % Change over 12 months +0.2% +3.7% +3.3% +3.2% +3.1% Retail Sales $74,376 $68,786 $70,378 $70,207 $73,721 $67,061 Total over 12 months $284,427 $285,531 $285,228 $283,746 $283,091 $281,367 Franklin Employment 49,281 49,454 50,649 50,717 50,963 50,714 % Change from last quarter +0.6% +0.4% +2.4% +0.1% +0.5% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 5.1% 6.3% 5.3% 4.7% 3.8% 5.0% Personal Income $4,026,807 $4,023,029 $4,101,883 $4,149,396 $4,181,386 % Change over 12 months +4.0% +3.3% +3.5% +3.6% +3.8% Retail Sales $277,513 $246,309 $285,261 $279,735 $288,970 $255,798 Total over 12 months $1,044,600 $1,057,423 $1,073,321 $1,088,819 $1,100,275 $1,109,764 Gasconade Employment 7,405 7,279 7,508 7,426 7,581 7,474 % Change from last quarter +3.4% 1.7% +3.1% 1.1% +2.1% 1.4% Unemployment Rate 4.0% 5.3% 4.4% 4.0% 3.2% 4.5% Personal Income $558,186 $556,714 $564,406 $570,067 $574,609 % Change over 12 months +4.8% +3.3% +3.2% +3.4% +2.9% Retail Sales $45,020 $37,949 $41,588 $43,874 $44,131 $37,406 Total over 12 months $165,309 $166,771 $167,290 $168,431 $167,541 $166,999 Iron Employment 3,553 3,641 3,636 3,531 3,577 3,629 % Change from last quarter +2.6% +2.5% 0.1% 2.9% +1.3% +1.5% Unemployment Rate 8.0% 9.3% 8.4% 7.6% 6.0% 7.5% Personal Income $325,034 $323,276 $327,215 $331,155 $333,835 % Change over 12 months +7.9% +2.2% +2.4% +2.7% +2.7% Retail Sales $19,779 $18,749 $19,399 $21,086 $19,584 $19,204 Total over 12 months $78,335 $77,952 $78,067 $79,014 $78,819 $79,273 Note: Personal Income and Retail Sales are in thousands of dollars. 6

7 Jefferson Regional Economic Data: Southeast Missouri Summary 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I Employment 109, , , , , ,462 % Change from last quarter +0.3% +0.8% +2.4% +0.2% +0.3% 0.4% Unemployment Rate 5.1% 6.1% 5.1% 4.5% 3.8% 4.9% Personal Income $8,341,622 $8,390,313 $8,571,270 $8,684,142 $8,720,720 % Change over 12 months +3.8% +3.9% +4.0% +4.2% +4.5% Retail Sales $504,264 $483,189 $508,807 $525,639 $525,228 $481,144 Madison Total over 12 months $1,959,305 $1,980,670 $1,992,775 $2,021,898 $2,042,863 $2,040,818 Employment 5,237 5,197 5,315 5,220 5,322 5,300 % Change from last quarter +2.7% 0.8% +2.3% 1.8% +2.0% 0.4% Unemployment Rate 5.1% 6.5% 6.3% 5.9% 4.6% 5.7% Personal Income $380,668 $381,518 $386,634 $389,353 $393,353 % Change over 12 months +1.0% +0.2% +1.3% +0.7% +1.0% Retail Sales $24,374 $23,521 $24,536 $24,547 $24,438 $23,985 Total over 12 months $94,082 $94,645 $95,811 $96,978 $97,041 $97,506 Mississippi Employment 5,870 5,924 6,041 5,933 6,108 6,026 % Change from last quarter +2.5% +0.9% +2.0% 1.8% +2.9% 1.3% Unemployment Rate 6.7% 6.7% 6.1% 5.9% 4.7% 6.3% Personal Income $451,577 $456,742 $461,853 $463,639 $470,344 % Change over 12 months +3.7% +3.7% +4.7% +3.5% +4.2% Retail Sales $20,964 $20,517 $22,423 $22,891 $19,827 $18,884 Total over 12 months $87,282 $87,621 $87,129 $86,795 $85,658 $84,025 New Madrid Employment 7,914 8,038 8,205 8,028 8,355 8,368 % Change from last quarter +3.6% +1.6% +2.1% 2.2% +4.1% +0.2% Unemployment Rate 6.4% 6.9% 6.4% 6.2% 5.2% 7.0% Personal Income $622,737 $620,698 $627,698 $632,230 $636,425 % Change over 12 months +3.8% +2.2% +2.2% +2.3% +2.2% Retail Sales $76,649 $73,402 $75,704 $75,272 $76,557 $70,820 Total over 12 months $293,687 $296,068 $298,437 $301,027 $300,935 $298,353 Pemiscot Employment 6,502 6,509 6,552 6,396 6,570 6,595 % Change from last quarter +3.5% +0.1% +0.7% 2.4% +2.7% +0.4% Unemployment Rate 7.5% 9.3% 9.7% 9.3% 7.9% 9.2% Personal Income $594,769 $595,599 $600,684 $604,878 $607,391 % Change over 12 months 7.7% +2.8% +2.4% +2.4% +2.1% Retail Sales $32,894 $34,017 $32,727 $34,045 $32,093 $31,230 Total over 12 months $131,742 $132,914 $132,864 $133,683 $132,882 $130,095 Note: Personal Income and Retail Sales are in thousands of dollars. 7

8 Perry Regional Economic Data: Southeast Missouri Summary 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I Employment 9,905 9,879 10,023 9,813 10,158 9,961 % Change from last quarter +2.3% 0.3% +1.5% 2.1% +3.5% 1.9% Unemployment Rate 4.3% 5.0% 4.4% 4.1% 3.2% 4.0% Personal Income $658,763 $659,924 $669,210 $669,297 $678,680 % Change over 12 months +1.6% +3.2% +3.2% +2.8% +3.0% Retail Sales $68,793 $59,847 $64,620 $64,089 $69,355 $61,096 Total over 12 months $254,158 $254,620 $256,095 $257,349 $257,911 $259,160 Reynolds Employment 2,442 2,479 2,672 2,567 2,555 2,504 % Change from last quarter +1.3% +1.5% +7.8% 3.9% 0.5% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 7.5% 8.4% 7.2% 6.5% 5.6% 7.0% Personal Income $199,609 $199,574 $202,003 $204,126 $205,865 % Change over 12 months +4.4% +3.2% +3.3% +3.3% +3.1% Retail Sales $13,176 $10,565 $13,918 $16,940 $12,831 $11,807 Ripley Total over 12 months $51,289 $50,681 $52,469 $54,599 $54,253 $55,496 Employment 5,182 4,969 5,063 4,873 5,106 5,017 % Change from last quarter +4.9% 4.1% +1.9% 3.8% +4.8% 1.7% Unemployment Rate 7.2% 9.1% 8.1% 7.9% 6.6% 7.3% Personal Income $404,383 $402,389 $407,913 $410,573 $415,904 % Change over 12 months +1.3% 0.5% +1.4% +0.7% +1.3% Retail Sales $20,875 $19,544 $19,780 $19,814 $19,380 $19,129 Scott Total over 12 months $81,459 $80,888 $80,254 $80,012 $78,518 $78,103 Employment 18,859 19,172 19,313 19,018 19,375 19,465 % Change from last quarter +2.3% +1.7% +0.7% 1.5% +1.9% +0.5% Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.9% 5.4% 5.3% 4.5% 5.5% Personal Income $1,534,871 $1,535,547 $1,554,709 $1,567,526 $1,581,193 % Change over 12 months +4.4% +2.9% +3.0% +3.1% +3.0% Retail Sales $86,737 $83,816 $87,592 $94,440 $90,773 $82,154 Total over 12 months $350,507 $348,571 $348,116 $352,586 $356,622 $354,959 Ste. Genevieve Employment 8,574 8,572 8,748 8,667 8,762 8,659 % Change from last quarter +1.4% +0.0% +2.1% 0.9% +1.1% 1.2% Unemployment Rate 5.0% 6.3% 5.9% 5.1% 3.9% 4.9% Personal Income $635,237 $637,421 $643,826 $642,062 $652,984 % Change over 12 months 1.9% +3.5% +3.1% +2.8% +2.8% Retail Sales $44,377 $39,873 $43,275 $47,203 $43,221 $38,732 Total over 12 months $172,386 $171,472 $173,116 $174,729 $173,572 $172,431 Note: Personal Income and Retail Sales are in thousands of dollars. 8

9 Regional Economic Data: Southeast Missouri Summary 2014 IV 2015 I 2015 II 2015 III 2015 IV 2016 I St. Francois Employment 24,541 24,759 25,503 24,939 25,301 25,174 % Change from last quarter +1.1% +0.9% +3.0% 2.2% +1.5% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 6.3% 7.3% 6.3% 5.9% 4.9% 5.9% Personal Income $2,025,782 $2,031,418 $2,060,636 $2,076,979 $2,098,800 % Change over 12 months +1.0% +0.3% +1.4% +0.8% +1.1% Retail Sales $174,458 $167,507 $187,053 $184,521 $187,698 $174,852 Total over 12 months $676,109 $681,053 $697,846 $713,539 $726,779 $734,124 Stoddard Employment 12,259 12,248 12,538 12,504 12,693 12,531 % Change from last quarter +2.1% 0.1% +2.4% 0.3% +1.5% 1.3% Unemployment Rate 6.6% 8.1% 6.6% 6.1% 5.5% 6.9% Personal Income $1,057,976 $1,058,985 $1,071,990 $1,081,230 $1,090,476 % Change over 12 months +3.2% +3.0% +3.1% +3.1% +3.1% Retail Sales $70,157 $64,671 $66,425 $66,691 $67,315 $62,467 Total over 12 months $271,364 $271,410 $267,882 $267,945 $265,103 $262,898 Washington Employment 9,729 9,784 10,099 9,911 10,130 10,127 % Change from last quarter +2.8% +0.6% +3.2% 1.9% +2.2% +0.0% Unemployment Rate 6.7% 8.4% 6.7% 6.0% 5.3% 7.0% Personal Income $705,815 $708,035 $722,568 $723,624 $735,567 % Change over 12 months +7.8% +3.6% +4.2% +4.5% +4.2% Retail Sales $35,638 $35,619 $36,846 $38,004 $36,967 $35,100 Total over 12 months $139,391 $141,454 $143,337 $146,106 $147,435 $146,917 Wayne Employment 5,216 5,362 5,530 5,473 5,515 5,516 % Change from last quarter +1.5% +2.8% +3.1% 1.0% +0.8% +0.0% Unemployment Rate 6.5% 7.2% 5.8% 5.5% 4.7% 5.4% Personal Income $377,689 $378,176 $383,378 $386,980 $391,260 % Change over 12 months +2.7% +3.5% +3.8% +3.7% +3.6% Retail Sales $19,466 $18,366 $20,280 $20,556 $19,652 $18,787 Total over 12 months $77,920 $77,743 $78,255 $78,668 $78,853 $79,275 Southeast Missouri Employment 385, , , , , ,991 % Change from last quarter +1.7% +0.3% +2.2% 1.0% +1.3% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 5.5% 6.6% 5.7% 5.2% 4.4% 5.5% Personal Income $30,940,969 $30,980,606 $31,444,734 $31,748,208 $32,036,989 % Change over 12 months +3.5% +3.4% +3.5% +3.5% +3.5% Retail Sales $2,236,116 $2,072,960 $2,217,314 $2,269,204 $2,311,579 $2,089,484 Total over 12 months $8,652,148 $8,708,696 $8,689,151 $8,795,594 $8,871,057 $8,887,581 Note: Personal Income and Retail Sales are in thousands of dollars. 9

10 V O LU N T E ER LABOR IN MISSOURI Roughly 25% of the US population engages in some type of volunteer work each year. According to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 62.6 million people participated in volunteer work during the 12-month period between September 2014 and September Unlike paid work for a wage or salary, unpaid volunteer work could create a free-rider problem. If an employee at a job fails to perform, that worker would lose wage or salary income. However, a similar incentive is absent in volunteer work. While some people may value the act of volunteering itself, others may be indifferent about who performs the volunteer work. In other words, a person may value and benefit from the services provided by volunteers regardless of whether that person actually contributes to the volunteer effort. Since volunteer work can be classified as what economists call a public good, the nature of volunteer work can differ significantly from paid work. This section provides a profile of the supply of volunteer labor in the state of Missouri. The primary focus is on two dimensions of volunteerism: (1) the rate of volunteerism and (2) the intensity of volunteerism. The rate of volunteerism simply measures the percentage of the population that engages in volunteer work within a year. This outcome will be reported for various subcategories of Missouri s population based on age, educational attainment, employment status, race, ethnicity, and marital status. In addition, the intensity of volunteerism will consider the number of organizations for which people volunteer time in a given year as well as the overall amount of time they contribute to each organization. The main findings of this report suggest that the rate of volunteerism in Missouri is slightly higher than the national rate. Furthermore, the likelihood of volunteering is highest among those who are between ages 35 to 54, college educated, employed part time, and have children present in the household. Within the sample of volunteers in Missouri, most volunteered for only one nonprofit organization. The median volunteer contributed 40 hours of volunteer work per year. Data All data in this report were obtained from the 2011 through 2015 releases of the September Volunteer Supplement from the Current Population Survey (CPS), which was conducted by the BLS. During each year of the survey, respondents were asked whether they participated in volunteer activities since September 1st of the previous year. All information on volunteer behavior were selfreported by survey participants. Two advantages in using the September supplement to the CPS to study volunteer behavior are that it has a large sample size and is nationally representative. The CPS interviews approximately 60,000 households each month. For this report, the September supplement to the CPS included responses from roughly 150,000 individuals each year (or over 750,000 individuals for the entire 5- year period of the study). In this sample, there were 11,975 individuals from the state of Missouri. Besides a binary question on whether people volunteer, the September supplement to the CPS also asks participants questions on the intensity of volunteer work for up to seven nonprofit organizations. Intensity measures include the number of volunteer hours worked for each organization, the total number of volunteer hours worked at all organizations, and the number of weeks spent volunteering throughout the year. It also is possible to observe the type of organization for which someone volunteered time. For example, the national data suggest that larger shares of the population volunteer at religious organizations and organizations related to education and youth services. 10

11 Table 1: Rates of Volunteerism by Population Category in Missouri Population Category % Volunteer Full sample Religious organizations Secular organizations Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages Ages 65 and above Less than high school diploma High school diploma Some college, no degree Associate s degree Bachelor s degree Graduate degree Employed Employed, full-time Employed, part-time Unemployed Full-time student White Black Hispanic Immigrant, non-citizen Has children under age Female Married Veteran Results The Rate of Volunteerism Rates of volunteerism for subcategories of Missouri s population are reported in Table 1. For the full sample, 29.1% of Missouri residents engaged in some type of volunteer activity. Volunteer work for religious organizations was popular with 13.1% of the population (or 45% of volunteers) contributing their time. Sixteen percent of the sample volunteered for secular organizations, which could have included non-profit organizations with services related to educational support, recreation, arts, environmental or animal care, health care, immigrant/refugee assistance, professional development, labor unions, politics, or public safety. When categorized by age groups, volunteerism was highest among the middle-aged population. Individuals in the 35-to-44 and 45-to- 54 age groups had volunteer rates at 34.6% and 33.8%, respectively. Younger (age 34 and below) and older (age 55 and above) age groups both volunteered at rates below the national average. At first, it may seem counterintuitive for people with higher earnings capacity and in their prime working ages to participate more in unpaid work. The relatively higher value of their time may lead one to expect lower rates of volunteerism. However, one potential explanation for this finding could be that individuals in their prime working ages are more likely to be asked to volunteer for a cause by their employers or children. An alternative explanation could be that volunteer work, like paid work, involves some endowment of resources. Just like a paid worker needs reliable transportation to commute to a job and appropriate work clothing or materials, similar items may be needed by volunteer workers. If so, individuals earning more money in the labor market would be expected to volunteer more of their time to unpaid work. The descriptive statistics in Table 1 provide inconclusive evidence for either of the theories mentioned above. While volunteerism rises with educational attainment, full-time workers volunteer less than part-time workers. Individuals with a high 11

12 school diploma or less volunteer at a rate of 20% whereas college graduates volunteer at rates exceeding 40%. Meanwhile, employed individuals volunteer more than the unemployed, but part-time workers volunteer more than full-time workers by 11 percentage points. The categories based on race and ethnicity indicate that the white population volunteers at a higher rate than racial and ethnic minority groups. While some of this disparity may be due to income disparities, it also is possible that individuals are more likely to volunteer in communities with populations with characteristics that are similar to them. Since the data in the September supplement does not identify every geographic area within Missouri, it is not possible to test for the latter hypothesis. Other population categories included in the CPS are the presence of children in the household, gender, marital status, and veteran status. Compared to the overall population in Missouri, those with children volunteer at a high rate (37.6%) as do women (33%) and married people (34%). While veterans volunteer at a rate below the state average (24.8%), this is consistent with the age patterns observed earlier. If volunteer rates were adjusted for age differences, the likelihood of volunteering would be similar for veterans and non-veterans. The Intensity of Volunteerism Table 2 shows rates of volunteerism based on the number of organizations for which individuals contribute time. Among those who volunteer, most people contribute time only to one organization. In Missouri, 20.6% of the population (or 70.8% of volunteers) volunteer for one non-profit organization only. Much smaller shares of Missouri s population volunteered for two organizations (5.3%) or more than two organizations (3.1%). In addition to the number of nonprofit organizations for which one contributes time, the amount of time contributed is another measure of the intensity of volunteer activity. Table 3 shows median values for intensity measures based on the Missouri and national samples. In Missouri, the median number of total volunteer hours given to all organizations was 40 hours per year. Among the main organizations for which individuals contributed time, the median number of volunteer hours in Missouri was 35 hours per year. The median number of weeks spent volunteering throughout the year was 8 weeks. Compared to the median values for the overall US, the intensity of volunteer activity in Missouri appeared somewhat lower. Table 2: Rates of Volunteerism Based on the Number of Organizations Receiving Support Number of organizations % of Missouri sample % of National sample Do not volunteer Volunteer for one organization Volunteer for two organizations Volunteer for more than two organizations Table 3: Median Values for Volunteer-Intensity Measures Frequency of volunteer activity Missouri sample National sample Total hours for all organizations Total hours for the main organization Total number of weeks per year

13 Table 4: Alternative Measures of Civic Engagement Other types of civic engagement % of Missouri sample % of National sample Volunteered time to a nonprofit organization Attended public meetings Worked with others in neighborhood to fixed a problem Donated money, assets, or property worth $25 or more Alternative Measures of Civic Engagement While volunteer work can generate services to local communities, other forms of civic engagement can either be a substitute for or complement of unpaid labor. The September supplement to the CPS also asks questions about whether individuals attended public meetings in their communities, worked with neighbors to fix a community problem, or donated $25 or more in money, assets, or property to a nonprofit organization. Table 4 shows the proportion of respondents who engaged in each activity. For comparison, the rate of volunteerism shown earlier in Table 1 is reported again. One observation that can be made is that individuals are more likely to contribute money than time. While 7.9% attended public meetings in Missouri and 9.1% worked with others in their neighborhood to address a problem, 53.7% donated $25 or more. In other words, almost twice as many people donated money or assets than had volunteered their time. Conclusion This report provided a profile of the supply of volunteer labor in Missouri. Based on the most recent five years of data from the September supplement to the CPS, it was found that 29.1% of the population in Missouri participated in some form of unpaid volunteer work. Volunteering for religious organizations was the most common type of organization for which volunteer services were provided. Adults in their prime working ages (35 to 54), those with college degrees, part-time workers, and parents of children under age 18 were the population groups that were most likely to volunteer within a year. While most people in Missouri volunteered for only one non-profit organization, the median volunteer contributed 40 hours of unpaid work per year. While this section provided useful background information on Missouri s supply of volunteer labor, it was not without limitations. For instance, since all data on volunteer behavior was self-reported, social desirability bias may have caused some individuals to overstate their contributions to nonprofit organizations. In addition, like many labor market indicators, large differences in volunteer activity are expected to occur across regions of the state. Future studies should re-examine the supply of volunteer labor for smaller geographic areas, such as counties. Further work also could address whether the current mix of donating time and money is efficient. This would depend on the productivity of volunteer workers and how efficiently nonprofit organizations utilize cash donations. 13